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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: The Driver of the No.1 car is very underrated here at Cali, especially over the past couple seasons. In the past four seasons at Cali, he has finished in the top 10 three times. In the past two seasons, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. During those two seasons, he also has completed 73% of the laps inside the top 15. In 2017, he was very strong. Statistically in that race, he had his best performance on record. In that event, he finished 6th, posted 6.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. Earlier this season, he struggled at Atlanta. He had a bad race at Las Vegas, but he was top 15 good before smashing into the wall.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has three straight top 10 finishes, including one win in the 2015 season. In his first 6 (and previous) starts, he had no finishes better than 18th. So obviously, he has made some serious gains. However, outside of his win, he has underperformed the past couple seasons. He has top 10 finishes in each of his last two seasons, but his in-race numbers are down though. In his last two races at Cali, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position with 87.5 driver rating. He finished better than he ran in each race. In the other two intermediate tracks this season, he was very strong at Atlanta. He had the second-best car and led 38 laps. At Las Vegas, I thought he was top 5 good overall and contended for a top 5 for most of the event. He hung around 3rd-6th for majority of the event.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon isn't bad at Cali, but he isn't that great, either. In four career starts at Cali, he has compiled 3 top 16 finishes. All three finishes has ended in 11th-16th. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 17.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 84.5 driver rating. Those stats could be even better, if it wasn't for the 2016 race. He started on the pole and was running top 10 with under 10 to go. On the final pit stop with just few laps to go, his pit gun broke in middle of a pit stop. His chances at a good finish pretty much was over right there. Tough finish after a solid weekend for the No.3 car. On the intermediate tracks this season, he has been consistent. At Atlanta and Las Vegas, he had finishes of 14th and 13th. He wasn't anything special in either race, but he got good finishes in both finishes. Things are lining p for him to finish in the top 15 once again this weekend at Cali!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had a tough race in 2017 at Cali. He got nose damage at start of the race and had to pit to fix it. He would restart at tail end of the field and have to charge through the field. Just before halfway through the race, he cut a tire and had to pit again. He would eventually get back on the lead lap late in the race and save his day with 13th place finish. Needless to say that it was a long and rough day at the track for the 4 team. In 2015 and 2016, he finished 2nd in both race. He led 142 laps in 2016 and he led 34 in 2015. I thought that in 2016, he had the car to beat and should had won that race. He didn't, but I still thought that was one of his best performances of the season. He had such a hotrod that day. At both Atlanta and Las Vegas, he led the most laps and won both races. He has three straight wins with his win at Phoenix last weekend. Can anyone stop him? Harvick is a great fantasy option at Cali!
9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has been great at Cali in two career starts so far. Over the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. In those two races, he completed 97% of the laps inside the top 15. In 2016, he led one lap and finished 6th. He was very good on the long runs and was running top 5 in second half of the event. In 2017, he was even better. He finished 12th, but he was top 5 good for the race. He held 5.0 average running position and 112.8 driver rating for the event. Only Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr performed better for the entire event.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin doesn't have great finishes here, but he has led in 6 straight races now. Problem is? In half of those races, he has finished outside of the top 20. In fact, 4 of his last 5 races at Cali, he has finished outside of the top 10. He has performed very well in the races recently though. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. In 2017, he finished 14th. During the race, he led 92.5 driver rating with 8.0 average running position. He finished 3rd in 2016. In 2015, he was in a position to win late but he had a pit road penalty that caused him to finish 28th Prior to that, he led 56 laps and running top 3 before the caution.
