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#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt has been really good here at Atlanta over the past few seasons! In the past 4 seasons here at Atlanta, he has finished 8th or better in every single race. In 5 of his last 6 races here at Atlanta, he has actually finished 8th or better. During that 6-race span, he has only one finish outside of the top 10 and that was 13th in 2014. That was his first seson with SHR and he really struggled to adjust to his new team honestly that whole year. So I will give him a pass in 2014!
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has been on a roll here at Atlanta over past three races and hasn't finished worse than 2nd in that span! Last season on the high-speed interemediate with tire wear, he only once failed to finish inside the the top 5. The lone exceptation was at Homestead, where he finished 18th. In those 5 races, he compiled 6.4 average finish with 9.9 average running position and 101.4 driver rating. If you take out that Homstead's race, he held 3.5 average finish with 8.1 average running position (3rd-best) and 109.3 driver rating. He was really good at similar tracks in 2019!
#3-Austin Dillon: Dillon hasn't really posted any standout numbers here at Atlanta, as he has posted no finishes inside the top 10 and only posted 2 top 15 finishes in the last 4 races. During those 4 races, he has compiled 19.5 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 71.0 driver rating. Let's take out his bad finish in 2017, where he finished 32nd: He has 15.3 average finish with 17.1 average running position and 68.9 driver rating. Notice how his ARP and DR dropped without the 2017's race? Because he was pretty good in that event. He held 10.2 average running position and 77.1 driver rating. You don't even need to know his APR's for that event to know that he was a pretty good performer as the driver rating should had a good indication. His driver rating's was near 80, despite finishing 6 laps down. If you finish off the lead lap and still post something like that, then you are doing alright.
#4-Kevin Harvick: You could make a very strong case that Harvick's best track is Atlanta. He has been stupid good with the #4 team and that shouldn't change anytime soon, either. In his last 4 races here, he has compiled the best-average finish (5.0) with best-average running position (2.9) and best-driver rating (133.2). Guys, those are some very scary numbers! On the high-speed intermediate tracks with tire wear, he was the best driver in 2019. In 5 races, he compiled 6.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. He ranked 1st, 1st and 2nd in those respected categories! Not bad, wouldn't you say?
#9-Chase Elliott: Eliott hasn't been bad at Atlanta over the last few seasons, but he was much better in his first two starts. In his last two races at Atlanta, he has compiled 14.5 average finish with 14.1 average running position and 73.1 driver rating. How does that compare to his first two starts? He posted 6.5 average finish with 7.1 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. He wasn't great on similar tracks in 2019, either. In 2019 on the 5 tracks, he compiled 15.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 82.9 driver rating. He didn't post a single top 10 finish in any of those races, if anybody was wondering.
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric started off 2019 pretty strong on the intermeridate tracks but boy did it go downhill after the All-star break! He did not record a single top 10 finish from ASR race through November on any intermeidate track. He had 16.8 average finish for those that keeping track at home. It not the fact, that he had that bad of average finish, but that fact that he barely knew that he was actually in the races. It's one thing to consistently have bad luck and finish poorly, but it's another to simply lack speed in general. He was usually a driver in the teens. I know, he isn't a top driver or anything. But I do expect a little more out of him, considering he drives for Stewart Haas Racing afterall.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has been kinda up and down over the last 5 Atlanta races, as he has collected just one top 10 finish in those 5 races. While 3 of those 5 races has ended in 16th or worse. In the past two seasons, he has shown more promise in the finish's department and with his on-track performance! In the last two races here, he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 7.9 average running position and 96.9 driver rating. Now those aren't great numbers, but they are easily in the ballpark. How did he do on these worn out intermeidate tracks in 2019? Exellent quesition! He wasn't bad, but I have some left to be desire. He posted 14.1 average finish with 9.6 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. Not horrible, but like I mention I have something left to be desire with him.
