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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac should be in good shape if there are no winner between now and Richmond, unless he have a really bad race, which means Bristol is the only real bullet he have to miss. I am not worried about him, as he have a pretty good history at this place. His teammate ran extremely well earlier this season here, so he also have that going for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 96.6 driver rating. One of my favorite JMac's memories was back in 2014 night race. On that night, he led 148 laps on his way to an 8th place finish. He arguably had the car to beat in the race and could've won, however he had a slow pit stop that lined him up in the wrong line. Once he lost the clean air, his car was never quite as good and faded to 8th place. Believe it or not, he was really strong in 2014 here. In the spring, he was running top 5 good before Dale Jr put him into the wall. Bristol have been very good to him over the past 10 races. As he have finished 7 of his past 10 races at Bristol inside the top 14. Including 4 straight finishes of 8th-14th place. Also 5 of his past 7 have ended in that range as well. Want to go back even further? 10 of his past 14 races at Bristol have ended in 14th or better. With 6 of those 10 Top 14 finishes ending inside the top 10. Overall, he was very good last season on the short tracks and Bristol was no different. He ran great in both races and performed a little better than he finished. He had finishes of 11th and 14th. Earlier this season, he finished 13th and that was probably one of his 4 worst races (pure performance wise) since the 2009 season at BMS. Headed into practice, I view him as a top 15 fantasy option.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski and Penske have been one of the series at Bristol over the past couple seasons and they are really the only organization who been within striking distance this season of JGR. Keselowski have ran okay at Bristol recently and should have a good shot this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. Not very good numbers overall, but he have some questionable/misleading races though. In August 2014 (5 races ago), he finished 14th but he hit the wall while running top 5 (had one of the cars in that race). There were only 14 cars on lead lap, so he was able to limp to the finish on lead lap. He followed that up with an strong 2nd place in the summer race (in 2014). He led 40 laps while finishing runner-up to teammate Logano. He was top 3 good for that race in my opinion. Last season he posted finishes of 35th and 6th. In the spring, race he finished 20 laps down. He finished 20 laps down because him and teammate Joey Logano wrecked with each other around lap 19. He came back in August (2015) and finished 6th after starting 6th. He didn't have the car to beat that day, but he had a good enough car to contend for a top 10 finish. Keselowski have only posted 5 Top 10 finishes (all ended in 6th or better), but 3 of those 5 have happened in the summer (August) race. Including back-to-back seasons with finishes of 6th and 2nd places. I think Brad will be a top 10 contender this week, but I am not sold on him being a possible race-winner contender. However, he is running very well right now so I wouldn't be shocked either.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon just needs to be consistent over the next couple races and he will likely make the chase. However he was in much better shape before his problems at WGI. So he cannot have problems at Bristol or he could be in a tad trouble when it comes to making the chase. As from a fantasy vantage point, Dillon should be relatively safe choice this week. He have found okay success in his first few starts this place. Over his past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 65.4 driver rating. His numbers are misleading there. In 5 career starts, he have posted 3 finishes from 10th-13th place. Which is pretty solid for him overall. But when he had bad performances, they were ugly from a pure performance standpoint. In August 2014, he had his worst performance (and finish). He finished 7 laps down and posted an 35.6 driver rating. A good driving rating for Dillon in his rookie year was in the mid-60s or 70. That should tell you a lot about his perform for that race. Earlier this season (spring race), he struggled again and finished 26th. While posting an 49.6 driver rating. We all know what Dillon capable of and he was not very good in the spring race. So Dillon have had his bad share of races and his good share as well. Headed into the weekend, I view Dillon as a low to middle teen-type driver.
4-Kevin Harvick: Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske have dominated the recent races as organizations, but Kevin Harvick makes a strong case of one of the best individual performers at Bristol. However, I do believe he will be an afterthought with most people having the JGR guys and Logano on their fantasy radar primarily. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 114.4 driver rating. Since joining SHR, he have had two poor finishes and three solid finishes.. In his debut at Bristol in the #4 car, he finished 39th after running top 5 most of the event. He led 28 laps and still posted 99.1 driver rating. Even though he got involved in an accident during second half of the race. Still very strong! The following spring (2015), he once again running top 5 and led 184 laps before bad luck struck once again. He finished 38th on that day. His other three finishes have ended in 11th, 2nd and 7th. The good thing is? All three of those good finishes have came in 3 of his past 4 races. Including back-to-back top 7 finishes at this place. Weather he is able to finish out races or at Bristol, he have been incredibly strong. His lowest driver rating in his past 5 starts at BMS is 99.2 and that was a race where he finished 50+ laps down. I think Harvick is one of the safest bets this week and he is on my short-list as possible winners.
