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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits (Week 4)

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Starts/Sits -

***Scoring is based on CBS Sports format

Starts -

Matthew Stafford - For the 3rd straight week, Stafford get the call in the start section. But you cannot argue with the matchups he has had so far this season. He played the Colt ridiculous banged up secondary in week 1. He scotched them for an easy 300+ yards and 3 Touchdowns. Followed that up in week 2 and had a respectable game vs the Titans. But he was robbed multiple touchdowns by penalties. And then last week, he lit up the Packers' secondary for nearly 400 yards and again multiple touchdowns. In week 4? He get the Chicago banged up defense, if you are a Stafford owner then you look like a evil genius by drafting him. He been a top 5 Quarterback, since Cooter took over this offense midway through last season. Stafford has turned into the player everyone expected him to be, when he was drafted No.1 overall to the Lions in 2009. The Bears defense through 3 weeks has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game at 20.3 points allowed. This defense has only faced the likes of Houston (Osweiler), Philadelphia (Wentz) and Dallas (Prescott). So far, 2 of their first 3 games has been against rookies. And the other Quarterback, doesn't even have one full season under his belt. Stafford however isn't an inexperienced QB, he is putting up elite numbers. If the Bears defense can allow 20.6 fantasy points on average, then what will he do to them? If you are playing an owner with him, then I don't think the outcome is good for you!

Phillip Rivers - Rivers also was apart of last week's start section and he did pretty well for him vs the Colts. He threw for 330 yards against the Colts, even though he didn't throw any touchdown passes. That's surprising, since it was tight ball game expecting both teams to air it out often. Which Rivers did, as he was 26 for 29 on passing. However the lone touchdowns were on defense on by Melvin Gordon (Running Back). On the plus side, Rivers has another great matchup on tap against the Saints' defense. They have been statically terrible against the pass for awhile now and this 2016 defense has already proven they are not different. Through 3 games, the Saints has allowed the 17th-most fantasy points per game. That sounds encouraging, only the 17th-most, but it is really not. Why? Well because firstly the opponent are usually playing from ahead (they are 0-3 right now). Secondly, team have been able to run the ball pretty effectively against them. Which means the passing game isn't needed as much once they get into the redzone. They have only allowed 3 passing touchdowns this season on defense.Which is great but then you take into consideration, they have allowed the 8th-most passing yards through 3 games. Not good! Rivers should be able to post about 250-325 passing yards and a touchdown at least against the Saints. If the Chargers get a early lead, I could see a lot of Melvin Gordon in the second half though.

Kirk Cousins - Alright I will give some love to Captain Kirk this week! He needs it in Washington it sounds like. Last week, he had a pretty good game overall and led the Redskins to their first win of the season. And he get another solid match-up in week 4 against the Browns. The Browns have struggled this season against opposing Quarterbacks. Through 3 games, this defensive unit has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points per game (22.8) and is tied for the 4th-most touchdown passes allowed to Quarterbacks (7 in total). That should be a very good thing for Kirk Cousins, as he has thrown for at least one touchdown pass in each of his past two games this season. On top of that, the Browns has allowed the 11th-most passing yards this season. How has Kirk done this season? Oh, he only has thrown for 295+ yards in each of first three games. Including going over 330+ in 2 of those 3 starts. Currently, he ranked 2nd in the NFL in passing yards to only Drew Brees. To be fair, he also has had 16 less passing attempts and 14 less completions as well. If he kept his current pace of 12.5 yards per completion, he would have about 100 yards more than Brees though. Trust in Kirk and start him!

