2023 Fantasy Nascar DFS Targets and Fades (Cali)

 Welcome to Timerssports

If you play DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) games like FanDuel or DraftKings, then this is probably the article you are looking for as I will breakdown each week the drivers that I will be targeting and staying away from. It will make things more challenging this weekend as there was no practice and qualifying. I think it will be easier to get some value from some good drivers starting deep in the field and should move forward. With that said, there are some good drivers in the mid-price range that would be good options normally. However, if they are starting further up then their value goes down. Regardless, we have some nice plays for the weekend! Let's dig into targets and fades!

Targets - 

Chase Elliott - While I am not super high on Elliott as a possible race winning contender, I think he will be a great addition in DFS games as he is probably one of the best top drivers to start outside of the top 30. With that said, everybody and their mother will have him in their lineups this weekend. 

Kyle Larson - Larson will undoubtedly be one of the highest priced drivers this weekend at Cali, as he should with being the race defending winner. He is also starting 15th and should move up to the front and contend for the win. Larson is easily one of the most talented drivers in the field and ended 2022 very strong. I am very high on him for 2023 and I think he will contend for a lot of race wins, too. 

Kyle Busch - Much like Kyle Larson, I think Kyle Busch will be very strong in 2023. He will start outside of the top 20 and much like the other target drivers, he will start deeper in the field. In 23 races at Cali, he has produced 16 Top 10 finishes. So the chances are he will finish in the top 10 again this weekend. When we pick drivers that start deeper in the field, we need them to finish in the top 10 at least. I think Busch have enough upside to do that and possibly much more. Don't over think this!

Fades - 

Kevin Harvick - I think Harvick will finish just a few spots higher or lower than his starting position and that's a problem to me. To be a great DFS option, you must either gain a lot of positions or start up front and dominate. I don't think Harvick gonna challenge for a win and he starts too far up to be a good candidate to gain bunch of spots. Harvick is a easy candidate to avoid for me!

Alex Bowman - Some people might be on the Bowman wagon this weekend based on him domianting in 2020 here, but that's 3 seasons ago and he hasn't proven that he can consistently go out and lead laps at any given track. Bowman will start 4th and will likely head in the opposite direction. I say he might be able to hang around in back half of the top 10, but he is probably from there to a mid-teen driver. I don't buy into the hype with guy, I might if this was one of his teammates, though. 

Ryan Blaney - Blaney has 3 traits as a driver (in my opinion) and has consistently displayed these traits time and time again. The first would be the ability to consistently inconsistent. If you played Fantasy Nascar enough, I am sure you have been burned number of times by him. His second trait would be being the most unlucky driver in the sport. And the 3rd would be a weekly race contender to only be fool gold by end of the race. They all kinda go hand and hand. I don't trust Blaney and frankly he starts too far up to be a strong DFS play anyways. Even if he didn't have those concerns, I would probably stay away because he kinda in DFS hell starting 9th. Doesn't really start up front, but not far enough back to have the PD value, either. 

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Analysis Breakdown (Cali)

 Welcome to Timerssports

We are back at it this weekend with some racing, but sadly it gonna be more challenging than we would like for us fantasy players. As both practice and qualifying has been cancelled, which means we are headed into Sunday's race pretty much blindfolded. We can take a guess on who will be strong and probably have a decent shot at being right based on 2022 results. But it will come with a little risk, but anything is a risk on any given race weekend. But we will solider on and try our best with the hand that we have been dealt with! As you can guess the point of this article is to breakdown the competition this weekend and it will basically be the Fantasy Nascar Update (one of our most popular posts for years) with just a different name to it! 

Let's get rolling!

1. Joey Logano - Logano was in my top 3 headed into the weekend and it is hard to not put him at No.1, though. He was probably 2nd headed into the week for me (with Larson being No.1) and he will start a dozen spots higher than the 5. Logano has everything you could ask for in a fantasy pick, honestly. He's coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona, he was really good on intermediate tracks in 2022 and has a solid history of finishing up front at Cali. Not to mention, he's the defending cup champion for a reason! When you combine his equipment, starting position and other numbers, I think you gotta put him as the odds on favorite to win on Sunday afternoon! 