5-Kasey Kahne: Logically with HMS struggles this season, you would think that Kasey Kahne would be affected the most by it. However, the #5 team really haven't seen much regression in terms of performance compared to 2014 and 2015 seasons. He still running in the low to middle teens every week. Not much have changed in my opinion. How will he do at Bristol? Good question and it hard to say. This use to be a very good track for him, but that can be said about several racetrack for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 26.3 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. From 2010 to 2014 (the spring race), Kasey Kahne was stud at this place. Only once did he finish worse than 11th place and swept the top 2 in 2013. However, over his past 4 races he have not finished better than 16th place. He probably had his best performance in that span this past spring though. In that race, I would say he was close to being a top 10 driver. With that said, he have finished off the lead lap in the 3 previous races. He finished 2 laps down in last August's race. He led 40 laps in August 2014 race, but basically took the wall down late in that race. Right after a pit stop, too. So I guess it not that he haven't had speed or just shitty performances, but more so he haven't gotten any good finishes. He is far from the driver he was in 2013 races, but I think he is very capable of running top 15. That where he have ran this season as well. At Bristol, he may be able to sneak closer to the top 10 than usual. I am not banking on it though.
11-Denny Hamlin: I said it for weeks that Hamlin was on the upwing and he cashed in at Watkins Glenn. I will admit, I had much higher hopes than usual for him but I didn't think he would win. But I knew it was only matter of time though. Now he goes to a place where he have found decent success at in his career. However, he have struggled to find good finishes lately. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 22.3 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. He only have 3 Top 20 finishes over his past 7 races, with 2 of those those ending inside the top 6. Last August, he posted an 2nd place finish which was his best effort since winning in August 2012. Hamlin doesn't really have a lot going for him lately at this track, but I think he has more going for him this season though. Joe Gibbs Racing have dominated this season and Hamlin is starting to hit his stride (as I figured he would) in the second half of the season. Not only that, but he also has a lot of momentum entering this race. He currently have 4 straight Top 9 finishes this season and have been an excellent qualifier all year as well. If you gonna use Hamlin this week, I think you have to look past his recent record here. He does have good potential if you can overlook that. In fact, I am fairly high on him this week overall.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr started off the season fairly hot (for him) and a consistent top 16 finisher up until around Kansas. Since then he have cooled off considerably and now is a questionable play at this point of the season. If you didn't jump on the Stenhouse's value early on, then you probably missed out. If there is a place to use him then Bristol would be it though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. His worst finish ever here is 21st place and that was last August. He finished 21st in that race, but he spun and had to make a recovery to a respectable finish. Earlier this season, he spun again but was able to rebound to an solid 16th place finish. Overall, he have finished 5 of his 7 career races inside the top 16. Including 3 straight Top 6 finishes from spring 2014 to spring 2015. He does not have much momentum going for him at the moment. But if you are going to use him this season, then I think this is the week to use him then. Bristol is statically his best racetrack in my opinion.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy use to be a stud here at old Bristol, but him and new Bristol doesn't seems to mash too well (in terms of finishes). Nevertheless, he is having a great season and seems to be hitting his stride. As he have finished 7 straight races inside the top 12, with 4 straight top 9 finishes as well. Earlier this season, he was one of the JGR cars who kept blowing tires and finished 38th. Speed wise, I say he could have had the best car but we never found out. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.3 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. As much bad luck as Rowdy have had here, he have posted two top 11 finishes over his past 3 summer races. In fact, he finished 8th in last summer's race and led 192 laps on that night. He had the car to beat but he had a pit road penalty that put him a lap down. Then he had to charge back through the field after getting back on the lead lap. Rowdy is running as good as anyone right now, so I think he is very capable of being the driver he was before the repave. Will he? I don't know, but last August he showed flashes of it. If he can stay out of trouble, then I would consider the 18 car as one of the favorites.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is a stud at this track and only have gotten better since joining JGR (as he should). JGR is the best team in the series on type of track and proven in the past why they should be highly regarded. Edwards this past spring dominated his way to another win at BMS. Not the first time he have found success and he been the best driver here the last few seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 116.6 driver rating. Overall, he have finished 7th or better in 4 of the past 5 races. Also, he won twice in that 5 race span. In fact, he have won 4 times in 24 starts at this track. If we being technical, he have won 4 times in his last 16 races. In August 2013, he was extremely strong and probably had the car to beat. He led 119 laps on that day, but had a engine let go and finished 39th place. Another interesting fact about Edwards? Over the past 6 races, he have led least 74 laps in 5 of his past 6 races. He have led in 6 of his past 8 Bristol races overall. One of the biggest reasons for his success? He have qualified 3rd or better in 5 of his past 6 races. 4 of those 6 races have resulted in 7th or 1st. He is on my short-list of possible race winners.
