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Casey Mears will drive the #13 car for Germain Racing again in 2016 and should be a quality top 25 driver on a weekly basis and often will be a threat to steal a top 20. Not many realize this (or remember), but back in 2003 Mears started out his career with CGR. Before moving onto HMS and then a few more teams after that. I think he finally starting to come into his own. Back when he was racing at CGR and HMS, I felt like people had such high standards for him. It really didn't allow him to relax, but at Germain Racing I feel like he much more comfortable and starting to show some potential . Clearly the #13 car isn't great equipment by any means, but these last two seasons he been very productive with 15 Top 20 finishes in each season. When compared to other drivers in similar rides, I would say he is doing heck of a job and doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he have been able to do.
Mears will be at his best on the road courses. He actually started off his racing career (before coming to Nascar) in open wheel racing which probably have been helpful with his success on the road courses so far in his career. Going by the recent average finishes,Watkins Glenn is his best racetrack (not named Daytona). He enters the 2016 season with 8 straight top 20 finishes at this racetrack and have 16.5 average finishing position over the past two seasons, despite having 25.5 average starting position. Over the last 4 seasons at WGI, he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 27.8 average start and 20.3 average running position. It should be noted that all four of those starts came in the 13 car with Germain Racing. In that 4-race span, what impresses me most is how well he been able to finish. Even though he only once qualified better than 26th and that was 22nd in 2014. In basic terms, this is statically Casey's best racetrack and if you are going him then it will be at WGI. At Sonoma, he been very strong as well. Last season's 38th place DNF (mechanical issue) and 2011's 34th place finish remains his lone poor finishes on road courses since joining Germain Racing. From 2012 to 2014 (3 race span), he compiled 14.7 average finish, 17.7 average start, 18.3 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Looking back at last season's race, he started 8th and was running competitively inside the top 10 before an axel broke. His 68.4 driver rating and 18.0 average running position should tell you how strong he was, despite finishing 13 laps down. When looking at numbers, Sonoma is arguably a better track for him than WGI. Statically WGI is his best track, but his in race performance suggests otherwise when comparing the numbers over the past 4 seasons. At Sonoma (over past 4 races), he have 20.5 average finish, 15.3 average start, 18.3 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. At WGI over the past 4 races, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 27.8 average start, 20.3 average running position and 69.4 driver rating. When looking at the in-race numbers, you can see that Casey been slightly better at Sonoma than WGI. He will be a force at both tracks and contending for top 20 finishes, if not top 15 finishes!
Flats will be another type track that Mears will have an opportunity to run respectable at. I don't think it will be as consistent or as strong as the road courses though. I think he will perform better on the short flats than the larger flats. At Phoenix when looking at his finishes. He been a bit inconsistent over the past 4 seasons (8 races), as he have compiled 24.1 average finish, 25.9 average start, 25.9 average running position and 61.2 driver rating. Those are not great numbers, so let look at a more positive trend of races at Phoenix. Over the past three spring races at Phoenix, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 28.2 average start, 24.3 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. His on track overall performance isn't great, but he seems to get solid finishes lately at Phoenix in the spring time. Overall (dating back to 2011), he have finished 6 of the past 10 Phoenix races inside the top 22. New Hampshire is Casey better shorter flat among the two probably. Over the past three races (dating back to September 2014), he have compiled 18.7 average finish, 21.7 average start, 20.7 average running position and 64.6 driver rating. Over that 3-race span at New Hampshire, he have finishes of 18th, 16th and 22nd. Mears was pretty solid on the shorter flats last season. He compiled 19.0 average finish, 22.0 average start, 21.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. I don't think we can expect those type of numbers on a year-to-year basis, but I do believe he is capable of least top 25 finishes on the shorter flats. Personally I think he will contend for top 20 every time he comes to New Hampshire or Phoenix though. He will probably have around 18th-22nd place finish potential.