12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney haven't been that good at Cali so far in his career. He finished 9th in last season's race, but that was only his second career start at the track in the cup series. In that event, he compiled 12.0 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. In that event, he completed 73% of the laps inside the top 15. He was top 12 good at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. So while there isn't much data to go on with his track history, he also offer good seasonal data. And as much as people want to believe that track history is ''huge'', it is really not. Current season data a lot of times is a lot more important because it is more relevant. In Blaney's situation, I think it is even more important. I believe he will set a new career-best finish this weekend at Cali.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: The Driver of the No.17 car haven't been bad at Cali, but he haven't been great, either. In 5 career starts, he has 4 finishes in the top 20. In 2016, he had his best car ever at Cali. He not only finished 5th, but he was legit. That was by far his best finish and in-race performance. He wasn't top 5 good or close to it, but he was much better than anyone ever gives him credit for. I thought he was pretty underrated in 2017 race as well. He finished 16th, but he was a top 15 driver for most of the event. He completed 89% of the laps in the top 15 and held 14.0 average running position for the race. Over the past two seasons, Ricky has completed 87% of the laps and held 13.0 average running position. That's very solid!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is very good at this large intermediate track and he should be considered one of the best picks in the field for this weekend. In 5 of his last 6 races at Cali, he has finished 8th or better. From 2011 to 2014, he had four straight top 3 finishes. Including finishing in the top 3 and led 80+ laps in three straight races between 2011 and 2013. He won back-to-back races in 2013 and 2014. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 16.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 97.5 driver rating. His average finish is so far down because of the 2016 race. He was running in the top 10 late in the race and then a tire went down and he smashed into the wall. He didn't have a great day, but it was a pretty good up to that point. He finished 8th in the 2017 race.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez haven't been off to a good start to the 2018 season, but he has performed well at times during the first four races. I think Suarez and rest of the JGR cars will only get better as the season goes on in 2018. In last season's event at Cali, Daniel scored his first career top 10 finish. It should be noted that he only held 17.0 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Like for much of Daniel's first handful of races, most of his good finishes weren't on par with his performances for the event. But as the season went on, he performing closer to the top 10 than not. I think that could be the case once again here in 2018 as well.
20-Erik Jones: Erik Jones has gotten off to a solid start to the season. The driver of the No.20 car has been solid everywhere we had gone. He will look to keep it going at Cali. Earlier this season, he had finishes of 8th and 11th at the other two intermediate tracks. It is not great or anything like that, but it is certainly better than what a lot of drivers out there can say though. In his lone start at Cali, he was very good here in 2017. In that event, he held 7.0 (!) average running position and 100.7 driver rating. He completed 99% of the laps inside the top 15, while finishing 12th. If you cannot already tell, he was better than that 12th place finish. He was legit top 10 driver and probably a lot closer to a top 5 guy, too.
22-Joey Logano: It may be a bit early to say that Logano is back, but I think he's back from that ugly 2017 season that he had. And his record here at Cali is impressive. In 4 of his last 5 races at Cali, he has finished 7th or better. Over the past two seasons, he has finished in the top 5 both seasons. In the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 4.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 107.0 driver rating. On other intermediate tracks this season, he has compiled finishes of 6th and 7th at Las Vegas and Atlanta. He had 6.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position in those two races here in 2018. He is ranked as the 6th-best driver in the series in those two races.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman has shown some really good speed on the intermediate tracks here in 2018. He started on the pole at Atlanta and was top 10 before his long day started. At Las Vegas, he started 25th but showed good speed throughout the weekend. He eventually finished 11th for the event. Not bad at all, especially since he has shown some potential. He's very good at Cali, too. Since 2010 season (8 races), he haven't finished worse than 20th. During that span, he has posted top 10 finishes in 5 of his last 8 races. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled finishes of 15th and 14th. He finished 5th back in 2015. He is capable of finishing in or near the top 10 this weekend. But headed into the weekend, I would say he is low-teens worthy driver overall.
41-Kurt Busch: Like teammate Kevin Harvick, the driver of the No.41 car has been very fast at the intermediate tracks this season. He was fast at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. He just didn't get the finishes in either race though. He finished 7th at Atlanta, after leading 52 laps and having a top 5 car. At Las Vegas, he was running top 10 day until wrecking into Chase Elliott. That ended his day. And Cali is a very good track for him, he just have had bad luck over the past couple seasons. A couple years ago, I would had considered this as one of his best tracks. Don't be fooled by his 24th and 30th places finishes over the past two seasons. In his prior 9 races (to 2016), he had 7 Top 10 finishes in those 9 races. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes between 2012 and 2015. He had 3 straight top 5 finishes in 2013 and 2015. I still think this one of his best tracks!
