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After back to back crazy races at Daytona and Sonoma, we now head to one of the newest races on the schedule at Kenetucky Speedway. Nascar will debut their new race package this weekend. Personally I am not sure this is the best place to display the new package. Kentucky is a difficult place to make passes at, so I am not sure how effective it will be. Especially since Nascar is trying to make for more passing. Even though I understand why it make sense to deploy it here too.
From a fantasy vantage point, I am very interested how Wednesday's testing will turn out. Mainly because it pretty much a cheat sheet on who could potentially be fast come Sunday. Honestly I am not too sure what to expect from it. However I do believe a lot of the same guys will still be able to run up front like they have all season.
If you wanting to look at season data, then you should probably study the 1.5 milers racetracks. Kentucky is much more bumpier than any track that we have visited, but Kansas is probably the most similar (shape wise). However Kentucky racing surface is far older than Kansas.
Here is today preview for Kentucky:
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is having a career season! He keep on knocking off top 15 finishes and that is called consistency. Something I have never used to described JMac. However he just been that damn good this season. He is like the Ryan Newman of 2014. He been pretty decent on the 1.5 mile cookie cutters in 2015 too. In 4 races (Minus the Atlanta wreck), he have compiled 12.3 average finish, 12.8 average start, 14.5 average running position, 9 laps led and 83.4 driver rating. In terms of scoring, he have scored the 12th most fantasy points in those 4 races with 3 Top 15 finishes. However he also only have one top 10 finish. Jamie doesn't have a impressive Kentucky record, but there only have been 4 races held in Cup. So I will give him a pass on that. Overall he should make a fine top 15 fantasy option.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski absolutely dominated last season's event on his way to his first career Cup win at Kentucky. He was in another zip code in that race, however in 2015 he have struggled to finish inside the top 5. So far this season, he have only 3 top 5 finishes which is pretty low considering he had multiple wins already by this time last season. This season on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he have compiled 7.0 average finish , 7.0 average start, 8.4 average running position, 84 laps led and 107.4 driver rating. While those are some impressive numbers across the board, he have only 1 Top 5 finish. That becomes a problem since most formats depends heavily the finishing order. Since he is unlikely to grab a top 5, so his value will decrease which makes him less attractive fantasy option. Even though his track record at Kentucky is pretty darn impressive. In 4 races, he have held 10.5 average finish with 2 Top 5s and 3 Top 10 finishes in those races. He only really had one bad race here on the Cup side. He should be a solid option to roll with.
3-Austin Dillion: Dillon have not progressed like most would have liked, but he is starting to show potential at the Cup level. However he is still probably few seasons away from being relevant in fantasy land. Big reasons are he isn't consistent enough with favorable upside. He have the consistency down, but still need to developed as a racer. There isn't a lot you can say about Dillon regarding fantasy value. He been pretty average this season on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Especially with 23.4 average finish, 18.6 average start, 22.6 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. Those aren't stats that are exactly what I want in a fantasy pick. Even though he have shown promise by looking back at Kansas and Charlotte races.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been the man to beat on the 1.5 mile racetracks. While he only have win in 5 races, he have the best stats in the entire sport. In 5 races on the 1.5 mile racetracks, Harvick have compiled 3.2 average finish , 7.2 average start, 3.8 average running position, 433 laps led and 129.8 driver rating. Those are unbelievable stats! 4 of those races he finished either 1st or 2nd. He also had a top 5 car at Charlotte, but late pit strategy cost him great finish. He also support a solid track record at Kentucky too. In 4 races, he have held an average finish of 11.0 average finish with 2 top 10s and 4 Top 20s. In those 4 races his lowest finish have been 16th. However he haven't finished any higher than 7th.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is coming off a poor effort at Daytona, but I have feeling he is due for a great finish at Kentucky. He been solid this season on the 1.5 mile racetrack which makes him a very useable fantasy option in my opinion. In 5 races on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he have compiled 13.6 average finish, 10.4 average start, 9.4 average running position, 6 laps led and 100.1 driver rating. Thinking back to Las Vegas and Kansas, Kahne easily had a top 10 car most of those races. However late race drama caused him to finish 17th in both races. Same thing with Charlotte. So not like he doesn't run well, but he never seem to get the right finishes.On the plus side, Kahne have found some success at Kentucky so far. In 4 races, he have had an 8.5 average finish with 2 Top 10s and 4 Top 13s. In fact, he finished 11th or better in 3 races since joining HMS.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off a bad race at Daytona. I wasn't very high on her in the first place at Daytona anyhow. However I do like Patrick a lot at Kentucky though. She have been decent this season on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season. In 5 races, she have compiled an 21.6 average finish, 21.4 average start, 22.6 average running position and 63.7 driver rating. Kinda interesting how she have finished this season on the 1.5 milers. She have finished 16th , 22nd or 27th in all 5 races. With 3 of those 5 races ending either 22nd or 27th. At Kansas earlier this season , she finished 27th. If I remember right, she was overhyped that week. I pinpoint Kansas because it probably the most similar shaped racetrack. She finished 21st and 23rd in her two career starts at Kentucky.
