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Usually Jeff Nathans works on this post, but however he wasn't available this weekend. So instead I have decided I would take responsibility of it. We are at Michigan where they are using the high-drag package that was employed at Indy just a few weeks ago. The key to success this weekend will be figuring out which fantasy options have the most potential and value. Track position will likely be key to victory and quite frankly I think it will determine the race. This high-drag package will be make for more passing and better racing than at Indy. However I am not sure how much better it will be though. Passing looked awful tough in practice.
**Below I have listed my top 15 drivers after watching practice and qualifying. Also I have taken into consideration: Track history, momentum and personal thoughts.
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is probably the driver to beat on Sunday. He starting from 7th and looked very strong in both practice sessions on Saturday. Headed into the weekend, I viewed him as the odd-on favorite to go to victory lane. He have done nothing to convince me he isn't the guy to beat. If you are looking for a top notch fantasy option, then you have found your guy. However he will cost you a lot though. In most formats, Harvick is the highest priced fantasy options in terms of value. I think he will go to victory lane on Sunday.
2. Joey Logano - Logano was one of the most talked about drivers heading into the Friday's first practice session and he haven't disappointed yet. While him qualifying 10th was considered poor, he have proven that he is a top tier fantasy selection on a weekly basis. While I agree him starting up front have been a strong attribution, I don't think it a must though. Logano was very strong in both practices on Saturday. He looked to have a top 5 car based on speed alone. Track history is on his side as well. In 5 career starts with Penske, he have finished inside the top 5 in 4 races. From a momentum standpoint, no driver have scored more top 5 finishes since Dover. In that span, he have finished inside the top 5 in every race except Pocono (ran out of gas while leading) and Daytona (wrecked). Overall an pretty reliable driver!
3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth will start on the pole for Sunday's race. I was pretty surprised that he qualified that well to be honest. Especially since Kenseth is not known to be an great qualifier. Typically he is an mid-teen type driver in qualifying. When Kenseth qualifies up front, then that usually means he have an pretty fast car. He looked pretty good in both practices. However I am not sure if he have enough to speed to win though. I would not be surprised either. Based on speed I think he is more of a top 10 driver, but two things made me rank him higher: Strong track history and have the most momentum among all the drivers in the series. Earlier this season he finished 4th at Michigan. Since Kentucky, Kenseth have finished 7th or better in every race. I think he continues that streak once again!
4. Carl Edwards - I usually don't rank Edwards this high, but he looks too good to be ranked any lower. Weather he backs up his speed in the race is questionable. Among the JGR cars, he seems to always fade in the races more so than Kenseth and Busch does. The one thing I like about him is how strong he been in the past at Michigan. From career point of view, Edwards have the best average finish among all active-drivers. Earlier this season, Edwards ran inside the top 5 for most of the day, but he faded in latter half of the race. To be fair that was a weird race, so I will give him an pass on that. At the moment JGR seems to be head and shoulders better than everyone else. So I would gladly take a chance with Edwards. Even if he fades in the race, he will still finish near the the front. At worse you are looking at an top 10 finish.
5. Martin Truex Jr - At the moment it seems like Truex have the speed to win races, but he does not have the consistency to be a trustful fantasy choice. Even though he is probably an top 5 driver based on speed. In Final practice he looked pretty stout overall. Earlier this season he finished 3rd in this race. He ran around 5th for most of the day I would say. His strongest attribute was staying near the front all day long. I think that is a key in these potential fuel-mileage races. If you can stay consistent, then you are pretty golden. Thinking back to Indianapolis, he was pretty darn fast. Wasn't ever an race winner contender, but he consistency ran around 6th and made up positions as more cautions flew. I expect an similar performance on Sunday from him.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski isn't the first guy you think of when we come to Michigan, but he is more than capable of being an top 10 finisher on Sunday. Keselowski showed top 10 potential in practice but I don't think he will have enough to challenge for anything beyond that though. At Michigan, Brad K usually runs from 6th-9th for most of the day. So I am gonna predict that where he runs on Sunday. Anything beyond that is probably bonus for those that gamble on him.
7. Dale Jr - Hendrick doesn't have the speed to contend with Penske and Gibbs, but I am sure they will all be usable fantasy options though. I trust Dale Jr the most out of the 4. None of them showed legit top 5 speed, but I was not expecting them too. The 88 looks to be an top 10 car without an question after watching final practice, but I don't know if he can contend for the win, unless few drivers from Haas, Gibbs and Penske have problems. After practice, Dale Jr tweeted this:
Usually Jeff Nathans works on this post, but however he wasn't available this weekend. So instead I have decided I would take responsibility of it. We are at Michigan where they are using the high-drag package that was employed at Indy just a few weeks ago. The key to success this weekend will be figuring out which fantasy options have the most potential and value. Track position will likely be key to victory and quite frankly I think it will determine the race. This high-drag package will be make for more passing and better racing than at Indy. However I am not sure how much better it will be though. Passing looked awful tough in practice.