42-Kyle Larson: Mr. 2-mile himself will be tough to beat. Over the past two seasons, Kyle Larson has been very tough. Last season, he won every 2-mile race. He won at Michigan twice and at Cali. In fact, he has won the last 4 races at the 2-mile tracks. He finished 2nd in the first Michigan in 2016. This kid is stud. How well he has ran on the intermediate tracks over the past year and a half has been impressive. In last season's race, he led the most laps and held 2.0 average running position on his way to victory lane. He is looking for his 5 straight win at either Michigan or Cali. This is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend. Don't overlook the driver of the No.42 car!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Cali is a good track for Jimmie Johnson overall. He is not nearly as good as he once was, but still pretty good. He finished 21st in last season's race, but prior to that he had finishes of 1st and 9th. I still believe that the 48 team is missing something heading into the weekend, but I think HMS is gaining on it and all of the cars are getting better. You should probably expect Johnson to have top 10 potential this weekend, but he is not ready to challenge for the top 5 or wins yet. I will say that he really surprised me how hard he battled back at Las Vegas. After going 2 laps down early at Las Vegas. I will be honest, I pinned him as a goner after that. Then again, you don't become a 7-time championship for nothing. Nevertheless, I think this 48 team has some work to do. Especially based on last weekend at Phoenix. He never ran better than 10th place. That all you need to know, where the 48 team actually is
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr haven't been as dominant or even close to what he was last season or the season before. On intermediate tracks here in 2018, he haven't been bad at all. At Las Vegas and Atlanta, he held 4.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 108.2 driver rating. He finished 5th at Atlanta, after starting 35th. At Las Vegas, he finished 4th and led 6 laps. So two top 5 finishes in 2 races on intermediate tracks here in 2018. By Truex Jr's standards, he is having a down year. But make no mistake: those are phenomenal numbers. Not many other drivers can say that finished top 5 in both races. Over the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. In last season's race, he finished 4th and led the 2nd-most laps to race winner's Kyle Larson. In the event, he had the second-best average running position (3.0) and second-best driver rating (130.8) as well. He also had the second-most fast laps (35) as well. He was pretty much 2nd in everything in last season's race. Not bad, considering how strong the 42 car was in that event.
88-Alex Bowman: Bowman haven't been bad this season and has performed decent on the intermediate tracks so far. He have two top 20 finishes and looking for a 3rd this weekend at Cali. He finished 20 at Atlanta and 16th at Las Vegas. In those two races, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 66.3 driver rating. Again, he haven't been awesome or anything. But I think the HMS cars will only get better as the season goes on. From a fantasy nascar point of view, we will have to take it slow with Bowman. I think he will be closer to the front consistently as they make progress with these cars. For now, it is the waiting game. This weekend, I think he is capable of another top 20 finish with upside in the top 15.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: The Driver of the No.1 car is very underrated here at Cali, especially over the past couple seasons. In the past four seasons at Cali, he has finished in the top 10 three times. In the past two seasons, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. During those two seasons, he also has completed 73% of the laps inside the top 15. In 2017, he was very strong. Statistically in that race, he had his best performance on record. In that event, he finished 6th, posted 6.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. Earlier this season, he struggled at Atlanta. He had a bad race at Las Vegas, but he was top 15 good before smashing into the wall.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has three straight top 10 finishes, including one win in the 2015 season. In his first 6 (and previous) starts, he had no finishes better than 18th. So obviously, he has made some serious gains. However, outside of his win, he has underperformed the past couple seasons. He has top 10 finishes in each of his last two seasons, but his in-race numbers are down though. In his last two races at Cali, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position with 87.5 driver rating. He finished better than he ran in each race. In the other two intermediate tracks this season, he was very strong at Atlanta. He had the second-best car and led 38 laps. At Las Vegas, I thought he was top 5 good overall and contended for a top 5 for most of the event. He hung around 3rd-6th for majority of the event.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon isn't bad at Cali, but he isn't that great, either. In four career starts at Cali, he has compiled 3 top 16 finishes. All three finishes has ended in 11th-16th. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 17.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 84.5 driver rating. Those stats could be even better, if it wasn't for the 2016 race. He started on the pole and was running top 10 with under 10 to go. On the final pit stop with just few laps to go, his pit gun broke in middle of a pit stop. His chances at a good finish pretty much was over right there. Tough finish after a solid weekend for the No.3 car. On the intermediate tracks this season, he has been consistent. At Atlanta and Las Vegas, he had finishes of 14th and 13th. He wasn't anything special in either race, but he got good finishes in both finishes. Things are lining p for him to finish in the top 15 once again this weekend at Cali!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had a tough race in 2017 at Cali. He got nose damage at start of the race and had to pit to fix it. He would restart at tail end of the field and have to charge through the field. Just before halfway through the race, he cut a tire and had to pit again. He would eventually get back on the lead lap late in the race and save his day with 13th place finish. Needless to say that it was a long and rough day at the track for the 4 team. In 2015 and 2016, he finished 2nd in both race. He led 142 laps in 2016 and he led 34 in 2015. I thought that in 2016, he had the car to beat and should had won that race. He didn't, but I still thought that was one of his best performances of the season. He had such a hotrod that day. At both Atlanta and Las Vegas, he led the most laps and won both races. He has three straight wins with his win at Phoenix last weekend. Can anyone stop him? Harvick is a great fantasy option at Cali!