20-Matt Kenseth: I don't think there is a driver who dominates Bristol, who is more underrated than Matt Kenseth. He is easily one of the best drivers in the series here, but yet he doesn't get enough credit in my opinion. It could be because he doesn't always finish out races here, but make my words he always a major threat though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. Kenseth was very strong this past spring and probably had the second or third best car (at times the best car), as he led 142 laps. But he hit the wall multiple times before having to go to the garage for repairs. Last August, he also found problems, that time it was a blown engine. Prior to that, he had finished 3rd or better in 3 of 4 previous races. Including 2 wins. So overall, he have won twice over the past 6 races. He also have led in 5 of those 6 races. He been consistent at Bristol long before he joined JGR though. Over the past 14 races here, he have posted 9 Top 10 finishes. 6 of those 9 races have ended inside the top 5. He also have some momentum on his side entering the weekend. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes. Including finishes of 1st and 2nd at Indy and New Hampshire. I really like Kenseth overall as a fantasy option this week, in fact I have very high hopes for all of the JGR drivers. Kenseth is definitely on my fantasy radar!
21-Ryan Blaney: I keep my eye on the fantasy nascar community browsing site to site and my biggest surprise is the lack of love for Ryan Blaney. I absolutely love him this week and I think this is one of the places where he is gonna be really strong. He finished 11th earlier this season and ran around that area for much of the race. He also been very good in the lower level series. He have recorded wins in both Xfinity series and Truck series. Not every rookie in the Sprint Cup Series can say that at Bristol Motor Speedway. I think Blaney have some great potential this weekend and he will be a good sleeper that most people won't think about. If he have a good pair of practices on Friday, then I wouldn't rule out a top 10 from him. For now, I would say he can be a top 15 fantasy selection. And remember, he get support from Penske and they usually run pretty well here, too. That should only further back a strong case for him this week.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have been one of the very best in the series at Bristol and as it widely known that Logano have won the past two summer races. Will he be able to win 3 straight summer races? Sure, nothing is impossible. However, I think it will be very difficult to do. In other words, the odds are stacked against him. But never count out Joey, that's for sure! He been very strong in general at Bristol recently in general. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 104.6 driver rating. As I mentioned earlier, he won back the past two summer races, but he been pretty good in the summer time since 2010. Over the past 6 summer races, he have finished 18th or better every time. He have finished 8th or better in every summer race since the 2012 season (last 4 races). And 5th or better in his last three starts in the summer race. Overall, he have finished 5 of the past 8 races at BMS inside the top 10. He finished 10th earlier this season, but I think Penske was still searching for some speed. They have found it now and are now the closest team to JGR. He also have plenty of momentum and finsihing consistent as anyone else. Over the past 10 Sprint Cup Series races this season, he have posted 8 Top 10 finishes. With 6 of those 8 ending inside the top 5. Including 3 of the past 4 races resulting in 7th or better. Logano have a lot going for him and have be one of the drivers to watch for this weekend.
24-Chase Elliott: Chase Elliott didn't do too bad a few weeks ago at Watkins Glenn and finished 16th. That is far from terrible, however he have finished now 7 straight races outside of the top 10. In the first 15 races this season, he only finished worse than 9th place in 3 races. So basically he have tripled his number of non-top 10 finishes over the past 7 cup races. That's pretty incredible! I know, I know that's not something to brag about. But still that's crazy to me! On the plus side, he did finish 4th earlier this season at Bristol and had close about a top 5 car (performance wise). But honestly, I am not expecting him to back that up though. I think HMS being behind is starting affect Elliott (as his recent finishes/performance have shown) to a certain extent. Obviously a lot of bad finishes are to due to bad luck. But we aren't seeing him up front inside the top 5 like we saw earlier in the season either. Regardless of the result. Headed into the weekend, I view him more of an top 15 driver with clear upside.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a pretty good season and I expect that to continue at one of his better tracks. He always been a solid short track racer, too. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 87.8 driver rating. Right off the bat, you probably notice his solid 12.5 average running position which is good enough for 6th-best over that 4-race span. He have finished 16th or better in 5 straight races at Bristol. More recently, his numbers are even more encouraging. As he have posted 3 straight Top 10 finishes over his past 3 races at this place. Overall, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 7 races. If want to go a little deeper, he have finished 7 of the past 10 races inside the top 13 at Bristol. Obviously good chunk of that data is from before the repave. The past few seasons is the data you want to look, but still serves my point of Newman being very reliable. Weather it on old Bristol or new Bristol, Newman have been one of the most consistent fantasy options in the series. And I don't think that will change on Saturday night.