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Well folks, I am gonna give it a go and try to bring back a weekly Fantasy Nascar Preview. This was our most popular feature article from 2014 through 2018 when Jeff Nathans would write it up pretty regularly. I think the biggest reason that he stopped doing it was because it was very time consuming and was pointless to post if you didn't finish it until mid-week. Especially when there was no practice and qualifying. I am gonna try my very best to get it done by Monday afternoon/evening every week. But sometimes I will just skip a week, but I will do my best to give a heads up.
Auto Club is really the first real test of the season. We really don't have much to go on and we are kinda playing a guessing game here. Kinda like we did last season every week, but at least we had race data. I guess we could go back and look at the clash, but I wouldn't recommend doing that. This will be the final race held at the 2.0 mile track. So many good memories growing up watching races held at this track. Three memories will always stand to me. First would be Tony Stewart wanna to beat up Joey Logano after a race for blocking him. The second would be Joey Logano putting Denny Hamlin into the wall and knocking him out of action for several weeks. And the third would be the incredible run Kyle Larson had his rookie season and finishing 2nd. That was when we ALL knew Kyle Larson had arrived and frankly a lot of us knew he was legit before that race
Again this is gonna be a challenging race to pick for because we have no clue what to expect with this new car. However, I am gonna do my best breaking each driver down. So let's get started!
1-Ross Chastain: Ross went from racing for CGR the last few years to racing for Trackhouse in 2022. In case, you haven't been following the storylines. Trackhouse bought out CGR and tabbed Ross as their second driver to Daniel Suarez. It is really hard to judge how Ross will do this upcoming season. I would assume have similar results to 2021 though. He had some okay runs last season in the #42 car, but he never jumped off the page enough to contend for wins. He posted 3 top 5 and 8 top 10 finishes in 36 races. Not bad, but he also only finished on the lead lap 20 times. So 16 other races, he ended up finishing a lap down (or off the lead lap). Ross was just another guy riding around in 2021, can Trackhouse get him over that hump and contend more often in the top 10? This weekend at Auto Club might be telling how his season unfolds.
3-Austin Dillon: I was probably one of the few people that was actually high on RCR headed in 2021 and they made me look pretty good. Austin Dillon was a lot better than I expected though. He didn't win a race or make the playoffs. But he had his most complete season. Not career highs in anything, except his average finish. He had his highest average finish for a 36-race season at 14.4. His previous high was 15.8 in 2016. From there it was in the 16th-19th place range. I think my biggest issue with Dillon in his career has been consistency because that the only way he would offer value. And that no hate on Dillon, but he doesn't have the driving talent or equipment to have enough upside to challenge on weekly basis for wins and top 5s. So for him to put together a consistent season was a huge step in the right direction. Can he keep it going in 2022? Time will tell. He will likely be a top 10 to top 15 guy at Auto Club. He has had top 10 runs in the past. In 4 of his first career 6 races here, he finished either 10th or 11th. I started him the last race here (2020), he ran top 10 most of the day and was around 9th or 10th with a couple laps to go. A caution for Kyle Busch came out, then they had pit gun break on a pit stop. He finished 24th because of that. He is a very underrated here. Looking for a sneaky pick? Austin Dillon might be that cheap value guy!
4-Kevin Harvick: I am not super high on Kevin Harvick in 2022, if I am being honest. Or any of the Haas guys. I think they will again have their share of struggles. Harvick will be the best driver, so if Haas goes to victory lane it should be betted on Harvick. Auto Club is a good track for him. In 4 of his last 6 races here, he has finished in the top 9. Including 3 top 5 finishes. He finished 35th and 13th in other races. He obviously had issues in those races. In 2017, he had rough race. He got nose damage in early stages of the race that affected his handling for rest of the event. Not long after that damage, he also had a tire go down. He rebounded from all that and finished 13th. In 2018, he was top 5 good but him and Kyle Larson got into it. Harvick was the one that ended up with the major damage, though. I say Harvick will be good for a top 10 finish, but I don't know if I would be banking on anything beyond that.
