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Patrick will enter her 5th-season at SHR as a full-time driver in the Monster Energy Nascar Series, she has struggled at the top level in Nascar. However, she has shown some sort of improvement in just about every season in the #10 car. In 2016, she had her best year ever in terms of average finish but failed to score a top 5 for the first time as a full-time driver, also posted career-low top 10 finishes. She had 0 top 10 finish in 2016, while posting 2 Top 10 finishes in 2015, 3 Top 10 finishes in 2014 and 1 top 10 finish in 2013. You would think her number of Top 20 finishes saw a huge improvement? Nope, barely at all in fact. Her total of top 20 finishes didn't see much of an uptick. In 2016, she had 14 Top 20 finishes, while posting 13 top 20 finishes (2015) and 14 Top 20 finishes in 2013.
Danica should be at her best on the intermediate tracks overall. I say the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flat tracks are all strength for her. Not to say, she is overly impressive at any of them though. However, in 2016 she was very consistent at all three-type of tracks though. I consider the intermediate tracks as her strongest type of track because of the horsepower advantage she has over the competition she is racing. Usually Danica is good for a top 25 finish with upside to finish inside the top 20 on most weekends at them. Her competition mainly will not have anything other than top 25 outlook to offer. Advantage Danica!
The intermediate tracks is a type of track that I expect her to be consistent inside the top 25 with some upside on certain weekends to finish inside the top 20. I would say her ceiling in to finish about 17th or 18th. What specific tracks will she has the best chance to perform well on? Hard to say but I would say most likely at Atlanta, Michigan and Kansas. Those are the three tracks I would try to target her at, where she has the most value. I would say Atlanta is her best track on the schedule for Danica. From a career point of view and more recently, Danica's best track is called Atlanta. Over the past 3 seasons here, she has posted an 14.0 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. While in 5 career starts at Atlanta, she has posted 18.4 career average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. Over her past 4 starts at Atlanta, she has finished 21st or better in all 4 races. Of course, she has finished 16th-21st in 3 of those 4 races. Her 6th place finish in 2014 was obvious better than usual. With that said, she posted an career-best 81.3 driver rating and most-laps spent inside the top 15 as well. In simpler terms, she had her best-performance at Atlanta. With that said, her likely range will be the low-twenties to high-teens as a potential finish!
Michigan is most likely her second-best intermediate track, it is larger than your average intermediate track but she has ran well at Michigan though. I wouldn't say that Michigan is a great track for her, but it is certainly a good enough one for her. Over the past 6 races at Michigan, she has posted 4 Top 21 finishes. With finishes between 17th-21st place. Pretty consistent, with finishes of 23rd and 25th in the other races. With that being said, she has posted better numbers in the June race than August. In the June's Michigan races, she has finishes of 21st (2016), 16th, 17th and 13th. In the August races, she has finished 3 of 4 races outside of the top 20. Not good, but no finishes worse than 25th though. If I was going to use her, then I would try to at the June's Michigan. She seems to have a knack for finishing well in June.
Short tracks are places that Danica was okay in 2016 and should be able to continue to find success with piling up top 25 finishes. I think she is a little safer at Bristol than Martinsville. She doesn't have major upside at either track though. At Bristol, she has been consistent with her finishes recently. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, she has compiled 3 Top 22 finishes. With finishes of 22nd, 9th and 18th. With finishes of 27th (three times) in her other three races. These aren't great numbers by any means and probably won't be anything beyond a top 25 finisher in 2017 either. However, not like she has been terrible either for her skill-set. At Martinsville, she has been unreliable, even though people tend to think she is a solid racer at Martinsville. It is hard to get a good read on her when looking at the numbers overall. She has made 8 starts since start of the 2013 season at Martinsville. In that span, she has been a tough driver to predict. In 4 of 8 those races, she has finishes of 16th, 7th, 17th and 12th. The other four races? 24th, 40th, 34th and 32nd. More recently, she has been good though. Over the past 4 races, she has posted 3 finishes inside the top 24. Including finishes of 16th and 7th. In fact, the spring races has been very kind to Danica overall. In 4 spring races (in March/April), she has posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. In the fall time (October races), she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or worse. Best result came in 2013 of 17th place.
The shorter flats will be another place where Danica is good enough but not really impressive at, but she could be an asset if you know how to use her in your fantasy format though. New Hampshire is her best flat track overall honestly. Since 2014, she has been pretty good at this place. When looking at it, over the past 6 races. In that span, she has finished 22nd or better in 4 of 6 races. Including a pair of finishes well in the teens. In 2016, she had finishes of 18th and 14th. She perform wasn't on par with that, but she got good results regardless. Also in that 6-race span, she has finished 24th or better in every single race. Pretty good, other than that DNF in August 2015.
