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Ryan Blaney enters 2016 eying Rookie Of The Year and he is my leading candidate, I think he has everything he needs to accomplish this goal. His biggest competition will be of Chase Elliott who will be taking over for Jeff Gordon. When we stack these drivers up, I think Blaney has the upper hand entering the season. I think him running about half of the races last season will give him a big boost early in the season. I think Blaney will have a chance to have a very strong rookie (similar to one Larson had in 2014) season. Last season we saw the potential he had when he could keep his car on the racetrack. These were times when he was a legit top 15 or even top 10 driver. Combine that with full backing from Penske, he could be in for heck of a year!
I fully expect Blaney to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and more specifically I think he will be his best on the 1.5 mile high-speed intermediate racetracks. Last season (when he could race), he usually finished inside the top 20 at the intermediate racetracks. He made 8 starts last season on the 1.5 mile racetracks and 4 times he finished 19th or better. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 15 and one (2nd Kansas race) ended inside the top 10. In the other 4 races, he had issues that caused him to not finish on the lead lap. At the first Texas race, he was running around the top 15 and around the first pit stop he started having engine issues. After the first round of pit stops, he had to go to garage and finished 42nd. In the 2nd Texas race, he blew a tire and hit the wall. To be fair that was a strange race. A lot of drivers blew tires (some had multiple blown tires) in that race. Blaney happen to be one of them who got the bad end of that deal. Finished out of the race in 43rd place. Charlotte was another race that he had a blown engine. He was fast though. Was running close to the top 10 when his engine went up in smoke. He eventually settled for an 42nd place finish. He came back in the fall and finished 14th at Charlotte. At Kansas in 2015, he was impressive where he started 8th, finished 7th and posted best performance of his career at the Cup level on this type track. He held 96.9 driver rating, 10.0 average running position and led 5 laps. I think it very hard to ignore the potential that Ryan Blaney have on the intermediate racetracks for 2016. I believe he will become a force in the years to come with Penske backing him.
Flats are still questionable for Blaney as we don't really have enough data to say he is legit or not, but I was pretty impressed by him at New Hampshire (shorter flat). He was running in the top 10 (I believe around 8th or 9th) before having to pit for loose wheel. His day just went downhill from there. He got penalized for being too fast on pit road which put him another about 2 laps. He actually got both of those laps back later in the event, before having to make a late pit stop. When it all was said and done, he finished 23rd and one lap down! He also have made one start on the larger flat track of Indy. He finished 12th, had 19.0 average running position, started 30th and had 74.2 driver rating. Now to be fair, his performance for that race doesn't really matchup with his 12th place finish, but his poor starting position is probably to blame. Indy is very tough to make passes at, so it probably took him awhile to reach top 15. He spent about 32% of the race inside the top 15 and eventually finished there. Really that is all the data we have to go on right now. So it hard to say what to expect from him honestly. In the lower series, he been quite successful on the flats tracks. He made 2 starts in the Trucks at Pocono and is probably considered his best racetrack. He won a race and finished 5th. He won in his first career start in the racetrack back in 2013. At Phoenix in the trucks, he have made 3 starts. 2 of those 3 starts ended inside the top 5. The other ended inside the top 10. I would expect lower to mid teen finishes on the flats.
Short tracks will be interesting for Blaney. I don't think it will labeled as a strong suit, but he definitely knows his way around them though. I think he will some quality finishes on this track, but I don't know if it will translate to one of his best finishes though. Last season at Bristol (his only short track start), he finished 22nd. But he had a fast car though. In that race, he was running about 13th on lap 52 when he pitted and was caught speeding. That put him way in back of the pack which eventually led to him going laps down fairly early in the event. And at Bristol that usually don't lead to good things. He eventually finished 4 laps down in 22nd after it was all said and done. In the lower series, he have made 4 starts in NXS where he have compiled 3 top 10 finishes (2 top 5 finishes) and have led 7 laps. His won in 2014 at this racetrack in NXS. On the trucks side, he have made 4 additional starts with 3 top 10 finishes (2 top 5s) and winning a race last season. I think Martinsville will be the toughest venue of the three short tracks. Martinsville is a difficult place to master as a young driver, so he may struggle a bit. He made 5 starts in the trucks where had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10 finishes with 7.8 average finish. But I do believe he will have most trouble at this venue of the three short tracks. At Richmond, he made 4 starts in the NXS where had 1 top 5 finish and 4 top 10 finishes with 7.2 average finish. I would say his efforts on short tracks on the lower series would translate to mid-teen finishes at the cup level. 15th-20th place range sounds about right. Maybe a little better depending on his development as a driver.
