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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview (Bristol)

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Fantasy Nascar Preview -

1-JMac: JMac is coming off (in my opinion) his best performance of the 2017 season at Texas just a few weeks ago and now will look to keep his strong start intact. I think the CGR cars will be very good everywhere and that will include Bristol. We saw him run very well at Martinsville (not really comparable though), before slamming into the wall pretty hard. Noted, it was 100% of his stupidity for not pitting though. Onto this weekend though. He has ran very well here in the past and I think that will continue as well. JMac has produced 5 straight finishes of 14th or better at Bristol. Including finishes of 11th or better in 3 of his past 5 races here. He's finished 8th and 14th here last season at this place.

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is the hottest driver in the series right now with pure consistency and running up front. No driver in the series has more top 6 finishes this season than he does. Yes, not even points leader Kyle Larson has more than Keselowski. Since finishing 27th at Daytona (first race of the season), he has finished 6th or better in every single race of the season. His worst performance in that span may had been at Texas. That or Cali when thinking about it, honestly. Which is saying a lot since he was contending for a top 5 finish in both races. There's not a lot to hate about Brad right now. He does nothing but put strong finishes. Keselowski has had a lot of bad luck here recently, but he did win races in 2010 and 2011 here. For whatever that is worth (probably not much) when it comes to this weekend race. Keselowski haven't gotten the finishes here lately, but it will change this weekend though. Mark my words that the No.2 car will be up at the front.

3-Austin Dillon: My biggest surprise through 7 races? Not enough people aren't worried about Dillon start to the 2017 season. He has looked terrible. In 5 of 7 races, he has finished 18th or worse. While 3 of his last 6 races has ended in 25th or worse. Why the backtracking for Dillon? I have a couple theories. The logic reason would be RCR is simply behind right now. Or Dillon made so much progress last season in Cup, he is now suffering a slump because he cannot make anymore progress in terms of development. Quite frankly, I think it could be the combination of the two. Also, I think this season's race package doesn't fit into his driving style honestly. Throughout his career, Dillon has relied on consistency, not pure driving talent. This package reward the talent on the track more than in recent seasons. Could that explain for the regression of Dillon? As for this weekend, I think this is one of the tracks that he will have a shot at a top 10 finish. I believe Dillon best shots (right now) at a top 10 finish will be on the short tracks. He has a solid record here so far in his career. Might be a decent fantasy option, of course it depends on what fantasy format, too.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick haven't found victory lane through 7 races in the 2017 season. After his hot start to the season at Atlanta, I think many people (including myself) expected him to win before this point. However, he haven't and really haven't dominated any races, either. There has been races where he has been in contention, but not the Harvick of the past few seasons. Personally, I am not worried yet. SHR is still trying to make the transition to Ford from Chevy and that will no doubt take some time. If he haven't won by like July or something like that, then there will be some reason to panic. For now, let's give him some time. He will be good this weekend. Winning good? I don't think so, but easily a top 10 driver and likely on that top 5-boarder, as well.

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is actually having a pretty decent season so far in 2017, despite his ride going to crap at Texas. The good news is, he's finished 20th or better in every race, minus the Texas race. Good, right? Yeah, okay that's good. You know the bad news is coming, right? He has finished 20th or worse in 3 of his past 4 races this season. His first three races this season were his best three finishes of the season by far. Since finishing 12th at Vegas, he haven't finished better than 14th (Martinsville) on the season. Honestly, despite the half way decent start to the season. I cannot recall a race where he has been a legit top 10 driver. He's just getting good finishes. I think that is the best thing you can hope with Kahne. Hope he can run top 15 and steal top 10. I think that is a reasonable outcome for him this weekend at Bristol. He has (and can) run well here in the past and should have enough speed to be in that 12th-17th place range for the race.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a tough season so far along with his Joe Gibbs teammates. Outside of Kyle Busch, I cannot say anyone has been close to be a top 5 threat. I am not kidding, either. Hamlin has looked like the worst ''experienced'' Gibbs driver and I honestly not surprised by that. Over the previous two seasons, it took Hamlin until second half of the season to warm up. Guess what? He is off another slow start. How much are you willing to bet that he will turn it around? Pretty sure he will get it together before the chase arrives here. As for this weekend, I am not very high on him honestly. His slow start has a lot to do with that. Also, Hamlin just haven't been consistent enough here for me to believe he will be a legit threat.