2. Kyle Larson - Larson is a great option this weekend and was in my view the odds on favorite headed into the weekend. He will start 15th and that kinda hurt him a little, but it don't mean he cant go up front and lead a lot of laps. Larson was extremely strong at end the season in 2022 on these intermediate tracks. Larson is a former winner here at Cali and is actually the defending race winner here, too. Larson is very capable of getting to the front and being one of the heavy favorites to win on Sunday! He might be the best play this weekend in DFS games, as he offers winning upside and some differential points. However, he will cost you top dollar money, no question! He will be worth it, though! 

3. Martin Truex Jr - I am a lot higher on Truex Jr than most people probably are and I think he gonna be a contender here at Cali! I think in general, he is a great fantasy pick and won't cost quite as much in DFS games as the two mentioned above (I haven't looked at prices though). Truex Jr should have plenty of motivation this weekend and I loved what I saw from him a few weeks ago out in LA. Let's see if that speed will translate to the 2-mile fast track! 

4. Kyle Busch - Busch is starting outside of the top 20, but I think he will be one of the guys at the front before it is over! He has been amazing here in his cup career. In 23 starts, he has produced 11 top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes. He seems to show up here with a very fast car almost every time and overall RCR isn't a real downgrade to me. They were fast last season with Reddick and I think that gonna be the same deal this weekend (and this season) with the new driver of the No.8 car

5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been great at 2-mile tracks over the past couple seasons, as he has compiled 6.2 average finish at these large intermediate tracks since 2020. He also was pretty strong on intermediate tracks in general in 2022. I don't think Hamlin is getting the love that he should this weekend as there are so many interesting top options to pick from. He is someone with top 10 floor and top 5 (and more) upside. He is very capable to challenge for a top 5 finish and I be shocked if he wasn't up front at some point in the race! 

6. Chase Elliott - I am honestly not super high on Elliott this weekend for whatever reason and I really don't know why besides starting very deep in the field. He has all the intangibles to be a top tier fantasy pick and will most likely be a top 10 finisher, if not more. He will probably be a very good DFS pick, but in generally I think he won't get to be anything more than a top 10 driver. He might challenge for a top 5, but my gut tells me no that he won't

7. Ross Chastain - I could probably put Ross higher on this list as I think he will have the speed to jump a couple of these guys. But if we learned anything about Mr. Chastain in 2022, then it is he's a true wildcard on the racetrack. Now, if I was certain that he had top 3 speed, then I would probably put him closer to that top 3. But with no practice or qualifying, I really don't know if I can totally trust him. So he is a little lower on my list than he would if he actually had cars on the track this weekend!

8. Christopher Bell - Bell is starting on the pole, but I don't think he is a very good DFS pick as he will likely fall from the race lead and only be a top 10 driver. At times in 2022, he showed off top 5 speed. However, if you use him in DFS, then you will need him to lead laps and finish in the top 3. I don't think he leads a chunk of the laps or finishes in the top 3. Again, there is no data for us to look at, but history says he will be a top 10 finisher. However, he will probably not be a race winning contender

9. William Byron - Willy B is one of the most interesting drivers over the past two seasons. He had a better 2021 season (than 2022), but the eye test says he was better in 2022. He did get more wins and finish higher in points in 2022. However, he was overall more consistent and had more top 5 (and top 10) finishes in 2021. Still, he was pretty good in both seasons and was really good on these intermediate tracks both seasons. He contended for wins a few times in 2022, too. It is hard to say if he will be capable of that this weekend, but I say he is at least in for a top 10 run on Sunday. Willy is a talented dude, so I say he upside to contend for a top 5. But as low as I got him, I personally don't believe that is likely for the No.24 car on Sunday. 

10. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is a very interesting play this weekend, as he is making his 750th start. I think Harvick was okay last season, but SHR was down on speed in 2022 overall. So it will be interesting to see if those cars are back to par with the competition. I think in general, Harvick performance was down more a few of his teammates. We expect such a high standard from him with his time at SHR, and at times he was the 2nd or 3rd best SHR driver. I really want Harvick to be a viable fantasy option this season. I just don't know if we will see that same guy that can contend for wins, we might have to go back to settling for just top 10 finishes out of him. I kinda get the feeling that what we will be seeing out of Kevin Harvick