11-Denny Hamlin: I am not super high on Hamlin this week at Kentucky. He finished 3rd at Daytona, but that been his only top 10 finish since Pocono. In fact, Hamlin have not scored back to back top 10 finishes this season. I find that very surprising. Especially since he have finished 11th or better in 4 of his past 6 races. It doesn't help that Hamlin have struggled to find conisistency on this type track in 2015. In 5 races on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he have compiled 20.6 average finish , 11.8 average start, 11.6 average running position, 67 laps led and 93.7 driver rating. Two things stand out about those stats: 11.8 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. Those two things tells me he have ran very well, but have been unlucky. His Kentucky isn't very good either. He have finished poorly the past two seasons here.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff have struggled this season, but he have gotten respectable finishes this season for the most part. Biffle actually have some decent results on other 1.5 mile racetracks. In 5 races, he have compiled an 14.0 average finish , 13.0 average start, 17.8 average running position and 76.7 driver rating. 3 of those 5 races have ended in 14th-17th place finish. His other two results were 2nd or 25th. I think it very important to realize he will likely be nothing more than teen driver. Biff doesn't have a great track record at Kentucky though. In 4 races, he have an 22.5 average finish with only 1 top 15 finish and 3 Top 25 finishes. I think there better fantasy options out there at the moment.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch escaped Daytona will little damage to his chase hopes and now go to one of his best racetracks on the 2015 schedule. This is one of the places I circled where he could win at. Truth be told, I think he will gain a lot from the new race package. He could win this race and personally I think he just might. Don't overlook Kyle Busch. I think he is the best driver at JGR right now. The other three drivers haven't produced the performances Busch have this season. Even though he haven't always gotten the results he wanted. He have only raced once this season on the cookie cutters. That was back at Charlotte. If I remember right he finished 11th in that event. However that was very misleading though. He had a top 5 car in that race, but late race pit strategy screwed him over in the end. His Kentucky record is pretty impressive overall. In 4 races, Busch have had an 4.5 average finish with 1 win and 3 Top 5 finishes. His only finish outside the top 5 was 10th in 2012. His past two efforts have ended in 5th and 2nd at Kentucky.
19-Carl Edwards: Carl Edwards have finished twice this season inside the top 10. I think it time to re-adjust our expectation for Edwards. Of course I also said that at Charlotte and he went out and won. So he will probably win at Kentucky now. Anyhow he been okay on the similar tracks this season. In 5 races, he have compiled an 17.0 average finish, 8.6 average start, 11.4 average running position, 39 laps led and 93.7 driver rating. His 11.4 average running position tells me a lot about his overall performance though. It a strong indication that he have been a better performer than his finishes shows. He been pretty so-and-so at Kentucky with 3 top 15 finishes in 4 starts at Kentucky.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been a strong performer this season at 1.5 mile venues. He been the best among the JGR cars in 5 races. In those races, he have compiled an 9.4 average finish, 15.6 average start, 11.6 average running position, 38 laps led and 92.5 driver rating. His Kentucky record is very impressive as well. In 4 races, he have compiled an 4.5 average finish with 1 win and 4 Top 7 finishes. He went to victory lane in 2013. However I think last season race is a better judge of how could do this weekend. Last season he finished 4th in this race. I have high hopes for Matt Kenseth and the 20 team. In fact I think JGR as whole will be bad fast. Especially since they seems to have found more speed lately on the intermediate racetracks.