**Below I have listed my top 15 drivers after watching practice and qualifying. Also I have taken into consideration: Track history, momentum and personal thoughts.
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is probably the driver to beat on Sunday. He starting from 7th and looked very strong in both practice sessions on Saturday. Headed into the weekend, I viewed him as the odd-on favorite to go to victory lane. He have done nothing to convince me he isn't the guy to beat. If you are looking for a top notch fantasy option, then you have found your guy. However he will cost you a lot though. In most formats, Harvick is the highest priced fantasy options in terms of value. I think he will go to victory lane on Sunday.
2. Joey Logano - Logano was one of the most talked about drivers heading into the Friday's first practice session and he haven't disappointed yet. While him qualifying 10th was considered poor, he have proven that he is a top tier fantasy selection on a weekly basis. While I agree him starting up front have been a strong attribution, I don't think it a must though. Logano was very strong in both practices on Saturday. He looked to have a top 5 car based on speed alone. Track history is on his side as well. In 5 career starts with Penske, he have finished inside the top 5 in 4 races. From a momentum standpoint, no driver have scored more top 5 finishes since Dover. In that span, he have finished inside the top 5 in every race except Pocono (ran out of gas while leading) and Daytona (wrecked). Overall an pretty reliable driver!
3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth will start on the pole for Sunday's race. I was pretty surprised that he qualified that well to be honest. Especially since Kenseth is not known to be an great qualifier. Typically he is an mid-teen type driver in qualifying. When Kenseth qualifies up front, then that usually means he have an pretty fast car. He looked pretty good in both practices. However I am not sure if he have enough to speed to win though. I would not be surprised either. Based on speed I think he is more of a top 10 driver, but two things made me rank him higher: Strong track history and have the most momentum among all the drivers in the series. Earlier this season he finished 4th at Michigan. Since Kentucky, Kenseth have finished 7th or better in every race. I think he continues that streak once again!
4. Carl Edwards - I usually don't rank Edwards this high, but he looks too good to be ranked any lower. Weather he backs up his speed in the race is questionable. Among the JGR cars, he seems to always fade in the races more so than Kenseth and Busch does. The one thing I like about him is how strong he been in the past at Michigan. From career point of view, Edwards have the best average finish among all active-drivers. Earlier this season, Edwards ran inside the top 5 for most of the day, but he faded in latter half of the race. To be fair that was a weird race, so I will give him an pass on that. At the moment JGR seems to be head and shoulders better than everyone else. So I would gladly take a chance with Edwards. Even if he fades in the race, he will still finish near the the front. At worse you are looking at an top 10 finish.
5. Martin Truex Jr - At the moment it seems like Truex have the speed to win races, but he does not have the consistency to be a trustful fantasy choice. Even though he is probably an top 5 driver based on speed. In Final practice he looked pretty stout overall. Earlier this season he finished 3rd in this race. He ran around 5th for most of the day I would say. His strongest attribute was staying near the front all day long. I think that is a key in these potential fuel-mileage races. If you can stay consistent, then you are pretty golden. Thinking back to Indianapolis, he was pretty darn fast. Wasn't ever an race winner contender, but he consistency ran around 6th and made up positions as more cautions flew. I expect an similar performance on Sunday from him.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski isn't the first guy you think of when we come to Michigan, but he is more than capable of being an top 10 finisher on Sunday. Keselowski showed top 10 potential in practice but I don't think he will have enough to challenge for anything beyond that though. At Michigan, Brad K usually runs from 6th-9th for most of the day. So I am gonna predict that where he runs on Sunday. Anything beyond that is probably bonus for those that gamble on him.
7. Dale Jr - Hendrick doesn't have the speed to contend with Penske and Gibbs, but I am sure they will all be usable fantasy options though. I trust Dale Jr the most out of the 4. None of them showed legit top 5 speed, but I was not expecting them too. The 88 looks to be an top 10 car without an question after watching final practice, but I don't know if he can contend for the win, unless few drivers from Haas, Gibbs and Penske have problems. After practice, Dale Jr tweeted this:
Frost practice today didn't go so well. Second practice we got the car a whole lot better. Still work some to do. Our guys will sort it out.
