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Wednesday, March 22, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers (Cali)

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Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Three straight week that Stenhouse Jr has landed on the sleeper list for my column. He's finished 13th (ran top 10) at Atlanta and finished 4th at Phoenix. That was after wrecking his car in practice and was top 10 good on the long runs. But the 17 team got smart and stayed out on the final caution. I love that move and it paid off in a big way, too. So good momentum and has a good track record here, too. In his past two races, he's finished 15th or better in both races. He's finished 5th in last season race, after running top 10 most of the day. In that event, he had 12.0 average running position. Which basically says he was a legit driver for that event. A lot of people don't understand that Stenhouse Jr is very underrated on these intermediate tracks. Last season, Stenhouse Jr said they were close on their intermediate tracks. I believe that is true a year later, I think the 17 and 6 are making gains on this type of track. Gains, where they are contending in the low-teens and maybe top 10. If they are really good that weekend. I really like Stenhouse Jr to be a top 15 driver.

Aric Almirola - It is time to wake up and face it that Aric Almirola is a pretty good damn value right now. Though 4 races, he's finished 17th or better three times already. Including finishes of 14th and 17th in his past two races at Vegas and Phoenix. That's very good overall. On top of that, he has not started any better than 28th outside of Daytona. His average starting position is his last three races (since Altanta) is 29.33. His average position gained (from his starting spot to finishing position) is 9.3 per race. On average in those races, he has posted 19.33 average finish. In 3 of his past 4 races at Cali, he has finishes of 21st, 11th and 14th. What am I getting toward? Aric is a idea sleeper (and value) play in certain leagues that offer scoring category such as position differential. If you are looking for a straight up finisher, then you are barking up the wrong tree. However, he can be a effective fantasy option in deeper scoring leagues. Especially if he's qualifies poorly, per usual. 

Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac is off to a great start this season overall, with 3 top 15 finishes in 4 races so far. His lone non-top 15 finish is his finish in the Daytona 500's race. In his past three races this season, he's posted 11.0 average finish with 2 top 10 finishes. Both of those top 10 finishes were on the intermediate tracks. Last season on 2-mile intermediate tracks (Michigan and Cali - three races), he's finished inside the top 10 in all three races. Dating back to 2016, he's finished 5 of the past 7 races on the intermediate tracks inside the top 11. Only one-non top 11 finish wasn't a DNF-like result and that was at Texas (November). In his past 8 intermediate tracks (on 1.5 or 2.0 mile tracks), JMac has 6 Top 11 finishes. He's been one of the most underrated drivers on this type of track for nearly a year. And Chip Ganassi Racing is running better than I can remember in quite awhile.

**Stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

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