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We are at my homestate track of Sonoma this weekend for the 16th Sprint Cup Series race of the 2016 season! Jeff Nathans (who usually write up this post) wasn't available this weekend, so I will been chosen to take over his timeslot. Anyhow, there were two practice sessions on Friday afternoon and then qualifying on Saturday. Of the two practice sessions, I put more stock into the first session than the second because of track conditions to being more similar. Also most teams focused on qualifying in the final session. I personally think Sonoma is a track that requires luck more than anything. I fully expect strategies to come into play and most likely be a heavy factor in who eventually goes to victory lane. Below I have I put together my version of the Fantasy Nascar Update. Instead of breaking them down into grouping (as Jeff does), I have decided to make a straight up top 12 list. Since a lot of people play Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I will list my Grouping Tier rankings at the bottom. Also you can view my Final Rankings (full-list) for Sonoma by clicking here.
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is my top fantasy pick this weekend for many reasons, but his recent track history is what makes him stands out more than anything. Since winning with Penske in 2011, he have been impressive here. Over the past 5 races, he has 4 Top 5 finishes at this track and probably should have finished top 5 again in 2014 but things didn't quite work out for him. Overall, he haven't finished worse than 12th place since the 2011 season at Sonoma. Not only does he have a great track record, but he been near top of the speed charts on both Friday and Saturday. On Friday, Kurt Busch was very fast and brother Kyle said he was among the fastest in the first practice session. Dale Jr even tweeted a graphic that basically said the exact same thing. In race-trim, I thought he easily among the top 5 drivers. Then on Saturday, he went out and qualified in the 4th position and will roll off from there on Sunday afternoon. I really like what Kurt brings to the table this weekend as a fantasy pick. Not only because of his track record and solid weekend so far, but he also been the most-consistent driver in the series this season. Usually he is a top 10 potential driver, but I think he will be more than that when the checkers waves at Sonoma though.
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards stood out on Friday as one of the drivers to beat, I thought he was very good overall. More than a couple people in the garage mentioned that as well. And nobody is really that surprised that he been fast. Carl went to victory lane for the first time at Sonoma in 2014 with RFR. But that just icing on the cake, as he been quite good on the road courses for a few years prior to that. Over the previous 5 Sonoma races (2011-2015), he have finished 3rd or better in 3 of 5 races. The other two finishes have been 21st and 40th though. He DNFed here last season, but that was because he got wrecked. Another thing Carl have going for him? He have only qualified inside the top 5 twice at Sonoma (2013 and 2014) and both times he finished inside the top 3. He is starting from the pole on Sunday and the JGR Toyotas seems to have a lot of speed this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Carl went back to victory lane here!
3. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from 15th place, but I have no worries about him though. He been very good at Sonoma in the past and was strong in practice on Friday as well. In the first session, I thought he among the best of them and his team really were encouraged by his lap times too. Johnson said he loves Sonoma because how challenging it is, which would explain why he has a Series-high 7 straight Top 10 finishes at Sonoma. More impressive that 6 of 7 have ended in 7th or better. The Driver of the #48 car haven't exactly been super-consistent over the past month or so this season, but I think he will be a major threat on Sunday afternoon. I am not worried one bit about his starting positon, he will easily make his way inside the top 10. Probably before first-round of pit stops have even started. Remember last season at Sonoma? Started 13th and was picking them off left and right and led 45 laps to an 6th place finish. Another thing I like? He have improved his finishing position over his last three starts. 9th in 2013, 7th in 2014 and 6th in 2015.
4. AJ Dinger - Part of me thinks AJ Dinger gonna be tough to beat, then the other part of me thinks I have him ranked too high. And honestly I get the feeling, Dinger will be a heavily debated fantasy pick. Some will trust him from the 2nd starting position and use him, and others will remember the last two Sonoma races. Personally, I wasn't blown away in practice by him. I thought he was pretty good in race-trim but nothing near what we are use to out of him at Sonoma. However, I think he was sandbagging it a little too. So it hard to say how good he really is, but history says he will be a contender at Sonoma. But for whatever it means, the 47 team have been much faster this season than it was last season. So maybe that will translate to better results, just a thought.