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch may be one of the best kept secrets this week as nobody really have talked about him much. He have found plenty of success at this track and I think he is in store for some more this weekend. He finished 3rd earlier this season and led 40 laps. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.3 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 106.1 driver rating. From a pure performance standpoint, he been one of the strongest drivers over the past few seasons at Bristol. That may surprise some people because he isn't talked about a lot it seems. He found majority of his success earlier in his career. As he won 5 times from 2002 to 2006 seasons. But he is quietly returning to form at this track though. As he have knocked off 4 straight Top 15 finishes and have finished 5 of the past 7 inside the top 15 overall. Including 2 Top 5 finishes over his past 4 races as well. That is all great and I am personally all for it. However, he does not have a lot going for him from a momentum standpoint. He was very consistent to start the season, but it all seems to be lost since Daytona. He been alright, but there no wow factor to him and the top 5 potential isn't there. I felt like that have dragged down his fantasy value all season long. He doesn't seem to have the speed to finish inside the top 5 and that will (and have) affected him.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson needs a big bounce back race after seeing his chase chances possibly go up in smoke as AJ Dinger wrecked him on the final lap at Watkins Glenn. But if there may not be a better place than Bristol for him to do that. He been awesome in the past two Bristol races, but he found ways to find the garage early. Earlier this season, he was very strong. I was impressed how quickly he moved through the running order. He started 25th and was able make his way up to the top 7 before lap 70. That was before a trackbar issue sent him to garage early. In 5 career starts, he have posted 3 finishes of 12th or better. And then of course his past two races where he have had top 5 potential before issues. There really not a lot to say about Larson honestly. He will bring top 5 upside and he will make that high line work better than most out there. The problem will be weather or not he can finish. If he can stay on the lead lap and not find trouble, then he will have something for the JGR and Penske boys. High-risk/high-reward as usual for Kyle Larson!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have been very good at Bristol recently, but the problem is he is mist of a major slump. I cannot ever remember Jimmie Johnson being this bad from this long of stench. Literally been top 3 or nothing since April! Over the past 15 Sprint Cup races, he have finished only 3 races inside the top 10 (all three ended in 3rd place). So he have finished 10 of those 15 races in 16th or worse. Digging deeper, he have finished 22nd or worse in 7 of those 15 races. So that is not very encouraging, but he does have good numbers at Bristol recently. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He finished 23rd earlier this season, but he was running top 5 good until he had to make an unscheduled pit stop. That eventually led to him finishing a lap down, that was start of this slump for him that he been in. However before a disappointing finish in the spring time, he posted 3 straight Top 4 finishes at this track. He has very strong numbers dating back to 2009 (solid 15-race stench for him), but I don't trust him at the moment. In my opinion, there are far too many better options out there. HMS is down on speed, so his upside get limited. When you are a elite driver and your ceiling is only top 10, there really no point in consideration. Could Johnson go out and knock out a top 5 finish on Saturday night? Sure. Do I think he will? No. Roster him if you want, but I like my odds of avoiding him better though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: My big concern (as I mentioned in my Fantasy Nascar update) entering Watkins Glen was Truex avoiding back luck. It took him to the final lap, but found away to get a disappointing finish. In other news, cars are fast and water is wet. Anyways, what should you expect from him at Bristol? Hmm, I am not really sure. He have struggled to get good finishes at Bristol lately. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.8 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He posted his best overall performance this past spring since spring 2012 race. He was top 10 strong back in April, but ended about 14th place. He held an 10.0 average running position and 104.9 driver rating. At Bristol, Truex have not found much success in regards to top 10 finishes. In 21 career starts, he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes and they both ended inside the top 3. When looking at his past 10 races at this track, he have struggled in general. Only 5 times have he finished inside the top 14. 4 of his past 6 races at this track have ended in 28th or worse. When you combine his bad luck this season, with his track record. I don't know if you are going to like the outcome.