Running Backs -

Melvin Gordon - Melvin Gordon have jumped quick out of the gate, while scoring 4 touchdowns in 3 games. Which is destroying his touchdown total of 0 from a year ago. A big reason for that was because of his workload. Last season, he was splitting carries with Danny Woodhead. With woodhead being out for the year, Gordon is now a cowbell back. Meaning he getting all  (or most) of the carries and last week, the Chargers did exactly that. Not often was Gordon off the field, when the Chargers offense was on the field. That's great for his owners and things don't get much better vs the Saints' run defense. Why? Well, if you watch Monday night football then you already know the answer to that. Coleman and Freeman craved up the Saints' defense for 53 fantasy points total. On about 200 yards and 3 Touchdowns on the ground and 100 through the air, with another touchdown. Do I need to say anymore? Alright and they also allowed nearly 150 yards and 3 touchdowns to Oakland's backfield in week 1 as well. Just in weeks 1 and 3, they has allowed about 170 yards and little over one touchdowns per game. If the Chargers offensive line can create some holes for Gordon, then you can expect a major stat-line for him. He has a monster matchup ahead of him, his owners should be licking their chops right now!

C.J Anderson - C.J Anderson didn't really ever have a chance against the Bengals as they focused in on him all day long, so he couldn't ever get rolling on the ground. That's the bad news, but get the poor taste out of your mouth. Because he will now get an match-up vs the Tampa Bay Bucs who allowed Todd Gurley go off for 80+ yards and 2 Touchdowns. That's ugly because he has a terrible O-line. C.J Anderson on the other hand will have it much easier, as the defense will have to keep it honest and guard the pass and run. The broncos has proven they can beat you with passing the ball, so I highly doubt they re-try what they did last week vs Gurley. Through 3 weeks, Anderson has produced 15.1 fantasy points per game with 258 yards and 2 Touchdowns. In week 4, I would expect close to 100 yards and another touchdown out of Anderson. He has a solid matchup that should be pretty favorable. Start him!

LeGarrette Blount - Blount is off to a great start this season and should continue his dominant ways vs the Buffalo Bills. With the Quarterback situation in New England being iffy at the moment, I would expect the Pats to depend heavier on Blount. He's a powerful runner with the ability to steamroll defenders. As the game goes on and the more they use him, you will see these defense get worn down. As you would expect, the chance for him to break a long run will increase. Much like last week vs Houston. They kept handling the ball off to him in the second and then in the 4th Quarterback, he finally ripped off an long up the middle for the touchdown. We all knew it was coming, but the question was when. This week, he has a even more favorable matchup vs the Bills. The Bills has struggled vs the run in general. Through 3 games, they has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game at 21.5 points. The Bills also has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns so far this season.

Wide Receivers -

Marvin Jones - Jones had a monster day vs the Packers, as he produced 205 yards and 2 Touchdown passes. That was on just 6 catches (8 targets), too. Impressive! More impressive? After three games, he leads the lead in fantasy points per game (17.6) and total yards (406) with 2 touchdown passes as well. He has thus far been a monster fantasy draft value as he was drafted outside of the 6th round in most fantasy drafts. He get another great match-up vs the Chicago banged up defense. The numbers say that the Bears defense is pretty good, only allowed the 19th-most fantasy points per game. But don't be fooled though. Through two games, the number one wide on the opposing offense has least scored 7.1 points per game. In fact, two of three No.1 Wide outs has scored a touchdown and double-digit points. Jones should be auto-start going forward in my opinion, as he has taken over the number spot in the Detroit offense. Trust Jones and roll with him!

DeSean Jackson - Jackson is off to nice start in the Washington's offense with 2 10+ points games in 3 starts this season so far. He will look to keep the good times rolling vs the Browns on Sunday afternoon. Through 2 games, the Cleveland's defense has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game of 31.8 points. They have also gave up over 110 yards and a touchdown pass to the No.1 wide receiver. Both Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry both got double digit targets in their games and both had 7 receptions. That's a great sign for Jackson's fantasy production this weekend. On top of that, The Browns defense has allowed 6 touchdowns through 3 games. So that's two touchdown per game on average. With only Reed (even though there are a couple pretty good wide receivers in Washington) as the other relevant options in the Washington offense, so good chance he can the endzone.

