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Friday, May 12, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (Kansas)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

 1. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch let another win slip away at Talladega this past weekend and will now try to get into the winning column again at Kansas. The No.18 car been really solid for the most part, this is no shock though. The driver of the No.18 car been pretty good all year and JGR seems to getting their speed together, too. Kyle Busch didn't post a top 10 lap average in either practice session on Friday, but that's okay. He's topped the final practice session on the speed charts and his lap times were pretty strong in both practice sessions. I thought he had the best car on Saturday honestly. There's a lot of speed in that 18 car and I think it has a look of a winning car, too. He's my pick to win right now!

2. Martin Truex Jr - One of the best kept secrets leading up to Friday's track activities may had been, a man named Martin Truex Jr. He doesn't have a top 10 finish over the past three cup races at Kansas, but he has dominated this place lately. More specifically, he's dominated this race last spring. This season, the 78 car been often the car to beat on the 1.5 mile tracks. He may not dominate the entire event, but it is hard to overlook all of the success of this team. Dominated Vegas (along with Keselowski) and was strong again at Texas. Then look at how fast he's unloaded off the truck this weekend, too. He makes a strong case as one of the drivers to beat heading into Saturday's night race.

3. Joey Logano - Logano has a great track record here at Kansas and his success this season on intermediate tracks has definitely caught my attention. So far this season, Logano haven't finished worse than 6th place on this type of track. No better than 3rd, but still it is impressive though. On Friday, Logano was good overall, I would say. He had good speed for the most part. laptimes were pretty consistent in both sessions, in my opinion. Night races suck because you don't truly know how good a driver is. But I would say that Logano will be in a good spot come Saturday night. He haven't finished worse than 6th this season on this type of track, so I am willing to bet that he is a top 5 driver.

4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is a driver that I am unsure about right now. He is still contending for top 5 and top 10 finishes on a weekly basis. But I have yet to see him go out there (since Atlanta) and put on a Kevin Harvick kind of performance. Before, he's joined the #4 team, he had more of a quiet-like personality performance to him. But over the past couple years, we are use to him going out there and putting on a show up front. I haven't seen that from him yet honestly. I am still waiting for him to put a full-race together. He have been strong in the beginning, the middle and the end, but not in the same race. I think SHR's best days are still ahead. As for this weekend, I think Harvick will be a top 5 driver once again. He's showed really strong speed in both sessions and ranked 2nd in best-ten lap average in final practice. On top of that, he had a great race at Texas. Just quite didn't have the strength to stay with the leaders after awhile. Kansas is a great track, but I don't think he will go to victory lane though. He is getting closer every week, I will have to say that!

5. Ryan Blaney - I am ranking Blaney higher than I have ever before, but I have high hopes for him. He was a driver that I expected to be strong in Friday's practices and he did not disappoint one bit! The driver of the No.21 car unloaded with a bad fast car and been near top of the charts ever since. In final practice, Blaney had the best-20 lap average and looks to be one of the drivers to beat on the long runs. He's starting on the pole. That is very important, as track position is huge here. If he does lose track position at some point, he should be able to rebound eventually with that speed. I think the biggest reason that I am not shocked by Blaney is how strong he was at Texas. The most recent, 1.5 mile track we been on. He's dominated that event early on and looked to have the field covered. That was before getting some damage and a penalty. Also, he was really good at Vegas. Both tracks are pretty comparable to Kansas. Also, he's been a top 10 driver in 2 of the past three races here. Blaney could be a really good play on Saturday night!

6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has been pretty fast since unloading this weekend. He's good enough to challenge for the win on Saturday night. The No.2 car will be without his regular crew chief though. That's kind puts a damper on his fantasy value to me. As Kansas is about track position, which means pit strategy could come into play. Paul Wolfe is by far one of the best in the garage when it comes to making the right pit calls on the box. Overall, it shouldn't hurt him too much. As the No.2 ford has been near top of the speed charts all day on Friday. He was one of the drivers that stood out to me among the usual contenders. For whatever reason this week, Keselowski didn't get as much love as I was expecting. A lot of that has to do with his track record here over the past couple years. That should be irrelevant. The 2 car been consistently one of the best cars on this type of tracks in 2017. That's won't change this weekend, either!

7. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth, like his teammate has some really good speed in his JGR Toyota on Friday. Kenseth was a driver that I said could be a fantasy option that set you apart in your respected fantasy league/format. I still believe that could be the case. He's looked really good, I think it was his best day of practice this season. Like teammate, Kyle Busch, he did not post any ten-lap averages in either practice sessions. He's qualified worse than I would wanted him to, but  I am not too worried about it though. Kenseth usually has strong showings at Kansas. Earlier in the week, I also mentioned that this could be a stepping stone race for him, much like it was in 2016. I wouldn't rule that out, either.

8. Kyle Larson - There's was two different Kyle Larson in Friday's practice sessions. There was the one that was wrecking nearly every lap (eventually did in final practice). And then there was the Kyle Larson that was the fastest car on the track an hour into final practice. So take what you want from that info. Personally, I think Larson is due for a bad finish and Kansas is a track that could cause problems for him. In his past three Kansas races, Larson hasn't finished finished in the top 20 or even the top 25. Outside of his 2nd career start at this track, he does not have any top 10 finishes. He has struggled to produce good numbers and that is a problem. On Friday, he was good but just good enough to make my top 10. I have concerns about him. It has nothing to do with the speed in his car or where he is starting. It has to do with what history says. When a driver struggles a specific track and already wrecked once since unloading, it is commonly a good idea to stay away. Best case possible for him to finish in the top 10 most likely.

9. Chase Elliott - Elliott has some questions around him right now. He's started off the season with two top 5 finishes in the first three races. Then had some really good runs after that at places like Phoenix, Cali and Martinsville. But the common theme for the past month and a half has been this: Elliott isn't running up front or leading laps. When I mean running up front, I mean not running in the top 5. He haven't led a lap since Martinsville and just been top 10 good. That's a problem! As for this weekend, he is once good top 10 good. Not top 5 good though. He may flirt with the top 5 from time to time, but at end of the day, he will finish somewhere in that 7th-12th place range.

10. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson was someone I had questions about entering Friday's practice sessions and I still have questions about him. He's seem pretty happy about his car overall and posted the best-ten lap average in final practice. Both are always positive when we are talking about fantasy nascar. On top of that, Johnson has had more success at Kansas than any other driver in the series. He's a three-time winner and would love nothing more than to add another victory to that total. Do I think he can to victory lane? Sure, I think it is possible. With that said, I am not sure which Johnson will show up on Saturday night. The Johnson that deliver the wins in the clutch or the Johnson that showed up last spring at Kansas. The one that faded in the latter stages of the event. The one that made a error on pit road that cost him a top 10 finish. If Johnson does everything he is suppose to, then I think he is definitely a top 10 guy with top 5 upside. But honestly, I just don't get the hype behind Johnson this season. He haven't gone out and dominated a race yet. For me, I need him to do before, I rank him in the top 5. If he didn't start in the back, I would rank him about 6th or 7th. 

****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18