88-Jeff Gordon: It is still pretty weird for me to see Jeff Gordon name listed next to the #88 car. Several times I have made the mistake of type #24 next to his name. Just figured I would throw that useless information out there. Gordon is starting to get warmed inside the #88 machine and that is great for us fantasy players. He probably won't be anything beyond a low-teen driver though. We have to face the reality that HMS is down on speed and it will limit Gordon's potential. I am not even going to look at past stats for Gordon, but they are irrelevant in my mind. I am not entirely sure what to expect from Gordon as he still getting back to swing of things, but I am pretty confident that he can run top 15 at Bristol on Saturday night. And for those asking, I don't think this will be his final race of the season.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter- @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac should be in good shape if there are no winner between now and Richmond, unless he have a really bad race, which means Bristol is the only real bullet he have to miss. I am not worried about him, as he have a pretty good history at this place. His teammate ran extremely well earlier this season here, so he also have that going for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 96.6 driver rating. One of my favorite JMac's memories was back in 2014 night race. On that night, he led 148 laps on his way to an 8th place finish. He arguably had the car to beat in the race and could've won, however he had a slow pit stop that lined him up in the wrong line. Once he lost the clean air, his car was never quite as good and faded to 8th place. Believe it or not, he was really strong in 2014 here. In the spring, he was running top 5 good before Dale Jr put him into the wall. Bristol have been very good to him over the past 10 races. As he have finished 7 of his past 10 races at Bristol inside the top 14. Including 4 straight finishes of 8th-14th place. Also 5 of his past 7 have ended in that range as well. Want to go back even further? 10 of his past 14 races at Bristol have ended in 14th or better. With 6 of those 10 Top 14 finishes ending inside the top 10. Overall, he was very good last season on the short tracks and Bristol was no different. He ran great in both races and performed a little better than he finished. He had finishes of 11th and 14th. Earlier this season, he finished 13th and that was probably one of his 4 worst races (pure performance wise) since the 2009 season at BMS. Headed into practice, I view him as a top 15 fantasy option.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski and Penske have been one of the series at Bristol over the past couple seasons and they are really the only organization who been within striking distance this season of JGR. Keselowski have ran okay at Bristol recently and should have a good shot this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. Not very good numbers overall, but he have some questionable/misleading races though. In August 2014 (5 races ago), he finished 14th but he hit the wall while running top 5 (had one of the cars in that race). There were only 14 cars on lead lap, so he was able to limp to the finish on lead lap. He followed that up with an strong 2nd place in the summer race (in 2014). He led 40 laps while finishing runner-up to teammate Logano. He was top 3 good for that race in my opinion. Last season he posted finishes of 35th and 6th. In the spring, race he finished 20 laps down. He finished 20 laps down because him and teammate Joey Logano wrecked with each other around lap 19. He came back in August (2015) and finished 6th after starting 6th. He didn't have the car to beat that day, but he had a good enough car to contend for a top 10 finish. Keselowski have only posted 5 Top 10 finishes (all ended in 6th or better), but 3 of those 5 have happened in the summer (August) race. Including back-to-back seasons with finishes of 6th and 2nd places. I think Brad will be a top 10 contender this week, but I am not sold on him being a possible race-winner contender. However, he is running very well right now so I wouldn't be shocked either.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon just needs to be consistent over the next couple races and he will likely make the chase. However he was in much better shape before his problems at WGI. So he cannot have problems at Bristol or he could be in a tad trouble when it comes to making the chase. As from a fantasy vantage point, Dillon should be relatively safe choice this week. He have found okay success in his first few starts this place. Over his past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 65.4 driver rating. His numbers are misleading there. In 5 career starts, he have posted 3 finishes from 10th-13th place. Which is pretty solid for him overall. But when he had bad performances, they were ugly from a pure performance standpoint. In August 2014, he had his worst performance (and finish). He finished 7 laps down and posted an 35.6 driver rating. A good driving rating for Dillon in his rookie year was in the mid-60s or 70. That should tell you a lot about his perform for that race. Earlier this season (spring race), he struggled again and finished 26th. While posting an 49.6 driver rating. We all know what Dillon capable of and he was not very good in the spring race. So Dillon have had his bad share of races and his good share as well. Headed into the weekend, I view Dillon as a low to middle teen-type driver.
4-Kevin Harvick: Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske have dominated the recent races as organizations, but Kevin Harvick makes a strong case of one of the best individual performers at Bristol. However, I do believe he will be an afterthought with most people having the JGR guys and Logano on their fantasy radar primarily. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 114.4 driver rating. Since joining SHR, he have had two poor finishes and three solid finishes.. In his debut at Bristol in the #4 car, he finished 39th after running top 5 most of the event. He led 28 laps and still posted 99.1 driver rating. Even though he got involved in an accident during second half of the race. Still very strong! The following spring (2015), he once again running top 5 and led 184 laps before bad luck struck once again. He finished 38th on that day. His other three finishes have ended in 11th, 2nd and 7th. The good thing is? All three of those good finishes have came in 3 of his past 4 races. Including back-to-back top 7 finishes at this place. Weather he is able to finish out races or at Bristol, he have been incredibly strong. His lowest driver rating in his past 5 starts at BMS is 99.2 and that was a race where he finished 50+ laps down. I think Harvick is one of the safest bets this week and he is on my short-list as possible winners.