Just missed - 

Ryan Blaney

Austin Dillon

Daniel Suarez

Tyler Reddick

 Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers and Dark Horses (Cali)

Welcome to Timerssports 

 My friends this is the article that will make or break your fantasy lineup. Anyone can pick the studs, but finding that value is your fantasy nascar lineup is the key. But before we get to the fun stuff, it is time for my yearly rant about people misusing these terms. Make no mistake, both ''sleepers'' and ''dark horses'' certainly have similarities, but they aren't always interchangeable. Dark horse are drivers that could possibly challenge for a win, but we don't expect them to. Think of someone like Tyler Reddick the past couple seasons. We knew he had the talent, but we didn't expect him to win or challenge for the win. That's a perfect dark horse candidate. Sleeper? Well typecially we are speaking more in ''value'' than the overall potential. That value will change throughout the season, too. Michael McDowell is a great example of being a sleeper pick. He usually held that value because the market would always undervalue him which made him a great sleeper pick at back-end of your fantasy lineup. See the difference? 

Sleepers - 

Chase Briscoe - Briscoe is an interesting option this weekend. He ended 2022 season with 2 top 5 finishes in his final 3 races on intermediate tracks. He was a major plus for someone like him that was pretty inconsistent for the most part. He certainly had his moments and some of those moments came on the intermediate tracks, too. He posted 3 of his 6 top 5 finishes at Charlotte, Las Vegas and Texas. He also had top 16 runs at Atlanta (twice), Kansas and Dover. Starting to see why I am probably higher than most on him? He also finished 16th at Cali last season and led 20 laps. There will be a market for Chase Briscoe on these intermediate tracks because he will be undervalue. Now, some weeks there will be less value than others, but he is one driver to keep an eye a nice sleeper play to sneak into your lineup! 

Austin Dillon - You could put him more as a dark horse pick, but I don't really view him that way yet because he really hasn't proven that he can hang more towards the front as oppose to the teens where he will likely be more times than not. With Dillon, you have to use him where he is a strength. He loves these fast tracks, more specifically he love these big fast tracks like Cali and Michigan. I remember back at Michigan in 2016, I was listening to the radio and they had a interview with him confessing his love for big fast tracks. Cali fits the type and he was a top 15 performer in 2022! In 2022 at Cali, he finished 2nd here at Cali. He finished 13th at Michigan. With the addition of Kyle Busch, I think Austin Dillon and RCR can get to that next level. At some point this season, we might be viewing him as a dark horse. He is really good here at Cali, too. If you are looking to sneak a fantasy pick into your lineup that has a high floor and high ceiling, but probably be overlooked a little? Austin Dillon just might be your secret weapon this weekend

Dark Horses - 

William Byron - I been a big believer in Willy B the last couple seasons and I honestly thought from the eye test that he had his best season in his cup career. But his overall numbers were a little better in 2021. Of course, he went 13 straight races (from Homestead to Charlotte) in 2021 with top 11 finishes. Then added a few more top 5 finishes in the month of June before falling off a little in 2021. He ended the year pretty strong, though. As he posted 4 Top 11 finishes in the final 5 races. In 2022, he was also very strong. He had less top 5s, top 10s, etc and a weaker average finish. However, he also led more laps and posted more wins. Also two wins in first 10 races, he fell off again middle portion of the season. But he was stronger to end the season, though. As he finished in the top 13 in the final 9 of 10 races. Like his teammates, Willy B will have advantage of some of his competitors at these fast tracks. 

Erik Jones - He wouldn't been someone that I put as a dark horse a year ago, but he was great last season with the No.43 car! Simply amazing and beat any expectations that I had for him and that team. We all knew that Erik was a talented dude and that was clear way back before he even got to cup. I think it took him leaving JGR for us to realize that this guy is waaaaay more talented than we remember. And that is no shot at Erik because anyone can drive a top tier car to the front, it takes someone special to do it with something less. He won at Darlington, that was the standout race for him. But he was strong on these intermediate and I make a case it was the strength of this time. He was a top 15 performer often, but it wasn't until 2nd half of the season, where we are going like, ''okay this team is onto something''. He won at Darlington, then followed it with some top 10 runs at Las Vegas and Texas. Prior to his win at Darlington, he also a 8th place run at Michigan in August and a top 10 run at Atlanta. What makes me super excited about him this weekend? His 3rd place showing last year at this track. He was super competitive in that race and held a stout driver rating throughout the event. He also finished 8th at it's sister track at Michigan! I wouldn't bet against him getting another top 10 finish this weekend and possibly more! 

