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Bristol use to be one of my favorite racetracks, but that was before the repave. I am not a fan of new Bristol honestly. Least not as much I enjoyed old Bristol. This week, we will hear a lot of ''New Bristol'' and ''Old Bristol''. Basically just referring to before and after the repave. That pretty much it overall. I think we are in a bit of a crazy race this weekend. Bristol in recent seasons have been a little crazy, especially the spring races for some reason. So keep a look out for some drivers under the radar, it could turn into an advantage if you play your cards right.
**For those that are interested, to go along with the fantasy preview, I put together this week's Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (
Click here).
Preview -
1-Jamie Mac: CGR placed both of their cars inside the top 15 for the first time this season last weekend at Texas and now looks to keep the momentum going. I think CGR will run their strongest on the non-intermediate racetracks, as the aero package have less of an impact. A good example would be Larson at Martinsville. Obviously that doesn't always translate, since Bristol is completely different track. He been good recently at Bristol. Over the past 3 Bristol races, he have complied 11.0 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He have finishes of 8th, 11th and 14th in that span. He was running top 5 in Spring 2014 race (at Bristol), but Harvick wrecked (mechanical failure) with 20 laps to go and JMac was caught up in it! But otherwise, JMac been one of the most trustworthy fantasy options in the field. He been very good here for awhile too. Over the past 15 races (dating back to 2008 season), he have managed 10 Top 14 finishes. Overall 9 of those 10 Top 14 finishes have resulted in top 12 finishes. Pretty impressive, since that data have mix of ''New Bristol'' and ''Old Bristol'' in it. I also like how consistent JMac have been this season. Outside of Martinsville, he have only one finish worse than 17th place and no finish worse than 21st. Not great by any means, but still pretty good considering CGR been off this season overall.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski just looked off at Texas, actually both of the Penske cars did. Well Logano did until late in the race, before he got his car fixed up. Keselowski should be able to rebound nicely at Bristol though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. He have ran better than that though. His 35th place finish in 2014 really hurts his numbers overall. He haven't been great, but still pretty respectfully though. Over the past 6 Bristol races, he have knocked off 4 Top 14 finishes. With 3 of those 4 finishes ending inside the top 6. Including 2 of the past 3 Bristol races overall. Keselowski have had a up and down season so far, but I think he starts to turn it around this weekend at Bristol. I have higher hopes for the driver of the 2 car than most do!
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon wrecking at Texas was a heartbreaker! He was running so good too, up until that point. I think he will continue running well at Bristol too. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races at Bristol inside the top 13. His best career finish was 10th and that was also his best-career performance as well. He was running inside the top 5, before he had to pit for fuel. While that was his best career performance, I would also like to point out that was a bit of a crazy race. Where several top-tier drivers were taken out throughout the event. So while it is true Dillon was strong in that race, I would also try to remember that. However based on this season's performance, I wouldn't worry about that too much though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is coming off back-to-back disappointing finishes at Martinsville and Texas. Even though, he ran much better for major of both races. Disappointment have been a common theme for Harvick at Bristol in recent races as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.5 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. Harvick have been much better than his 22.5 average finish indicates for those that haven't already figured that out! In March 2014, he was running strongly inside the top 5. However with about 20 laps to go, he had a mechanical failure that part him hard into the wall. That following August, he had another very strong car for start of the race. He probably would have led much more in that event. However he got a considerably amount of damage after wrecking Denny Hamlin. His car was never the same after that honestly. He led 184 laps last spring, but once again found trouble and finished like 38th. He finally found some luck last fall with an 2nd place finish. However it was probably his weakest performance at Bristol since joining SHR. With only an 108.8 driver rating. 3rd-lowest over previous two seasons. Harvick will likely be overlooked, so I will definitely have him on my fantasy radar entering the weekend!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne finally deliever at Texas for the first time since Vegas, Kahne finished inside the top 15. Once again it was a top 10 finish though. So since Atlanta, he have either finished inside the top 10 or outside of the top 20. This guy have no in between! I have a feeling that is type of outcome, we are looking for this weekend. Over the past 4 Bristol races, he have compiled 24.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. He have good at Bristol since joining HMS. In 7 career starts in the #5 car (excluding his debut in Spring 2012), he have posted 5 Top 16 finishes. Including 4 of those 5 finishes ending inside the top 9. However he have struggled lately to finish out races. With 2 of the past 3 races ending outside the top 30. I think Kahne was once one of the better drivers in the series at Bristol, however I don't think that is the case anymore. He knows his way around this place, but I don't see him being the fantasy option he was in 2012 and 2013 though.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin started the season off by winning the Daytona 500, then his rollercoster season got under way. With poor performances at Atlanta and Vegas (barely a top 15 or top 20 driver). Then he fired back with a pair of 3rd place finishes at Phoenix and Cali. Then of course he followed that up with a wreck at Martinsville and another piss-poor teen performance at Texas! Hamlin love keeping us guessing, doesn't he? Well that doesn't work on me, I am not touching Mr. Hamlin until he shows some consistency. And his numbers at Bristol doesn't do him any favors either. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.8 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 86.5 driver rating. He been completely boom or bust here since 2012. Over the past 8 Bristol races, he have managed 5 finishes outside of the top 20, with his remaining 3 finishes resulting inside the top 6. However he have won 3 of the previous 5 pole rewards here. Including 5 of the past 6 races resulting in a top 5 starting position. Before that 6-race span, he have never started better than 6th place in his entire Cup career at Bristol!