5-Kasey Kahne: Logically with HMS struggles this season, you would think that Kasey Kahne would be affected the most by it. However, the #5 team really haven't seen much regression in terms of performance compared to 2014 and 2015 seasons. He still running in the low to middle teens every week. Not much have changed in my opinion. How will he do at Bristol? Good question and it hard to say. This use to be a very good track for him, but that can be said about several racetrack for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 26.3 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. From 2010 to 2014 (the spring race), Kasey Kahne was stud at this place. Only once did he finish worse than 11th place and swept the top 2 in 2013. However, over his past 4 races he have not finished better than 16th place. He probably had his best performance in that span this past spring though. In that race, I would say he was close to being a top 10 driver. With that said, he have finished off the lead lap in the 3 previous races. He finished 2 laps down in last August's race. He led 40 laps in August 2014 race, but basically took the wall down late in that race. Right after a pit stop, too. So I guess it not that he haven't had speed or just shitty performances, but more so he haven't gotten any good finishes. He is far from the driver he was in 2013 races, but I think he is very capable of running top 15. That where he have ran this season as well. At Bristol, he may be able to sneak closer to the top 10 than usual. I am not banking on it though.
11-Denny Hamlin: I said it for weeks that Hamlin was on the upwing and he cashed in at Watkins Glenn. I will admit, I had much higher hopes than usual for him but I didn't think he would win. But I knew it was only matter of time though. Now he goes to a place where he have found decent success at in his career. However, he have struggled to find good finishes lately. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 22.3 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. He only have 3 Top 20 finishes over his past 7 races, with 2 of those those ending inside the top 6. Last August, he posted an 2nd place finish which was his best effort since winning in August 2012. Hamlin doesn't really have a lot going for him lately at this track, but I think he has more going for him this season though. Joe Gibbs Racing have dominated this season and Hamlin is starting to hit his stride (as I figured he would) in the second half of the season. Not only that, but he also has a lot of momentum entering this race. He currently have 4 straight Top 9 finishes this season and have been an excellent qualifier all year as well. If you gonna use Hamlin this week, I think you have to look past his recent record here. He does have good potential if you can overlook that. In fact, I am fairly high on him this week overall.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr started off the season fairly hot (for him) and a consistent top 16 finisher up until around Kansas. Since then he have cooled off considerably and now is a questionable play at this point of the season. If you didn't jump on the Stenhouse's value early on, then you probably missed out. If there is a place to use him then Bristol would be it though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. His worst finish ever here is 21st place and that was last August. He finished 21st in that race, but he spun and had to make a recovery to a respectable finish. Earlier this season, he spun again but was able to rebound to an solid 16th place finish. Overall, he have finished 5 of his 7 career races inside the top 16. Including 3 straight Top 6 finishes from spring 2014 to spring 2015. He does not have much momentum going for him at the moment. But if you are going to use him this season, then I think this is the week to use him then. Bristol is statically his best racetrack in my opinion.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy use to be a stud here at old Bristol, but him and new Bristol doesn't seems to mash too well (in terms of finishes). Nevertheless, he is having a great season and seems to be hitting his stride. As he have finished 7 straight races inside the top 12, with 4 straight top 9 finishes as well. Earlier this season, he was one of the JGR cars who kept blowing tires and finished 38th. Speed wise, I say he could have had the best car but we never found out. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.3 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. As much bad luck as Rowdy have had here, he have posted two top 11 finishes over his past 3 summer races. In fact, he finished 8th in last summer's race and led 192 laps on that night. He had the car to beat but he had a pit road penalty that put him a lap down. Then he had to charge back through the field after getting back on the lead lap. Rowdy is running as good as anyone right now, so I think he is very capable of being the driver he was before the repave. Will he? I don't know, but last August he showed flashes of it. If he can stay out of trouble, then I would consider the 18 car as one of the favorites.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is a stud at this track and only have gotten better since joining JGR (as he should). JGR is the best team in the series on type of track and proven in the past why they should be highly regarded. Edwards this past spring dominated his way to another win at BMS. Not the first time he have found success and he been the best driver here the last few seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 116.6 driver rating. Overall, he have finished 7th or better in 4 of the past 5 races. Also, he won twice in that 5 race span. In fact, he have won 4 times in 24 starts at this track. If we being technical, he have won 4 times in his last 16 races. In August 2013, he was extremely strong and probably had the car to beat. He led 119 laps on that day, but had a engine let go and finished 39th place. Another interesting fact about Edwards? Over the past 6 races, he have led least 74 laps in 5 of his past 6 races. He have led in 6 of his past 8 Bristol races overall. One of the biggest reasons for his success? He have qualified 3rd or better in 5 of his past 6 races. 4 of those 6 races have resulted in 7th or 1st. He is on my short-list of possible race winners.
