Saturday, August 08, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Update (WGI)

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A:

1. Kevin Harvick - I am ranking Harvick number one for a few reasons. He qualified inside the top 5, have a very fast car on the long run and is a proven racer at Watkins Glenn. Those factors led me to rank Harvick over everyone else in this tier. I don't know if he have the car to beat on Sunday, but I am sure he will be in contention all day long. The one thing I like about Harvick is he rarely have back-to-back bad finishes. So don't worry about last week's race at Pocono. I fully expect him to rebound in a big way.After qualifying here what he tweeted:

2. Kyle Busch - There was more than a few drivers who made a case for the 2nd spot. Guys like Gordon, Johnson and Keselowski all probably could have taken the 2nd spot. However when compiling the ranks, I look at 3 things: Current momentum, track history and starting position. Busch unquestionably have the edge over his competition. Busch have won 4 of the past 6 cup races and have won twice at The Glenn. Not to mention he is starting from 8th. In  practice I thought he was one of the strongest drivers. With that said, I think he is easily a top 5 guy heading into Sunday's race. I have him across the line in 3rd in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

3. Jimmie Johnson - Tough to rank Johnson this week. I thought he had a very competitive car but he starts little deeper than I would want in 9th starting position. That isn't a terrible starting position but almost 70% of all the winners have came from inside the top 5 at this racetrack. So I decided to rank him a little lower. Johnson is a very underrated road course racer, as he have proven earlier this season at Sonoma where he put a licking on the field and finished 6th. He probably little better there than here, but I still think he close to a top 5 guy heading into Sunday's race. I have him across the line in 4th.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski starting from the 11th starting position. This is not ideal for fantasy players unfortunately as over the past two seasons, only a few drivers who started outside of the top 10 have been able to finish up front inside the top 5. So the odds are definitely against him, but I wouldn't rule him out though. Brad K always seems to have a fast car for this race. Personally I don't think he will win on Sunday, but I think he is capable of driving through the field and contending for a top 10 finish. The combination of momentum and track history gives me faith that he will be a solid fantasy pick for players. Question is: Keselowski better than the drivers above? I have him across the line in 6th in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 6th

5. Jeff Gordon - I was quite suprise to see how fast Jeff Gordon been this weekend. As he only have two top 10 finishes over his past 13 starts at this track. He looks to have top 5 speed but history says he won't finish there. My big problem with Gordon is he cannot ever finish race. Especially when he have a strong run going. I doubt that changes on Sunday either. I expect him to have a top 5 to top 8 car but fade late in the event. Gamble on Gordon if you want but I think there safer fantasy options to consider. I have him across the line in 7th.

My Overall Ranking: 7th

Other Options - Joey Logano (8th), Dale Jr (10th), Matt Kenseth (12th), Denny Hamlin (16th) and Ryan Newman (17th)

B:

1. AJ Dinger - If you are stupid enough to leave the Dinger out of your fantasy lineup on Sunday, then you deserve what gonna happen. I believe Dinger will be one of the toughest drivers to beat. If you are gonna win, then you will have to beat him. The pole position is always important, but starting on the front row have translated to a lot of wins at this track. Not to mention, Dinger said he was closer in practice 1 than he was in last season's race. He wasn't as good in final practice, but they may have been playing with their setups though. Least that what I would guess. I don't know, so don't quote me on that. I believe Dinger is legit and will either finish 1st or 2nd when the checkers waves.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex have been for awhile an ace on the road course, but it wasn't until his 2013 win at Sonoma for people to realize how good he truly is. I however catch on to that trend back in 2010. Ever since I been employing him at the Glenn. For good reason too! In 9 career races, he have finished 13th or better in 6 of 9 races. That pretty darn good. He have found more success at Sonoma, but I think he is an excellent fantasy option this weekend. Truex will start from 2nd and could quite possibly steal a win on Sunday. I say ''steal'' because too many people are overlooking the 78 team this week. I think that team have found some of that speed they been missing since Sonoma.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

3. Kyle Larson - Larson may have hit rock bottom at New Hampshire, but since he been a solid fantasy pick with finishes of 9th and 12th over his past two races (Indy and Pocono). He will try to make it 3 straight top 12 finishes. Larson will start from 6th and have a top 10 car for Sunday's race. I don't think Larson will be able to win, but I think The Glenn is more suitable track than Sonoma. Honestly I feel like this is one of his two final shots at making the chase. In practice, he was very competitive in my opinion. I have him as a top 10 finishers when the checkers wave. Larson finished 4th in this race last season for those that are wondering.

My Overall Ranking: 9th

4. Kurt Busch - Busch is starting deeper than I would want in a fantasy pick, but he is a proven winner on the road courses and should be able to run up front on Sunday. I am not saying he will finish inside the top 5, but I would be shocked if he didn't have top 10 speed though. Last season he finished 3rd in this race and had a very strong car. Truthfully I didn't watch Kurt much in practice as I didn't have him on my radar, but his overall speeds look solid on the charts. I have him across the line in 11th.

My Overall Ranking: 11th

5. Carl Edwards - This final spot was pretty tough as there was few drivers who I could have given this spot to, but I decided to give it to Edwards. Mainly due to his success here. Overall I haven't been impressed by Edwards so far this weekend. However that exactly when you have to worry about Edwards the most. For some reason, he have a known history of performing well when he is overlooked. I have him across the line in 13th in my overall rankings. However I think there better places to unload him though like Bristol and Richmond before the chase starts.

My Overall Ranking: 13th

Other Options - Stewart (14th), Bowyer (15th), Kasey Kahne (19th), and Menard (20th)

C:

1. Justin Allgaier - Before qualifying, I thought Justin was much better than anyone else in this tier. After qualifying I think he put a larger gap now with his 12th place starting position. In practice, he said this was his best ever car at a road course. If that true than we are in for quite a points day from him. Before the season started, I thought Allagier had two tracks where he would do great at that was Bristol and The Glenn. I like him a lot this weekend. Pesonally I would not be shocked to see him finish in the top 15 on Sunday.

My Overall Ranking: 18th

2. David Ragan - Ragan is probably the 2nd best fantasy option in this tier, but I am not sure how much he have on Danica Patrick. Personally I think Ragan will run inside the top 20 on Sunday but I would not count on him to finish there though. Ragan's track record is what concerns me. He doesn't really have a signature performance to make him a legit fantasy option in my opinion. I have him across the line 21st, so expect a finish within 2-3 positions of that.

My Overall Ranking: 21st

3. Danica Patrick - Patrick will start from the 22nd starting position. I think she can be close to a top 20 fantasy option, but I would not count on it. So far in career she have made two starts so far. In those two races she have finished 20th and 21st in those races. I would expect similar performance from Danica on Sunday. If you are looking to go off-sequence in this tier, then she may be your best choice. I would expect most people to roll with the 51 of Allagier. I have her finishing anywhere from 19th to 24th place range.

My Overall Ranking: 23rd

****Matt Aleza and Kate Roswell were major contributors to this post


Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans 


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