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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is looking strong this weekend. He will start on the pole and had a strong pair of practices on Saturday. I know a lot of places, the odds are against you to win from the pole, unless you have a dominant car. However, it is a huge advantage starting there at Michigan. It seems like starting on the pole here translate into big-time results. Earlier this season, June pole sitter, Kyle Larson went to victory lane from the pole. Last season, teammate Joey Logano went to victory lane from the pole. Not only that, but it seems like the Fords have a lot of speed this weekend. This is a home track for Mr. Keselowski and he wants to win here so bad. He has the car to do it, the track position (to start) and definitely the talent to do it.
2. Kyle Larson - Larson has struggled in weeks past, but Larson back to feeling himself this weekend. The 42 car back to near top of the board, that was missing for a few weeks. He looked great in happy hour and really haven't missed a beat on the intermediate tracks this season. Excluding the Charlotte race (he was running top 2 at one point), he haven't finished outside of the top 6. Kid is a stud on this type of track. During happy hour, he posted the best-ten lap average. He is starting from 9th, but he's one of the heavy favorites in my eyes. On twitter (after practice), he said his car was $ today. A little snug, but good speed. Sounds fairly confident to me. With his regular Crew Chief back (he returned last week, I believe), I think Kyle will be back to getting top 5 finishes. He is looking for his third straight win at Michigan on Sunday afternoon!
3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has plenty of speed this weekend, like usual, he is just starting further in the back than usual though. He will start from 13th, but that doesn't mean he isn't fast. He has a pretty good car and I think he can make his way up to the front and contend for a top 5 finish. I wouldn't rule out a win, either. Truex Jr has been the hottest driver this season and that won't change this weekend. He is coming off a win last weekend at the road course (of Watkins Glen) and should feel back at home on an intermediate track. I think he is a little better on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks though, if we want to be realistic here. Still, I love what he brings to the table on a weekly basis. Week in and week out, he is a top 5 driver and that won't change at Michigan on Sunday afternoon!
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has good speed this weekend, but Michigan hates him. In his past 8 races here, he has finished 31st or worse five (5) times. And in his last 13 races, he has only 4 finishes better than 7th. 3 of those 4 came between 2011-2013. This weekend, he has the speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but I don't know if he will have enough for the win. I think we know when Kyle will win, because he is usually super fast off the truck. And Michigan isn't a place that I thought he would be. It seems like he doesn't have this place figured out yet. He's good, but tend to find trouble more times than not. Heck, this weekend, he already found trouble (during first practice). I don't hate him, but I don't get the vibe I got at places like Indy, Pocono and Watkins Glen. When we knew, he had the car to beat. With that said, I don't think there is a dominant car here at Michigan. I think there are 4 or 5 guys that can get out front and lead a lot of laps. Kyle is probably in that group, if they keep him up front.
5. Kevin Harvick - Harvick haven't been super high on the speed charts this weekend and I think people have noticed that. I have and I am kinda surprised by that. But Harvick has like 4 runner-up finishes since 2013, so I don't think he is too worried about it. He is a machine usually at this place, so I think he can challenge well in the top 10 and maybe more. Personally, I am higher on him than most people are. I think, he will definitely outperform his practice results. Last week, I was disappointed in him. I didn't see him performing like he did, in fact, I thought he had one of the better cars in practice. This weekend? Not quite as much. But it also helps that the other fords are looking good. Harvick is one of those guys that you can bank on being a factor. I think he will be on Sunday afternoon. He will start 3rd when the green flag waves!
6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is still on babywatch, but according what I have heard, his girlfriend isn't any signs of labor yet. Good news, if you are planning to use the driver of the No.11 car. He is red hot over the past few months. Since end of May, he has 7 top 5 finishes in 11 starts. Including impressive 6 Top 5 finishes in his past 8 races. He finished 4th back in June and had a shot to win at the end. But Larson had the better restart and he dropped to 4th in the final few laps. I love what Hamlin is doing lately and he is coming off another strong race at WGI (last weekend). He has speed, momentum, solid starting position and confidence. On pure speed and potential , I think he is top 5 good overall. But I will give him a little celling to work with.