I think he will struggle more on the larger flats because it requires more horsepower. Pocono will be the better of the two larger flats (Pocono and Indy). When I look at his recent numbers at Pocono, he have some good results and some bad results. Since joining Germain Racing in 2nd half of the 2010 season, he have gotten more bad finishes at Pocono than good. That understandable since the 13 team lacks speed on the faster tracks. Two finishes immediately jump out at me. He have finished 16th and 12th in August 2014 and June 2015. It important to note that, his last both-to-both top 20 finishes before that was in 2007 when he was with HMS. So it speak volume on how much this 13 team have improved over the past few seasons. I think Germain Racing switching from Ford to Chevy been a huge factor as well. Indy he have struggled at most of his career at. In 13 starts, he only have 3 top 20 finishes and probably considered his worst flat track overall. Over the last two seasons, he have compiled 26.5 average finish, 21.5 average start, 28.0 average running position and 50.4 driver rating. Ugly stats overall from the past two seasons, however he did finish 20th at Indy last season. Why is that so important? His best finish with the 13 car (in 4 previous starts) was 27th in 2013. Looking deeper in that race, he had an 20.0 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Statically speaking, that was his best performance since 2006 at Indy when he was still in the 41 car with CGR. On the larger flats in 2015, he had 2 top 20 finishes in 3 races. In 2016, I would expect a finish inside the top 25 with potential to sneak in a top 20. However I wouldn't bank on that. On the larger flats, he will lack the equipment and horsepower to be considered anything beyond top 25 material. I wouldn't rule out top 20 finishes, but it won't be a given though.
Intermediate racetracks will be one of the tougher places for Mears to be consistent and successful at. He will from time to time knock off a top 20 finish or so, but I expect most of his finishes to come from the 22nd-26th place range. In 2015 on all the intermediate racetracks (14 races), he compiled 24.6 average finish, 26.3 average start, 25.8 average running position and 59.1 driver rating. Okay that is a bit unfair because every driver will have some bad races throughout the season. So let's dig deeper into the stats and analysis it! Atlanta is probably his best racetrack non named a road course or Daytona recently. Over the last three seasons, he have compiled 19.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 25.3 average running position and 56.6 driver rating. His average finish (19.7) and average running position (25.3) doesn't really match up. However he finished 15th at Atlanta last season and posted his best performance of the year on this type track. The previous two seasons, he have finished 22nd place. Another 1.5 mile racetrack that he have done very well on recently is Kentucky. Over the past 4 races (dating back to 2011), he have compiled 19.8 average finish, 24.8 average start, 24.3 average running position and 61.2 driver rating. He finished 23rd at Kentucky in 2015. However he had finishes of 20th, 18th and 18th in his previous three starts at the racetrack. He been consistent so far in his limited starts. Atlanta and Kentucky been probably his best two tracks lately.
There also some other tracks he been pretty good, but nothing special though. Michigan is the first track that comes to mind really. Statically speaking from career point of view, Michigan been one of his best racetracks. He finished 42nd last season August's race, but prior to that he been pretty good at the large intermediate racetrack. Over the past 8 races at Michigan (Dating back to 2012), he have compiled 24.7 average finish with 27.0 average running position and 55.6 driver rating. Those aren't great numbers by any means, but to be fair he had two DNFs (August 2015 and August 2012) in those span of races. So let exclude those two races! Without those two DNFs, he would have 20.0 average finish, 27.5 average start, 23.3 average running position and 61.0 driver rating. Very respectable numbers for driver in Casey's equipment. The 2nd intermediate racetrack I want to look deeper at is Cali. Over the past 4 races at California, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 28.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Those are some very solid numbers. He have a better average finish than Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Jamie Mac and Denny Hamlin. Last season he finished 23rd here, but the two previous races ended in 15th place. In 2012, he also finished 23rd. If the trend holds true, then he should have another top 20 (or top 15) in 2016 at Cali. Most weekends we can only expect an top 25 finish from Mears, but as you can see he will often sneak out some top 20 finishes. I think Casey's big issue is finishing races and staying close to the lead lap. If he can stay on the lead lap (or close to it), then he usually going to be a value deal. Especially in salary cap leagues.