5-Kyle Larson: Auto Club been a good track for Larson. He has always been good here and is clearly a stud on these fast tracks. If Hendrick is strong again on these intermediate tracks, then you should expect Kyle Larson to be one of the heavy favorites headed into the event. At Auto Club, he finished top 2 in 3 of his first 5 starts at this track. His last two races at Auto Club haven't been that good, though. He finished 12th in 2019 and 21st in 2020. I don't think CGR was that good overall in either of those races. I think CGR was down on speed early in 2019 and didn't get rolling until later in the season. In 2020, he only was able to race in the first 4 races. So it is hard to say how good Larson could had been overall. With that said, neither of those races really matter because he is driving for Hendrick and they are clearly a lot better than what CGR was when Larson was there. As for this weekend, I think Larson has to be viewed a top 5 guy with enough upside to win!
6-Brad Keselowski: I won't do a deep dive on Keselowski, but I don't think Keselowski will be very good this season or in the next few seasons. I think Keselowski is thinking more about his post-racing career than his actual racing career. Going to Roush will probably handicap him for the years to come because this team is in a bad way right now. They aren't very good and I doubt the addition of him will change them in a hurry. He might run a little better than Ryan Newman did, but I don't think it was a driver problem the last couple seasons. And based off what I saw at the Clash, I am not thrilled about what could be expected out of the No.6 team this upcoming season. If you are smart, I would avoid him until he shows us a reason to trust him. Keslowski is no longer the guy that drives for Penske and that should be alarming.
8-Tyler Reddick: I love watching Reddick drive a racecar because he can do things that other guys can't. He wasn't as consistent as Austin Dillon, but I am glad he isn't because I don't think he would sniff wins. He might from time to time, if he drove more like Austin Dillon. But I think Reddick driving style gives him a shot at wins more often. Reddick has a lot of Kyle Larson in him. Like Larson, he started his career for a lesser team. RCR will likely only take him so far and the rest is on his shoulders. We saw last season that he is capable of running in the top 5 at his best tracks. Not just run top 5, but challenge for wins. I also think that what get him in trouble. Reddick sometimes will overdrive his equipment and that usually when get into some hot water. Auto Club is one of those tracks that I think he have a great run at. If RCR has the speed, I think Reddick is a great dark horse pick for 2022!
9-Chase Elliott: Elliott had an awesome 2021 season, but he was overlooked sometimes because how good his teammate was. Larson was the star, but Elliott was no bum, though. Elliott won 2 times and finished in the top 5 a total of 15 times. Really, he was just as good in 2021 as he was his championship season in 2020. His wins dropped from 5 to 2. But his top 5 dropped from 22 to only 21, his top 10 went from 22 to 21. He did, however, improve his average finish from 11.7 to 11.4. He did have a great season, but it just wasn't his season in 2021. I think Auto Club 2016 was when I knew Elliott could be that guy one day. We all knew he was really good in the lower series. I was watching Auto Club in 2016 and I was watching the lap times. I started to watch the lap times and this rookie in the #24 car just kept clicking off smooth lap after smooth lap. Then I started to watch him in the race this kid is running top 10 and he is doing it effortlessly, too. He reminded me of Kyle Larson, who came on the cup scene a few seasons prior. Guys like that are a rare breed because not every rookie has IT, but you know the guys that do. So what to expect from him this weekend? A lot like Larson, he should be top 5 good, if Hendrick is fast again on these intermediate tracks in 2022.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was great in 2021 and he probably was the 2nd-best driver for the season. I think he was more consistent than Larson for the first 18 races, but Larson went on a tear where it didn't matter. Larson was obviously quicker more often, but Hamlin just didn't have many bad races. I think that what gave him the point lead for most of the regular season. Auto Club really haven't been a great place for him, but Gibbs should have a horsepower advantage over a lot of the competition. I think Hamlin is a very decent fantasy option for this weekend, but I don't love him. Especially when I look at other drivers in his range. If he can deliver a top 3-4 finish, then yeah I take him. But is he is capable of winning? I don't know. There are so many questions headed into this weekend race. We really have no clue what this new car will truly bring
