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Jimmie Johnson is coming off another great season, a season that he's made history. Johnson won his 7th championship since entering the Cup series in 2001. He's now tied with Petty and Earnhardt for the most championships. Something, many (including myself) expected to happen sooner or later. Johnson and the 48 team seem to figure every new rule and point packages that Nascar hand them. So I expect 2017 to be no different for them. If you are worried about the 48 team having a bad season, then please don't then. They will perfectly fine, I can promise you that!
Johnson will be at his best the intermediate tracks, Johnson has made a living off this type of track. More often than not, most of his wins has came on the intermediate. He has won on the other type of track, but you can expect his best shot to win on this type of track. Hard to name specific type of intermediate tracks, which Johnson is great at. As, he's great just about everywhere honestly. Texas, Cali and Dover are his best intermediate tracks. Chicago and Atlanta aren't far behind, either though.
You can make a case for quite a few intermediate as his best track, but I lean towards Texas as his best track though. He has been great there for his entire career and recently been excellent. Over his past 10 races at Texas, he has won a ridiculous 5 times. While posting a total of 8 Top 6 finishes in the process. 7 of 8 top 6 finishes were actually top 4 finishes. Okay that a large data pool, I guess. Over his past 5 races: 11th, 4th, 1st, 1st and 1st. You want to bet against him here? Go away and take the field. But I feel better about Johnson's odds though. Who wouldn't with a 50% winning percentage over the past 5 years!?
Cali is considered Johnson's best track from a career point of view. In 22 starts, he has posted a career-best 6.5 average finish with 6 wins and 13 Top 5 finishes. How good is Johnson at Cali? Well, he went 4 straight races (2012 to 2015) without scoring a top 5 finish. Why is that important? He's never went back-back races without a top 5 finish at Cali. In his first 17 starts, he has just 5 finishes outside the top 5. He went to victory lane in last season's race, after leading 25 laps. He dominated at Cali in 2014 and should had went to victory lane. But that the screwy tire race though. Johnson blew a tire late in the race. He led 104 laps of the 205, despite finishing 24th. Something that stands out over the past 6 races at Cali? 4 of 6 races, he has started 14th or worse.
Obviously places like Dover, Atlanta and Chicago are also very good to him as well. I would put them in that order as well. I think his intermediate tracks goes in this order: Texas (or Cali), followed by Dover, Atlanta and Chicago. After that you have tracks like Darlington, Vegas, Charlotte and Kansas, where he has had success on in the past and should be good bets. Michigan and Homestead would be his weakest tracks. He will have potential on them, just not as good as the other though.
Short tracks will be another strength for him overall. He can (and likely will) run well at both Martinsville and Bristol. If you are familiar with Nascar, then you know how well Hendrick Motorsports has been at Martinsville for years. Johnson is the king here at Martinsville. For years it him and Jeff Gordon that own this place. Now it's Johnson. Has the competition took it to Johnson the last couple years? Oh yeah, the competition is stiff at Martinsville. He isn't running away with it, but he is still one of he best here.
Martinsville is one of his best tracks. His numbers from a career point of view is just incredible honestly. In 30 career starts, he has posted 9 wins with 19 Top 5 finishes and 24 Top 10 finishes. Johnson is finishing inside the top 5 over 60% of the time for his career. That's insane! His recent aren't as good, but he reminded us all that he is still an elite driver in last fall's race. He went to victory lane the last time, we were at Martinsville. In his last three races, he has finishes of 1st, 9th and 12th. The numbers trending in the right direction lately, so that's great. Over his past 9 races at Martinsville, he has won 33% of the time. While finishing nearly half of those races inside the top 5. Overall, there isn't a lot of to hate about Johnson at Martinsville. He will have major potential and upside, any time he goes to this place.
Bristol is considered one of Jimmie's worst tracks from a career point of view, ranked 17th of 23 tracks on the schedule. You know what amazing about that? What we considered a ''bad'' track for Jimmie, is a good track for any other track. In 30 career starts, he has 14.7 average finish with 14 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes. How he has done recently? 7 of his past 12 races ended in 5th or better. That's nearly 60% of the time. 9 of the past 12 (75%), races, he has finished 9th or better. That's a large data pool. Let's go smaller! Over his past 5 races, he has finished 7th or better in 4 of 5 races. That's great, but his performance in 2016 was concerning though. In 2 races (last year - 2016), he's compiled 15.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 79.9 driver rating. Also, only completed 46% of the laps inside the top 15. He completed all but one lap in total as well. That's why I find it concerning. His performance at Bristol wasn't good at all. Of course, normally a lot of things happen during the race. So I am sure something occurred during the race which affected his finishes. Still, I thought it was relevant to mention though.