#12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney really doesn't have eye popping numbers, if you solely look at his average finish of 17.0 in two starts with the #12 team at Atlanta. But he was really good in last season's event and actually led 41 laps, before finishing 22nd. In those two races combined, he held 10.6 average running position and it should be better than that even. I think he could score his first career top 10 at this track this weekend and it's kinda suprising that he hasn't already. With that said, I think we forget how young he really is still!
#18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch wasn't really that great last season at Atlanta. He came from the back (if I remember right) and never really contended for a top 5 finish. He held 10.8 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. Those are very unlike Kyle Busch numbers, in my honest opinion. Over the past two races at Atlanta, he has compiled 6.5 average finish with 7.9 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. He was really good on these worn-out surfaces in 2019 though. He held 6.6 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 115.1 driver rating. He was ranked inside the top 2 in all three categories!
#19-Martin Truex Jr: I don't know why, but Truex Jr always get a bit disrespected compared to guys like Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick or even Joey Logano. He's fast every single week, but those guys sometimes seems to get a bit more spotlight. I am not saying he is being overlooked but sometimes I feel like he should be given a bit more praise. In his last 4 races at Altanta, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 112.6 driver rating. When compared to the competition, I would say that he has been the 3rd-best driver behind Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Pretty good company to be in!
#20-Erik Jones: Jones is an interesting fantasy option, as he has some good finishes in his first two races with the #20 team at Atlanta. He has finishes of 11th and 7th, but it seems like the JGR cars are lacking speed so far this season compared to last few seasons. I think as the season goes on, they will gain in that department and we will the results become better and better. Over the past two seasons at Atlanta, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 14.6 average running position in those two races. He also has ran pretty well on these worn out intermeidate tracks in 2019. He's posted 7.4 average finish and held 10.6 average running position with 94.4 driver rating.
#22-Joey Logano: Joey doesn't have eye popping numbers here at Atlanta like some other tracks, but I think he's sneaky underrated. In 3 of his last 5 races, he has finished either 4th or 6th. He finished 12th and 23rd in the two races that he didn't. Last season was his worst result during that 5-race span. But he also performed very well in that event and led 22 laps and finished inside the top 10 in the first two stages. What happened in the third stage? He was leading the race and then had a loose wheel. He gave up the lead and had to pit. Well, you see where this is going. He pitted and pretty much gave away the win to his teammate, Brad Keselowski!
#24-William Byron: The Hendrick cars are off to a faster start in 2020 than they were last year and that will need to be the case for William's sake as he hasn't been great at Atlanta. In two career starts at Atlanta, he has compiled 17.5 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 56.7 driver rating. Simply put that's not very good! He was a bit better on the worn out intermediate tracks in 2019 though, as he compiled 20.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position. I do believe that he will better this weekend than he was in his first two races at Atlanta!
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports are showing more speed this season (so far) than I thought they would heading into the season! So does that change my expecations for him in 2020? A little, if they can keep unloading fast racecars. With that said, I think expecting Johnson to win in 2020 will be a long shot . But I gotta believe that HMS will do everything in their power to give Johnson a great final season. And having faster racecar will be a great start! In the past two seasons at Atlanta, he has compiled 13.0 average finish with 11.1 average running position and 87.9 driver rating. His numbers are about what I expected them to be. I personally think he will be a top 10 guy at Atlanta, so yeah maybe slightly better than he has been over the last few seasons!
#88-Alex Bowman: Like Jimmie Johnson, we have seen more speed out of the No.88 car than we expected to this early in the season. I think we cannot be too suprised by good performances from the 88 car, though. As he started to come on very strong at end of last season on these intermediate tracks. He struggled at start of the season, but he started to roll after winning at Chicago. That happens to be another worn out intermediate track, which should be a great sign for this weekend's race! After the speed that he showed at Vegas, Cali, and Charlotte I am on the Bowman's bandwagon!