Road courses are still questionable for Ryan Blaney. I think he will have some problems on this type racetrack more than most tracks that we visit in 2016. The 21 team haven't raced on a road course in like forever, so that would put Ryan Blaney at a major disadvantage in my opinion. He doesn't have the experience at the road courses either. Remember he ran a limited schedule in all three series in 2015 and only made one road course start (2nd- Elk Lake), of course that was in top tier equipment against weaker competition. He will be in lesser equipment againist tougher competition. I don't really know what to expect from him, but I don't expect anything beyond a high teen finish though. It more to do with he is unproven on this type racetrack. So I would rather play the wait and see approach with Blaney on the road courses.
Plate Tracks will be a track where Blaney should be able to run strong at, but like most drivers I don't know if he will get consistent finishes at Daytona and Talladega. He finished 4th last spring at Talladega, but he also had two DNFs at this type track where he couldn't finish the race. So it really a toss up with Blaney. He talented no doubt, but there only a few drivers who we can count on at the plate tracks. Blaney isn't one of those yet. He could be in the future. But for 2016, I am not banking on anything special out of him. I would treat this as an average race for Ryan Blaney and hope that he pull off performances like he did last spring at Talladega.
Ryan Blaney is a young talented driver in quality equipment with backing from Penske, so there no reason why he cannot and won't win ROTY in my opinion. Like his competition, I expect inconsistent finishes at times. I think he will be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and at his worst on the road course due to lack of experience and team. He will be a low teen driver on the flats in 2016 and contend for top 15 most weekends. Top 20 if he's off. On short tracks, I think he will be a mid teen driver. I expect his best efforts to come on Bristol and struggle more so at Martinsville. The plates will be where I expect mix results at really. I could see him finishing up front, but I also could see him wrecking out or blowing up. Blaney's big problem in 2015 was not finishing out races, I think he needs to do much better job of that in 2016. It was obvious that he was fast almost every time he was on the track, so it just about putting it all together. On your average race weekend, I would expect Blaney to start in the mid to high teens and finish in the lower teens. There will be races where he'll wreck out or run poorly and finish outside of the top 20, but I think they will be far in between. I also believe Blaney will knock out some top 10 and maybe top 5 finishes, which will set him apart in the ROTY battle ultimately!
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Ryan Blaney enters 2016 eying Rookie Of The Year and he is my leading candidate, I think he has everything he needs to accomplish this goal. His biggest competition will be of Chase Elliott who will be taking over for Jeff Gordon. When we stack these drivers up, I think Blaney has the upper hand entering the season. I think him running about half of the races last season will give him a big boost early in the season. I think Blaney will have a chance to have a very strong rookie (similar to one Larson had in 2014) season. Last season we saw the potential he had when he could keep his car on the racetrack. These were times when he was a legit top 15 or even top 10 driver. Combine that with full backing from Penske, he could be in for heck of a year!
I fully expect Blaney to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and more specifically I think he will be his best on the 1.5 mile high-speed intermediate racetracks. Last season (when he could race), he usually finished inside the top 20 at the intermediate racetracks. He made 8 starts last season on the 1.5 mile racetracks and 4 times he finished 19th or better. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 15 and one (2nd Kansas race) ended inside the top 10. In the other 4 races, he had issues that caused him to not finish on the lead lap. At the first Texas race, he was running around the top 15 and around the first pit stop he started having engine issues. After the first round of pit stops, he had to go to garage and finished 42nd. In the 2nd Texas race, he blew a tire and hit the wall. To be fair that was a strange race. A lot of drivers blew tires (some had multiple blown tires) in that race. Blaney happen to be one of them who got the bad end of that deal. Finished out of the race in 43rd place. Charlotte was another race that he had a blown engine. He was fast though. Was running close to the top 10 when his engine went up in smoke. He eventually settled for an 42nd place finish. He came back in the fall and finished 14th at Charlotte. At Kansas in 2015, he was impressive where he started 8th, finished 7th and posted best performance of his career at the Cup level on this type track. He held 96.9 driver rating, 10.0 average running position and led 5 laps. I think it very hard to ignore the potential that Ryan Blaney have on the intermediate racetracks for 2016. I believe he will become a force in the years to come with Penske backing him.