Shorter flats will be a good spot for him, but no longer a great type of track though. Seems like the JGR and Penske teams has had a step on Johnson lately. Phoenix will always be a great track for Johnson. Many people are in shock what Harvick has done there recently, but it the same thing that Johnson did there from 2006 to 2011. Okay, sure Harvick has more wins (and better numbers) during his impressive streak of runs at Phoenix. However, during 5-year span from 2006 to 2011 (10 races), Johnson posted 10 straight Top 5 finishes. Including 4 wins in a 5-race stench, between November 2007 to November 2009. Johnson is still finding himself at Phoenix again, but it will only be matter of time before he get back to his old self. Over his past 5 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 3 finishes of 11th or better. One of them ended in 5th. His other two races ended in 38th and 39th. So, he has had mix finishes lately there. With that said, he haven't forgotten how to race at Phoenix.
Richmond and New Hampshire are both ''good'' track for Johnson. He hasn't dominated at either track recently, but he should be good regardless though. New Hampshire is considered one of his better tracks, but he hasn't ever dominate though. Just consistency good throughout his career. His numbers recent can (sort of) reflect that as well. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 12th or better. However, no finish better than 5th though. So he's in that good but not great category as of late. Richmond, he's been better at recently than New Hampshire. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 11th or better. While, 4 of those 5 races ended in 9th or better as well. He's finished 11th and 3rd in last season's races. He was strong in the spring race but was pretty average in the fall's race. Finished 11th, posted 74.6 driver rating with 17.0 average running position. Also spent less than 50% of the race inside the top 15. Struggled really to be a factor at all. 48 team could have been trying things for the chase though. Who knows though.
The Larger flats will be a strength for Johnson, but he hasn't dominant the larger flats recently like he use to. Johnson had a tough time on the larger flats in 2016. As he's compiled 18.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and completed just 43% of the laps inside the top 15. He was very strong in the first Pocono race but finished 35th, while still posting a 92.6 driver rating. He's led 3 laps and held 11.0 average running position. Also, he's completed 74% of the laps inside the top 15 as well. Very strong, but the 2nd Pocono race was complete opposite. He started 23rd, finished 16th, held 20.0 average running position (!) and completed 18% of the laps inside the top 15. His 70.4 driver rating for the event was one of his worst season on the season. Johnson been really hit or miss lately at Pocono. He's been exactly that over his past 8 races. In his past 8 races (at Pocono), he has compiled 4 finishes of 6th or better. And has 4 finishes of 16th or worse. Hard to get a good read on him. Also, there's no real pattern to his finishes. Which makes Johnson a unknown at Pocono for the time being.
Indy is a great track for Johnson and at one point, I would call it ''his place''. However, the last couple seasons, he has been knocked off the top of the mountain. We don't really see the old Johnson that would dominant the weekend. From 2006 to 2013, Johnson was the man here. In that span, he scored 4 wins and additional 2nd place finish. So 5 of 8 races ended in 1st or 2nd. In the process, he's also posted driving driver rating above 124.0 in all 5 races. Pretty impressive! He has finishes of 3rd, 14th and 15th in his last three races though. HMS seemed to fall off in the summer around Indy for some reason. Big reason for his fall-off, still posted driver rating in the 90s range though.
Road courses should be a good spot to use him, he is vastly underrated at them honestly. Johnson usually runs well at both Sonoma and WGI. However, he's rarely get the credit though. Johnson is good at both places, but I would say that he is better at Sonoma though. Johnson been on it at Sonoma since finishing 9th in 2009. Over his past 8 races (since 2009), he has finished 13th or better in single race. He has 7 Top 9 finishes in that span. He's finished 13th in last season's race. Prior to that, he had 7 straight finishes inside the top 10. Johnson been more inconsistent at Watkins Glenn, but his numbers are still very good. Over his past 10 races at WGI, he has compiled 7 Top 10 finishes. Good news, right? Well sort of. 2 of his past 3 races ended in 28th or 40th. However, 4 of his past 6 races overall ended in 10th or better. So some good and some bad, like any driver really. Johnson should be counted on to run well at the road courses, just not dominant though.
Plate tracks were a weak spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016 for the most part. In 4 races, he compiled 24.0 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 74.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he had results between 16th-23rd. 2 of 3 ended with him finishing on the lead lap. The other race (Daytona 500) ended in 35th. So he had finishes of 35th, 22nd, 23rd and 16th. That;s not good at all! Johnson has had success at both tracks, so I am not going to sit here and tell you that. I am not going to tell you how good of a plate racer or how good equipment, he is in. You know all of that already. Will it be a weakness compared to other type of tracks? Most likely. Can he be a decent fantasy option? You bet! I am not expecting the world, but wouldn't shocked if he went out and won a race at Daytona or Talladega. After all, he swept the Daytona races and finished 5th and 13th in 2013. He's very capable!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Jimmie Johnson is coming off another great season, a season that he's made history. Johnson won his 7th championship since entering the Cup series in 2001. He's now tied with Petty and Earnhardt for the most championships. Something, many (including myself) expected to happen sooner or later. Johnson and the 48 team seem to figure every new rule and point packages that Nascar hand them. So I expect 2017 to be no different for them. If you are worried about the 48 team having a bad season, then please don't then. They will perfectly fine, I can promise you that!
