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We are at Pocono Raceway for the second time in 2016 and for the second time, we are dealing with a rainy forecast for the Sprint Cup Series race. Martin Truex Jr will start from the pole with Carl Edwards alongside. I am looking forward to this race, whenever we are able to get it in. Much like anytime we come to Pocono, I am expecting pit strategies to vary depending on the team's objectives and goals. Pocono is a tricky track to figure out, often here we see a team figure out the track and lead a good portion of the laps. In June 2015, Truex lead the most laps (97) and in August it was Logano (97). Then this past June, we saw Chase Elliott lead the most laps (51). My point being, it seems like once you get to the lead, then you can check out here. Easier than at the intermediate tracks. Let take this past June's race for a example. Early in that race, Kyle Larson gambled and decided to get off-sequence to lead a few laps. On the restart, he was able to pull away from the field and lead a few laps before having to pit. If I remember correctly, he jump out to about 1-second lead over Kenseth (who had a very fast car that day). Larson probably only had about 10th or 12th place car based on speed though. Which brings me to back to pit strategies, you can expect a lot of those to be played. Which also means that the best car may not win, so this might be a good week to take some calculated gambles with your fantasy picks. Not saying to go crazy, but remember this is known pit (and often fuel) strategy event. Also track position is huge here, so expect teams to take extra gambles to get some of that all important track position.
***On a totally non-relative matter, Jeff Nathans wasn't available to do his weekly post. So you all are stuck with me once again.
Final Rankings for Pocono
Here how I view the top 12 drivers headed into Sunday's race:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick looked like the driver with the car to beat in Saturday's practice and many people in the garage pointed at the #4 car as the car to beat. He put down a lot of laps on Saturday and will run off from the 17th starting position. I am not worried about the start position though, as this isn't anything new for Harvick. He have struggled to qualify all season long and have still produced great results on a near weekly basis without a problem. And when he has a car this fast, then you should probably expect him to speed to the front. Many people have voiced a concerned about him not having his crew chief, but that should be a non-issue really. These cars are prepared weeks in advanced, so only thing the intern crew chief have to deal with is the in-race stuff. When Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch lost their crew chiefs, they ran their best races of the season arguably. The 4 car is someone you should have on your fantasy team this weekend, especially in leagues that rewards points differential. If he can get track position and keep it, then he should be a major threat for the win.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr s using the same car that he dominated with at Charlotte and will start from the pole. I personally don't think he will dominate like at Charlotte, but I wouldn't be shocked by it either though. He will start from the pole, which means there a good chance that he leads least the early portion of the race. Remember, he dominated this racetrack in June 2015 from the 3rd position. Truex also been very good this season on a weekly basis as well. In practice on Saturday, he was very fast and posted the best-ten lap average overall and also posted the single-fastest lap as well. The 78 car could be tough to beat, if he doesn't beat himself this weekend. My real only concern, if bad luck can avoid this raceteam. If it does, then he should be in for least a top 5 finish in my opinion.
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is a pretty safe fantasy nascar option to go with this week overall as he has several things going for him. Firstly, he will start from the 7th starting position. The backend of the top 10 starters have produced the majority of the recent race winners at Pocono. Also he has a series-best 7.4 average finish since Dover, with 5 Top 5 finishes (tied for the most in series with Logano). Then course there is this weekend with him having another fast racecar. He have looked great since unloading, I wouldn't say he have the car to beat but he is definitely capable of being top 5 material. He will start from the 7th starting position and posted the 5th-best ten lap average on Saturday. He is coming off back-to-back misleading finishes, so that is a little corncerning that haven't gotten the finishes he deserved. But I think this is a perfect race to turn things around. Especially with pit strategies are commonly used here. Kesleowski and Wolf are great at those type of things.
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle is under the radar after his win at Indy, which is very surprising to me honestly. He doesn't have a great track record at Pocono, but he has ran quite well here though. More often than not, it is because bad luck in reality. Earlier this season when he came to Pocono, he got put in the wall. But remember that was in mix of a bad stench of races for the 18 team. Last August, he was leading when he ran of fuel with just a lap or two left. Now, Kyle doesn't have lightning speed this weekend but he certainly has enough to be a contender though. I really like the 18 car as a pick this week because he is a streaky driver. His great finishes comes in bunches it seems, as does his bad ones. When he finishes inside the top 5, he commonly backs that up the following week. Not always, but most times he does. It never wise to bet against a talent like Busch's and I am willing to bet that he finishes somewhere inside the top 5 or at very least just outside of that mark.