12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney had a nice 2021 season, but like always he was inconsistent. That is my thing with Blaney, he is too inconsistent to be considered a reliable fantasy option on a weekly basis. He is very good equipment, so he is worth considering on a weekly basis. But he shouldn't be on your radar in Daily Fantasy games, though. His price tag probably won't be worth the risk that comes with him. In season long games, I might take a shot with him at his best tracks. That if, Penske is on par with the competition in the speed department. I think that will be key. We saw these Penske Fords fall off as the season went on in 2021. They were top 10 good most weeks, but we didn't challenge for wins too often as the season progressed. He has been good at Auto Club in his career, though. He has finishes of 8th and 9th in 2018 and 2019. Then in 2020, he led 54 laps on finished in the top 2 in stage 1 and 2. However, he ended up 19th for that event. He did post a strong 112.1 driver rating for that event. Red flags should be going off because that 19th place finish was misleading clearly. He should had been a top 5 finisher for that event. What will he do in 2022 for this event?
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is one of those drivers that I expect to be even stronger in 2022 than he was in 2021. He was pretty damn good in 2021, too. He finished 9th in the points, but we all know he was one of the fastest drivers in the field pretty often. Bad finishes did him in the playoffs, but I think he also had struggles during the regular season where he lost valuable playoffs points because his team missed the setup too often. The lack of practice killed him more than a lot of other teams it seemed. I think he is one of those guys that will be hugely benefit from having practice and qualifying once again in 2022. Auto Club is a great track for him. He is easily one of the best drivers in the field at this 2.0 mile track. In 7 of his last 9 races at this track, he has finished in the top 3. That is just dumb! Guys, he is simply a machine at this 2.0 mile layout. Kyle Busch should be on the short-list of favorites to win this weekend!
19-Martin Truex Jr: Truex won 4 times in 2021, but he kinda was an afterthought most weeks. He was at his best on the short tracks, but he also had some very good runs on the intermediate tracks and large ovals (like Michigan), though. However, he never really challenged for any wins. Okay runs, but I never got the ''he gonna win'' vibes from him. Perhaps, he also missed practice and qualifying more than we thought? I don't think anyone ever mentioned this about him, but I think the Gibbs cars (minus Hamlin) really missed practice and qualifying. So it will be interesting, if they will improve in 2022. Auto Club isn't a very good track for Truex. So if I would personally try to avoid him until we can see him on the track. If he doesn't look legit top 3 then I say save him for another day. Especially since he will have a heavy price tag in Daily Fantasy games.
20-Christopher Bell: Bell is an interesting guy for sure! He was great at Daytona road course in 2021 and won, but he was a major disappointment after that. He only posted 6 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes in the next 34 races. Not terrible, but not great for a driver in Gibbs equipment. When looking at Bell finishes in the No.20 car last season, I see a lot of inconsistency in him. His 15.8 average finish would certainly back that up as well. He had some good runs on intermediate tracks, but he again struggled to be consistent. I have always said consistency brings a lot of value. Bell has the right equipment to be a great driver, but it does nothing if you can't consistently finish in the top 10. Heck, I take low teen finishes, if it came down to it. For Bell, I would probably play the wait and see approach. If he is up and down to start the season, I would avoid him. If he can start the season with some consistent finishes, then take a shot with him in a month or so from now.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a pretty good 2021, but I felt like he was one of the drivers that certainly fell off as the season went on. Which was pretty common among the Penske cars in 2021. They just didn't have the speed to mix it up on a weekly basis with the Hendrick and Gibbs cars. Will 2022 be any difference? Well Logano got things off to a very good start with winning the Clash. How much will that mean going forward? Probably nothing, but it also could mean something. Translation? We have no freaking idea. I feel like Penske is still one of the better teams in Nascar and they should be viewed like that headed into the season. My question is will Ford be down as a whole still? It is concerning if they are. Personally, I would wait to see practice and qualifying this weekend, before making a call on Logano
23-Bubba Wallace Jr: I know many people are expecting a jump from Bubba, but those people also probably have some kind of biased agenda, though. Reality about Bubba is, he is exactly the driver that he showed us in 2021. He is that big name guy that is too inconsistent to trust most weekends and a top 15 is typically his ceiling. You may not like it, but that who Bubba likely will be once again in 2022. Personally, I wouldn't be too high on him on intermediate tracks, either. I can count the number of times that he finished in the top 15 in 2021 on any type of intermediate track with one hand. You can find better options than Bubba this weekend, I think!