— Dale Earnhardt Jr. (@DaleJr) August 15, 2015
If I know Dale Jr, then I am sure he have that car pretty racey when the green waves on Sunday afternoon. I like him for least an top 10 finish.8. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin will start from 2nd on Sunday and looked to have the speed to back it up in practice. It kinda reminds me before the repave with the speed he is showing. However I don't think he was as good as his teammates was. I am ranking Hamlin lower because I really don't trust him. Everytime he have shown speed this season, he have not backed it up in the race. Okay he finished out a few races this season, but for some reason he is too inconsistent to be an legit fantasy option in my book. Does that mean he won't contend for a top 5 finish? Nope. I just don't think he is reliable enough to trust.
9. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is far from an great fantasy option at Michigan, but he from time to time knock off great finishes here. I mentioned above with Dale Jr how HMS is behind right now in terms of speed. Usually I would list him as an top 5 driver because of the potential he has, but the speed and track position is what really matters here. Johnson at the moment don't have either. Don't get me wrong I am sure he will be fine. However his track record at Michigan worries me. If you look at his record from an career point of view, you would notice that he usually find ways to finish poorly. In practice he looked to be borderline top 10 driver.
10. Kyle Busch - Before wrecking in final practice, I thought Kyle Busch had an top 3 car and one of the heavy favroites to win Sunday's race. However he had to go to an backup car after wrecking in opening minutes of final practice. Typically I don't significantly changes my personal opinion on an driver because of someone going to an backup. Unfortunately I am afraid that passing will be very tough in Sunday's race. He should be able to drive through the field, but question is how long will it take? While I agree we cannot count out Busch as he have proven in the past. I also cannot ignore the fact that he have an very questionable track here. Remember earlier this season he found bad luck after getting loose in turn 2. I still think Busch is an top 10 driver, but he may use up his stuff trying to get to the front. If past history is an indication, then he may be a bit reckless in the process.
11. Kurt Busch - I am not as high on Busch as everyone is. Sure he won earlier this season here, but he is starting mid-pack and haven't blown me away overall in two practices on Saturday. Now he will probably finish inside the top 10 on Sunday, but his track record held me back from ranking me higher. Plus I think he have better track coming up. If I had to guess where he would finish, then I would say from 7th-12th place range overall. Once again I am not as high on him as everyone probably is.
12-Kasey Kahne - Kahne will start from 10th, but I do not trust him though. He showed some speed in first practice on Saturday, but he struggled in final practice I thought. I could have overlooked that. Honestly that not what I am concerned with. Kahne is inconsistent and typically cannot be considered an realible fantasy option. Michigan have been a good track for him, but anything better than top 15 finish is probably asking for too much.
13. Kyle Larson - Larson starting deep in the field, but he seems to have a lot of speed in his car. However I think passing will be pretty tough to do in the race. It will take some strategy for Larson to gain track position and I think he will accomplish that. Earlier this season he had a top 10 car for most of that race. Late in the race, The 42 team gambled late in the race and it didn't work out. He needed just a few more laps before the rain would come. I would not be shocked to see him gamble again for the win this weekend. Even though it probably unlikely unless he hits the strategy perfectly. Larson looked like an top 10 guy in practice, but his inconsistency worries me!
14. Austin Dillon - Dillon will start from the 4th starting position and have shown top 10 speeds all weekend long. I highly doubt he can keep his car up inside the top 5, but I think he is an legit fantasy sleeper. I consider Michigan one of Dillon's best tracks. Even though Dillon have not have the results to back it up. I think this weekend is different though. He sweep the top 5 in every practice and qualifying at Michigan. This is by far the most competitive I seen him so far in his career at the Cup level. Dillon is an top 15 driver heading into Sunday's race. With top 10 upside if he can back up the speed in race.
15. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer would be ranked higher, but I haven't seen enough out of him this weekend yet. Bowyer have an strong track record at Michigan which may not mean much, but he usually good for a top 10 finish at this place. He showed top 15 speed in both practices, but I think he have the potential to finish closer to the top 10 though. I like him a lot more since he is under the radar more than he have been in past seasons.
Yahoo Tier Rankings -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Joey Logano
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Dale Jr
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Kyle Busch
9. Ryan Newman
10. Jeff Gordon
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Kurt Busch
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Kyle Larson
6. Austin Dillon
7. Clint Bowyer
8. Jamie Mac
9. Tony Stewart
10. Paul Menard
11. Aric Almirola
12. Greg Biffle
13. AJ Dinger
C:
1. Ryan Blaney
2. David Ragan
3. Danica Patrick
Twitter - @MattAleza
