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1. Martin Truex Jr - The 19 team has been so fast lately, but they always don't get the results to show for it. But I think that will be different on Sunday's afternoon! Truex Jr has always ran well here at Sonoma. He even scored a win with MWR back in 2013. That #56 car was so good that day, I remember it clearly because I had one of my best scores ever on a road course with him in my lineup. Crazy it has been 6 years since that event! Anyways, he has been really good on the road courses in that span, too. Over the last three seasons, he has posted two top 5 finishes. Including a win in last season's race! Two years ago, he won the first stage and led 25 laps. He ended his day in 37th, but his driver rating was over 100.0. That is typically a strong indication of a driver's performance. Over his last 8 races, he has posted a driver rating above 100 in 6 of those races! The two-time winner is a serious threat to win!
2. Kyle Busch - Busch has had a tough weekend overall, espeically in practice. But he did solid in qualifying and will start inside the top 10! I am not worried about Rowdy at all, he will be just fine in the race. In fact, we seen this before from big name drivers. I think he was simply trying things in practice, he will be a contender on raceday. Over his last four races here at Sonoma, he has not finished worse than 7th place. In those four races, he has posted 3 top 5 finishes. Including a win back in 2015!
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is an excellent road course racer and usually have stupid fast long run speed at Sonoma. This weekend is looking like the part and certainly could go to victory lane for the first time in 2019. He has been so close in recent weeks. He had the best car at Kansas and led 104, but finished 13th. Then two weeks ago at Michigan, he had the best car all weekend in my opinion. But in the race, he just couldn't get around the #22 car. I think that and the clean air prevented him from being a strong challenger for the win. Of course, issues in the final stage of the race also had a major factor in him not winning, too. That final stage of the Michigan's race was probably the story of the #4 team's season in 2019! He will have another chance to go to victory lane in Sunday's race, even though he is starting deep in the field. Over the last two races at Sonoma, he has finishes of 1st and 2nd. You cannot get much better than that!
4. Joey Logano - Logano not getting the love that he deserve and that partly because he doesn't have many strong finishes here. But he is very capable of being strong here in the race and I have a feeling he will be very strong. That #22 car is starting up inside the top 5 and they showed good speed in practice, too. I am not too sure how much that will mean in the race as skill typically outweigh lap times. But he has skill behind the wheel on these road courses and let's not forget that.
5. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is typically really good at these road courses and Sonoma is probably where I have the most faith in him at! He won here in 2012 with MWR (like former teammate Truex Jr did - a year later) and honestly always ran well here. In 13 career starts, he has finished in the top 10 ten times. Yes 10 of 13 races at Sonoma, he has finished in the top 10! Very impressive and the number look better as we dig deeper! In 8 of his last 12 starts here, he has finished in the top 5. That's a 66% clip, folks! Since 2011, he has finished 6 of the last 8 races in the top 5. Including 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 races here. There might not be a better bet than Clint Bowyer!
6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been really good over the last few seasons on the road courses and especially good at Sonoma! Over his last three starts at Sonoma, he has finished 10th, 4th and 2nd. In general, I think Hamlin can finish in the top 10 on any given weekend. I also think he can take a top 10 can and finish 22nd on any given weekend. And most times it is because he messes up on pit road. If Hamlin does not finish well on Sunday's afternoon, I bet it because something happens on pit road.
7. Chase Elliott - I think Elliott could possibly finish in the top 5, when it all said and done. He has gotten finish in each start here at Sonoma. In his first start, he finised just 21st. In his 2nd start, he was able to finish 8th and improved again by finishing 4th in his most recent start. Could he score a win this weekend? It is very possible. Elliott is one of those drivers that is smooth all-around and typically finishses well on all-types of tracks. He is at the very least good for a top 10 finish!
8. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson scored his third straight pole here at Sonoma, but history is not on his side though. In the previous two seasons, he has faded pretty quick. And he just doesn't fade, but would be running outside of the top 20 by end of the 2nd segment. Will this weekend be different? Hard to say, but at least they did focus on some racetrim in practice though. That is an improvement over the last couple seasons. Will it be enough for Larson to finish in at least in the top 10? Based on what I seen so far this weekend, I would say he has a pretty good chance.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt has an amazing record here at Sonoma. He rarely has a bad race at this track and I think he is due for another strong run on Sunday. Him and his CGR teammate looked good so far this weekend. In his last 8 races here at Sonoma, he has not finished worse than 12th place. Over his last 2 races here, he has finished 6th and 7th. That's not quite as good as his 3-race top 4 run between 2011 and 2013. But still, I find it hard to complain about getting top 10 finishes at Sonoma. He will roll off just outisde of the top 15 on Sunday's afternoon!
10. Jimmie Johnson - I actually have a pretty good feeling about Jimmie this weekend and I don't say that very often about the driver No.48 car these days. I think Johnson is very underrated on road courses and I think he can get a solid top 10 finish here at Sonoma. I think the days of hoping for wins out of Jimmie is long gone, but top 10 finishes are not out of the question. I think that is exactly what we should expect from him overall.