Mears was very underrated on the short track last season. His number are much better than people give him credit for in my opinion. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond - 6 races in total), he compiled 23.7 average finish with 22.3 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Okay those aren't great numbers, but let dig deeper into the stats and see how he performed. At Martinsville, he was just awesome and was by far at his best. He compiled 16.0 average finish, 21.0 average start, 18.0 average running positon and 76.9 driver rating. He had finishes of 15th and 17th. You are probably thinking, ''Yeah okay Jeff. That only two races sample. Probably a fluke!'' Oh but it no fluke that Mears was strong at Martinsville in 2015. Minus October 2014 wreck (37th place), he have compiled 19.4 average finish, 26.9 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.2 driver rating over his previous 8 Martinsville starts dating back to 2011. At Richmond, he been less successful. He probably some success at Richmond, but not a whole lot. Last season in 2 races at RIR, he compiled 25.5 average finish, 20.0 average start, 24.0 average running position and 63.2 driver rating. He had finishes of 30th and 21st. Let look deeper in last season fall race at Richmond. In that race, he started 15th, finished 21st, held 19.0 average running position and 73.3 driver rating. By far that been his best race at RIR, since joining Germain Racing. His best finish with Germain Racing came in 2011 with a 17th place finish. In 11 starts with Germain Racing, he have finished 21st or better in 5 of those races. The other 6 finishes on this track have ended in 26th or worse. The final short track is Bristol. I view this as his worst short track of the three. He have struggled here. Last season he compiled 29.5 average finish, 27.5 average start, 25.0 average running position and 57.9 driver rating. Let look in those two races from last season. The first race, he wrecked out of and finished 36th. In the summer race, he started 28th, finished 23rd, held 26.0 average running position and 57.6 driver rating. He wasn't very good at all. In the first race, he actually ran fairly decent. Had 24.0 average running position, despite finishing 23 laps down and out of the race. Think he was running in the high-teen before getting caught up in a wreck. In 2016, I expect him to deliver finishes between 22nd-26th place on short tracks. I think he will perform his best at Martinsville though. I believe that is a place where is a top 20 driver or close to it.
The plates have been a very kind place to Mears the last few seasons. Last season on the plates, he compiled 19.0 average finish, 23.8 average start, 24.8 average running position and 59.1 driver rating. Those are very respectable numbers, however they aren't the eye-popping stats that we saw in 2014 though. Looking deeper in that numbers, he been much more reliable at Daytona than Talladega. In fact, I would call Daytona his best racetrack. Over the past 5 races at Daytona, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 25.0 average start, 20.0 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. His 8.0 average finish is only 2nd to Dale Jr's. In those 5 races, he have notched 4 top 10 finishes. His lone finish outside of the top 10? 11th last summer. Yeah he pretty good at Daytona. On the other hand with Talladega, he have struggled more at. Last season, he had finishes of 31st and 28th. In 2014, he had finishes of 10th and 14th. I wouldn't avoid him at Talladega altogether, but I would be a bit cautious with him though. Overall it hard saying how Mears will do on the plates in 2016. I think it difficult to pinpoint any driver on the plate racetracks. It's so unpredictable! I think he is a very quality sleeper, even at Daytona I think people will be a gun shy about using him.
This was more in depth-Fantasy preview than I normally do, but the point of that was to see you how much value Mears holds. In 2016, you can expect him commonly finish inside the top 25. I think that is his where he will run and finish a lot. However I think there will be several races where he finish inside the top 15 and top 20. I think they will come on the road courses, short flats and Daytona mostly. However I think he will also sneak in some top 20 finishes on the intermediate racetracks. I don't think it will be on a consistent basis, but I do see him having some opportunities though. I expect him to be his worst on the larger flats tracks. I think he will have a hard time finishing inside the top 20 at Pocono and Indy. If he manages three top 25 finishes, then it would be a successful season on the larger flats. Overall I see Mears being a solid fantasy option this upcoming season. He will be most useful in the salary cap leagues and formats that offer positional differential scoring.