She also has been good at Richmond and Phoenix as well. At Richmond, she been very good at the fall races recently. Over the past 3 races in the fall time, she has finished between 16th-19th place. The other 5 races at Richmond? 25th-34th. Not good numbers overall, but still it is something about the fall-time with her that she is getting some quality finishes. With that said, she has also performed better in the fall time than the spring time. So it is not like she has lucked into the finishes. I mean she has to a certain extend, of course. However, she been worthy of low-twenties performances. As always she will have that top 20 upside. So that makes sense, she has been able to finish in the middle to high teens. She has been good at Phoenix overall, I would say. In 9 career starts, she has posted an 26.3 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. However, she has been better lately. Over the past 5 races at PIR, she has posted 3 finishes of 22nd or better. All three of those finishes has been between 16th-22nd. Over the past couple seasons, that seems to be the range of Danica's good finishes. 16th-22nd is her likely outcome if she has a good race. Other than that, you can expect finishes outside of the top 24 and worse. But I can more often than not it will be in the high-teens and low-twenties.
Larger flats will be a real struggle for Danica Patrick in 2017, as it has been a consistent problem spot for her. She has been terrible at both tracks! I mean, she has been just trash and I don't see them being a good asset for her as a fantasy option. Statically speaking, Indy and Pocono ranked as her two worst tracks. I don't mean in the bottom 5 tracks, but worst of the worst. Ranked 22nd and 23rd of 23 tracks on the schedule. There's some serious issues with her on this type of track. In 4 career starts at Indy, she has never finish better than 22nd place. With that said, her finishes rate has been trending in the right direction. 30th place in her debut in 2013 and 42nd in 2014. How about the past two seasons? Well she has finishes of 27th (2015) and 22nd in last season race. So she has improved in the past three races at Indy. Always a good thing to see in fantasy stats. She has been much worse at Pocono though, as I have considered it as her worst-track on the schedule. In 8 career races, she has posted an 29.7 average finish. In her first 5 starts at the track, she finished no better than 29th place. Yet, no finishes worse than 37th. Yes, I know not like she set the bar high or anything. But she has shown improvements lately. Over the past three races at Pocono, she has posted two finishes between the 16th-22nd place range. Not saying that's anything special but it far better than earlier in her career.
Road courses and Plate tracks likely won't be a strength for Danica Patrick in 2017, but I do think she has the potential to have some quality runs overall. She not anything special at either type of track like so many people want to believe. So not sure why but people think she is a great road course racer. Sorry, but she is not but better than average though. She ran Open-wheel before Nascar, but that doesn't mean anything really. Now someone like Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, even Casey Mears than sure. Those former open-wheel drivers were (in Mears' case is) successful in the transition. Danica? Not so much. With that said, she has been decent when comparing to most other tracks. In 8 career starts combined at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn, she has posted 4 Top 20 finishes. She is better at Watkins Glenn though, as it is the easier track of the two. In 4 races at WGI, she has finished between 17th-21st. Pretty consistent, again not great but still pretty good compared to most other tracks. At Sonoma, she has been okay I guess. Over the past 3 seasons, she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or better. Including finishes of 18th (2014) and 19th in last season's event. So over the past 6 races, she has finished 24th or better in every race on the road course. That's pretty much lines up with what to expect from her at most tracks in 2017. I wouldn't expect a lot from her at the Plate tracks overall. Either track has been specifically great for her, at best she is looking at top 25 potential. She may luck into a top 15 or so, but she is really not that good of a plate racer honestly. I am not even going to dig into the data on her, since we all pretty much know what to expect.
Overall in 2017, I would expect Danica to be at his best on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flats. She won't be anything special at any of those tracks. Most likely her range on any given weekend will be from 16th-24th place. That been the trend over the last couple seasons for her, especially in 2016. That is the range you can expect out of her, if she has a good race and stays out of trouble. She will also run pretty well at the road courses as well. She has been very consistent inside the top 20 to top 24 over the past 3 seasons. So I would expect similar results in 2017 as well. As far the bad days, she will likely struggle at the plate tracks and larger flats the most. I think she could have good days on both type of tracks, but I am not banking on it very much though. More than likely, she will be inconsistent and have nothing beyond top 25 outlook. In 2017, I think the key for Danica will be consistent and making improvements on 2016. If she can make progress and see improvements, then it should be a overall successful season for her in 2017!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Patrick will enter her 5th-season at SHR as a full-time driver in the Monster Energy Nascar Series, she has struggled at the top level in Nascar. However, she has shown some sort of improvement in just about every season in the #10 car. In 2016, she had her best year ever in terms of average finish but failed to score a top 5 for the first time as a full-time driver, also posted career-low top 10 finishes. She had 0 top 10 finish in 2016, while posting 2 Top 10 finishes in 2015, 3 Top 10 finishes in 2014 and 1 top 10 finish in 2013. You would think her number of Top 20 finishes saw a huge improvement? Nope, barely at all in fact. Her total of top 20 finishes didn't see much of an uptick. In 2016, she had 14 Top 20 finishes, while posting 13 top 20 finishes (2015) and 14 Top 20 finishes in 2013.