5. Martin Truex Jr - Truex have been bad fast all season long, but he haven't had much luck though. I think the 78 have a car capable of finishing inside the top 5, but I think that will depend on if lady luck is willing to work with him. The 78 car was solid in Friday's first session and showed top 5 speed overall. But looking at his track record, outside of his win in 2013 he haven't really done too much at Sonoma. He got wrecked here last season for anyone that cannot remember. Truex is a pretty good road course racer, but most of his good results have came at the other track (Watkin Glenn). Based on practice, I would say roll with him as he should be a contender (like most weekend this season). But I wouldn't be shocked if something went wrong for him though. That how his season have been more often than not.
6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starting deep in the field (think like 30th place), but his team was pretty happy about his car in racetrim on Friday afternoon. I thought he was one of the better cars overall and solid on the long runs. He was top 5 good or very close to it based on everything I saw from lap times to interviews. Not to mention, Harvick have been really good at Sonoma since joining the 4 car in 2014. He have been easily one of the best cars (if not the best) on the long runs and this weekend doesn't seem to be any difference. I have no doubt, that Harvick will find himself up at the front contending for the win before it is all over. I have the 4 car finishing right around 5th place or so. If he can get good track position before the midway point, then he defiantly could go to victory lane. Don't count out Harvick, just because he is starting further back than we want.
7. Joey Logano - Logano have been really consistent on the road courses over the past few seasons and it probably only matter of time before he wins at Sonoma. Honestly it probably took longer to win at his first road course race (last August - WGI) than it should've. As he have finished 11th or better in 9 of his past 10 races road courses dating back to the 2011 season. I personally don't think the Penske cars are quite as good as the HMS and JGR cars this weekend, but I think Logano will have something for least the top 10. He have posted 4 Top 11 finishes (including 3 Top 10s) over his past 5 races at Sonoma. Solid track record to go along with some momentum with coming off two of his better races this season at Pocono and Michigan. In practice, he was top 10 in my opinion. I think he may flirt with the top 5 in the race with all the strategies, but straight up I am not convinced that he will contend for a top 5
8. Dale Jr - Junior impressed me on Friday and I thought he would've had something for the pole, but only could manage an 13th-place. Regardless, it doesn't take any way that fact that the 88 car had arguably the best car on Friday in both sessions. Kyle said that the 88,42 and 41 had the best cars in the first practice session and that session is the most important in my opinion. Junior also have had good amount of success at Sonoma. He have finished 12th or better in three straight races now and have back-to-back top 7 finishes. If we really dig deeper, he have 6 Top 13 finishes since the 2007 season, which is like a 9-race span. Want to go deeper (not that it really relevant)? 8 Top 13 finishes in his last 13 starts isn't bad either. So not like Dale been terrible here, he been pretty solid actually. The only thing Dale Jr doesn't have going for him? Momentum. He have struggled to finish well lately and that is concerning to me, but I think he has a car capable of least inside the top 10. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if he finished inside the top 5 either.
9. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have not finished inside the top 30 since winning at Kansas! That is impressive (not a good impressive either) streak of bad finishes and honestly I cannot say he was super competitive in any of those races. He wasn't ever garbage, but I don't think he had anything for the top 5 either when thinking about his performances in each race. Honestly, when he won last season at Sonoma it kinda out of nowhere as he have struggled at this track since winning in 2008. He have some speed this weekend, but I don't think he have enough to go back-to-back. Of course that not factoring in all of the strategies and other important factors. Headed into Sunday's race, I think Busch is a top 10 driver with possible top 5 upside. But he worries with this cold streak he have been on. So realistically I am not expecting anything beyond a top 10 finish, just how I see it though.
10. Kyle Larson - Jeff made a great point earlier this week about Kyle Larson being such a fast learner and applying knowledge to a track. I think it was even truer after watching practice with a lot of the young drivers in our sport struggling with this place. Larson on the other hand have looked very good. Remember this is only his 3rd time being at Sonoma in a Cup car, but he is defiantly one of the drivers to contend with. On Friday, he was one of the drivers people were talking about in the garage. And his lap times on the charts backed that up as well, so he has a fast car this weekend. And nobody really surprised about that either. Larson have been one of the strongest drivers since start of May and I don't think it will be long before he get to victory lane honestly. When you consistently run up front, you will sooner or later win a race. And when he does, I think that when he really going to start knocking off the finishes. If we going to see a first-time winner or a surprise winner, then I would want my money of the 42 car!