Johnson will be at his best the intermediate tracks, Johnson has made a living off this type of track. More often than not, most of his wins has came on the intermediate. He has won on the other type of track, but you can expect his best shot to win on this type of track. Hard to name specific type of intermediate tracks, which Johnson is great at. As, he's great just about everywhere honestly. Texas, Cali and Dover are his best intermediate tracks. Chicago and Atlanta aren't far behind, either though.
You can make a case for quite a few intermediate as his best track, but I lean towards Texas as his best track though. He has been great there for his entire career and recently been excellent. Over his past 10 races at Texas, he has won a ridiculous 5 times. While posting a total of 8 Top 6 finishes in the process. 7 of 8 top 6 finishes were actually top 4 finishes. Okay that a large data pool, I guess. Over his past 5 races: 11th, 4th, 1st, 1st and 1st. You want to bet against him here? Go away and take the field. But I feel better about Johnson's odds though. Who wouldn't with a 50% winning percentage over the past 5 years!?
Cali is considered Johnson's best track from a career point of view. In 22 starts, he has posted a career-best 6.5 average finish with 6 wins and 13 Top 5 finishes. How good is Johnson at Cali? Well, he went 4 straight races (2012 to 2015) without scoring a top 5 finish. Why is that important? He's never went back-back races without a top 5 finish at Cali. In his first 17 starts, he has just 5 finishes outside the top 5. He went to victory lane in last season's race, after leading 25 laps. He dominated at Cali in 2014 and should had went to victory lane. But that the screwy tire race though. Johnson blew a tire late in the race. He led 104 laps of the 205, despite finishing 24th. Something that stands out over the past 6 races at Cali? 4 of 6 races, he has started 14th or worse.
Obviously places like Dover, Atlanta and Chicago are also very good to him as well. I would put them in that order as well. I think his intermediate tracks goes in this order: Texas (or Cali), followed by Dover, Atlanta and Chicago. After that you have tracks like Darlington, Vegas, Charlotte and Kansas, where he has had success on in the past and should be good bets. Michigan and Homestead would be his weakest tracks. He will have potential on them, just not as good as the other though.
Short tracks will be another strength for him overall. He can (and likely will) run well at both Martinsville and Bristol. If you are familiar with Nascar, then you know how well Hendrick Motorsports has been at Martinsville for years. Johnson is the king here at Martinsville. For years it him and Jeff Gordon that own this place. Now it's Johnson. Has the competition took it to Johnson the last couple years? Oh yeah, the competition is stiff at Martinsville. He isn't running away with it, but he is still one of he best here.
Martinsville is one of his best tracks. His numbers from a career point of view is just incredible honestly. In 30 career starts, he has posted 9 wins with 19 Top 5 finishes and 24 Top 10 finishes. Johnson is finishing inside the top 5 over 60% of the time for his career. That's insane! His recent aren't as good, but he reminded us all that he is still an elite driver in last fall's race. He went to victory lane the last time, we were at Martinsville. In his last three races, he has finishes of 1st, 9th and 12th. The numbers trending in the right direction lately, so that's great. Over his past 9 races at Martinsville, he has won 33% of the time. While finishing nearly half of those races inside the top 5. Overall, there isn't a lot of to hate about Johnson at Martinsville. He will have major potential and upside, any time he goes to this place.
Bristol is considered one of Jimmie's worst tracks from a career point of view, ranked 17th of 23 tracks on the schedule. You know what amazing about that? What we considered a ''bad'' track for Jimmie, is a good track for any other track. In 30 career starts, he has 14.7 average finish with 14 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes. How he has done recently? 7 of his past 12 races ended in 5th or better. That's nearly 60% of the time. 9 of the past 12 (75%), races, he has finished 9th or better. That's a large data pool. Let's go smaller! Over his past 5 races, he has finished 7th or better in 4 of 5 races. That's great, but his performance in 2016 was concerning though. In 2 races (last year - 2016), he's compiled 15.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 79.9 driver rating. Also, only completed 46% of the laps inside the top 15. He completed all but one lap in total as well. That's why I find it concerning. His performance at Bristol wasn't good at all. Of course, normally a lot of things happen during the race. So I am sure something occurred during the race which affected his finishes. Still, I thought it was relevant to mention though.