20-Matt Kenseth: I don't think there is a driver who dominates Bristol, who is more underrated than Matt Kenseth. He is easily one of the best drivers in the series here, but yet he doesn't get enough credit in my opinion. It could be because he doesn't always finish out races here, but make my words he always a major threat though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. Kenseth was very strong this past spring and probably had the second or third best car (at times the best car), as he led 142 laps. But he hit the wall multiple times before having to go to the garage for repairs. Last August, he also found problems, that time it was a blown engine. Prior to that, he had finished 3rd or better in 3 of 4 previous races. Including 2 wins. So overall, he have won twice over the past 6 races. He also have led in 5 of those 6 races. He been consistent at Bristol long before he joined JGR though. Over the past 14 races here, he have posted 9 Top 10 finishes. 6 of those 9 races have ended inside the top 5. He also have some momentum on his side entering the weekend. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes. Including finishes of 1st and 2nd at Indy and New Hampshire. I really like Kenseth overall as a fantasy option this week, in fact I have very high hopes for all of the JGR drivers. Kenseth is definitely on my fantasy radar!
21-Ryan Blaney: I keep my eye on the fantasy nascar community browsing site to site and my biggest surprise is the lack of love for Ryan Blaney. I absolutely love him this week and I think this is one of the places where he is gonna be really strong. He finished 11th earlier this season and ran around that area for much of the race. He also been very good in the lower level series. He have recorded wins in both Xfinity series and Truck series. Not every rookie in the Sprint Cup Series can say that at Bristol Motor Speedway. I think Blaney have some great potential this weekend and he will be a good sleeper that most people won't think about. If he have a good pair of practices on Friday, then I wouldn't rule out a top 10 from him. For now, I would say he can be a top 15 fantasy selection. And remember, he get support from Penske and they usually run pretty well here, too. That should only further back a strong case for him this week.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have been one of the very best in the series at Bristol and as it widely known that Logano have won the past two summer races. Will he be able to win 3 straight summer races? Sure, nothing is impossible. However, I think it will be very difficult to do. In other words, the odds are stacked against him. But never count out Joey, that's for sure! He been very strong in general at Bristol recently in general. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 104.6 driver rating. As I mentioned earlier, he won back the past two summer races, but he been pretty good in the summer time since 2010. Over the past 6 summer races, he have finished 18th or better every time. He have finished 8th or better in every summer race since the 2012 season (last 4 races). And 5th or better in his last three starts in the summer race. Overall, he have finished 5 of the past 8 races at BMS inside the top 10. He finished 10th earlier this season, but I think Penske was still searching for some speed. They have found it now and are now the closest team to JGR. He also have plenty of momentum and finsihing consistent as anyone else. Over the past 10 Sprint Cup Series races this season, he have posted 8 Top 10 finishes. With 6 of those 8 ending inside the top 5. Including 3 of the past 4 races resulting in 7th or better. Logano have a lot going for him and have be one of the drivers to watch for this weekend.
24-Chase Elliott: Chase Elliott didn't do too bad a few weeks ago at Watkins Glenn and finished 16th. That is far from terrible, however he have finished now 7 straight races outside of the top 10. In the first 15 races this season, he only finished worse than 9th place in 3 races. So basically he have tripled his number of non-top 10 finishes over the past 7 cup races. That's pretty incredible! I know, I know that's not something to brag about. But still that's crazy to me! On the plus side, he did finish 4th earlier this season at Bristol and had close about a top 5 car (performance wise). But honestly, I am not expecting him to back that up though. I think HMS being behind is starting affect Elliott (as his recent finishes/performance have shown) to a certain extent. Obviously a lot of bad finishes are to due to bad luck. But we aren't seeing him up front inside the top 5 like we saw earlier in the season either. Regardless of the result. Headed into the weekend, I view him more of an top 15 driver with clear upside.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a pretty good season and I expect that to continue at one of his better tracks. He always been a solid short track racer, too. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 87.8 driver rating. Right off the bat, you probably notice his solid 12.5 average running position which is good enough for 6th-best over that 4-race span. He have finished 16th or better in 5 straight races at Bristol. More recently, his numbers are even more encouraging. As he have posted 3 straight Top 10 finishes over his past 3 races at this place. Overall, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 7 races. If want to go a little deeper, he have finished 7 of the past 10 races inside the top 13 at Bristol. Obviously good chunk of that data is from before the repave. The past few seasons is the data you want to look, but still serves my point of Newman being very reliable. Weather it on old Bristol or new Bristol, Newman have been one of the most consistent fantasy options in the series. And I don't think that will change on Saturday night.