Travis Benjamin - With no more Woodhead or Allen (two of the best options in San Diego headed into the season), someone will have to keep up the stack. And one of the big reason they wanted Benjamin in San Diego was because his pure speed. He can burn just about any secondary and the Saints will have a tough time stopping him. The Saints defense will not be able to contain the speedster, and there isn't many other good options to consider. And if Gates don't play, you can expect even more targets and yards from QB Phillip Rivers. Benjamin is probably an solid WR3 headed into the weekend matchup, considering if Gates plays. He has more upside, if Gates sits out another game. I am expecting Gates to play though. In the first two weeks, at least two wide receivers has eclipsed at least 86 yards receiving. Since Allen went down, he has posted least 82 yards in each of his last two games. He should be good for least 75-80 yards and possibly a touchdown.

Tight Ends -

Eric Ebron - Ebron is off to great start this season with least 46 yards receiving this season and has topped the 50 yards mark over his past two games. More good news? His targets has climbed in all three games this season, from 7 in week to 9 in last week's game vs Green Bay. As that trend as improved, so has his yards. In week 1, he only posted 46 yards. Last week vs Green Bay? 69 yards receiving. It also looks like he has grab a hold of the number two option in the Detroit offense for the time being. With Tate not seeing how he has done so far this season. If Ebron can keep up this production than he should be a top 10 scorer at end of the year. This weekend, he should be able to take advantage of the banged up Chicago defense. 

Zach Miller - Miller is a good start in Chicago, despite this offense still being a complete mess. Last week vs the Cowboys, he was able to take advantage of the Dallas' lackluster defense, as he scored multiple touchdowns in garbage time. Most of his production came last week vs the Cowboys. Otherwise, he has gotten 7 receptions (on 9 targets) through the first two games this season. Not exactly good numbers, but he should be able to pounce on the Detroit defense though. They has been very bad vs tight ends this season so far. Through 3 games, they has allowed 17.9 fantasy points per game. The next-worst team vs tight ends? Falcons at 16.2. Then? 14.3 per game (Cowboys). The Lions has allowed the 9th-most yards this season to tight ends and the most touchdown this season vs tight ends. Miller should be able to get a solid 50 yards with about 4 to 6 receptions.

Sits -

Quarterbacks -

Eli Manning - Eli Manning is off to good start this season overall. In week 1, he posted 3 touchdown passes. In week 2 and 3, he was able to top 350+ yards in both games. However, he have quite a tough matchup vs the Vikings on Sunday afternoon though. The Vikings has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game (17.8) this season. Eli Manning is much a mobile QB, so that aspect is gone. If he was a more of a mobile QB, then he would have addition fantsay value this week. Otherwise this will be a tough test for him. As over the past two weeks, he only has posted 1 touchdown pass. Don't expect him to go for 350+ yards like he has in this recent two games, either. That what has been saving him for the most part. The Vikings defense also has faced some pretty good Quarterbacks over the past two weeks. In Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. Rodgers only posted 216 passing yards and Newton had 262 passing yards. Between the two, they only had one touchdown pass. Not a good sign for Eli Manning and Co. Sit him!

Jameis Winston - Winston is have to a great start this season, but I wouldn't trust him too much vs the Denver Broncos defense. Guys such Andy Dalton and Andrew Luck in recent games has struggled vs this strong defensive unit. Through three weeks, he has allowed 9th-fewest fantasy points per game. Through three games, no Quarterback has posted more than 206 passing yards. The only thing that save Cam Newton in week 1 was, he was able to gain 54 rushing yards and an additional touchdown on the ground. So two touchdowns in total. Great for him, but the past two Quarterbacks haven't been too lucky. Winston is coming off an 405-yard performance vs the Rams, but he also passed the ball a ridiculous 58 times as well. He won't get even close to that number this weekend.

Running Backs -

Rashad Jennings - If you are a Jennings owners, then the future road for your running back isn't a road you are going to like. Starting this weekend in Minnesota! First off, he has a bad match-up vs the Vikings. Which would be doable I guess, if he didn't have a lot of competition in New York, who will all be hounding him for carries on a weekly basis. Jennings also missed last week's game, which is concerning as well. Not only is he coming off an injury, he also he has a noticeable injury history as well. As for this week vs Vikings, it is a tough match-up based on what we has seen from them this season. Through 3 games, they has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game (14.3) this season. The Vikings has allowed 16 catches out of the backfield for 151 yards this season. Problem? Jennings not exactly a good pass-catcher. So he doesn't have that value to fall back on, big reason why Vereen was used so often out of he backfield to catch passes, instead of Jennings.