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky had such a great run going at Texas and then he got caught up in the Austin Dillon's spin. That was straight up disappointing to say the least! However now goes to one of the best racetracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 Bristol races, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. He have ran very well here recently. He have never finished worse than 21st at this racetrack. Even better, he have posted 5 Top 18 finishes in 6 starts. Including 3 Top 10 finishes in his past 4 starts. He finished 21st last summer, but he was running mid-teens before spinning. He was strong in 2014 spring race and agrubly had his best race ever at Bristol and finished 2nd. He posted career-high 98.2 driver rating and 10.0 average running position. He been pretty good in recent races with finishes of 4th in summer of 2014 and 6th in last spring's event. But his overall performance just wasn't quite as good. He started 21st in summer 2014 race, finished 4th, posted 17.0 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. He lucked into that 6 place finish based on his overall performance. He didn't have a 6th place car for that event. He spent only about little over 1/4 (26% to be exact) of the race inside the top 15. He was better in last spring's race though. He finished 4th last spring and posted 14.0 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. He was pretty legit overall in that race. He spent 71% of the race inside the top 15, that right there says a lot about his performance. Once he made his way up into the top 15, he pretty much stayed there.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is red hot this season! Back-to-back wins, on top of 6 Top 5 finishes in 7 races this season. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Harvick to start last season, with all of the top 5 finishes to start the year. What makes Kyle so much better this year than in previous seasons is Crew Chief Steve Adams. I was so excited when he was named as Kyle's CC last off-season, I thought it would do wonders for his cup career. Well we have seen the results of it! Didn't isn't a track that Kyle cannot run well at and I don't think Bristol is no difference. Kyle was much better at ''Old Bristol'' than ''New Bristol'', but I think it more to do with bad luck than lack of performance though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 98.4 driver rating. He led over 1/4 of last season's event (192 of 500 laps), before getting a huge penalty late in the race. He actually went a lap down there for awhile and rallied to an 8th place. In spring 2014, he was very strong but had a lot of issues during the race which eventually led to an 29th place finish. Believe he even got into the wall that caused him to get significant damage. It was even worse in summer 2014 race. He got penalized in the race and then had a huge argument with then crew chief Dave Rogers. He eventually was taken out in a late race incident. Not that it really mattered at that point, since he was running mid-pack already. I think he is gonna be very tough to beat at Bristol, I still consider this one of his best racetracks' on the schedule.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards let one slip away at Texas with a disappointing 7th place finish. He was extremely strong for that event, but a flat tire costed him the race. Now he turns his attention to Bristol. This have been a very kind racetrack to him over the years. He won here three times already at Brstiol and looks to make it a 4th time. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 109.9 driver rating. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 7 at Bristol and probably should have won 2013 fall race in the #99 car (final Bristol race with RFR). He led 119 of 387 laps before his engine blew up while running up front. Edwards should be a heavy contender in Sunday's race. Not only have Edwards ran well here recently, he have also ran very well this season. So don't be shocked if Edwards have one of the best cars this week.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been a stud since joining JGR, but he also been a cursed man in 2016. He have had least one problem in every race this season, minus the Phoenix race. He simply cannot catch a break once so ever. However I do believe he will eventually get on the right track. I think him having a down year is a great thing for his fantasy value at Bristol. I think more people will avoid him. You feeling gambling, then Kenseth is your man. Even though you may not like the results you get in the end. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 106.1 driver rating. Bristol have always been a great racetrack for Kenseth and that should continue this weekend. He have finished 3 of the past 5 Bristol races inside the top 3. Overall 9 of the past 13 races have ended inside the top 10. I think Kenseth will be selected by more players this weekend than usual in 2016, but definitely less than usually expected at Bristol though.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney's rookie season is off to a rocky start with inconsistent finishes to start the first 7 races. He seems to be at his worst on the worn-out racetracks though. Bristol should be a good place for him, as he have found success here in the lower series in the past. There isn't really a lot to say about Blaney, he's a very good driver with potential to run inside the top 10 or top 15 on any given weekend. I think we can say this about him anytime he's behind the wheel of the No.21 car. He have made one start at Bristol in a cup car and that was last summer. He started and finished 22nd. He ended that race 4 laps down, it was a pretty race for him. However it wasn't a bad race either, considering he have never raced at Bristol in the Cup series before. I think Blaney can finish inside the top 20 this Sunday. Maybe a little better towards the top 15. But I'd rather play the wait and see how practice goes card on him though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano wasn't overly impressive for 3/4 of the Texas race, however that 22 team fixed him up when it counted most and finished 3rd. Now he goes to one of his better tracks. Logano have been very good here recently. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 101.4 driver rating. He have 4 Top 8 finishes in his past 8 races here and 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races here. However you probably aren't going to like the latest trends here though. Especially if you are putting stock into Logano this weekend. Over the past 4 Spring races (April/March races), Logano have finished 16th or worse every single time. In fact, he have NEVER finished better than 16th in a spring race at Bristol. Ouch! The past 4 summer races? 8th or better every single time, including 2 wins in the past 2 summer races. Logano is probably a top 5 to top 10 driver headed into the weekend in my book!