11. Kasey Kahne - Kasey will roll off from just inside the top 20 on Sunday afternoon, but I think he will surprise some people with a solid run at Sonoma. Some people don't realize that Kasey is one of the better drivers in the series here. And a lot of that is to do with the equipment he is in, even though he lone win at Sonoma came before joining HMS. Entering the weekend, Kahne have put together 4 straight Top 10 finishes at this track and could make it 5 straight when the checkers waves. In practice, Kahne wasn't too bad overall I guess. He wasn't ever anything special, but Kasey usually doesn't dominate the speed charts. On your average weekend, if Kahne have speed in the top 15 (as he did on Friday), then he should have good shot at a top 10 finish. I think that exactly what will happen. Doubt if he finishes any better than 7th, but I would gladly take that type of finish out him.
12. Tony Stewart - Smoke have been very good the last couple weeks and Sonoma may not be any different. He ran really good over the past two races and have showed some speed this weekend at Sonoma. Some people would say that Smoke is back, but I say it also have a lot to do with the tracks as well. Michigan, Pocono and Sonoma are all considered among his best racetracks! So I cannot say that I am shocked how he ran at Michigan and Pocono. Not shocked that he qualified well for Sonoma either. And if he could finish 12th here last season at Sonoma, then he probably will have something for a top 10 finish this season then.
Yahoo Rankings by Tier
A:
1. Kurt Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Joey Logano
5. Dale Jr
6. Kyle Busch
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Denny Hamlin
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. AJ Dinger
4. Kyle Larson
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Tony Stewart
7. Ryan Newman
8. Jamie Mac
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Paul Menard
C:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Michael McDowell
3. Brian Scott
4. Ryan Blaney
Twitter - @MattAleza
We are at my homestate track of Sonoma this weekend for the 16th Sprint Cup Series race of the 2016 season! Jeff Nathans (who usually write up this post) wasn't available this weekend, so I will been chosen to take over his timeslot. Anyhow, there were two practice sessions on Friday afternoon and then qualifying on Saturday. Of the two practice sessions, I put more stock into the first session than the second because of track conditions to being more similar. Also most teams focused on qualifying in the final session. I personally think Sonoma is a track that requires luck more than anything. I fully expect strategies to come into play and most likely be a heavy factor in who eventually goes to victory lane. Below I have I put together my version of the Fantasy Nascar Update. Instead of breaking them down into grouping (as Jeff does), I have decided to make a straight up top 12 list. Since a lot of people play Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I will list my Grouping Tier rankings at the bottom. Also you can view my Final Rankings (full-list) for Sonoma by clicking here.
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is my top fantasy pick this weekend for many reasons, but his recent track history is what makes him stands out more than anything. Since winning with Penske in 2011, he have been impressive here. Over the past 5 races, he has 4 Top 5 finishes at this track and probably should have finished top 5 again in 2014 but things didn't quite work out for him. Overall, he haven't finished worse than 12th place since the 2011 season at Sonoma. Not only does he have a great track record, but he been near top of the speed charts on both Friday and Saturday. On Friday, Kurt Busch was very fast and brother Kyle said he was among the fastest in the first practice session. Dale Jr even tweeted a graphic that basically said the exact same thing. In race-trim, I thought he easily among the top 5 drivers. Then on Saturday, he went out and qualified in the 4th position and will roll off from there on Sunday afternoon. I really like what Kurt brings to the table this weekend as a fantasy pick. Not only because of his track record and solid weekend so far, but he also been the most-consistent driver in the series this season. Usually he is a top 10 potential driver, but I think he will be more than that when the checkers waves at Sonoma though.
