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Thursday, December 15, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Paul Menard

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Paul Menard

Car #: 27

Make: Chevy 

Season Debut: 2007 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 363

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 17 

# of Career Top 10s: 55

# of Career DNFs: 27

# of Career laps led: 312 

Career Average Finish: 20.7

Career Average Start: 20.4

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 3 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 6 

# of 2016 laps led: 20

2016 Average Finish: 22.0

2016 Average Start: 19.5

2016 Fantasy Recap - Menard had a very disappointing 2016, I personally didn't have super high standards for him, but he way worse than I expected. He has shown signs of improvements the last couple years, so logically you would think he was due for a solid year. But nope, he finished 25th in points with only 19 top 20 finishes with 3 Top 10 finishes and 22.0 average finish. He only had 3 Top 10 finishes, which isn't great. But the really strange thing is, it wasn't on any one specific type of track. He finished top 10 at Martinsville (short track), Phoenix (shorter flat track) and Indy (larger flat track). Three different tracks with the same outcome, which probably means the luck factor was a big key for him. Overall, Menard didn't have a good year. On most good weekends, he contend for a mid to high teen finish (somewhere from 15th-19th) and on a average weekend ran in the low-20s. He also had some really bad days when he didn't contend for a top 25 finish and there were some races like that too. Menard had his worst year ever at RCR! He posted a career low in both top 5 and top 10 finishes. Also posted an career-low 22.0 average. Previously, he never had an average finish worse than 18.0 (rookie season). Prior to this season, Menard was a good source of good quality finishes. Especially the last couple seasons. In 2016, he really took a nosedive and it wasn't really expected either.

Strong Tracks - Cali, Michigan and Talladega

Weak Tracks - Pocono and Charlotte

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2017, I expect Menard to have a rebound season from 2016. He had his worst year by far since joining the #27 back in 2011, so logically he is due to have a nice year. How good? I don't know, but I am sure he can top 3 Top 10 finishes and 19 Top 20 finishes on 22.0 average finish. I mean, if he cannot then there's something wrong. In his equipment, he should hover with top 20 potential on a weekly basis with enough upside to contend for top 15 finishes. He struggled on the intermediate tracks last season, but I feel like he can rebound on this type of track in 2017. So I expect that to be his primary strength as RCR always seem to do well on them. Short tracks should be next in line. He has ran well at both Bristol and Martinsville in recent years. Very underrated driver overall. Of course plate tracks will another type of track that he runs well at, but it will come down to luck for him. He seems to be better at Talladega than Daytona. Road courses and flats tracks will be hit or miss. He should have a mix results of finishes. I doubt he will should any consistent pattern, but he will have his chances to be a fantasy steal every now and then. It about looking at the trends and figuring out when you should take a chance with him. Overall, I don't expect the world from Menard but he could surprise some people.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18