22-Joey Logano: Logano may be the best kept secret this week. Guys like Busch, Harvick and Johnson will likely take the spotlight. However Logano is someone you could depend to deliver a solid points weekend for your team. If you are lucky, he just may be more than that. This season on other 1.5 mile tracks, he have compiled an 7.2 average finish, 2.4 average start, 6.8 average running position, 196 laps led and 111.1 driver rating. A key to Logano's success this season have been qualifying well. For awhile I thought Logano and Team Penske was off their game. However it look like Logano is back on track with 3 top 5 in his past 4 races, after finishing outside the top 10 at Charlotte and Dover. Logano big advantage over most drivers this week will be his strong qualifying efforts this season. His Kentucky record isn't nothing special, but he did look pretty solid here last season. He finished 9th, but he had the second-best car in that event behind teammate Brad Keselowski. In his debut with Penske, he finished 4th for those that are wondering.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon finished 6th at Daytona, but he still doesn't have a win to his name. I could see Gordon winning at Kentucky, but I think it likely. Most of this season, he have found ways into trouble or something that caused him to get misleading finish. Honestly I find it very hard to trust him at the moment. In 5 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he have compiled an 17.0 average finish, 15.4 average start, 13.8 average running position, 3 laps led and 85.4 driver rating. Looking at his races this season, he haven't been terrible overall. Really his only bad race was Atlanta. However none of those races were great either. Least not enough to be consider as a legit fantasy option at Kentucky. Hard saying how Gordon will finish here. Really he been a guessing game all season long.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is having his best season of his career. He started off very well, but unlike most season he haven't matter declined in production though. Sure he have had a few bad races here and there, but every driver will have that from time to time. In his past 6 races, he have finished 8th-16th in 5 of those races. On 1.5 mile racetracks (minus Texas wreck), Paul have compiled 14.3 average finish, 20.5 average start, 14.5 average running position and 83.9 driver rating. Back at Kansas, Menard had a top 10 car and was running in 4th before a late caution killed him. I believe he was caught for speeding on pit road late. If that didn't happen, then he would have easily finished inside the top 10. If not better.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is someone to be watching this week. He have been very strong all season long and that should be the case once again this weekend. He been one of the strongest drivers on this type track this season. On similar 1.5 mile racetracks, he have compiled an 10.7 average finish , 7.7 average start, 7.0 average running position, 183 laps led and 112.0 driver rating. Remember he missed Las Vegas and Atlanta, so he only have raced 3 times on the 1.5 milers. I think it only matter of time before he wins another race and I wouldn't be shocked if it was on Saturday night. His Kentucky stats are not very good, but I don't it matter very much this season.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is having a down year, but I think there a lot to like going forward with the 2nd year driver. He almost went to victory lane at Michigan and finished inside the top 10 at Dover and Pocono. He had a tough outing at Daytona, but I think Larson could make a solid fantasy option this week. He was running top 5 last season here before having a tire going down that sent him into the wall. Not to many people will take a chance with Larson. However I think he worth considering. Especially if he looks good in Wednesday's testing.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is someone you could easily depend on this weekend at Kentucky. This season on 1.5 mile racetracks, he have won 3 times in 5 races. The two races , he didn't? Atlanta and Charlotte. In those races, he wrecked out for those that don't remember. He probably would have won both of those races as well. In those 5 races, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 16.6 average start, 13.4 average running position, 275 laps led and 106.4 driver rating. I am willing to bet he either wins or wrecks out again. In fact I would bet on that too. Even Jimmie Johnson himself admits the 48 team is being more aggressive with going for wins. Something we all knew already though. In 4 races at Kentucky, he have had an 7.0 average finish with 1 top 5 and 4 Top 10 finishes.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex started the season with 14 top 10 finishes in the first 15 races. However all of suddenly he have finished poorly. I am sure it just bad luck though. He will likely get back on track at Kentucky. In 5 races on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season, he have compiled an 6.2 average finish, 10.2 average start, 6.0 average running position, 229 laps led and 117.2 driver rating. I am very interested how testing goes Wednesday for him and the 78 team. I have some high hopes for Truex this weekend.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is coming off a big win at Daytona and look for more of the same at Kentucky. Same Junior Nation, but I don't see that happening. Even though he holds the best average finish in the series since Kansas (7 races ago). In those 7 races, he have held an impressive series-best 7.9 average finish, 14.7 average start, 9.7 average running position and 105.6 driver rating. He been very strong all season long on this type track. He have compiled 3.2 average finish, 14.0 average start, 7.4 average running position, 5 laps led and 111.3 driver rating. Those are some very good stats to back up the most recent race winner. While he doesn't have the best Kentucky record, but I wouldn't worry about that. He will be fast and he will be a contender on Saturday night.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