9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has been great at Cali in two career starts so far. Over the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. In those two races, he completed 97% of the laps inside the top 15. In 2016, he led one lap and finished 6th. He was very good on the long runs and was running top 5 in second half of the event. In 2017, he was even better. He finished 12th, but he was top 5 good for the race. He held 5.0 average running position and 112.8 driver rating for the event. Only Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr performed better for the entire event.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin doesn't have great finishes here, but he has led in 6 straight races now. Problem is? In half of those races, he has finished outside of the top 20. In fact, 4 of his last 5 races at Cali, he has finished outside of the top 10. He has performed very well in the races recently though. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. In 2017, he finished 14th. During the race, he led 92.5 driver rating with 8.0 average running position. He finished 3rd in 2016. In 2015, he was in a position to win late but he had a pit road penalty that caused him to finish 28th Prior to that, he led 56 laps and running top 3 before the caution.
12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney haven't been that good at Cali so far in his career. He finished 9th in last season's race, but that was only his second career start at the track in the cup series. In that event, he compiled 12.0 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. In that event, he completed 73% of the laps inside the top 15. He was top 12 good at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. So while there isn't much data to go on with his track history, he also offer good seasonal data. And as much as people want to believe that track history is ''huge'', it is really not. Current season data a lot of times is a lot more important because it is more relevant. In Blaney's situation, I think it is even more important. I believe he will set a new career-best finish this weekend at Cali.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: The Driver of the No.17 car haven't been bad at Cali, but he haven't been great, either. In 5 career starts, he has 4 finishes in the top 20. In 2016, he had his best car ever at Cali. He not only finished 5th, but he was legit. That was by far his best finish and in-race performance. He wasn't top 5 good or close to it, but he was much better than anyone ever gives him credit for. I thought he was pretty underrated in 2017 race as well. He finished 16th, but he was a top 15 driver for most of the event. He completed 89% of the laps in the top 15 and held 14.0 average running position for the race. Over the past two seasons, Ricky has completed 87% of the laps and held 13.0 average running position. That's very solid!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is very good at this large intermediate track and he should be considered one of the best picks in the field for this weekend. In 5 of his last 6 races at Cali, he has finished 8th or better. From 2011 to 2014, he had four straight top 3 finishes. Including finishing in the top 3 and led 80+ laps in three straight races between 2011 and 2013. He won back-to-back races in 2013 and 2014. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 16.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 97.5 driver rating. His average finish is so far down because of the 2016 race. He was running in the top 10 late in the race and then a tire went down and he smashed into the wall. He didn't have a great day, but it was a pretty good up to that point. He finished 8th in the 2017 race.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez haven't been off to a good start to the 2018 season, but he has performed well at times during the first four races. I think Suarez and rest of the JGR cars will only get better as the season goes on in 2018. In last season's event at Cali, Daniel scored his first career top 10 finish. It should be noted that he only held 17.0 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Like for much of Daniel's first handful of races, most of his good finishes weren't on par with his performances for the event. But as the season went on, he performing closer to the top 10 than not. I think that could be the case once again here in 2018 as well.
20-Erik Jones: Erik Jones has gotten off to a solid start to the season. The driver of the No.20 car has been solid everywhere we had gone. He will look to keep it going at Cali. Earlier this season, he had finishes of 8th and 11th at the other two intermediate tracks. It is not great or anything like that, but it is certainly better than what a lot of drivers out there can say though. In his lone start at Cali, he was very good here in 2017. In that event, he held 7.0 (!) average running position and 100.7 driver rating. He completed 99% of the laps inside the top 15, while finishing 12th. If you cannot already tell, he was better than that 12th place finish. He was legit top 10 driver and probably a lot closer to a top 5 guy, too.