18-Kyle Busch: I love Kyle Busch this weekend at Bristol. It is one of his favorite tracks on the schedule, even though he has way more success on ''old Bristol'' than ''new Bristol''. Still it does not change that Kyle Busch was one of the strongest drivers in the series here last season. He had the car to beat in last August race. When looking at Phoenix and Martinsville (not really comparable tracks), he had a car that was more than capable of winning. He should had won at Phoenix, if it wasn't for that last caution and led the most laps at Martinsville. Again not really any comparable tracks to Bristol, but still one have to wonder about his success on the one-mile or less tracks.

19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez hasn't impressed through 7 races like he has so many other people. The mainstream media were hyping him up when he scored those top 10 finishes at Vegas and Phoenix. That's cool, but the facts are he haven't been a legit top 20 driver in a race yet. He is showing shades of Austin Dillon's rookie year. Be a top 25 driver, but constantly improve throughout the race. By end of the race, he will be in the top 20. That has been the main theme for him and it will likely continue this weekend at Bristol. The 19 team was awesome here last spring, but that was with the experience veteran of Carl Edwards. Suarez is nowhere on that same level. I think he will be in that 18th-23rd place range driver.

20-Matt Kenseth: Matt Kenseth is a stud at Bristol and make no mistake about that, either. The 20 team haven't been on it this season really, with Kenseth only producing three top 10 finish through 7 races. Problem is he has finished 16th or worse in 3 of his past four races. Bristol is one of his best tracks, even though his record doesn't show how good he's been. His track record here with JGR has been boom or bust. In his past 8 races here, he has finished 35th or worse in 4 of his 8 races (August 2016, April 2016, August 2015 and March 2013). While, finishing 3rd or better (August 2013, August 2014 and April 2015). What stands out to me? He has finished 36th or worse in 3 straight races at Bristol. That's not a good sign for track history. On positive side, since joining JGR, he haven't had a bad race here. He has dominated multiple times in his past 8 races here. Including early on in last spring's race!

21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a great season and I think this is definitely a kind of track that he will perform very well on. A few weeks ago at Texas, many people thought he was going to win that race. If he didn't have that speeding penalty, I think he would had finished inside the top 5, if not more. He should be a solid fantasy pick this weekend at Bristol, too. I really do like him a lot as a fantasy pick. He ran very well here last season and found plenty of success on this in the lower series. I remember Blaney saying this is his favorite racetrack in the lower series. No shock that he ran so well in his rookie season. He probably had one of his best races of the season last year as a rookie at Bristol. He was top 10 good in both races, just didn't get the finishes.

22-Joey Logano: Logano is having a solid season, but he haven't gone to victory lane yet though. Outside of Phoenix, it is hard to complain about Logano's results overall. Bristol could end going very well for Logano or very poorly. Depending on how you want to look at. Logano has produced 5 Top 10 finishes, including 2 wins over his past 7 races at Bristol. So he has found success here, right? Most definitely. Problem? Logano past 4 spring races at Bristol: 10th, 40th, 20th and 17th. His past 4 summer races: 10th, 1st, 1st and 5th. Now, trends aren't definite and tends can change. But recent history says that Logano will have problems this weekend at Bristol. But then again, he's finished 10th place in last spring's race, too. 

24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is having somewhat similar season to Kyle Larson's 2nd season (back in 2015). Consistently with top 10 speed with clear upside, but never can take that ''next step'' into top 5 territory. I think that is exactly what he had seen from Elliott. I really like Chase as a driver, I think he is gonna be really good driver down the line. As a young driver, he still has some progress to make. He ran well last season in both races at Bristol and should be a top 10 or so driver this weekend. However, I still say that the intermediate tracks are his bread and butter. I personally think that Elliott will not have his performance of the season at Bristol. Some drivers just go over the top at this place, while other are just good. I don't think Elliott is a kind of driver that goes over the top at this sort of place. He will be consistent and make his way to the front as the race progresses. I think he is better off saved for intermediate tracks, if you wondering if this will be one of his better races.

