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Martin Truex Jr won the championship at Homestead to end the 2017 season. Pretty damn good way to end a career-year for a driver coming off back-to-back career years. Can he have another career-year in 2018? It is a no from I would have to say. When you have the season that Truex Jr did, it is almost impossible to back up or surpass it the following season. That just how it goes in this sport. There's a point, where you have to accept there will be some sort of regress in the numbers. Every great driver will experience that at some point in their careers. Their previous season was so good that it is unavoidable. I think that what we can expect from Martin Truex Jr in 2018! With that said, I still expect him to be the best driver in the series, score the most top 5, wins and probably contend for the championship again.
Intermediate tracks are obviously the biggest strength for Truex Jr and 78 team entering the 2018 season. He has been so stupid fast on these intermediate tracks over the past couple seasons, you can almost pick every time you go to one and he will win. Obviously, he should be the odds-on favorite almost every time we go to one of the intermediate tracks. Especially the 1.5 mile tracks. He was top 2 guy in every race on this type of track in 2017. His top three intermediate tracks are Chicago, Darlington and Dover. Then there's places like Charlotte (missed the top 3 - because we are no long going to the 1.5 mile track), Texas and Homestead that just missed the cut, but could easily be put in that top 3. But Truex Jr just so damn good everywhere. It is hard to just pick 2 or 3 tracks and be happy about it.
At Dover, he's really good. He scored his first career win back in 2007 with DEI. After that it took awhile for him to get back on track. But since the 2014 season, he has been on it at Dover. In his last 8 races at Dover, Truex Jr has posted 8 straight top 11 finishes. His worst finish is 11th and that was in October 2015. In his 6 of his other 7 races, he has finished 7th or better. In his last three races at Dover, he has finishes of 1st, 3rd and 4th. 3 straight top 4 finishes is pretty damn good to ride into 2018 with. He will have a great chance at making it 4 and 5 straight in 2018, in my opinion.
At Darlington, he has always been excellent. At Darlington, he owns his career-best average finish of 11.3 in 12 races. His only finish worse than 19th came in 2014, where he finished 27th. Since finishing 27th in 2014, he has knocked off three straight top 9 finishes. He won back in 2016 and followed it with another strong performance in 2017. He has led in each of the past two seasons, too. He isn't a standout here, when looking at his numbers lately. But he has been good here for some long, it is hard to dismiss his career-long success on a consistent basis. At Chicago, he has just been on it the past couple seasons. Prior to winning in the past two seasons at Chicago, he had no finishes better than 9th in his career. But over his last three seasons at Chicago, he has led at least 30 laps in each event. He finished 13th in 2015 event, but he led 39 laps on his way to that 13th place finish. In last season's race, he led 77 laps on his way to victory lane for the second straight season.
The shorter flats are underrated for Truex Jr and I don't know why. He has proven that he can be a force on tracks outside of the intermediate tracks. Yet, people still haven't figured that out. Don't be surprised when he really really good in 2018 at the venues of New Hampshire, Richmond and ISM (formerly known as Phoenix). At New Hampshire, he has been unbelievable at New Hampshire. He has led 100+ laps in each of his last four races at this track. Kyle Busch has been class of the field, but Truex Jr is likely his biggest challenger now. In July 2016, he had proabbly the 2nd or 3rd best car, but ended up finishing 16th, after leading 123 laps. In September 2016, he finished 7th after leading 141 laps. In 2017, he had finishes of 5th and 3rd. He led 141 laps and 112 laps in those two races. Do you see a trend at New Hampshire?
At Richmond, he has been good. Well at least in the summer races. In the past two summer (September) races, as he ha led over 190 laps in each race. In 3 of his last 4 races, he has finished in the top 10. He only has one top 5 finish during that span though. In 6 of his last 9 races at Richmond, he has finished in the top 10. He is lacking the wins and top 5 finishes for the most part, but you can see the potential. A driver like Truex Jr won't need a lot of that to be a dangerous fantasy option. Then there is ISM (Phoenix)! Of the three tracks, I would say that this is the weakest link for Truex Jr. He haven't led a singe lap since the 2012 season at ISM. In 24 career starts, he has only led twice at ISM. Over his last 7 races at ISM, he has compiled 6 finishes of 14th or better. In 2017, he had finishes of 3rd and 11th. In the fall's race, he finished 3rd. That by far his best performance at ISM since joining the 78 team.
At Bristol and Martinsville, his numbers are more mid-pack-like than you would like. That doesn't mean he haven't ran well though. At Bristol, he has had a tough time finishing on the lead lap. In 6 of his last 9 Bristol races, he has finished outside of the top 20. In those 9 races, he has only 3 finishes in the top 20. Including his finish of 8th. That came in spring of 2017. He led a career-best 116 laps on to a career-best performance at Bristol. Not his best career finishes though. He finished 3rd and 2nd during August 2011 and March 2012. At Martinsville, he has finished in the top 7 in 4 of his last 6 races. In 2 of his last 3 races at Martinsville, he has finished 2nd and 7th. In last fall's race, he finished 2nd. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has led at least 20 laps in each race. He's underrated here.