5. Joey Logano - Logano is another driver under the radar for no good reason at all, honestly I suspected people to be on top of the Driver of the No.22 car this week. He wasn't fast, but he been one of the best drivers here over the past 3 seasons. He dominated this event last August and finished 4th here in June. Not to mention, he has 7 Top 7 finishes over his past 6 Sprint Cup races as well. I think Logano is one of those driver who don't show their stuff until raceday. Especially when they don't have the fastest car. So we won't see Logano crank out a top lap time in practice, but more often than not he will find his way to the front and finish quite well. Overall, he has showed top 10 speed this weekend and probably will be close to being a top 5 guy before the checkers. This season it seems like he get better as the race goes on.
6. Carl Edwards - Edwards have another fast car and will start from the 2nd starting position. Both are great assets to have, but he is coming off back-to-back races where he have finished 20th or worse. It should be noted both of those finishes are because of a late race incident. Last week's result was much worse though. He also haven't had a top 5 finish at this track since the 2012 season, which is very concerning to me. Even though, he spent a few seasons with Roush. With all of that being said, I think Edwards have better places to be used at. He been strong on the short tracks and intermediate tracks. I do like Edwards this weekend though, I don't hate him by any means. If he can avoid any bad luck, then he will likely be a solid top 10 finish and have awesome upside well inside the top 5. Question is, do you trust him enough to use him? I think you also must ask yourself, how is your fantasy league set up? Are you rewarded based on finish position alone? If so, he is definitely worth considering then. Or do your league have multiple scoring system that vary from position differential to laps led? If your league is set up like on Nascar.com, then you may want to reconsider going with someone else.
7. Denny Hamlin - The last couple weeks, Hamlin have been running a lot better than he have most of the year and Pocono use to be a great track for him. Well, this could be the weekend to employ him in your fantasy lineup. He had speed off the truck and will start from 4th starting position. Hamlin also has a lot of momentum with two of his best races coming at New Hampshire and Indy. So there is no surprise that he has a lot of speed in his car. Jeff may have nailed it on Monday in his preview when he said that Hamlin is a secret weapon this week. Everything points to Hamlin as a pretty solid bet to finish inside the top 10. There clearly concerns about Hamlin's inconsistency this season, but if he finishes well this week. It may be time to give him some credit and overlook his messy start to the season.
8. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is coming off an 3rd place finish at Indy (his first top 10 finish since Richmond). Ironically, his last three top 10 finishes have all resulted in 3rd place. That great,right? Not so fast, folks! Over the past 13 races, he have only 3 top 10 finishes. That sounds bad, but if you look at his recent finishes, he haven't been bad. But problem is, Johnson is a top-tier driver. So having 4 Top 16 over the past 6 races, with only one top 10 (and top 5) finish isn't all that great. In practice, I wouldn't call him bad but I wouldn't call him great either though. He was about a top 10 driver overall I would say, but the HMS cars have been lacking in the speed department for the most part. Hard to see him finishing inside the top 5 this week. Last week, I think he got really lucky with all of those cautions late.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is having a good year, but he has hit a mini slump in his 2016 season, with a few bad finishes in a row. Even with the bad luck of late, it hard to overlook that Kurt have been great at Pocono and won earlier this season here. I don't think he is even close to being as good, as he was earlier this season, however his teammate in the 4 car been very strong so far this weekend and Kurt have had pretty good speed. To be completely honest, I feel like most people this week avoided Kurt because of how poorly he had finished the last couple races. I understand that and respect anyone for their logic behind that reasoning. However, I do believe Kurt will be least a top 10 car and finish toward the front.
10. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is someone who I expected to be stronger than he was in practice on Saturday, I thought overall he was decent. To me he sort of struggled to find speed, also he didn't show up on the ten-lap average chart either. Kenseth has plenty of momentum, but that doesn't do any good if he cannot back it up on raceday. He is starting from inside the top 10, so I guess that helps but I am not loving him as much as I was earlier in the week. I could be totally wrong and he finishes inside the top 5, but I am expecting nothing beyond a backend top 10 finish. With that said, if he get some track position he may end up being better than I am expecting though. Last August, we went to victory lane here after saving enough of fuel. And was very strong this past June, if I seem low on him it because how high my standards were for him before practice
11. Kyle Larson - Larson have posted 7 finishes of 13th or better since Dover and is at one of his better tracks this weekend. Larson have never finished worse than 12th place at either Large flat racetrack of Indy and Pocono. He looked solid in practice as well and was least top 10 good in my opinion. Last week, he performed better in the race than he did in practice. This week he looks to be about 6th or 7th place car in practice and could have the potential to finish inside the top 5 as well. Larson also starting from the 11th starting position and top 12 starting spots have translated into top 12 finishes this season. In fact, in his previous 4 races this season when he qualified 12th or better, he have finished 12th or better. Also it seems like Larson finish well at tracks that he have performed historically well at. I really like him this week and think he will finish inside the top 10, if not better.
12. Tony Stewart - Smoke should make a very fine fantasy option this weekend at Pocono for multiple reasons and first would be his starting spot. Typically when, he starts inside the top 10 or even better close to the top 5, he has a pretty good racecar. In practice, he only posted the 20th single fastest lap but have a pretty good long run car overall. I think that will be strength of his car this week. Also he has a great track record here as well, typically in fantasy racing we are looking for positive trends and Smoke always a good pick here. Even in recent down seasons, he been solid here. Remember in 2014, he probably would have won a race here if it wasn't for a poor decision by his then crew chief Chad Johnston. Then there the momentum to consider he has headed into this race. Smoke have finished past 5 of 6 races inside the top 10 and leads all driver in that span in average finish. I think Tony will be a solid top 10 or top 12 option at Pocono this week. He has everything you want in a pick.
Twitter - @MattAleza
We are at Pocono Raceway for the second time in 2016 and for the second time, we are dealing with a rainy forecast for the Sprint Cup Series race. Martin Truex Jr will start from the pole with Carl Edwards alongside. I am looking forward to this race, whenever we are able to get it in. Much like anytime we come to Pocono, I am expecting pit strategies to vary depending on the team's objectives and goals. Pocono is a tricky track to figure out, often here we see a team figure out the track and lead a good portion of the laps. In June 2015, Truex lead the most laps (97) and in August it was Logano (97). Then this past June, we saw Chase Elliott lead the most laps (51). My point being, it seems like once you get to the lead, then you can check out here. Easier than at the intermediate tracks. Let take this past June's race for a example. Early in that race, Kyle Larson gambled and decided to get off-sequence to lead a few laps. On the restart, he was able to pull away from the field and lead a few laps before having to pit. If I remember correctly, he jump out to about 1-second lead over Kenseth (who had a very fast car that day). Larson probably only had about 10th or 12th place car based on speed though. Which brings me to back to pit strategies, you can expect a lot of those to be played. Which also means that the best car may not win, so this might be a good week to take some calculated gambles with your fantasy picks. Not saying to go crazy, but remember this is known pit (and often fuel) strategy event. Also track position is huge here, so expect teams to take extra gambles to get some of that all important track position.
***On a totally non-relative matter, Jeff Nathans wasn't available to do his weekly post. So you all are stuck with me once again.