24-William Byron: If I had a dark horse pick in 2022, then Byron would be my guy. We all knew how talented he was coming into cup. It took him a few years, but he seemed to finally starting to arrive at times in 2020. I thought he put the rest together in 2021. He was really good and looked like one of the top drivers in the sport, when he had the right car under him. He only won once, but he also posted 11 other top 5s and 19 top 10 finishes. His average finish of 13.6 marked a career-best through 4 seasons. He also posted career bests in top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, average starts and laps led. Yeah, I would say he had a pretty good damn year. I think he is trending in the right direction, but put of that will be weather or not that Hendrick stays strong as they are. I would use William at any intermediate track! It is clear that he has speed advantage over a lot drivers. He also was a lot more inconsistent at other type of track. My plan would to have William on your radar this weekend and go from there.
43-Erik Jones: Erik was clearly gonna take a downstick in production, but it was a major step back and that didn't surprised me at all. In fact, I was more surprised how well he actually did overall. He ended up with 6 top 10 finishes and 19.7 average finish. In comparison to the last driver (Darrell Wallace Jr), he topped every season by Bubba. In fact, he almost matched him in top 10 finishes (total) in 1/3 of the starts. In fact, they had similar stats, even with Bubba being in a better ride. Both had 19.67 average finish, but Erik had the Top 10 advantage 6 to 3. While Bubba held the win (1 to 0) and top 5 finishes (3 to 0) over Erik. Guess my point is? Erik was still able to strive in less equipment, which speaks about the kind of talent that he is still. I think Erik will be capable on these intermediate tracks, but I think I would play the wait and see approach with him most weekends until we see practice and have some race data.
45-Kurt Busch: Kurt has been with CGR the last couple seasons, but parted ways after Chip decided to step away and sell the team to Trackhouse Racing. Kurt ended up going to 23XI as a second driver. This is a pretty new team, so I do have concerns and Kurt is getting older. It hasn't stopped him from being a quality driver in recent years, though. I really not sure what to expect out of Kurt in 2022. I think he has a chance to be the lead driver at 23XI, if he is given the right cars. He is a former champion and a proven winner, so he will have a shot to make an impact on that new organization overall. It is hard for me to guess what to expect from him, but I would say he will be a low teen driver with upside to challenge for a top 10 finish at Auto Club. This is an awesome track for him overall. He has been awesome in the past here, so I would keep tabs on him this weekend and see how he does as the weekend progresses.
48-Alex Bowman: Bowman was probably the weakest link at HMS when I think back the season overall. Not from the win department, but pretty much from every other major stat category, though. He had less top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, average finish, average start and lap led than each of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron. You didn't need stats to tell that Alex Bowman was usually the slowest of the 4 HMS drivers. He did win 4 races, though. Bowman is in good enough equipment to be considered for a top 10 finish, but he is good enough driver to consistently finish in the top 10, though. And that is the real difference in him and other three drivers at HMS. Unless he looks top 10 good in practice and qualifying, I would probably avoid him until we have some races under belts to make some observations
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
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