The larger flats has been very good for him of late and 2017 was another great year for him. At Pocono, he posted finishes in the top 6 in both races. And back in June 2015, he ended up going to victory lane. In August 2015, he was strong again. That was the epic fuel mileage race and he was a strong contender for that race. He was top 5 with a few laps to go, before eventually running out of fuel. In June 2016, he finished 19th. He was noncompetitive in that race and he had everything go wrong for him. From loose tires to speeding penalty to getting in an incident on pit road. It was just a forgettable race for him. In August 2016, he had a great car. He was using the same car he dominated at Charlotte (earlier in the season) and he was looking great. But then he got inovlved in a wreck, after a caution. He went a lap or so down but remained without striking distance. Then he smacked the wall again and pretty much ended his day. At Indy, he had a result in 2017. Him and Kyle Busch dominant the event. They ran 1-2 all day long, until they wrecked together while batting for the lead. Before that, he has been very good overall. In his last 5 races at Indy, he has posted 4 top 11 finishes during those 5 races. You can expect him to be one of the strongest drivers in the series again.
Plate tracks aren't a bad place for him, but it should be consider a weak link for him though. At Daytona, he has posted 4 top 15 finishes in his last 7 races. His other three finishes has been 34th 29th and 38th. In 5 of his last 9 races, he has finished 29th or worse. Like most drivers, sometimes luck just doesn't seems to be on his side. He's a underrated plate racer, I will say that though. At Talladega, his numbers are pretty similar. He has 3 finishes of 13th or better. In his other four races, he has posted finishes of 23rd, 35th, 40th and 27th. Most notable at Talladega. He has finished outside of the top 20 in 3 straight races at Talladega.
He's very good on the road courses and he has been for quite awhile. Back in his MWR days, he was pretty good and has only gotten better with experience. At Watkins Glen, I would say that it is one of his best tracks. He has always been great. You can go back ot his DEI days to find success. That was a decade ago now. In 5 of his last 7 races at WGI, he has finished in the top 10. In 3 of his last 5 races at WGI, he has finished 7th or better. He even scored his first career win at WGI in the 2017 race. At Sonoma, he has been good. In 4 of his last 7 races, he has finished 15th or better. In his last 5 races, he has finished 15th or better in 3 of those races. Bad news? In 2 of his last 3 races has ended in an DNF. He finished 5th in 2016. His most recent top 5 finish before that? His first career road course win back in 2013.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Martin Truex Jr won the championship at Homestead to end the 2017 season. Pretty damn good way to end a career-year for a driver coming off back-to-back career years. Can he have another career-year in 2018? It is a no from I would have to say. When you have the season that Truex Jr did, it is almost impossible to back up or surpass it the following season. That just how it goes in this sport. There's a point, where you have to accept there will be some sort of regress in the numbers. Every great driver will experience that at some point in their careers. Their previous season was so good that it is unavoidable. I think that what we can expect from Martin Truex Jr in 2018! With that said, I still expect him to be the best driver in the series, score the most top 5, wins and probably contend for the championship again.
Intermediate tracks are obviously the biggest strength for Truex Jr and 78 team entering the 2018 season. He has been so stupid fast on these intermediate tracks over the past couple seasons, you can almost pick every time you go to one and he will win. Obviously, he should be the odds-on favorite almost every time we go to one of the intermediate tracks. Especially the 1.5 mile tracks. He was top 2 guy in every race on this type of track in 2017. His top three intermediate tracks are Chicago, Darlington and Dover. Then there's places like Charlotte (missed the top 3 - because we are no long going to the 1.5 mile track), Texas and Homestead that just missed the cut, but could easily be put in that top 3. But Truex Jr just so damn good everywhere. It is hard to just pick 2 or 3 tracks and be happy about it.
At Dover, he's really good. He scored his first career win back in 2007 with DEI. After that it took awhile for him to get back on track. But since the 2014 season, he has been on it at Dover. In his last 8 races at Dover, Truex Jr has posted 8 straight top 11 finishes. His worst finish is 11th and that was in October 2015. In his 6 of his other 7 races, he has finished 7th or better. In his last three races at Dover, he has finishes of 1st, 3rd and 4th. 3 straight top 4 finishes is pretty damn good to ride into 2018 with. He will have a great chance at making it 4 and 5 straight in 2018, in my opinion.
At Darlington, he has always been excellent. At Darlington, he owns his career-best average finish of 11.3 in 12 races. His only finish worse than 19th came in 2014, where he finished 27th. Since finishing 27th in 2014, he has knocked off three straight top 9 finishes. He won back in 2016 and followed it with another strong performance in 2017. He has led in each of the past two seasons, too. He isn't a standout here, when looking at his numbers lately. But he has been good here for some long, it is hard to dismiss his career-long success on a consistent basis. At Chicago, he has just been on it the past couple seasons. Prior to winning in the past two seasons at Chicago, he had no finishes better than 9th in his career. But over his last three seasons at Chicago, he has led at least 30 laps in each event. He finished 13th in 2015 event, but he led 39 laps on his way to that 13th place finish. In last season's race, he led 77 laps on his way to victory lane for the second straight season.