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards stood out on Friday as one of the drivers to beat, I thought he was very good overall. More than a couple people in the garage mentioned that as well. And nobody is really that surprised that he been fast. Carl went to victory lane for the first time at Sonoma in 2014 with RFR. But that just icing on the cake, as he been quite good on the road courses for a few years prior to that. Over the previous 5 Sonoma races (2011-2015), he have finished 3rd or better in 3 of 5 races. The other two finishes have been 21st and 40th though. He DNFed here last season, but that was because he got wrecked. Another thing Carl have going for him? He have only qualified inside the top 5 twice at Sonoma (2013 and 2014) and both times he finished inside the top 3. He is starting from the pole on Sunday and the JGR Toyotas seems to have a lot of speed this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Carl went back to victory lane here!
3. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from 15th place, but I have no worries about him though. He been very good at Sonoma in the past and was strong in practice on Friday as well. In the first session, I thought he among the best of them and his team really were encouraged by his lap times too. Johnson said he loves Sonoma because how challenging it is, which would explain why he has a Series-high 7 straight Top 10 finishes at Sonoma. More impressive that 6 of 7 have ended in 7th or better. The Driver of the #48 car haven't exactly been super-consistent over the past month or so this season, but I think he will be a major threat on Sunday afternoon. I am not worried one bit about his starting positon, he will easily make his way inside the top 10. Probably before first-round of pit stops have even started. Remember last season at Sonoma? Started 13th and was picking them off left and right and led 45 laps to an 6th place finish. Another thing I like? He have improved his finishing position over his last three starts. 9th in 2013, 7th in 2014 and 6th in 2015.
4. AJ Dinger - Part of me thinks AJ Dinger gonna be tough to beat, then the other part of me thinks I have him ranked too high. And honestly I get the feeling, Dinger will be a heavily debated fantasy pick. Some will trust him from the 2nd starting position and use him, and others will remember the last two Sonoma races. Personally, I wasn't blown away in practice by him. I thought he was pretty good in race-trim but nothing near what we are use to out of him at Sonoma. However, I think he was sandbagging it a little too. So it hard to say how good he really is, but history says he will be a contender at Sonoma. But for whatever it means, the 47 team have been much faster this season than it was last season. So maybe that will translate to better results, just a thought.
5. Martin Truex Jr - Truex have been bad fast all season long, but he haven't had much luck though. I think the 78 have a car capable of finishing inside the top 5, but I think that will depend on if lady luck is willing to work with him. The 78 car was solid in Friday's first session and showed top 5 speed overall. But looking at his track record, outside of his win in 2013 he haven't really done too much at Sonoma. He got wrecked here last season for anyone that cannot remember. Truex is a pretty good road course racer, but most of his good results have came at the other track (Watkin Glenn). Based on practice, I would say roll with him as he should be a contender (like most weekend this season). But I wouldn't be shocked if something went wrong for him though. That how his season have been more often than not.
6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starting deep in the field (think like 30th place), but his team was pretty happy about his car in racetrim on Friday afternoon. I thought he was one of the better cars overall and solid on the long runs. He was top 5 good or very close to it based on everything I saw from lap times to interviews. Not to mention, Harvick have been really good at Sonoma since joining the 4 car in 2014. He have been easily one of the best cars (if not the best) on the long runs and this weekend doesn't seem to be any difference. I have no doubt, that Harvick will find himself up at the front contending for the win before it is all over. I have the 4 car finishing right around 5th place or so. If he can get good track position before the midway point, then he defiantly could go to victory lane. Don't count out Harvick, just because he is starting further back than we want.