**All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
2016 Casey Mears Profile
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Casey Mears will drive the #13 car for Germain Racing again in 2016 and should be a quality top 25 driver on a weekly basis and often will be a threat to steal a top 20. Not many realize this (or remember), but back in 2003 Mears started out his career with CGR. Before moving onto HMS and then a few more teams after that. I think he finally starting to come into his own. Back when he was racing at CGR and HMS, I felt like people had such high standards for him. It really didn't allow him to relax, but at Germain Racing I feel like he much more comfortable and starting to show some potential . Clearly the #13 car isn't great equipment by any means, but these last two seasons he been very productive with 15 Top 20 finishes in each season. When compared to other drivers in similar rides, I would say he is doing heck of a job and doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he have been able to do.
Mears will be at his best on the road courses. He actually started off his racing career (before coming to Nascar) in open wheel racing which probably have been helpful with his success on the road courses so far in his career. Going by the recent average finishes,Watkins Glenn is his best racetrack (not named Daytona). He enters the 2016 season with 8 straight top 20 finishes at this racetrack and have 16.5 average finishing position over the past two seasons, despite having 25.5 average starting position. Over the last 4 seasons at WGI, he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 27.8 average start and 20.3 average running position. It should be noted that all four of those starts came in the 13 car with Germain Racing. In that 4-race span, what impresses me most is how well he been able to finish. Even though he only once qualified better than 26th and that was 22nd in 2014. In basic terms, this is statically Casey's best racetrack and if you are going him then it will be at WGI. At Sonoma, he been very strong as well. Last season's 38th place DNF (mechanical issue) and 2011's 34th place finish remains his lone poor finishes on road courses since joining Germain Racing. From 2012 to 2014 (3 race span), he compiled 14.7 average finish, 17.7 average start, 18.3 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Looking back at last season's race, he started 8th and was running competitively inside the top 10 before an axel broke. His 68.4 driver rating and 18.0 average running position should tell you how strong he was, despite finishing 13 laps down. When looking at numbers, Sonoma is arguably a better track for him than WGI. Statically WGI is his best track, but his in race performance suggests otherwise when comparing the numbers over the past 4 seasons. At Sonoma (over past 4 races), he have 20.5 average finish, 15.3 average start, 18.3 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. At WGI over the past 4 races, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 27.8 average start, 20.3 average running position and 69.4 driver rating. When looking at the in-race numbers, you can see that Casey been slightly better at Sonoma than WGI. He will be a force at both tracks and contending for top 20 finishes, if not top 15 finishes!
Flats will be another type track that Mears will have an opportunity to run respectable at. I don't think it will be as consistent or as strong as the road courses though. I think he will perform better on the short flats than the larger flats. At Phoenix when looking at his finishes. He been a bit inconsistent over the past 4 seasons (8 races), as he have compiled 24.1 average finish, 25.9 average start, 25.9 average running position and 61.2 driver rating. Those are not great numbers, so let look at a more positive trend of races at Phoenix. Over the past three spring races at Phoenix, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 28.2 average start, 24.3 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. His on track overall performance isn't great, but he seems to get solid finishes lately at Phoenix in the spring time. Overall (dating back to 2011), he have finished 6 of the past 10 Phoenix races inside the top 22. New Hampshire is Casey better shorter flat among the two probably. Over the past three races (dating back to September 2014), he have compiled 18.7 average finish, 21.7 average start, 20.7 average running position and 64.6 driver rating. Over that 3-race span at New Hampshire, he have finishes of 18th, 16th and 22nd. Mears was pretty solid on the shorter flats last season. He compiled 19.0 average finish, 22.0 average start, 21.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. I don't think we can expect those type of numbers on a year-to-year basis, but I do believe he is capable of least top 25 finishes on the shorter flats. Personally I think he will contend for top 20 every time he comes to New Hampshire or Phoenix though. He will probably have around 18th-22nd place finish potential.