Shorter flats will be a good spot for him, but no longer a great type of track though. Seems like the JGR and Penske teams has had a step on Johnson lately. Phoenix will always be a great track for Johnson. Many people are in shock what Harvick has done there recently, but it the same thing that Johnson did there from 2006 to 2011. Okay, sure Harvick has more wins (and better numbers) during his impressive streak of runs at Phoenix. However, during 5-year span from 2006 to 2011 (10 races), Johnson posted 10 straight Top 5 finishes. Including 4 wins in a 5-race stench, between November 2007 to November 2009. Johnson is still finding himself at Phoenix again, but it will only be matter of time before he get back to his old self. Over his past 5 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 3 finishes of 11th or better. One of them ended in 5th. His other two races ended in 38th and 39th. So, he has had mix finishes lately there. With that said, he haven't forgotten how to race at Phoenix.
Richmond and New Hampshire are both ''good'' track for Johnson. He hasn't dominated at either track recently, but he should be good regardless though. New Hampshire is considered one of his better tracks, but he hasn't ever dominate though. Just consistency good throughout his career. His numbers recent can (sort of) reflect that as well. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 12th or better. However, no finish better than 5th though. So he's in that good but not great category as of late. Richmond, he's been better at recently than New Hampshire. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 11th or better. While, 4 of those 5 races ended in 9th or better as well. He's finished 11th and 3rd in last season's races. He was strong in the spring race but was pretty average in the fall's race. Finished 11th, posted 74.6 driver rating with 17.0 average running position. Also spent less than 50% of the race inside the top 15. Struggled really to be a factor at all. 48 team could have been trying things for the chase though. Who knows though.
The Larger flats will be a strength for Johnson, but he hasn't dominant the larger flats recently like he use to. Johnson had a tough time on the larger flats in 2016. As he's compiled 18.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and completed just 43% of the laps inside the top 15. He was very strong in the first Pocono race but finished 35th, while still posting a 92.6 driver rating. He's led 3 laps and held 11.0 average running position. Also, he's completed 74% of the laps inside the top 15 as well. Very strong, but the 2nd Pocono race was complete opposite. He started 23rd, finished 16th, held 20.0 average running position (!) and completed 18% of the laps inside the top 15. His 70.4 driver rating for the event was one of his worst season on the season. Johnson been really hit or miss lately at Pocono. He's been exactly that over his past 8 races. In his past 8 races (at Pocono), he has compiled 4 finishes of 6th or better. And has 4 finishes of 16th or worse. Hard to get a good read on him. Also, there's no real pattern to his finishes. Which makes Johnson a unknown at Pocono for the time being.
Indy is a great track for Johnson and at one point, I would call it ''his place''. However, the last couple seasons, he has been knocked off the top of the mountain. We don't really see the old Johnson that would dominant the weekend. From 2006 to 2013, Johnson was the man here. In that span, he scored 4 wins and additional 2nd place finish. So 5 of 8 races ended in 1st or 2nd. In the process, he's also posted driving driver rating above 124.0 in all 5 races. Pretty impressive! He has finishes of 3rd, 14th and 15th in his last three races though. HMS seemed to fall off in the summer around Indy for some reason. Big reason for his fall-off, still posted driver rating in the 90s range though.
Road courses should be a good spot to use him, he is vastly underrated at them honestly. Johnson usually runs well at both Sonoma and WGI. However, he's rarely get the credit though. Johnson is good at both places, but I would say that he is better at Sonoma though. Johnson been on it at Sonoma since finishing 9th in 2009. Over his past 8 races (since 2009), he has finished 13th or better in single race. He has 7 Top 9 finishes in that span. He's finished 13th in last season's race. Prior to that, he had 7 straight finishes inside the top 10. Johnson been more inconsistent at Watkins Glenn, but his numbers are still very good. Over his past 10 races at WGI, he has compiled 7 Top 10 finishes. Good news, right? Well sort of. 2 of his past 3 races ended in 28th or 40th. However, 4 of his past 6 races overall ended in 10th or better. So some good and some bad, like any driver really. Johnson should be counted on to run well at the road courses, just not dominant though.
Plate tracks were a weak spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016 for the most part. In 4 races, he compiled 24.0 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 74.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he had results between 16th-23rd. 2 of 3 ended with him finishing on the lead lap. The other race (Daytona 500) ended in 35th. So he had finishes of 35th, 22nd, 23rd and 16th. That;s not good at all! Johnson has had success at both tracks, so I am not going to sit here and tell you that. I am not going to tell you how good of a plate racer or how good equipment, he is in. You know all of that already. Will it be a weakness compared to other type of tracks? Most likely. Can he be a decent fantasy option? You bet! I am not expecting the world, but wouldn't shocked if he went out and won a race at Daytona or Talladega. After all, he swept the Daytona races and finished 5th and 13th in 2013. He's very capable!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18