***All stats are from Driver Averages and Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt has been really good here at Atlanta over the past few seasons! In the past 4 seasons here at Atlanta, he has finished 8th or better in every single race. In 5 of his last 6 races here at Atlanta, he has actually finished 8th or better. During that 6-race span, he has only one finish outside of the top 10 and that was 13th in 2014. That was his first seson with SHR and he really struggled to adjust to his new team honestly that whole year. So I will give him a pass in 2014!
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has been on a roll here at Atlanta over past three races and hasn't finished worse than 2nd in that span! Last season on the high-speed interemediate with tire wear, he only once failed to finish inside the the top 5. The lone exceptation was at Homestead, where he finished 18th. In those 5 races, he compiled 6.4 average finish with 9.9 average running position and 101.4 driver rating. If you take out that Homstead's race, he held 3.5 average finish with 8.1 average running position (3rd-best) and 109.3 driver rating. He was really good at similar tracks in 2019!
#3-Austin Dillon: Dillon hasn't really posted any standout numbers here at Atlanta, as he has posted no finishes inside the top 10 and only posted 2 top 15 finishes in the last 4 races. During those 4 races, he has compiled 19.5 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 71.0 driver rating. Let's take out his bad finish in 2017, where he finished 32nd: He has 15.3 average finish with 17.1 average running position and 68.9 driver rating. Notice how his ARP and DR dropped without the 2017's race? Because he was pretty good in that event. He held 10.2 average running position and 77.1 driver rating. You don't even need to know his APR's for that event to know that he was a pretty good performer as the driver rating should had a good indication. His driver rating's was near 80, despite finishing 6 laps down. If you finish off the lead lap and still post something like that, then you are doing alright.
#4-Kevin Harvick: You could make a very strong case that Harvick's best track is Atlanta. He has been stupid good with the #4 team and that shouldn't change anytime soon, either. In his last 4 races here, he has compiled the best-average finish (5.0) with best-average running position (2.9) and best-driver rating (133.2). Guys, those are some very scary numbers! On the high-speed intermediate tracks with tire wear, he was the best driver in 2019. In 5 races, he compiled 6.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. He ranked 1st, 1st and 2nd in those respected categories! Not bad, wouldn't you say?
#9-Chase Elliott: Eliott hasn't been bad at Atlanta over the last few seasons, but he was much better in his first two starts. In his last two races at Atlanta, he has compiled 14.5 average finish with 14.1 average running position and 73.1 driver rating. How does that compare to his first two starts? He posted 6.5 average finish with 7.1 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. He wasn't great on similar tracks in 2019, either. In 2019 on the 5 tracks, he compiled 15.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 82.9 driver rating. He didn't post a single top 10 finish in any of those races, if anybody was wondering.
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric started off 2019 pretty strong on the intermeridate tracks but boy did it go downhill after the All-star break! He did not record a single top 10 finish from ASR race through November on any intermeidate track. He had 16.8 average finish for those that keeping track at home. It not the fact, that he had that bad of average finish, but that fact that he barely knew that he was actually in the races. It's one thing to consistently have bad luck and finish poorly, but it's another to simply lack speed in general. He was usually a driver in the teens. I know, he isn't a top driver or anything. But I do expect a little more out of him, considering he drives for Stewart Haas Racing afterall.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has been kinda up and down over the last 5 Atlanta races, as he has collected just one top 10 finish in those 5 races. While 3 of those 5 races has ended in 16th or worse. In the past two seasons, he has shown more promise in the finish's department and with his on-track performance! In the last two races here, he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 7.9 average running position and 96.9 driver rating. Now those aren't great numbers, but they are easily in the ballpark. How did he do on these worn out intermeidate tracks in 2019? Exellent quesition! He wasn't bad, but I have some left to be desire. He posted 14.1 average finish with 9.6 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. Not horrible, but like I mention I have something left to be desire with him.
