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I think Chase Elliott is a very consistent and much mature driver than his age indicates. But I don't think he is super talented, least not yet anyways. He doesn't go out and blow you away with a monster performance. That never have been his style and I don't think it ever will be. Elliott will have a tough task to be replacing a legend like Jeff Gordon. But I do think this kid does have what it takes to be a solid replacement for HMS. He is not very tough on his equipment and he understands what he needs to do in order to get a quality finish. Like I said, he is a very mature driver!
In 2016, I expect him to struggle early in the season. He will have the typical growing pains with a new team and he will undoubtedly have some difficulty adjusting to full-time at the Cup level. But overall I think he will be able to contend for top 20 finishes right off the bat on a weekly basis. As the season goes on, I expect his fantasy production to increasingly climb as he get more experience and more time behind the wheel. I think the first half of the season, it will be more about getting Chase comfortable in the car and getting him to know the tracks better. As we hit these tracks for the second time, that is when I really think he will take off and really become a threat.
I expect Chase to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and I could see him knocking off some top 10s in the process. This been his bread and butter type racetrack in the NXS and I don't expect that to change with HMS power under the hood. I think most weekends on the intermediate racetracks, I think he will be least good for a mid to high teen finishes, especially early in the season. After awhile I expect him to be a top 15 driver as his equipment should give him a leg up on most of the drivers back there. With some additional experience, I don't think he will have much problems finishing around of guys like Paul Menard, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola,etc.
I also expect Elliott to be strong on the larger flats of Indy and Pocono. These tracks take horsepower and that shouldn't much of a problem for the young HMS driver. I think he will be capable of low to mid teens finishes mainly though. But still that would be huge if he could finish well at the larger flats. Not always easy to finish well at Pocono and Indy. Elliott finished 18th in his lone start on the larger flats in 2015. He was more of a 20-ish place driver though. I think his horsepower advantage will give him the edge over most of the guys he will be racing in the low twenties and low teens. So you can expect top 15 potential from him at both Pocono and Indy. I think he will struggle more at Pocono though. Especially the first time around because he never have raced there at the Cup level. Plus Pocono is a very tricky track, but he should be just fine though. On the shorter flats, I think he will struggle a lot more than on the larger flats. I think tracks like New Hampshire and Phoenix will be more troublesome because horsepower isn't as much of a factor. He didn't make any starts on the shorter flats in 2015, so the data is very limited, but I would say based on NXS record it would translate into finishes somewhere in the mid to high teens though.
On the short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), I think Elliott will be a decent driver. However I don't think any of his best results will come on this type track. No disrespect to Elliott, but he will be lucky to be a mid to high teen driver on the shorter tracks. I think he will be better on the intermediate and larger flats racetracks. I think he best days will be near the top 10 and I don't see him coming close to that. His short track will be Richmond (for now) and that the only track he have any real experience. He also made a start back at Martinsville, but he finished almost 100 laps down after wrecking very early in the race. He had to go to garage and make repairs to his car. I think Bristol is the big unknown for Elliott! He have never raced at this venue at the NSCS level and that is more worrisome because Bristol is a very tough track to master. Especially for a young driver like Chase Elliott.
I think Elliott have the skill-set (evidence by his NXS record) and equipment to be a respectable driver on the short tracks. I also believe he will be a risky fantasy choice as well. He will be racing at the highest level in Nascar with the toughest competition too. I think experience will be something that hurt him at the short tracks in 2016. I think this type track is a difficult one for younger drivers because they don't know how to react sometimes. So they tend to make mistakes easier then other drivers will. Looking back at Martinsville last season, that what happened to him. If Elliott can keep his car clean and on (or least near) lead lap, then top 20 finishes should follow.
On Road Courses, I am torn on what to think about Elliott. Part of me, think he will struggle at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. While the other part of me, think he will be one of the better road courses surprises. He found a decent amount of success on this type track in the lower series and should translate into quality finishes at the Cup level. Then again, he is a rookie and he have never raced on either of these tracks. I think he will have more success at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. I think Sonoma is the more skill required track and that could be challenging for him. It about hitting your marks and that may not be the best thing for a driver making his track debut. Overall I think he will contend for top 20 finishes at both tracks since HMS builds fast cars for the courses! Anything beyond that may be asking for too much though.
I think the plates will give Elliott the most problems. This is the most unpredictable type of racetrack. I don't think there is any way else to put it. Daytona and Talladega are true wildcards and anyone can win it and anyone wreck out. I think Elliott might knock off a few lucky finishes, but overall I don't think he holds too much value. There so many better tracks to use him at, so I don't use any real reason to waste a start with him at either track. Personally I don't want no part of Elliott at Daytona and Talladega.
In 2016, I think Chase Elliott will have a very successful rookie season. I think he will be a consistent driver with more upside as the season progress. Like any young driver, I expect him to have his bad and good days. Elliott is a very mature driver, so I think his bad days will be far in between. But as we saw in 2015, he will make mistakes. I think early in the season, I think he will have a lot of finishes from 17th-25th place range. But as the season goes on I think he have the equipment and skillset to be a top 20 driver on a weekly basis. He should eventually have the potential to challenge for top 15 finishes and maybe even top 10 finishes later in the season. I am not sure if he will have a rookie season like Kyle Larson did in 2014, but I think he can have a big impact at certain tracks. It will be very interesting to find out how he does in 2016!