The shorter flats are underrated for Truex Jr and I don't know why. He has proven that he can be a force on tracks outside of the intermediate tracks. Yet, people still haven't figured that out. Don't be surprised when he really really good in 2018 at the venues of New Hampshire, Richmond and ISM (formerly known as Phoenix). At New Hampshire, he has been unbelievable at New Hampshire. He has led 100+ laps in each of his last four races at this track. Kyle Busch has been class of the field, but Truex Jr is likely his biggest challenger now. In July 2016, he had proabbly the 2nd or 3rd best car, but ended up finishing 16th, after leading 123 laps. In September 2016, he finished 7th after leading 141 laps. In 2017, he had finishes of 5th and 3rd. He led 141 laps and 112 laps in those two races. Do you see a trend at New Hampshire?
At Richmond, he has been good. Well at least in the summer races. In the past two summer (September) races, as he ha led over 190 laps in each race. In 3 of his last 4 races, he has finished in the top 10. He only has one top 5 finish during that span though. In 6 of his last 9 races at Richmond, he has finished in the top 10. He is lacking the wins and top 5 finishes for the most part, but you can see the potential. A driver like Truex Jr won't need a lot of that to be a dangerous fantasy option. Then there is ISM (Phoenix)! Of the three tracks, I would say that this is the weakest link for Truex Jr. He haven't led a singe lap since the 2012 season at ISM. In 24 career starts, he has only led twice at ISM. Over his last 7 races at ISM, he has compiled 6 finishes of 14th or better. In 2017, he had finishes of 3rd and 11th. In the fall's race, he finished 3rd. That by far his best performance at ISM since joining the 78 team.
At Bristol and Martinsville, his numbers are more mid-pack-like than you would like. That doesn't mean he haven't ran well though. At Bristol, he has had a tough time finishing on the lead lap. In 6 of his last 9 Bristol races, he has finished outside of the top 20. In those 9 races, he has only 3 finishes in the top 20. Including his finish of 8th. That came in spring of 2017. He led a career-best 116 laps on to a career-best performance at Bristol. Not his best career finishes though. He finished 3rd and 2nd during August 2011 and March 2012. At Martinsville, he has finished in the top 7 in 4 of his last 6 races. In 2 of his last 3 races at Martinsville, he has finished 2nd and 7th. In last fall's race, he finished 2nd. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has led at least 20 laps in each race. He's underrated here.
The larger flats has been very good for him of late and 2017 was another great year for him. At Pocono, he posted finishes in the top 6 in both races. And back in June 2015, he ended up going to victory lane. In August 2015, he was strong again. That was the epic fuel mileage race and he was a strong contender for that race. He was top 5 with a few laps to go, before eventually running out of fuel. In June 2016, he finished 19th. He was noncompetitive in that race and he had everything go wrong for him. From loose tires to speeding penalty to getting in an incident on pit road. It was just a forgettable race for him. In August 2016, he had a great car. He was using the same car he dominated at Charlotte (earlier in the season) and he was looking great. But then he got inovlved in a wreck, after a caution. He went a lap or so down but remained without striking distance. Then he smacked the wall again and pretty much ended his day. At Indy, he had a result in 2017. Him and Kyle Busch dominant the event. They ran 1-2 all day long, until they wrecked together while batting for the lead. Before that, he has been very good overall. In his last 5 races at Indy, he has posted 4 top 11 finishes during those 5 races. You can expect him to be one of the strongest drivers in the series again.
Plate tracks aren't a bad place for him, but it should be consider a weak link for him though. At Daytona, he has posted 4 top 15 finishes in his last 7 races. His other three finishes has been 34th 29th and 38th. In 5 of his last 9 races, he has finished 29th or worse. Like most drivers, sometimes luck just doesn't seems to be on his side. He's a underrated plate racer, I will say that though. At Talladega, his numbers are pretty similar. He has 3 finishes of 13th or better. In his other four races, he has posted finishes of 23rd, 35th, 40th and 27th. Most notable at Talladega. He has finished outside of the top 20 in 3 straight races at Talladega.
He's very good on the road courses and he has been for quite awhile. Back in his MWR days, he was pretty good and has only gotten better with experience. At Watkins Glen, I would say that it is one of his best tracks. He has always been great. You can go back ot his DEI days to find success. That was a decade ago now. In 5 of his last 7 races at WGI, he has finished in the top 10. In 3 of his last 5 races at WGI, he has finished 7th or better. He even scored his first career win at WGI in the 2017 race. At Sonoma, he has been good. In 4 of his last 7 races, he has finished 15th or better. In his last 5 races, he has finished 15th or better in 3 of those races. Bad news? In 2 of his last 3 races has ended in an DNF. He finished 5th in 2016. His most recent top 5 finish before that? His first career road course win back in 2013.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