Danica should be at her best on the intermediate tracks overall. I say the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flat tracks are all strength for her. Not to say, she is overly impressive at any of them though. However, in 2016 she was very consistent at all three-type of tracks though. I consider the intermediate tracks as her strongest type of track because of the horsepower advantage she has over the competition she is racing. Usually Danica is good for a top 25 finish with upside to finish inside the top 20 on most weekends at them. Her competition mainly will not have anything other than top 25 outlook to offer. Advantage Danica!
The intermediate tracks is a type of track that I expect her to be consistent inside the top 25 with some upside on certain weekends to finish inside the top 20. I would say her ceiling in to finish about 17th or 18th. What specific tracks will she has the best chance to perform well on? Hard to say but I would say most likely at Atlanta, Michigan and Kansas. Those are the three tracks I would try to target her at, where she has the most value. I would say Atlanta is her best track on the schedule for Danica. From a career point of view and more recently, Danica's best track is called Atlanta. Over the past 3 seasons here, she has posted an 14.0 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. While in 5 career starts at Atlanta, she has posted 18.4 career average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. Over her past 4 starts at Atlanta, she has finished 21st or better in all 4 races. Of course, she has finished 16th-21st in 3 of those 4 races. Her 6th place finish in 2014 was obvious better than usual. With that said, she posted an career-best 81.3 driver rating and most-laps spent inside the top 15 as well. In simpler terms, she had her best-performance at Atlanta. With that said, her likely range will be the low-twenties to high-teens as a potential finish!
Michigan is most likely her second-best intermediate track, it is larger than your average intermediate track but she has ran well at Michigan though. I wouldn't say that Michigan is a great track for her, but it is certainly a good enough one for her. Over the past 6 races at Michigan, she has posted 4 Top 21 finishes. With finishes between 17th-21st place. Pretty consistent, with finishes of 23rd and 25th in the other races. With that being said, she has posted better numbers in the June race than August. In the June's Michigan races, she has finishes of 21st (2016), 16th, 17th and 13th. In the August races, she has finished 3 of 4 races outside of the top 20. Not good, but no finishes worse than 25th though. If I was going to use her, then I would try to at the June's Michigan. She seems to have a knack for finishing well in June.
Short tracks are places that Danica was okay in 2016 and should be able to continue to find success with piling up top 25 finishes. I think she is a little safer at Bristol than Martinsville. She doesn't have major upside at either track though. At Bristol, she has been consistent with her finishes recently. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, she has compiled 3 Top 22 finishes. With finishes of 22nd, 9th and 18th. With finishes of 27th (three times) in her other three races. These aren't great numbers by any means and probably won't be anything beyond a top 25 finisher in 2017 either. However, not like she has been terrible either for her skill-set. At Martinsville, she has been unreliable, even though people tend to think she is a solid racer at Martinsville. It is hard to get a good read on her when looking at the numbers overall. She has made 8 starts since start of the 2013 season at Martinsville. In that span, she has been a tough driver to predict. In 4 of 8 those races, she has finishes of 16th, 7th, 17th and 12th. The other four races? 24th, 40th, 34th and 32nd. More recently, she has been good though. Over the past 4 races, she has posted 3 finishes inside the top 24. Including finishes of 16th and 7th. In fact, the spring races has been very kind to Danica overall. In 4 spring races (in March/April), she has posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. In the fall time (October races), she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or worse. Best result came in 2013 of 17th place.
The shorter flats will be another place where Danica is good enough but not really impressive at, but she could be an asset if you know how to use her in your fantasy format though. New Hampshire is her best flat track overall honestly. Since 2014, she has been pretty good at this place. When looking at it, over the past 6 races. In that span, she has finished 22nd or better in 4 of 6 races. Including a pair of finishes well in the teens. In 2016, she had finishes of 18th and 14th. She perform wasn't on par with that, but she got good results regardless. Also in that 6-race span, she has finished 24th or better in every single race. Pretty good, other than that DNF in August 2015.