Final Rankings for Pocono
Here how I view the top 12 drivers headed into Sunday's race:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick looked like the driver with the car to beat in Saturday's practice and many people in the garage pointed at the #4 car as the car to beat. He put down a lot of laps on Saturday and will run off from the 17th starting position. I am not worried about the start position though, as this isn't anything new for Harvick. He have struggled to qualify all season long and have still produced great results on a near weekly basis without a problem. And when he has a car this fast, then you should probably expect him to speed to the front. Many people have voiced a concerned about him not having his crew chief, but that should be a non-issue really. These cars are prepared weeks in advanced, so only thing the intern crew chief have to deal with is the in-race stuff. When Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch lost their crew chiefs, they ran their best races of the season arguably. The 4 car is someone you should have on your fantasy team this weekend, especially in leagues that rewards points differential. If he can get track position and keep it, then he should be a major threat for the win.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr s using the same car that he dominated with at Charlotte and will start from the pole. I personally don't think he will dominate like at Charlotte, but I wouldn't be shocked by it either though. He will start from the pole, which means there a good chance that he leads least the early portion of the race. Remember, he dominated this racetrack in June 2015 from the 3rd position. Truex also been very good this season on a weekly basis as well. In practice on Saturday, he was very fast and posted the best-ten lap average overall and also posted the single-fastest lap as well. The 78 car could be tough to beat, if he doesn't beat himself this weekend. My real only concern, if bad luck can avoid this raceteam. If it does, then he should be in for least a top 5 finish in my opinion.
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is a pretty safe fantasy nascar option to go with this week overall as he has several things going for him. Firstly, he will start from the 7th starting position. The backend of the top 10 starters have produced the majority of the recent race winners at Pocono. Also he has a series-best 7.4 average finish since Dover, with 5 Top 5 finishes (tied for the most in series with Logano). Then course there is this weekend with him having another fast racecar. He have looked great since unloading, I wouldn't say he have the car to beat but he is definitely capable of being top 5 material. He will start from the 7th starting position and posted the 5th-best ten lap average on Saturday. He is coming off back-to-back misleading finishes, so that is a little corncerning that haven't gotten the finishes he deserved. But I think this is a perfect race to turn things around. Especially with pit strategies are commonly used here. Kesleowski and Wolf are great at those type of things.
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle is under the radar after his win at Indy, which is very surprising to me honestly. He doesn't have a great track record at Pocono, but he has ran quite well here though. More often than not, it is because bad luck in reality. Earlier this season when he came to Pocono, he got put in the wall. But remember that was in mix of a bad stench of races for the 18 team. Last August, he was leading when he ran of fuel with just a lap or two left. Now, Kyle doesn't have lightning speed this weekend but he certainly has enough to be a contender though. I really like the 18 car as a pick this week because he is a streaky driver. His great finishes comes in bunches it seems, as does his bad ones. When he finishes inside the top 5, he commonly backs that up the following week. Not always, but most times he does. It never wise to bet against a talent like Busch's and I am willing to bet that he finishes somewhere inside the top 5 or at very least just outside of that mark.
5. Joey Logano - Logano is another driver under the radar for no good reason at all, honestly I suspected people to be on top of the Driver of the No.22 car this week. He wasn't fast, but he been one of the best drivers here over the past 3 seasons. He dominated this event last August and finished 4th here in June. Not to mention, he has 7 Top 7 finishes over his past 6 Sprint Cup races as well. I think Logano is one of those driver who don't show their stuff until raceday. Especially when they don't have the fastest car. So we won't see Logano crank out a top lap time in practice, but more often than not he will find his way to the front and finish quite well. Overall, he has showed top 10 speed this weekend and probably will be close to being a top 5 guy before the checkers. This season it seems like he get better as the race goes on.
6. Carl Edwards - Edwards have another fast car and will start from the 2nd starting position. Both are great assets to have, but he is coming off back-to-back races where he have finished 20th or worse. It should be noted both of those finishes are because of a late race incident. Last week's result was much worse though. He also haven't had a top 5 finish at this track since the 2012 season, which is very concerning to me. Even though, he spent a few seasons with Roush. With all of that being said, I think Edwards have better places to be used at. He been strong on the short tracks and intermediate tracks. I do like Edwards this weekend though, I don't hate him by any means. If he can avoid any bad luck, then he will likely be a solid top 10 finish and have awesome upside well inside the top 5. Question is, do you trust him enough to use him? I think you also must ask yourself, how is your fantasy league set up? Are you rewarded based on finish position alone? If so, he is definitely worth considering then. Or do your league have multiple scoring system that vary from position differential to laps led? If your league is set up like on Nascar.com, then you may want to reconsider going with someone else.