Flats are still questionable for Blaney as we don't really have enough data to say he is legit or not, but I was pretty impressed by him at New Hampshire (shorter flat). He was running in the top 10 (I believe around 8th or 9th) before having to pit for loose wheel. His day just went downhill from there. He got penalized for being too fast on pit road which put him another about 2 laps. He actually got both of those laps back later in the event, before having to make a late pit stop. When it all was said and done, he finished 23rd and one lap down! He also have made one start on the larger flat track of Indy. He finished 12th, had 19.0 average running position, started 30th and had 74.2 driver rating. Now to be fair, his performance for that race doesn't really matchup with his 12th place finish, but his poor starting position is probably to blame. Indy is very tough to make passes at, so it probably took him awhile to reach top 15. He spent about 32% of the race inside the top 15 and eventually finished there. Really that is all the data we have to go on right now. So it hard to say what to expect from him honestly. In the lower series, he been quite successful on the flats tracks. He made 2 starts in the Trucks at Pocono and is probably considered his best racetrack. He won a race and finished 5th. He won in his first career start in the racetrack back in 2013. At Phoenix in the trucks, he have made 3 starts. 2 of those 3 starts ended inside the top 5. The other ended inside the top 10. I would expect lower to mid teen finishes on the flats.
Short tracks will be interesting for Blaney. I don't think it will labeled as a strong suit, but he definitely knows his way around them though. I think he will some quality finishes on this track, but I don't know if it will translate to one of his best finishes though. Last season at Bristol (his only short track start), he finished 22nd. But he had a fast car though. In that race, he was running about 13th on lap 52 when he pitted and was caught speeding. That put him way in back of the pack which eventually led to him going laps down fairly early in the event. And at Bristol that usually don't lead to good things. He eventually finished 4 laps down in 22nd after it was all said and done. In the lower series, he have made 4 starts in NXS where he have compiled 3 top 10 finishes (2 top 5 finishes) and have led 7 laps. His won in 2014 at this racetrack in NXS. On the trucks side, he have made 4 additional starts with 3 top 10 finishes (2 top 5s) and winning a race last season. I think Martinsville will be the toughest venue of the three short tracks. Martinsville is a difficult place to master as a young driver, so he may struggle a bit. He made 5 starts in the trucks where had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10 finishes with 7.8 average finish. But I do believe he will have most trouble at this venue of the three short tracks. At Richmond, he made 4 starts in the NXS where had 1 top 5 finish and 4 top 10 finishes with 7.2 average finish. I would say his efforts on short tracks on the lower series would translate to mid-teen finishes at the cup level. 15th-20th place range sounds about right. Maybe a little better depending on his development as a driver.
Road courses are still questionable for Ryan Blaney. I think he will have some problems on this type racetrack more than most tracks that we visit in 2016. The 21 team haven't raced on a road course in like forever, so that would put Ryan Blaney at a major disadvantage in my opinion. He doesn't have the experience at the road courses either. Remember he ran a limited schedule in all three series in 2015 and only made one road course start (2nd- Elk Lake), of course that was in top tier equipment against weaker competition. He will be in lesser equipment againist tougher competition. I don't really know what to expect from him, but I don't expect anything beyond a high teen finish though. It more to do with he is unproven on this type racetrack. So I would rather play the wait and see approach with Blaney on the road courses.
Plate Tracks will be a track where Blaney should be able to run strong at, but like most drivers I don't know if he will get consistent finishes at Daytona and Talladega. He finished 4th last spring at Talladega, but he also had two DNFs at this type track where he couldn't finish the race. So it really a toss up with Blaney. He talented no doubt, but there only a few drivers who we can count on at the plate tracks. Blaney isn't one of those yet. He could be in the future. But for 2016, I am not banking on anything special out of him. I would treat this as an average race for Ryan Blaney and hope that he pull off performances like he did last spring at Talladega.
Ryan Blaney is a young talented driver in quality equipment with backing from Penske, so there no reason why he cannot and won't win ROTY in my opinion. Like his competition, I expect inconsistent finishes at times. I think he will be at his best on the intermediate racetracks and at his worst on the road course due to lack of experience and team. He will be a low teen driver on the flats in 2016 and contend for top 15 most weekends. Top 20 if he's off. On short tracks, I think he will be a mid teen driver. I expect his best efforts to come on Bristol and struggle more so at Martinsville. The plates will be where I expect mix results at really. I could see him finishing up front, but I also could see him wrecking out or blowing up. Blaney's big problem in 2015 was not finishing out races, I think he needs to do much better job of that in 2016. It was obvious that he was fast almost every time he was on the track, so it just about putting it all together. On your average race weekend, I would expect Blaney to start in the mid to high teens and finish in the lower teens. There will be races where he'll wreck out or run poorly and finish outside of the top 20, but I think they will be far in between. I also believe Blaney will knock out some top 10 and maybe top 5 finishes, which will set him apart in the ROTY battle ultimately!
Twitter - @JeffNathans