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Friday, February 02, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Joey Logano

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Joey Logano had a tough 2017 season, he technically scored a win at Richmond. However, he failed post-race inspection for that race. After that, he really struggled to put together good finishes. So much that he actually missed the playoffs cut-off. I am not sure if it was Penske not wanting to push the issue too much or what. But something happened that really threw that 22 team off so much that they became a complete different team between April and the summer months.

Intermediate tracks as usual should be a strong area for Joey Logano and the 22 team. His best intermediate tracks are Texas, Las Vegas and Michigan. I think of the three that Texas is his best track and it may be his best track on the schedule, too. Since joining Penske in 2013, he has been really strong. In the last 10 races (at Texas), he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has finished 4th or better. With 5 of the last 6 in the top 7 overall. He scored his lone win in 2014 in the spring race. He led 108 laps in that event. Him and teammate Brad Keselowski dominated that event. After Keselowski had a late speeding penalty, it was all Joey's race for the taking after that.

Las Vegas is a very good track for Joey, in fact it is his best track in terms of career average finish. Since joining Penske in 2013, he has posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. His worst finish is 10th during that span in 2015. In 3 of those 4 races (since 2014), he has compiled 3 Top 4 finishes. He has finishes of 4th, 1st, 10th and 4th in his last four races at Las Vegas.

Then there is Michigan! He has been very solid here in recent season. Since 2013 (9 races), he has posted 7 Top 9 finishes. During those 7 top 9 finishes, he has 5 Top 5 finishes. In the June's races, he has finished in the top 9 in every single race. He has finished in the top 5 in the last three June races at Michigan. In the August races? He has finishes of 28th (2017), 10th, 7th, 3rd and 1st. His finishes in the August races seems to be getting worse in each race. Good news? He is probably due for a better finish, with his most recent finish coming in 28th during last August's race.

Richmond is a very good track for him since joining Penske back in 2013. Currently, he is riding a 8-race top 10 streak. In 5 of his last 8 races at Richmond, he has finished in the top 5. While 6 of 8 races ended in 6th or better. In 2017, he had finishes of 1st and 2nd. In the spring race, he failed post-race inspection and got his win taken away. It still shows in the record books that he won, but it will always be a little mark next to that finish. I think that race was extremely important because it probably changed the entire season for Logano.

The other two shorter flats are Phoenix and New Hampshire. Of the two tracks, I would say that Phoenix is his better track. Since the 2013 season (9 races), he has posted 6 Top 9 finishes. In 4 of his last 8 races overall, he has finished in the top 6. Bad news? He has finishes of 12th, 31st and 18th in 3 of his last 4 races. In his last five races during the November races, he has finished 12th or better in every race. He has finishes of 12th, 1st, 3rd, 6th and 9th since joining the 22 team in 2013 during the November (fall) races. In the spring races, things haven't been promising of late. He has gotten worse with every finish since the 2014 race. He has finishes of 31st, 18th, 8th and 4th. He is probably bound to break that trend in 2018, as I find it hard to believe that he will finish worse than 31st.

At New Hampshire, he is a former winner at this track and he is pretty underrated, too. In July 2014, he had a strong race going. Then he wrecked into Morgan Shepherd, while leading the race. Of course things got heated after the race, when Logano wanted to confront Morgan about the incident (he didn't). But that's a story for a different day. In Septmber 2014, he went to victory lane. That started a 4-race span that resulted in 4 straight top 4 finishes from September 2014 to July 2016. After that, he has posted finishes of 11th, 37th and 10th in his last three races at this track.

At Indy, he has been impressive since joining 22 team. In his last five races at Indy, he has compiled 5 straight top 8 finishes. He has led at least 6 laps in 4 of those 5 races. In his last four races, he has finished in the top 5 three (3) times. In 7 of his 9 career races, he has posted finishes in the top 12. He finished 4th in last season's race. Then there's Pocono! He started things off very well at Pocono in his first 7 starts with the 22 team. In 5 of his first 7 starts, he posted finishes in the top 10. In his last three starts at this track, he has finished 23rd or worse. While 4 of his last 5 races has ended in 20th or worse. I want to believe that Logano is a solid driver at Pocono, it is very worrisome seeing his recent results. If I didn't look at stats often as I do, I would be shocked.

Bristol is a very good track for Joey. He is one of the best drivers in the series here. In 6 of his last 9 races at Bristol, he has finished in the top 10. He has been a lot better in the August's races than the April's races. In 5 races in the August (summer) races, he has posted finishes of 13th, 10th, 1st, 1st and 5th. What I don't like about those finishes? He is going in the wrong direction in the finishes department. But don't get it twisted though, he can turn it around at any moment. He is very good at Bristol. At Martinsville, I would say that he doesn't get credit on. He has really turned it around since joining the 22 team. In his last 8 races, he has finished 11th or better in 6 races. In 5 of those 6 races, he has finished in the top 10. With 4 of those 5 races ending inside the top 5. He has led laps in 8 straight races at Martinsville Speedway.

At the plate tracks, Joey has had his moments. He is inconsistent, but he does have some good finishes of late going at Daytona. Back in 2015, Joey won the Daytona 500. Then he posted 3 straight top 6 finishes from February 2016 to February 2017. So overall 4 of his last 6 Daytona races has ended in the top 6. Not bad at all! He doesn't have a lot of success at Talladega, but he certainly does have some really good results in the October (fall) races. In his last three fall races at Talladega, he has compiled 3 straight top 4 finishes. Including finishes of 4th, 1st and 1st. Over his last 5 races overall during the fall times, he has finished 16th or better. In the spring races? Completely different story. Since 2010, he has just one good finish at Talladega in the spring races. And that was 10th in 2011. He has posted finishes of 32nd, 25th, 33rd, 32nd, 35th, 26th, 10th and 36th during the spring races. So overall 7 of 8 races has ended in 25th or worse. Isn't that insane?

The Road courses will be a good spot for Joey in 2018! I always considered Joey as a pretty underrated road course racer. People don't usually think of him at either place, but he has developed very nicely into one of the most consistent drivers in the series. At Sonoma, he has compiled 6 top 12 finishes in his last 7 races. Over the past three seasons, he has compiled 3 straight top 12 finishes. Including finishes of 12th, 3rd and 5th. Watkins Glen is his better road course and that doesn't come as a shocker, either. Over his last 5 races at Watkins Glen, he has compiled 4 top 7 finishes in that 5-race span. Overall he has finished 5 of his last 7 races in the top 7. He won back in 2015 and finished 2nd in 2016. In 2017, he ended up finishing 24th.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18