Chase Elliott Fantasy Nascar Profile
Twitter - @JeffNathans
I think Chase Elliott is a very consistent and much mature driver than his age indicates. But I don't think he is super talented, least not yet anyways. He doesn't go out and blow you away with a monster performance. That never have been his style and I don't think it ever will be. Elliott will have a tough task to be replacing a legend like Jeff Gordon. But I do think this kid does have what it takes to be a solid replacement for HMS. He is not very tough on his equipment and he understands what he needs to do in order to get a quality finish. Like I said, he is a very mature driver!
In 2016, I expect him to struggle early in the season. He will have the typical growing pains with a new team and he will undoubtedly have some difficulty adjusting to full-time at the Cup level. But overall I think he will be able to contend for top 20 finishes right off the bat on a weekly basis. As the season goes on, I expect his fantasy production to increasingly climb as he get more experience and more time behind the wheel. I think the first half of the season, it will be more about getting Chase comfortable in the car and getting him to know the tracks better. As we hit these tracks for the second time, that is when I really think he will take off and really become a threat.
I expect Chase to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and I could see him knocking off some top 10s in the process. This been his bread and butter type racetrack in the NXS and I don't expect that to change with HMS power under the hood. I think most weekends on the intermediate racetracks, I think he will be least good for a mid to high teen finishes, especially early in the season. After awhile I expect him to be a top 15 driver as his equipment should give him a leg up on most of the drivers back there. With some additional experience, I don't think he will have much problems finishing around of guys like Paul Menard, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola,etc.
I also expect Elliott to be strong on the larger flats of Indy and Pocono. These tracks take horsepower and that shouldn't much of a problem for the young HMS driver. I think he will be capable of low to mid teens finishes mainly though. But still that would be huge if he could finish well at the larger flats. Not always easy to finish well at Pocono and Indy. Elliott finished 18th in his lone start on the larger flats in 2015. He was more of a 20-ish place driver though. I think his horsepower advantage will give him the edge over most of the guys he will be racing in the low twenties and low teens. So you can expect top 15 potential from him at both Pocono and Indy. I think he will struggle more at Pocono though. Especially the first time around because he never have raced there at the Cup level. Plus Pocono is a very tricky track, but he should be just fine though. On the shorter flats, I think he will struggle a lot more than on the larger flats. I think tracks like New Hampshire and Phoenix will be more troublesome because horsepower isn't as much of a factor. He didn't make any starts on the shorter flats in 2015, so the data is very limited, but I would say based on NXS record it would translate into finishes somewhere in the mid to high teens though.
On the short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), I think Elliott will be a decent driver. However I don't think any of his best results will come on this type track. No disrespect to Elliott, but he will be lucky to be a mid to high teen driver on the shorter tracks. I think he will be better on the intermediate and larger flats racetracks. I think he best days will be near the top 10 and I don't see him coming close to that. His short track will be Richmond (for now) and that the only track he have any real experience. He also made a start back at Martinsville, but he finished almost 100 laps down after wrecking very early in the race. He had to go to garage and make repairs to his car. I think Bristol is the big unknown for Elliott! He have never raced at this venue at the NSCS level and that is more worrisome because Bristol is a very tough track to master. Especially for a young driver like Chase Elliott.
I think Elliott have the skill-set (evidence by his NXS record) and equipment to be a respectable driver on the short tracks. I also believe he will be a risky fantasy choice as well. He will be racing at the highest level in Nascar with the toughest competition too. I think experience will be something that hurt him at the short tracks in 2016. I think this type track is a difficult one for younger drivers because they don't know how to react sometimes. So they tend to make mistakes easier then other drivers will. Looking back at Martinsville last season, that what happened to him. If Elliott can keep his car clean and on (or least near) lead lap, then top 20 finishes should follow.
On Road Courses, I am torn on what to think about Elliott. Part of me, think he will struggle at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. While the other part of me, think he will be one of the better road courses surprises. He found a decent amount of success on this type track in the lower series and should translate into quality finishes at the Cup level. Then again, he is a rookie and he have never raced on either of these tracks. I think he will have more success at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. I think Sonoma is the more skill required track and that could be challenging for him. It about hitting your marks and that may not be the best thing for a driver making his track debut. Overall I think he will contend for top 20 finishes at both tracks since HMS builds fast cars for the courses! Anything beyond that may be asking for too much though.
I think the plates will give Elliott the most problems. This is the most unpredictable type of racetrack. I don't think there is any way else to put it. Daytona and Talladega are true wildcards and anyone can win it and anyone wreck out. I think Elliott might knock off a few lucky finishes, but overall I don't think he holds too much value. There so many better tracks to use him at, so I don't use any real reason to waste a start with him at either track. Personally I don't want no part of Elliott at Daytona and Talladega.
In 2016, I think Chase Elliott will have a very successful rookie season. I think he will be a consistent driver with more upside as the season progress. Like any young driver, I expect him to have his bad and good days. Elliott is a very mature driver, so I think his bad days will be far in between. But as we saw in 2015, he will make mistakes. I think early in the season, I think he will have a lot of finishes from 17th-25th place range. But as the season goes on I think he have the equipment and skillset to be a top 20 driver on a weekly basis. He should eventually have the potential to challenge for top 15 finishes and maybe even top 10 finishes later in the season. I am not sure if he will have a rookie season like Kyle Larson did in 2014, but I think he can have a big impact at certain tracks. It will be very interesting to find out how he does in 2016!
Chase Elliott Fantasy Nascar Profile
Twitter - @JeffNathans