I think he will struggle more on the larger flats because it requires more horsepower. Pocono will be the better of the two larger flats (Pocono and Indy). When I look at his recent numbers at Pocono, he have some good results and some bad results. Since joining Germain Racing in 2nd half of the 2010 season, he have gotten more bad finishes at Pocono than good. That understandable since the 13 team lacks speed on the faster tracks. Two finishes immediately jump out at me. He have finished 16th and 12th in August 2014 and June 2015. It important to note that, his last both-to-both top 20 finishes before that was in 2007 when he was with HMS. So it speak volume on how much this 13 team have improved over the past few seasons. I think Germain Racing switching from Ford to Chevy been a huge factor as well. Indy he have struggled at most of his career at. In 13 starts, he only have 3 top 20 finishes and probably considered his worst flat track overall. Over the last two seasons, he have compiled 26.5 average finish, 21.5 average start, 28.0 average running position and 50.4 driver rating. Ugly stats overall from the past two seasons, however he did finish 20th at Indy last season. Why is that so important? His best finish with the 13 car (in 4 previous starts) was 27th in 2013. Looking deeper in that race, he had an 20.0 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Statically speaking, that was his best performance since 2006 at Indy when he was still in the 41 car with CGR. On the larger flats in 2015, he had 2 top 20 finishes in 3 races. In 2016, I would expect a finish inside the top 25 with potential to sneak in a top 20. However I wouldn't bank on that. On the larger flats, he will lack the equipment and horsepower to be considered anything beyond top 25 material. I wouldn't rule out top 20 finishes, but it won't be a given though.
Intermediate racetracks will be one of the tougher places for Mears to be consistent and successful at. He will from time to time knock off a top 20 finish or so, but I expect most of his finishes to come from the 22nd-26th place range. In 2015 on all the intermediate racetracks (14 races), he compiled 24.6 average finish, 26.3 average start, 25.8 average running position and 59.1 driver rating. Okay that is a bit unfair because every driver will have some bad races throughout the season. So let's dig deeper into the stats and analysis it! Atlanta is probably his best racetrack non named a road course or Daytona recently. Over the last three seasons, he have compiled 19.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 25.3 average running position and 56.6 driver rating. His average finish (19.7) and average running position (25.3) doesn't really match up. However he finished 15th at Atlanta last season and posted his best performance of the year on this type track. The previous two seasons, he have finished 22nd place. Another 1.5 mile racetrack that he have done very well on recently is Kentucky. Over the past 4 races (dating back to 2011), he have compiled 19.8 average finish, 24.8 average start, 24.3 average running position and 61.2 driver rating. He finished 23rd at Kentucky in 2015. However he had finishes of 20th, 18th and 18th in his previous three starts at the racetrack. He been consistent so far in his limited starts. Atlanta and Kentucky been probably his best two tracks lately.
There also some other tracks he been pretty good, but nothing special though. Michigan is the first track that comes to mind really. Statically speaking from career point of view, Michigan been one of his best racetracks. He finished 42nd last season August's race, but prior to that he been pretty good at the large intermediate racetrack. Over the past 8 races at Michigan (Dating back to 2012), he have compiled 24.7 average finish with 27.0 average running position and 55.6 driver rating. Those aren't great numbers by any means, but to be fair he had two DNFs (August 2015 and August 2012) in those span of races. So let exclude those two races! Without those two DNFs, he would have 20.0 average finish, 27.5 average start, 23.3 average running position and 61.0 driver rating. Very respectable numbers for driver in Casey's equipment. The 2nd intermediate racetrack I want to look deeper at is Cali. Over the past 4 races at California, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 28.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Those are some very solid numbers. He have a better average finish than Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Jamie Mac and Denny Hamlin. Last season he finished 23rd here, but the two previous races ended in 15th place. In 2012, he also finished 23rd. If the trend holds true, then he should have another top 20 (or top 15) in 2016 at Cali. Most weekends we can only expect an top 25 finish from Mears, but as you can see he will often sneak out some top 20 finishes. I think Casey's big issue is finishing races and staying close to the lead lap. If he can stay on the lead lap (or close to it), then he usually going to be a value deal. Especially in salary cap leagues.