7. Matt Kenseth - I proabbly could have ranked Kenseth a little higher here, but I will give him a higher celling instead. He will start from the 4th position and was ranked 6th in final practice on the best-ten lap average. He also has a lot of momentum over the past month or so. In his past four races, he has 4 straight top 9 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his last four races. Kenseth has good enough car to most likely contend for a top 5 finish, but that's not set in stone though. Personally, I think Kenseth will drop to somewhere just ouside of the top 10 and stay there. Before making his way back into the top 5 later in the event. That seems to be the common Matt Kenseth theme of late. Consistent all day long, before sneaking into the top 5. He isn't dominating races, but he is getting great finishes. That wasn't the case earlier in the season for him, so I will take it as a fantasy pick.
8. Chase Elliott - A lot of talk from people is Elliott can possibly win his first race of his career, based off on previous trips to Michigan. I get that, he has 3 starts with 3 second place finishes. Personally, I think that will eventually end for him (good streak of finishes), and maybe even on Sunday. Elliott has contended for top 5 finishes over the past year, but I haven't seen him ''truly'' contend for a race win. I think there a big difference in challenging for a top 5 or top 10 finish and contending for the race win. Elliott haven't been up front and led laps on a consistent basis since last season. So it is hard for me to say that he will challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon. Sure, on past results, hell yeah. But I don't think he is lock for a top 5 finish. Top 10? Sure, why not?
9. Joey Logano - I know people are a lot higher on Logano than I am, but I see only two likely outcomes for him at Michigan: Winning or fail trying. That is his only mindset. His crew cheif was aggressive last weekend at Watkins Glen and Joey was all for it. So that seems to me that Logano is bond to be aggressive this weekend once again. He is a great driver at Michigan, so I wouldn't be shocked, if he did end up winning. He is starting 2nd alongside his teammate. I don't hate Joey by any means, but I don't love him either. If you feel like gambling, then he could be your man honestly. For now, I am giving him a decent celling to work with, like I have done often this season with Joey Logano.
10. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has awesome upside and top 5 speed, if everything goes according to plan. But more often than not, everything doesn't line up for Blaney. So often this season, Blaney has been a miss more than a hit. He has been wildly inconsistent over the past few months, but the numbers more on the bad side though. Not good! And his numbers at Michigan are pretty lopsided, too. He has only one top 10 finish in his last four races. On the plus side, he looks to have a rocketship for the race and he should be in contention when the race starts. The 21 team need to keep him up front and make good adjustments as the race go on. If they do that, I feel like he can legit steal a win.
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is looking strong this weekend. He will start on the pole and had a strong pair of practices on Saturday. I know a lot of places, the odds are against you to win from the pole, unless you have a dominant car. However, it is a huge advantage starting there at Michigan. It seems like starting on the pole here translate into big-time results. Earlier this season, June pole sitter, Kyle Larson went to victory lane from the pole. Last season, teammate Joey Logano went to victory lane from the pole. Not only that, but it seems like the Fords have a lot of speed this weekend. This is a home track for Mr. Keselowski and he wants to win here so bad. He has the car to do it, the track position (to start) and definitely the talent to do it.
2. Kyle Larson - Larson has struggled in weeks past, but Larson back to feeling himself this weekend. The 42 car back to near top of the board, that was missing for a few weeks. He looked great in happy hour and really haven't missed a beat on the intermediate tracks this season. Excluding the Charlotte race (he was running top 2 at one point), he haven't finished outside of the top 6. Kid is a stud on this type of track. During happy hour, he posted the best-ten lap average. He is starting from 9th, but he's one of the heavy favorites in my eyes. On twitter (after practice), he said his car was $ today. A little snug, but good speed. Sounds fairly confident to me. With his regular Crew Chief back (he returned last week, I believe), I think Kyle will be back to getting top 5 finishes. He is looking for his third straight win at Michigan on Sunday afternoon!
3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has plenty of speed this weekend, like usual, he is just starting further in the back than usual though. He will start from 13th, but that doesn't mean he isn't fast. He has a pretty good car and I think he can make his way up to the front and contend for a top 5 finish. I wouldn't rule out a win, either. Truex Jr has been the hottest driver this season and that won't change this weekend. He is coming off a win last weekend at the road course (of Watkins Glen) and should feel back at home on an intermediate track. I think he is a little better on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks though, if we want to be realistic here. Still, I love what he brings to the table on a weekly basis. Week in and week out, he is a top 5 driver and that won't change at Michigan on Sunday afternoon!