41-Kurt Busch: I am sorry but Kurt Busch has been basically trash so far this season. I have been very unimpressed by him through 7 races. Sure, he won the Daytona 500 and finished 7th at Atlanta but since then? 24th or worse in 4 o the past 5 races. Okay, he had a few mechanical problems, but that issue stopped after PIR. 37th, 25th and 10th in three races since then. He did finish 10th at Texas, but he wasn't ever in contention. Yet, people are still considering him as a ''visible'' fantasy option? I don't understand that at all. My number one factor in fantasy nascar and always have been consistency. Consistency is what build championships in sports. Kurt Busch, my friends, doesn't seem to understand how that works right now. He has a pretty solid record here, but he cannot be trusted. When he can knock off some solid finishes/performances, then we will talk about it!

42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is off to a great start in the 2017 season. He has been nearly unstoppable through 7 races. In that span, he has posted 5 Top 2 finishes. Yes, 5 Top 2 finishes. Including his 2nd career win at Cali. This kid is for real and I think most people knew that heading into the season. The Cali kid grew up dirt tracking it but knew he had to go to Nascar to make it big time. Fast forward a odd number of years later, he's considered a heavy favorite at his Nascar track at Bristol. Larson has number of times said that Bristol is his favorite racetrack. Before, he really hit the spotlight in Cup, Larson had a epic battle in a NXS race with Kyle Busch back in 2013. I think that is the race, a lot of fans had a feeling what kind of drivers he could be. And every time, he has came here to Bristol, Larson has been a strong performance. This weekend will be no difference, make no mistake about it. I have very high hopes for him this weekend and pinned as a top 5 fantasy pick with winning potential!

48-Jimmie Johnson: You know what I heard about a lot during the off-week? Jimmie Johnson and HMS are back with him winning at Texas. Hold your damn horses! Back? I am not ready to say that they are back. The facts remain that HMS as whole has struggled, minus that win. They may have a driver in the top 10 every week, but that all they are doing. Not many top 5 finishes this season.  I think they are much butter than they were back in the Atlatna area. But to say that they are back after one win is kinda bold. Especially considering all of the competitive teams in Nascar right now. Would it surprise me, if that was the case? Hell no, but I am not ready to jump on the bandwagon quite yet. However, Johnson has a pretty solid record at Bristol lately though. So I would keep tabs on him, no doubt.

77-Erik Jones: Jones is having a fine rookie season so far. He haven't blown us out of our shoes, as I directly said in the offseason. So yeah, I may had oversold him a little, but I also expected the Gibbs program to be a little stronger as well. That could be effecting him a little, so not to take anything from Jones. He has been impressive, while running top 10 more than a couple races. I am personally not very high on him this weekend. I am sold that Jones' first cup win will be on a intermediate track. I think the odds of that are very good. While, he will be a question mark on the short tracks throughout the season. Am I counting him out already? Oh no not by a long shot, but you have to wonder how good he will be this weekend at Bristol. Somewhere in the low to middle teens seems pretty reasonable, in my opinion, though.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is one of those drivers that always get overlooked on these kind of racetracks. I honestly don't know why, when he is usually pretty decent. He just isn't the same driver as he is on the intermediate tracks. So I do get why he is overlook to a certain extent, but at the same time it seems like he is buried under the radar. In my opinion, he get disrespected on the short tracks and shorter flats tracks. His Bristol record is ugly, but he did post a driver rating over 100.0 in both races in last season's races here. So that is a indication, he had a pretty good performance, despite less than stellar finishes. I am not saying that Truex Jr should legit be on your fantasy radar, but you would be a fool not to look into that possibility of keeping tabs on him. I sure am, either way.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is having a tough season, but things did go well for him at Texas as he scored his first top 10 (and top 5) finish of the season. Looking at his season's trends, it was only matter of time before he's finally broke the ice. And he did that in the 7th race of the season, just a couple weeks ago. Now, he will try to keep the momentum going after the off-week. The biggest shocker is he has the 2nd-best average finish over the past two seasons at Bristol. Let's not say shock, but more of not expected. Especially since, he has only three top 10 finishes over his past 7 races and only 5 Top 10 finishes over his past 16 races at Bristol. Then again, that is just showing how tough it is to be consistent here. It is risky unpredictable at Bristol. Junior been pretty consistent though. With 5 of his past 7 races ending in 16th place or better.

***Sorry for the lack of Previews and Updates the past few weeks, it has been a pretty busy one for me. With problems at work and with the family, on top of celebrating my birthday a few weeks back. Yeah it has been busy. So hopefully this is the week (and going forward), things can get back to normal

***Stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatsheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18