Mears was very underrated on the short track last season. His number are much better than people give him credit for in my opinion. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond - 6 races in total), he compiled 23.7 average finish with 22.3 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. Okay those aren't great numbers, but let dig deeper into the stats and see how he performed. At Martinsville, he was just awesome and was by far at his best. He compiled 16.0 average finish, 21.0 average start, 18.0 average running positon and 76.9 driver rating. He had finishes of 15th and 17th. You are probably thinking, ''Yeah okay Jeff. That only two races sample. Probably a fluke!'' Oh but it no fluke that Mears was strong at Martinsville in 2015. Minus October 2014 wreck (37th place), he have compiled 19.4 average finish, 26.9 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.2 driver rating over his previous 8 Martinsville starts dating back to 2011. At Richmond, he been less successful. He probably some success at Richmond, but not a whole lot. Last season in 2 races at RIR, he compiled 25.5 average finish, 20.0 average start, 24.0 average running position and 63.2 driver rating. He had finishes of 30th and 21st. Let look deeper in last season fall race at Richmond. In that race, he started 15th, finished 21st, held 19.0 average running position and 73.3 driver rating. By far that been his best race at RIR, since joining Germain Racing. His best finish with Germain Racing came in 2011 with a 17th place finish. In 11 starts with Germain Racing, he have finished 21st or better in 5 of those races. The other 6 finishes on this track have ended in 26th or worse. The final short track is Bristol. I view this as his worst short track of the three. He have struggled here. Last season he compiled 29.5 average finish, 27.5 average start, 25.0 average running position and 57.9 driver rating. Let look in those two races from last season. The first race, he wrecked out of and finished 36th. In the summer race, he started 28th, finished 23rd, held 26.0 average running position and 57.6 driver rating. He wasn't very good at all. In the first race, he actually ran fairly decent. Had 24.0 average running position, despite finishing 23 laps down and out of the race. Think he was running in the high-teen before getting caught up in a wreck. In 2016, I expect him to deliver finishes between 22nd-26th place on short tracks. I think he will perform his best at Martinsville though. I believe that is a place where is a top 20 driver or close to it.
The plates have been a very kind place to Mears the last few seasons. Last season on the plates, he compiled 19.0 average finish, 23.8 average start, 24.8 average running position and 59.1 driver rating. Those are very respectable numbers, however they aren't the eye-popping stats that we saw in 2014 though. Looking deeper in that numbers, he been much more reliable at Daytona than Talladega. In fact, I would call Daytona his best racetrack. Over the past 5 races at Daytona, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 25.0 average start, 20.0 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. His 8.0 average finish is only 2nd to Dale Jr's. In those 5 races, he have notched 4 top 10 finishes. His lone finish outside of the top 10? 11th last summer. Yeah he pretty good at Daytona. On the other hand with Talladega, he have struggled more at. Last season, he had finishes of 31st and 28th. In 2014, he had finishes of 10th and 14th. I wouldn't avoid him at Talladega altogether, but I would be a bit cautious with him though. Overall it hard saying how Mears will do on the plates in 2016. I think it difficult to pinpoint any driver on the plate racetracks. It's so unpredictable! I think he is a very quality sleeper, even at Daytona I think people will be a gun shy about using him.
This was more in depth-Fantasy preview than I normally do, but the point of that was to see you how much value Mears holds. In 2016, you can expect him commonly finish inside the top 25. I think that is his where he will run and finish a lot. However I think there will be several races where he finish inside the top 15 and top 20. I think they will come on the road courses, short flats and Daytona mostly. However I think he will also sneak in some top 20 finishes on the intermediate racetracks. I don't think it will be on a consistent basis, but I do see him having some opportunities though. I expect him to be his worst on the larger flats tracks. I think he will have a hard time finishing inside the top 20 at Pocono and Indy. If he manages three top 25 finishes, then it would be a successful season on the larger flats. Overall I see Mears being a solid fantasy option this upcoming season. He will be most useful in the salary cap leagues and formats that offer positional differential scoring.
**All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
2016 Casey Mears Profile
Twitter - @JeffNathans