7. Denny Hamlin - The last couple weeks, Hamlin have been running a lot better than he have most of the year and Pocono use to be a great track for him. Well, this could be the weekend to employ him in your fantasy lineup. He had speed off the truck and will start from 4th starting position. Hamlin also has a lot of momentum with two of his best races coming at New Hampshire and Indy. So there is no surprise that he has a lot of speed in his car. Jeff may have nailed it on Monday in his preview when he said that Hamlin is a secret weapon this week. Everything points to Hamlin as a pretty solid bet to finish inside the top 10. There clearly concerns about Hamlin's inconsistency this season, but if he finishes well this week. It may be time to give him some credit and overlook his messy start to the season.
8. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is coming off an 3rd place finish at Indy (his first top 10 finish since Richmond). Ironically, his last three top 10 finishes have all resulted in 3rd place. That great,right? Not so fast, folks! Over the past 13 races, he have only 3 top 10 finishes. That sounds bad, but if you look at his recent finishes, he haven't been bad. But problem is, Johnson is a top-tier driver. So having 4 Top 16 over the past 6 races, with only one top 10 (and top 5) finish isn't all that great. In practice, I wouldn't call him bad but I wouldn't call him great either though. He was about a top 10 driver overall I would say, but the HMS cars have been lacking in the speed department for the most part. Hard to see him finishing inside the top 5 this week. Last week, I think he got really lucky with all of those cautions late.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is having a good year, but he has hit a mini slump in his 2016 season, with a few bad finishes in a row. Even with the bad luck of late, it hard to overlook that Kurt have been great at Pocono and won earlier this season here. I don't think he is even close to being as good, as he was earlier this season, however his teammate in the 4 car been very strong so far this weekend and Kurt have had pretty good speed. To be completely honest, I feel like most people this week avoided Kurt because of how poorly he had finished the last couple races. I understand that and respect anyone for their logic behind that reasoning. However, I do believe Kurt will be least a top 10 car and finish toward the front.
10. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is someone who I expected to be stronger than he was in practice on Saturday, I thought overall he was decent. To me he sort of struggled to find speed, also he didn't show up on the ten-lap average chart either. Kenseth has plenty of momentum, but that doesn't do any good if he cannot back it up on raceday. He is starting from inside the top 10, so I guess that helps but I am not loving him as much as I was earlier in the week. I could be totally wrong and he finishes inside the top 5, but I am expecting nothing beyond a backend top 10 finish. With that said, if he get some track position he may end up being better than I am expecting though. Last August, we went to victory lane here after saving enough of fuel. And was very strong this past June, if I seem low on him it because how high my standards were for him before practice
11. Kyle Larson - Larson have posted 7 finishes of 13th or better since Dover and is at one of his better tracks this weekend. Larson have never finished worse than 12th place at either Large flat racetrack of Indy and Pocono. He looked solid in practice as well and was least top 10 good in my opinion. Last week, he performed better in the race than he did in practice. This week he looks to be about 6th or 7th place car in practice and could have the potential to finish inside the top 5 as well. Larson also starting from the 11th starting position and top 12 starting spots have translated into top 12 finishes this season. In fact, in his previous 4 races this season when he qualified 12th or better, he have finished 12th or better. Also it seems like Larson finish well at tracks that he have performed historically well at. I really like him this week and think he will finish inside the top 10, if not better.
12. Tony Stewart - Smoke should make a very fine fantasy option this weekend at Pocono for multiple reasons and first would be his starting spot. Typically when, he starts inside the top 10 or even better close to the top 5, he has a pretty good racecar. In practice, he only posted the 20th single fastest lap but have a pretty good long run car overall. I think that will be strength of his car this week. Also he has a great track record here as well, typically in fantasy racing we are looking for positive trends and Smoke always a good pick here. Even in recent down seasons, he been solid here. Remember in 2014, he probably would have won a race here if it wasn't for a poor decision by his then crew chief Chad Johnston. Then there the momentum to consider he has headed into this race. Smoke have finished past 5 of 6 races inside the top 10 and leads all driver in that span in average finish. I think Tony will be a solid top 10 or top 12 option at Pocono this week. He has everything you want in a pick.
Twitter - @MattAleza