#12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney really doesn't have eye popping numbers, if you solely look at his average finish of 17.0 in two starts with the #12 team at Atlanta. But he was really good in last season's event and actually led 41 laps, before finishing 22nd. In those two races combined, he held 10.6 average running position and it should be better than that even. I think he could score his first career top 10 at this track this weekend and it's kinda suprising that he hasn't already. With that said, I think we forget how young he really is still!
#18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch wasn't really that great last season at Atlanta. He came from the back (if I remember right) and never really contended for a top 5 finish. He held 10.8 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. Those are very unlike Kyle Busch numbers, in my honest opinion. Over the past two races at Atlanta, he has compiled 6.5 average finish with 7.9 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. He was really good on these worn-out surfaces in 2019 though. He held 6.6 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 115.1 driver rating. He was ranked inside the top 2 in all three categories!
#19-Martin Truex Jr: I don't know why, but Truex Jr always get a bit disrespected compared to guys like Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick or even Joey Logano. He's fast every single week, but those guys sometimes seems to get a bit more spotlight. I am not saying he is being overlooked but sometimes I feel like he should be given a bit more praise. In his last 4 races at Altanta, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 112.6 driver rating. When compared to the competition, I would say that he has been the 3rd-best driver behind Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Pretty good company to be in!
#20-Erik Jones: Jones is an interesting fantasy option, as he has some good finishes in his first two races with the #20 team at Atlanta. He has finishes of 11th and 7th, but it seems like the JGR cars are lacking speed so far this season compared to last few seasons. I think as the season goes on, they will gain in that department and we will the results become better and better. Over the past two seasons at Atlanta, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 14.6 average running position in those two races. He also has ran pretty well on these worn out intermeidate tracks in 2019. He's posted 7.4 average finish and held 10.6 average running position with 94.4 driver rating.
#22-Joey Logano: Joey doesn't have eye popping numbers here at Atlanta like some other tracks, but I think he's sneaky underrated. In 3 of his last 5 races, he has finished either 4th or 6th. He finished 12th and 23rd in the two races that he didn't. Last season was his worst result during that 5-race span. But he also performed very well in that event and led 22 laps and finished inside the top 10 in the first two stages. What happened in the third stage? He was leading the race and then had a loose wheel. He gave up the lead and had to pit. Well, you see where this is going. He pitted and pretty much gave away the win to his teammate, Brad Keselowski!
#24-William Byron: The Hendrick cars are off to a faster start in 2020 than they were last year and that will need to be the case for William's sake as he hasn't been great at Atlanta. In two career starts at Atlanta, he has compiled 17.5 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 56.7 driver rating. Simply put that's not very good! He was a bit better on the worn out intermediate tracks in 2019 though, as he compiled 20.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position. I do believe that he will better this weekend than he was in his first two races at Atlanta!
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports are showing more speed this season (so far) than I thought they would heading into the season! So does that change my expecations for him in 2020? A little, if they can keep unloading fast racecars. With that said, I think expecting Johnson to win in 2020 will be a long shot . But I gotta believe that HMS will do everything in their power to give Johnson a great final season. And having faster racecar will be a great start! In the past two seasons at Atlanta, he has compiled 13.0 average finish with 11.1 average running position and 87.9 driver rating. His numbers are about what I expected them to be. I personally think he will be a top 10 guy at Atlanta, so yeah maybe slightly better than he has been over the last few seasons!
#88-Alex Bowman: Like Jimmie Johnson, we have seen more speed out of the No.88 car than we expected to this early in the season. I think we cannot be too suprised by good performances from the 88 car, though. As he started to come on very strong at end of last season on these intermediate tracks. He struggled at start of the season, but he started to roll after winning at Chicago. That happens to be another worn out intermediate track, which should be a great sign for this weekend's race! After the speed that he showed at Vegas, Cali, and Charlotte I am on the Bowman's bandwagon!
***All stats are from Driver Averages and Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
