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Sleepers -
Ryan Newman: Newman isn't the top driver on anyone radar, but Newman have been a pretty effect fantasy option this season. On the 5 races on 1.5 mile racetracks, he have finished 12th or better in every race this season. Altogether he have an 8.2 average finish with 4 Top 10 finishes. How does that compare to the competition in 2015? His 8.2 average finish ranks him 6th in the series. Newman haven't been anything special at Kentucky, but he haven't been terrible either. In 4 races, he have put together 13.8 average finish (12th-best) with 2 Top 10s and 13.0 average running position. I am willing to bet Newman finishes inside the top 12 this weekend. However he doesn't have much upside which limits his fantasy value and potential.
Kyle Larson: Not a lot of people are very high on the 2nd-year driver, but I have a feeling he will be a great fantasy option at Kentucky. He have ran very well this season and have proven he can run inside the top 10 on any given weekend. Before Sonoma and Daytona, I thought Larson was onto something. In fact I still do. Last season he finished 40th, but don't fooled. He was running around 5th before blowing a tire. With tracks such as New Hampshire and Pocono coming up, it might be a good idea to get the jump on the Larson value.
Casey Mears: Believe it or not, Mears have been one of the best value plays at Kentucky over the first 4 races in the Cup Series. In those races, he have put together 20.3 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. On similar length tracks this season, he have strung together 21.8 average finish with 2 top 20 finishes. On a normal weekend, you can expect Mears to finish somewhere from 20th to 25th. Now that is far from impressive, but it pretty good considering level of equipment he is in. He will be more valuable in some leagues than others though.
Busts -
Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been pretty inconsistent this season and will most likely finish outside the top 10. Only thing predictable about Hamlin is he never get back-to-back top 10s. That's right. This season, Denny Hamlin haven't put together back to back top 10 finishes yet. Even though he have came close a few times. Kentucky isn't exactly a great track for him. He have performed well here, but haven't gotten the results though. Truth be told, he just too inconsistent to be trusted at this point of the season. On 1.5 mile racetracks this season, Hamlin have 20.6 average finish 2 Top 10 finishes. There are better places to use him. Especially places like New Hampshire, Pocono, Bristol and Richmond coming over the next 10 races.
Jeff Gordon: I think Gordon will have the potential to do well, but in the end I think he will finish somewhere in the teens. It tough to say Gordon is a bust as this is his final shot at winning at Kentucky. However everything points to Gordon being disappointment. Last season here, he finished 6th, had 9.0 average running position (T-6th best), and 106.6 driver rating (6th-best). So not like he was superman last season at Kentucky. This season he been far from impressive on the 1.5 milers. In 5 races, he have held 17.0 average with 2 Top 10 finishes and 13.8 average running position. It been tough for Gordon to run well this season. Honestly I am not too sure if this new package will be favorable for him or not.
Twitter - @Garryy12