22-Joey Logano: It may be a bit early to say that Logano is back, but I think he's back from that ugly 2017 season that he had. And his record here at Cali is impressive. In 4 of his last 5 races at Cali, he has finished 7th or better. Over the past two seasons, he has finished in the top 5 both seasons. In the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 4.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 107.0 driver rating. On other intermediate tracks this season, he has compiled finishes of 6th and 7th at Las Vegas and Atlanta. He had 6.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position in those two races here in 2018. He is ranked as the 6th-best driver in the series in those two races.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman has shown some really good speed on the intermediate tracks here in 2018. He started on the pole at Atlanta and was top 10 before his long day started. At Las Vegas, he started 25th but showed good speed throughout the weekend. He eventually finished 11th for the event. Not bad at all, especially since he has shown some potential. He's very good at Cali, too. Since 2010 season (8 races), he haven't finished worse than 20th. During that span, he has posted top 10 finishes in 5 of his last 8 races. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled finishes of 15th and 14th. He finished 5th back in 2015. He is capable of finishing in or near the top 10 this weekend. But headed into the weekend, I would say he is low-teens worthy driver overall.
41-Kurt Busch: Like teammate Kevin Harvick, the driver of the No.41 car has been very fast at the intermediate tracks this season. He was fast at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. He just didn't get the finishes in either race though. He finished 7th at Atlanta, after leading 52 laps and having a top 5 car. At Las Vegas, he was running top 10 day until wrecking into Chase Elliott. That ended his day. And Cali is a very good track for him, he just have had bad luck over the past couple seasons. A couple years ago, I would had considered this as one of his best tracks. Don't be fooled by his 24th and 30th places finishes over the past two seasons. In his prior 9 races (to 2016), he had 7 Top 10 finishes in those 9 races. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes between 2012 and 2015. He had 3 straight top 5 finishes in 2013 and 2015. I still think this one of his best tracks!
42-Kyle Larson: Mr. 2-mile himself will be tough to beat. Over the past two seasons, Kyle Larson has been very tough. Last season, he won every 2-mile race. He won at Michigan twice and at Cali. In fact, he has won the last 4 races at the 2-mile tracks. He finished 2nd in the first Michigan in 2016. This kid is stud. How well he has ran on the intermediate tracks over the past year and a half has been impressive. In last season's race, he led the most laps and held 2.0 average running position on his way to victory lane. He is looking for his 5 straight win at either Michigan or Cali. This is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend. Don't overlook the driver of the No.42 car!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Cali is a good track for Jimmie Johnson overall. He is not nearly as good as he once was, but still pretty good. He finished 21st in last season's race, but prior to that he had finishes of 1st and 9th. I still believe that the 48 team is missing something heading into the weekend, but I think HMS is gaining on it and all of the cars are getting better. You should probably expect Johnson to have top 10 potential this weekend, but he is not ready to challenge for the top 5 or wins yet. I will say that he really surprised me how hard he battled back at Las Vegas. After going 2 laps down early at Las Vegas. I will be honest, I pinned him as a goner after that. Then again, you don't become a 7-time championship for nothing. Nevertheless, I think this 48 team has some work to do. Especially based on last weekend at Phoenix. He never ran better than 10th place. That all you need to know, where the 48 team actually is
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr haven't been as dominant or even close to what he was last season or the season before. On intermediate tracks here in 2018, he haven't been bad at all. At Las Vegas and Atlanta, he held 4.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 108.2 driver rating. He finished 5th at Atlanta, after starting 35th. At Las Vegas, he finished 4th and led 6 laps. So two top 5 finishes in 2 races on intermediate tracks here in 2018. By Truex Jr's standards, he is having a down year. But make no mistake: those are phenomenal numbers. Not many other drivers can say that finished top 5 in both races. Over the past two seasons at Cali, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. In last season's race, he finished 4th and led the 2nd-most laps to race winner's Kyle Larson. In the event, he had the second-best average running position (3.0) and second-best driver rating (130.8) as well. He also had the second-most fast laps (35) as well. He was pretty much 2nd in everything in last season's race. Not bad, considering how strong the 42 car was in that event.
88-Alex Bowman: Bowman haven't been bad this season and has performed decent on the intermediate tracks so far. He have two top 20 finishes and looking for a 3rd this weekend at Cali. He finished 20 at Atlanta and 16th at Las Vegas. In those two races, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 66.3 driver rating. Again, he haven't been awesome or anything. But I think the HMS cars will only get better as the season goes on. From a fantasy nascar point of view, we will have to take it slow with Bowman. I think he will be closer to the front consistently as they make progress with these cars. For now, it is the waiting game. This weekend, I think he is capable of another top 20 finish with upside in the top 15.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