Jerrick McKinnon - I am not ready to trust anyone in the Vikings backfield, because right now it too messy to figure out. Jerrick clearly is the favorite to get bulk of the workload, as we saw last week. But he didn't really produce much, as he ran less than 3 yards per carry, even if it was bad matchup vs Carolina. Still, I find it concerning because the Vikings offensive line is very suspect overall and couldn't get a talent like Adrian Peterson going in limited time this season. If they cannot open up lanes for one of the greatest backs in the current eras, what makes you feel confident about them helping McKinnon. Not disrespect to anyone on the bandwagon, but until we start to see good numbers on consistent basis. I would say no back in Minnesota is anything beyond an flex play. In a bad match-up probably not even that.

Wide Receivers -

Golden Tate - I am not going to sit here and tell you to sit Golden Tate, if you are pretty thin at the Wide Receiver position. However, if you have multiple good options then I would highly recommend you consider putting him on the bench. Why? Well, there are several reasons to consider it. The first being, I don't trust Golden Tate. He isn't getting enough targets and production to be consider a legit fantasy option or a legit option in Detroit. Through three games, he has less yards, catches and touchdown passes than both Jones and Boldin. And you can add Reddick and Ebron to that list as well, if you consider them. In fact, over the past two games he has only produced 6 catches for 53 yards. Jones and Ebron topped both of those number in last week's game vs Green Bay alone. While Jones and Bodlin both has caught touchdown passes in the past two games. In fact, 4 players in the Detroit offense has caught more passes over the past 2 games than Tate has. Just sit him, if you can afford to!

Brandon Marshall - Much like Tate above this is more of a questionable seasonal production than potential issue. However unlike Tate, Marshall doesn't have a good matchup this Sunday vs the Seahawks. It's a terrible match-up vs the Seahawks. This is just one week removed from an offense that saw their QB throw for 6 interceptions vs Kansas City. Marshall was complete non-factor vs KC last Sunday, as he sat most of the week because of injury from the Bills' game. It wasn't too big of a surprise that he wasn't a factor though, as he had a tough match-up on hand with him coming off an injury. Sadly for him, Settle is usually a pretty tough road to take. Richard Sherman will likely be covering Marshall all day and I don't have to tell most of you, what a great defender he is. If you can bench Marshall then you probably should. But if you don't have anyone else better available, then you need to start him.

Tight Ends -

Martellus Bennett - Bennett was able to featured as the primary tight end vs the Texans, as the Pats basically used Gronkowski as a decoy in the passing game. Safe to say things didn't go according to plan on the Patriots' end with an rookie QB. Bennett had multiple shots at touchdown passes, but he either was late on route or Brissett missed him. In fact, on one play he was being covered by a linebacker on a 3rd and goal play. If Brissett would have looked to left, he would probably found Bennett for a touchdown. Anyways that was last week and this is this week. The big difference? Gronkowski will be more healthy than he was last week, there is too much uncertainly about the quarterback situation and the Bills has only allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to Tight ends. For now, Bennett is nothing than a okay TE2 play.

Gary Barnidge - Barnidge finally had a good game this season last weekend, it was about time two. His first two games were just pitifully. They were so bad, his fantasy production pretty much double his fantasy points for the season. In the first two weeks, he was able to put up just 37 yards and 3.7 points. In week 3 (last week)? He put up 67 yards on 5 catches with 6.7 fantasy points. He also almost matched his targets with 6 last week compared to weeks 1 and 2. Not good numbers to have from a seasonal point of view. So far this season, he only has 13 targets through two games. And it is not comforting that Kessler is the starting Quarterback for the Browns, either. Right now, I don't trust Barnidge. He had one good game, if he has back-to-back good ones then fine. However, I am not ready to jump on the bandwagon quite yet though.

****All stats are from FFToday.com

Recent Articles - 

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 1 - William Frang

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Fantasy Football Rankings Week 2 - William Frang

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 3 - William Frang 

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits - Week 3

Twitter - @MattAleza