7. Joey Logano - Logano have been really consistent on the road courses over the past few seasons and it probably only matter of time before he wins at Sonoma. Honestly it probably took longer to win at his first road course race (last August - WGI) than it should've. As he have finished 11th or better in 9 of his past 10 races road courses dating back to the 2011 season. I personally don't think the Penske cars are quite as good as the HMS and JGR cars this weekend, but I think Logano will have something for least the top 10. He have posted 4 Top 11 finishes (including 3 Top 10s) over his past 5 races at Sonoma. Solid track record to go along with some momentum with coming off two of his better races this season at Pocono and Michigan. In practice, he was top 10 in my opinion. I think he may flirt with the top 5 in the race with all the strategies, but straight up I am not convinced that he will contend for a top 5
8. Dale Jr - Junior impressed me on Friday and I thought he would've had something for the pole, but only could manage an 13th-place. Regardless, it doesn't take any way that fact that the 88 car had arguably the best car on Friday in both sessions. Kyle said that the 88,42 and 41 had the best cars in the first practice session and that session is the most important in my opinion. Junior also have had good amount of success at Sonoma. He have finished 12th or better in three straight races now and have back-to-back top 7 finishes. If we really dig deeper, he have 6 Top 13 finishes since the 2007 season, which is like a 9-race span. Want to go deeper (not that it really relevant)? 8 Top 13 finishes in his last 13 starts isn't bad either. So not like Dale been terrible here, he been pretty solid actually. The only thing Dale Jr doesn't have going for him? Momentum. He have struggled to finish well lately and that is concerning to me, but I think he has a car capable of least inside the top 10. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if he finished inside the top 5 either.
9. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have not finished inside the top 30 since winning at Kansas! That is impressive (not a good impressive either) streak of bad finishes and honestly I cannot say he was super competitive in any of those races. He wasn't ever garbage, but I don't think he had anything for the top 5 either when thinking about his performances in each race. Honestly, when he won last season at Sonoma it kinda out of nowhere as he have struggled at this track since winning in 2008. He have some speed this weekend, but I don't think he have enough to go back-to-back. Of course that not factoring in all of the strategies and other important factors. Headed into Sunday's race, I think Busch is a top 10 driver with possible top 5 upside. But he worries with this cold streak he have been on. So realistically I am not expecting anything beyond a top 10 finish, just how I see it though.
10. Kyle Larson - Jeff made a great point earlier this week about Kyle Larson being such a fast learner and applying knowledge to a track. I think it was even truer after watching practice with a lot of the young drivers in our sport struggling with this place. Larson on the other hand have looked very good. Remember this is only his 3rd time being at Sonoma in a Cup car, but he is defiantly one of the drivers to contend with. On Friday, he was one of the drivers people were talking about in the garage. And his lap times on the charts backed that up as well, so he has a fast car this weekend. And nobody really surprised about that either. Larson have been one of the strongest drivers since start of May and I don't think it will be long before he get to victory lane honestly. When you consistently run up front, you will sooner or later win a race. And when he does, I think that when he really going to start knocking off the finishes. If we going to see a first-time winner or a surprise winner, then I would want my money of the 42 car!
11. Kasey Kahne - Kasey will roll off from just inside the top 20 on Sunday afternoon, but I think he will surprise some people with a solid run at Sonoma. Some people don't realize that Kasey is one of the better drivers in the series here. And a lot of that is to do with the equipment he is in, even though he lone win at Sonoma came before joining HMS. Entering the weekend, Kahne have put together 4 straight Top 10 finishes at this track and could make it 5 straight when the checkers waves. In practice, Kahne wasn't too bad overall I guess. He wasn't ever anything special, but Kasey usually doesn't dominate the speed charts. On your average weekend, if Kahne have speed in the top 15 (as he did on Friday), then he should have good shot at a top 10 finish. I think that exactly what will happen. Doubt if he finishes any better than 7th, but I would gladly take that type of finish out him.
12. Tony Stewart - Smoke have been very good the last couple weeks and Sonoma may not be any different. He ran really good over the past two races and have showed some speed this weekend at Sonoma. Some people would say that Smoke is back, but I say it also have a lot to do with the tracks as well. Michigan, Pocono and Sonoma are all considered among his best racetracks! So I cannot say that I am shocked how he ran at Michigan and Pocono. Not shocked that he qualified well for Sonoma either. And if he could finish 12th here last season at Sonoma, then he probably will have something for a top 10 finish this season then.
Yahoo Rankings by Tier
A:
1. Kurt Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Joey Logano
5. Dale Jr
6. Kyle Busch
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Denny Hamlin
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. AJ Dinger
4. Kyle Larson
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Tony Stewart
7. Ryan Newman
8. Jamie Mac
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Paul Menard
C:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Michael McDowell
3. Brian Scott
4. Ryan Blaney
Twitter - @MattAleza