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Cali)

 Welcome to Timerssports

Last week, I simply made a post on drivers I liked and didn't like very much which isn't typically how I make my fantasy picks article overall. I usually post my fantasy picks from games that I play. But I work night shift and I haven't really looked at my lineups yet at time of posting of the article. So I just did my research and picked 8 drivers to write on. That will not be the case this week for Cali. I will make picks for the Driver Group Game (my personal favorite game) and Draft Kings lineup as well. Those are probably the only games I am playing this year. In other articles this weekend, I will breakdown drivers that I would be targeting and fading. I hope to add a few other articles to the site this weekend, too. This gonna be a big weekend for Timerssports. As for this post, I will likely just add the Driver Group Game (DGG) picks for now and come back on Sunday morning and add the DK lineup picks to this post. It's exciting times as we are ''really'' about to kick things into high gear for the 2023 season! 

DGG Picks: 

A - 

Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson 

Reasons - It's a new season, so I can't really say how to attack the new upcoming season on the first intermediate track. Hamlin has posted 6.3 average finish over his last 6 races on 2-mile tracks, so for now he is in my lineup. Kyle Larson is swinging 50% in his career for finishing in the top 5 at Cali and won this race a year ago. They didn't race here in 2021 and CGR was down on speed when they visited in 2019 and 2020. I don't think Larson and 5 car actually figured their car out until 2nd half of the race in 2022 when they won. If that 5 car unloads fast, I think the field should be very concerned. This is a very-like Kyle Larson track. 

B:

Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Austin Dillon and Erik Jones 

Reasons - This is a crazy loaded tier where I am not concerned at all about picks. This tier has the 2,3,4,8,19,23,42,45,48 and list goes on. There are enough choices in this tier that it should not be a major concern like the C-list tier. With that said, I had 4 guys at first that I will use 7-9 times. But after doing a little thinking, I changed my selection up a little. I am still going with Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Now for whatever reason that one of them look off in practice/qualifying, then I got two backup plans that should be a nice start-save option. Austin Dillon loves these big fast tracks and performed well at them in 2022. Erik Jones was very good at these type of track and finished 3rd here in 2022. Thinking outside of the box a little for this first race. 

C: 

AJ Dinger and Ryan Preece 

Reasons - This is interesting tier as we need 4 drivers to use 9 starts apiece from. Personally I will use 3 in this tier (Gibbs, Dinger and Preece or Gragson) most likely and get 9 starts elsewhere at Daytona, Talladega, road courses,etc. So my plan this weekend is to roll with Dinger and pair him with someone that could possibly get a start-save with. Preece is no bum. I believe Gibbs is top choice in this tier, then it goes probably Dinger then there a gap to Gragson and Preece. I think that gap could be a lot smaller than we think, though. 

Draft Kings Picks - TBD

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Daytona 500)

Welcome to Timerssports

About 10 years ago to the date (maybe a little more or less), I was preparing content for the 2013 season and the 2013 Daytona 500! That was believe it or not a full decade ago! It's really crazy how fast times fly by, but here we are entering the 2023 season. I am very disappointed in myself for not being able to produce much content the last few years, but I really hope to be better on that in 2023! I think what makes this website so popular is my content will always be free to my loyal readers. Now, that isn't a shot at any sites out that charges their readers for their content, as there are some amazing Fantasy Nascar website out there and I would recommend checking some of them out. But to me, that what always been an appealing factor to people. The fire content on here certainly helps out as well!

Onto to more important issues, though. Such as today's picks for the Daytona 500! I really debated if I were gonna post any content this weekend because Daytona and Talladega are such crapshoot! But with working night shift and having to be awake, I figured why not! With that being said, anyone says they know what gonna happen is lying to you. So how do we go about making picks? We look at past data and trends like we do at any other track. While the race will be unpredictable, there are certain drivers that run well enough consistently to avoid bad luck! We are gonna need some good luck today, but it never hurt to select a few drivers that know how to race these kind of races. That should be the plan for today for success! Folks, we grab some coffee (or beer in my case) and let's roll into 2023 season! 