Just missed -
Brad Keselowski
Daniel Saurez
Ryan Blaney
Aric Almirola
William Byron
Alex Bowman
Ryan Newman
Erik Jones
****All stats from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
1. Martin Truex Jr - The 19 team has been so fast lately, but they always don't get the results to show for it. But I think that will be different on Sunday's afternoon! Truex Jr has always ran well here at Sonoma. He even scored a win with MWR back in 2013. That #56 car was so good that day, I remember it clearly because I had one of my best scores ever on a road course with him in my lineup. Crazy it has been 6 years since that event! Anyways, he has been really good on the road courses in that span, too. Over the last three seasons, he has posted two top 5 finishes. Including a win in last season's race! Two years ago, he won the first stage and led 25 laps. He ended his day in 37th, but his driver rating was over 100.0. That is typically a strong indication of a driver's performance. Over his last 8 races, he has posted a driver rating above 100 in 6 of those races! The two-time winner is a serious threat to win!
2. Kyle Busch - Busch has had a tough weekend overall, espeically in practice. But he did solid in qualifying and will start inside the top 10! I am not worried about Rowdy at all, he will be just fine in the race. In fact, we seen this before from big name drivers. I think he was simply trying things in practice, he will be a contender on raceday. Over his last four races here at Sonoma, he has not finished worse than 7th place. In those four races, he has posted 3 top 5 finishes. Including a win back in 2015!
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is an excellent road course racer and usually have stupid fast long run speed at Sonoma. This weekend is looking like the part and certainly could go to victory lane for the first time in 2019. He has been so close in recent weeks. He had the best car at Kansas and led 104, but finished 13th. Then two weeks ago at Michigan, he had the best car all weekend in my opinion. But in the race, he just couldn't get around the #22 car. I think that and the clean air prevented him from being a strong challenger for the win. Of course, issues in the final stage of the race also had a major factor in him not winning, too. That final stage of the Michigan's race was probably the story of the #4 team's season in 2019! He will have another chance to go to victory lane in Sunday's race, even though he is starting deep in the field. Over the last two races at Sonoma, he has finishes of 1st and 2nd. You cannot get much better than that!
4. Joey Logano - Logano not getting the love that he deserve and that partly because he doesn't have many strong finishes here. But he is very capable of being strong here in the race and I have a feeling he will be very strong. That #22 car is starting up inside the top 5 and they showed good speed in practice, too. I am not too sure how much that will mean in the race as skill typically outweigh lap times. But he has skill behind the wheel on these road courses and let's not forget that.
5. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is typically really good at these road courses and Sonoma is probably where I have the most faith in him at! He won here in 2012 with MWR (like former teammate Truex Jr did - a year later) and honestly always ran well here. In 13 career starts, he has finished in the top 10 ten times. Yes 10 of 13 races at Sonoma, he has finished in the top 10! Very impressive and the number look better as we dig deeper! In 8 of his last 12 starts here, he has finished in the top 5. That's a 66% clip, folks! Since 2011, he has finished 6 of the last 8 races in the top 5. Including 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 races here. There might not be a better bet than Clint Bowyer!
6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been really good over the last few seasons on the road courses and especially good at Sonoma! Over his last three starts at Sonoma, he has finished 10th, 4th and 2nd. In general, I think Hamlin can finish in the top 10 on any given weekend. I also think he can take a top 10 can and finish 22nd on any given weekend. And most times it is because he messes up on pit road. If Hamlin does not finish well on Sunday's afternoon, I bet it because something happens on pit road.
7. Chase Elliott - I think Elliott could possibly finish in the top 5, when it all said and done. He has gotten finish in each start here at Sonoma. In his first start, he finised just 21st. In his 2nd start, he was able to finish 8th and improved again by finishing 4th in his most recent start. Could he score a win this weekend? It is very possible. Elliott is one of those drivers that is smooth all-around and typically finishses well on all-types of tracks. He is at the very least good for a top 10 finish!
8. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson scored his third straight pole here at Sonoma, but history is not on his side though. In the previous two seasons, he has faded pretty quick. And he just doesn't fade, but would be running outside of the top 20 by end of the 2nd segment. Will this weekend be different? Hard to say, but at least they did focus on some racetrim in practice though. That is an improvement over the last couple seasons. Will it be enough for Larson to finish in at least in the top 10? Based on what I seen so far this weekend, I would say he has a pretty good chance.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt has an amazing record here at Sonoma. He rarely has a bad race at this track and I think he is due for another strong run on Sunday. Him and his CGR teammate looked good so far this weekend. In his last 8 races here at Sonoma, he has not finished worse than 12th place. Over his last 2 races here, he has finished 6th and 7th. That's not quite as good as his 3-race top 4 run between 2011 and 2013. But still, I find it hard to complain about getting top 10 finishes at Sonoma. He will roll off just outisde of the top 15 on Sunday's afternoon!
10. Jimmie Johnson - I actually have a pretty good feeling about Jimmie this weekend and I don't say that very often about the driver No.48 car these days. I think Johnson is very underrated on road courses and I think he can get a solid top 10 finish here at Sonoma. I think the days of hoping for wins out of Jimmie is long gone, but top 10 finishes are not out of the question. I think that is exactly what we should expect from him overall.
Just missed -
Brad Keselowski
Daniel Saurez
Ryan Blaney
Aric Almirola
William Byron
Alex Bowman
Ryan Newman
Erik Jones
****All stats from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