She also has been good at Richmond and Phoenix as well. At Richmond, she been very good at the fall races recently. Over the past 3 races in the fall time, she has finished between 16th-19th place. The other 5 races at Richmond? 25th-34th. Not good numbers overall, but still it is something about the fall-time with her that she is getting some quality finishes. With that said, she has also performed better in the fall time than the spring time. So it is not like she has lucked into the finishes. I mean she has to a certain extend, of course. However, she been worthy of low-twenties performances. As always she will have that top 20 upside. So that makes sense, she has been able to finish in the middle to high teens. She has been good at Phoenix overall, I would say. In 9 career starts, she has posted an 26.3 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. However, she has been better lately. Over the past 5 races at PIR, she has posted 3 finishes of 22nd or better. All three of those finishes has been between 16th-22nd. Over the past couple seasons, that seems to be the range of Danica's good finishes. 16th-22nd is her likely outcome if she has a good race. Other than that, you can expect finishes outside of the top 24 and worse. But I can more often than not it will be in the high-teens and low-twenties.
Larger flats will be a real struggle for Danica Patrick in 2017, as it has been a consistent problem spot for her. She has been terrible at both tracks! I mean, she has been just trash and I don't see them being a good asset for her as a fantasy option. Statically speaking, Indy and Pocono ranked as her two worst tracks. I don't mean in the bottom 5 tracks, but worst of the worst. Ranked 22nd and 23rd of 23 tracks on the schedule. There's some serious issues with her on this type of track. In 4 career starts at Indy, she has never finish better than 22nd place. With that said, her finishes rate has been trending in the right direction. 30th place in her debut in 2013 and 42nd in 2014. How about the past two seasons? Well she has finishes of 27th (2015) and 22nd in last season race. So she has improved in the past three races at Indy. Always a good thing to see in fantasy stats. She has been much worse at Pocono though, as I have considered it as her worst-track on the schedule. In 8 career races, she has posted an 29.7 average finish. In her first 5 starts at the track, she finished no better than 29th place. Yet, no finishes worse than 37th. Yes, I know not like she set the bar high or anything. But she has shown improvements lately. Over the past three races at Pocono, she has posted two finishes between the 16th-22nd place range. Not saying that's anything special but it far better than earlier in her career.
Road courses and Plate tracks likely won't be a strength for Danica Patrick in 2017, but I do think she has the potential to have some quality runs overall. She not anything special at either type of track like so many people want to believe. So not sure why but people think she is a great road course racer. Sorry, but she is not but better than average though. She ran Open-wheel before Nascar, but that doesn't mean anything really. Now someone like Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, even Casey Mears than sure. Those former open-wheel drivers were (in Mears' case is) successful in the transition. Danica? Not so much. With that said, she has been decent when comparing to most other tracks. In 8 career starts combined at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn, she has posted 4 Top 20 finishes. She is better at Watkins Glenn though, as it is the easier track of the two. In 4 races at WGI, she has finished between 17th-21st. Pretty consistent, again not great but still pretty good compared to most other tracks. At Sonoma, she has been okay I guess. Over the past 3 seasons, she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or better. Including finishes of 18th (2014) and 19th in last season's event. So over the past 6 races, she has finished 24th or better in every race on the road course. That's pretty much lines up with what to expect from her at most tracks in 2017. I wouldn't expect a lot from her at the Plate tracks overall. Either track has been specifically great for her, at best she is looking at top 25 potential. She may luck into a top 15 or so, but she is really not that good of a plate racer honestly. I am not even going to dig into the data on her, since we all pretty much know what to expect.
Overall in 2017, I would expect Danica to be at his best on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flats. She won't be anything special at any of those tracks. Most likely her range on any given weekend will be from 16th-24th place. That been the trend over the last couple seasons for her, especially in 2016. That is the range you can expect out of her, if she has a good race and stays out of trouble. She will also run pretty well at the road courses as well. She has been very consistent inside the top 20 to top 24 over the past 3 seasons. So I would expect similar results in 2017 as well. As far the bad days, she will likely struggle at the plate tracks and larger flats the most. I think she could have good days on both type of tracks, but I am not banking on it very much though. More than likely, she will be inconsistent and have nothing beyond top 25 outlook. In 2017, I think the key for Danica will be consistent and making improvements on 2016. If she can make progress and see improvements, then it should be a overall successful season for her in 2017!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18