5 drivers to target: 

Austin Cindric - Folks, he's a freaking stud here at Daytona! It don't matter the series, he has a knack for running well at places like this and trust me it's a talent. Some guys are really good in the draft and Austin qualifies as one of them. In his short sample cup career, he has 6.3 average finish at Daytona with 2 Top 5 (1 win - last year Daytona 500) finishes already. Since 2020, he also holds the best driver rating of 93.4 at Daytona. In 5 career starts at Daytona and Talladega, he has produced 3 top 10 finishes and 5 top 21 finishes. In 3 starts at Daytona, he has finishes of 1st, 3rd and 15th. 

Ryan Blaney - Blaney is one of those guys that will make or break your lineups most likely! He will likely finish in the top 10 or wreck out. Almost every time we come to Daytona or Talladega, that what it seems like we are getting from him. In his last 12 starts on superspeedway tracks, he has produced an 10.1 average finish with 7 top 10 finishes. That is the highest average finish and most top 10 finishes among drivers whom started every race since 2020. 

Bubba Wallace Jr - Bubba Wallace has a knack for running up front at these races and while he don't always finish in the top 5, he also has a knack for having a safe floor as well. As fantasy players, we LOVE that. In his last 12 races at Daytona and Talladega, he has compiled a whopping 11(!) Top 20 finishes with 4 of them ending in the top 5. So he isn't always finishing up front, but he probably won't kill your fantasy lineup either, though. 

Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon always has loved Daytona, I don't know what it is about this place that brings out the best in him. He won here last August, but he has a history of being really good at the Daytona 500 from a consistency standpoint overall. He finished 25th in last season's Daytona 500 and that is his worst career finish at this event (since being in the #3 car). In 2014, he finished 9th. After that? 14th, 9th, 19th, 1st, 16th, 12th and 17th. So even when he doesn't finish up in the top 10, he is still giving you some consistency with his incredible high upside

Chase Elliott - Elliott been hit or miss in his career on superspeedways, but at Daytona it been a hit lately. In 4 of his last 5 races here at Daytona, he has compiled top 10 finishes. He is a great drafter and usually we will find him at the front. I think the downside to picking Elliott is almost everyone will be picking him as he is one of the most popular picks this weekend. With that said, if he wrecks then you are pretty safe as everyone else will go down as well. There is not much to really hate about Elliott this weekend. If you are in a limited start league, then I might pass on him, though as he holds more value in next 35 races. 

3 drivers I would avoid: 

Denny Hamlin - I am sure Hamlin will be a popular pick this weekend, but I am here to tell you that Hamlin is a great drafter and went on an amazing run for 3-4 years at these type of tracks, but lately it hasn't been a fun time with Hamlin. In 5 of his last 7 races, he has finished 13th or worse. In 4 of those races, he has finished 18th or worse. In that same span, he has only produced one top 5 finish. Over Denny's last 3 Daytona races in that span, he has finishes of 13th, 25th and 37th. He is an amazing talent and I think he is capable of winning this event, but personally I might just back off him this weekend with his recent trend of bad luck at these events

Brad Keselowski - Another big name driver that has kinda stunk up the stats sheets (terms of final finishes) and while final finishes isn't everything. It is something, as certain drivers has a knack for finding bad luck. Brad Keselowski is one of the most aggressive drivers in the series and that is a big problem because he is too aggressive sometimes. Would it surprise you that Brad only has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 20 races at either Daytona or Talladega? In 4 of his last 6 races overall has ended in 23rd or worse. In his last 7 races at Daytona, he has produced 4 finishes of 35th or worse. Not saying we will see Brad be in a big wreck, but the numbers say it is likely!

Joey Logano - Logano find himself in the thick of things very often, but he also find himself not finishing these events because he pushes the issues far too often. Need proof? In 11 of his last 12 races at superspeedway races, he has failed to finish in the top 10. He has just one top 10 finish and that was a 3rd at Talladega a few years ago. Going back to Daytona 2018, Joey has finished outside of the top 10 in 8 of 9 races. While 5 of those 9 races ended outside of the top 20 as well. There are better options this weekend!

Hopefully my thoughts are helpful with your picks today! Best of luck everyone!

Thanks for reading, 

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12