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has good speed this weekend, but Michigan hates him. In his past 8 races here, he has finished 31st or worse five (5) times. And in his last 13 races, he has only 4 finishes better than 7th. 3 of those 4 came between 2011-2013. This weekend, he has the speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but I don't know if he will have enough for the win. I think we know when Kyle will win, because he is usually super fast off the truck. And Michigan isn't a place that I thought he would be. It seems like he doesn't have this place figured out yet. He's good, but tend to find trouble more times than not. Heck, this weekend, he already found trouble (during first practice). I don't hate him, but I don't get the vibe I got at places like Indy, Pocono and Watkins Glen. When we knew, he had the car to beat. With that said, I don't think there is a dominant car here at Michigan. I think there are 4 or 5 guys that can get out front and lead a lot of laps. Kyle is probably in that group, if they keep him up front.
5. Kevin Harvick - Harvick haven't been super high on the speed charts this weekend and I think people have noticed that. I have and I am kinda surprised by that. But Harvick has like 4 runner-up finishes since 2013, so I don't think he is too worried about it. He is a machine usually at this place, so I think he can challenge well in the top 10 and maybe more. Personally, I am higher on him than most people are. I think, he will definitely outperform his practice results. Last week, I was disappointed in him. I didn't see him performing like he did, in fact, I thought he had one of the better cars in practice. This weekend? Not quite as much. But it also helps that the other fords are looking good. Harvick is one of those guys that you can bank on being a factor. I think he will be on Sunday afternoon. He will start 3rd when the green flag waves!
6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is still on babywatch, but according what I have heard, his girlfriend isn't any signs of labor yet. Good news, if you are planning to use the driver of the No.11 car. He is red hot over the past few months. Since end of May, he has 7 top 5 finishes in 11 starts. Including impressive 6 Top 5 finishes in his past 8 races. He finished 4th back in June and had a shot to win at the end. But Larson had the better restart and he dropped to 4th in the final few laps. I love what Hamlin is doing lately and he is coming off another strong race at WGI (last weekend). He has speed, momentum, solid starting position and confidence. On pure speed and potential , I think he is top 5 good overall. But I will give him a little celling to work with.
7. Matt Kenseth - I proabbly could have ranked Kenseth a little higher here, but I will give him a higher celling instead. He will start from the 4th position and was ranked 6th in final practice on the best-ten lap average. He also has a lot of momentum over the past month or so. In his past four races, he has 4 straight top 9 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his last four races. Kenseth has good enough car to most likely contend for a top 5 finish, but that's not set in stone though. Personally, I think Kenseth will drop to somewhere just ouside of the top 10 and stay there. Before making his way back into the top 5 later in the event. That seems to be the common Matt Kenseth theme of late. Consistent all day long, before sneaking into the top 5. He isn't dominating races, but he is getting great finishes. That wasn't the case earlier in the season for him, so I will take it as a fantasy pick.
8. Chase Elliott - A lot of talk from people is Elliott can possibly win his first race of his career, based off on previous trips to Michigan. I get that, he has 3 starts with 3 second place finishes. Personally, I think that will eventually end for him (good streak of finishes), and maybe even on Sunday. Elliott has contended for top 5 finishes over the past year, but I haven't seen him ''truly'' contend for a race win. I think there a big difference in challenging for a top 5 or top 10 finish and contending for the race win. Elliott haven't been up front and led laps on a consistent basis since last season. So it is hard for me to say that he will challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon. Sure, on past results, hell yeah. But I don't think he is lock for a top 5 finish. Top 10? Sure, why not?
9. Joey Logano - I know people are a lot higher on Logano than I am, but I see only two likely outcomes for him at Michigan: Winning or fail trying. That is his only mindset. His crew cheif was aggressive last weekend at Watkins Glen and Joey was all for it. So that seems to me that Logano is bond to be aggressive this weekend once again. He is a great driver at Michigan, so I wouldn't be shocked, if he did end up winning. He is starting 2nd alongside his teammate. I don't hate Joey by any means, but I don't love him either. If you feel like gambling, then he could be your man honestly. For now, I am giving him a decent celling to work with, like I have done often this season with Joey Logano.
10. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has awesome upside and top 5 speed, if everything goes according to plan. But more often than not, everything doesn't line up for Blaney. So often this season, Blaney has been a miss more than a hit. He has been wildly inconsistent over the past few months, but the numbers more on the bad side though. Not good! And his numbers at Michigan are pretty lopsided, too. He has only one top 10 finish in his last four races. On the plus side, he looks to have a rocketship for the race and he should be in contention when the race starts. The 21 team need to keep him up front and make good adjustments as the race go on. If they do that, I feel like he can legit steal a win.
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18