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch may be one of the best kept secrets this week as nobody really have talked about him much. He have found plenty of success at this track and I think he is in store for some more this weekend. He finished 3rd earlier this season and led 40 laps. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.3 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 106.1 driver rating. From a pure performance standpoint, he been one of the strongest drivers over the past few seasons at Bristol. That may surprise some people because he isn't talked about a lot it seems. He found majority of his success earlier in his career. As he won 5 times from 2002 to 2006 seasons. But he is quietly returning to form at this track though. As he have knocked off 4 straight Top 15 finishes and have finished 5 of the past 7 inside the top 15 overall. Including 2 Top 5 finishes over his past 4 races as well. That is all great and I am personally all for it. However, he does not have a lot going for him from a momentum standpoint. He was very consistent to start the season, but it all seems to be lost since Daytona. He been alright, but there no wow factor to him and the top 5 potential isn't there. I felt like that have dragged down his fantasy value all season long. He doesn't seem to have the speed to finish inside the top 5 and that will (and have) affected him.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson needs a big bounce back race after seeing his chase chances possibly go up in smoke as AJ Dinger wrecked him on the final lap at Watkins Glenn. But if there may not be a better place than Bristol for him to do that. He been awesome in the past two Bristol races, but he found ways to find the garage early. Earlier this season, he was very strong. I was impressed how quickly he moved through the running order. He started 25th and was able make his way up to the top 7 before lap 70. That was before a trackbar issue sent him to garage early. In 5 career starts, he have posted 3 finishes of 12th or better. And then of course his past two races where he have had top 5 potential before issues. There really not a lot to say about Larson honestly. He will bring top 5 upside and he will make that high line work better than most out there. The problem will be weather or not he can finish. If he can stay on the lead lap and not find trouble, then he will have something for the JGR and Penske boys. High-risk/high-reward as usual for Kyle Larson!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have been very good at Bristol recently, but the problem is he is mist of a major slump. I cannot ever remember Jimmie Johnson being this bad from this long of stench. Literally been top 3 or nothing since April! Over the past 15 Sprint Cup races, he have finished only 3 races inside the top 10 (all three ended in 3rd place). So he have finished 10 of those 15 races in 16th or worse. Digging deeper, he have finished 22nd or worse in 7 of those 15 races. So that is not very encouraging, but he does have good numbers at Bristol recently. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He finished 23rd earlier this season, but he was running top 5 good until he had to make an unscheduled pit stop. That eventually led to him finishing a lap down, that was start of this slump for him that he been in. However before a disappointing finish in the spring time, he posted 3 straight Top 4 finishes at this track. He has very strong numbers dating back to 2009 (solid 15-race stench for him), but I don't trust him at the moment. In my opinion, there are far too many better options out there. HMS is down on speed, so his upside get limited. When you are a elite driver and your ceiling is only top 10, there really no point in consideration. Could Johnson go out and knock out a top 5 finish on Saturday night? Sure. Do I think he will? No. Roster him if you want, but I like my odds of avoiding him better though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: My big concern (as I mentioned in my Fantasy Nascar update) entering Watkins Glen was Truex avoiding back luck. It took him to the final lap, but found away to get a disappointing finish. In other news, cars are fast and water is wet. Anyways, what should you expect from him at Bristol? Hmm, I am not really sure. He have struggled to get good finishes at Bristol lately. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.8 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He posted his best overall performance this past spring since spring 2012 race. He was top 10 strong back in April, but ended about 14th place. He held an 10.0 average running position and 104.9 driver rating. At Bristol, Truex have not found much success in regards to top 10 finishes. In 21 career starts, he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes and they both ended inside the top 3. When looking at his past 10 races at this track, he have struggled in general. Only 5 times have he finished inside the top 14. 4 of his past 6 races at this track have ended in 28th or worse. When you combine his bad luck this season, with his track record. I don't know if you are going to like the outcome.
88-Jeff Gordon: It is still pretty weird for me to see Jeff Gordon name listed next to the #88 car. Several times I have made the mistake of type #24 next to his name. Just figured I would throw that useless information out there. Gordon is starting to get warmed inside the #88 machine and that is great for us fantasy players. He probably won't be anything beyond a low-teen driver though. We have to face the reality that HMS is down on speed and it will limit Gordon's potential. I am not even going to look at past stats for Gordon, but they are irrelevant in my mind. I am not entirely sure what to expect from Gordon as he still getting back to swing of things, but I am pretty confident that he can run top 15 at Bristol on Saturday night. And for those asking, I don't think this will be his final race of the season.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter- @JeffNathans18