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have been a stud this season on the intermediate racetracks and should be fine on the short tracks. However I think he have more work to do on them, before he becomes a force on them like he's on these bigger and faster tracks though. Elliott should be fine at Bristol and most likely knock out at top 20 finish. Headed into the season, I thought this would be a weak area for him and Martinsville kinda backed up that. With experience, he will become better. So I am playing the wait and see game, however if he runs well here. I will definitely consider him for the second time around. I am kinda excited to see what he brings to the table this weekend honestly.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is having a pretty bad season so far and honestly I am kinda surprised. He never been a top tier driver, but he usually runs top 12 or so often early in the season. In 7 races this season, he have only one finish inside the top 14 and that was 8th at Martinsville. However he always been very good at Bristol. Over the past 10 races (all since joining RCR), he have posted 7 Top 11 finishes in those 10 races. Including 6 Top 10 finishes in 10 races this season. He have a great record here recently, however I don't really trust him too much. Headed into the weekend, he is probably a top 20 driver with top 15 upside.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch just doesn't seem to have that spark he had last season. Sure he running top 10 each and every week, but he isn't performing like he was last season. That hurts his fantasy value overall. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 17.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. He have finished 15th or better in three straight races at Bristol. Including an 5th place run in summer 2014 race. However that remain only one of three top 5 finishes since the 2010 season. Even though he have managed 8 Top 15 finishes in that 12 race span, he haven't found the success of his early Bristol years. Over a 9-race span from 2002 to 2006, he won 5 times at this racetrack. He is far removed from elite status at the venue, but he still can serve as a solid fantasy option. He is a easy top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is finally starting to put together some runs in 2016, with 3 Top 14 finishes in the past 4 races with an 14th place finish at Texas. He should continue to find success this weekend at Bristol. I consider this as one of his best racetracks as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. He been better here than the numbers show though. He had a bad race last summer at Bristol. He was running very competitively until he got into the wall multiple times, before killing the car completely after 356 laps. Before last's summer 41st place finish, he have posted 3 Top 12 finishes in his first three starts at the track. He was very good last spring and led 90 laps. That is arguably his best-second best Cup performance to date. His numbers in two spring races actually stand out a lot honestly. With 8.5 average finish, 8.5 average running position and 109.3 driver rating. All those numbers ranked up near the top in the series. Obviously it's a short-simple size and probably invalid, but that's still nice to see from him. I think some of Larson's best runs this season will be on the non-intermediate racetracks and Bristol is one of them that I expect least a top 10 finish!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is coming off another top 5 finish at Texas and looks to keep the momentum going at Bristol. Johnson have been pretty good here, but never great throughout his career. However he have turned the corner recently and been one of the most productive drivers. Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have compiled 7.3 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. He have knocked off 3 straight Top 4 finishes. Overall he have 10 Top 9 finishes over his past 14 races. Bristol have been a good place for Johnson lately and I honestly think people overlook him because he isn't the first name that comes up. Facts remains, he have been pretty good here, just like he is everywhere else.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex had the car to beat at Texas, but much like 2013 event he let another Texas win slip through his grasp. He still finished 6th last Saturday night, but it could've been much better though. He been pretty bad at Bristol lately. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 28.3 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. Bristol have not been very kind to Mr. Truex with 5 straight races with 5 straight finishes of 20th or worse. Truex have not found much success at all and honestly I don't think he will find much more on Sunday. I think his upside is probably a top 10 finish. When looking at his record here, he have only managed two career top 10 finishes, of course both of those ended inside the top 3. Not very comforting with those type of numbers. Even though past history means absolutely shit to some drivers. Regardless, I just don't think Truex will be a top 5 driver at Bristol. In most games, when we use Truex we are expecting top tier finish and performance. I just don't see that happening with him!
88-Dale Jr: I like Dale Jr at Bristol, he haven't gotten a standout finish in awhile. But he been like that for most of his career. He only have one career win and 7 Top 5 finishes in 32 career races. But 27 of his past 29 races at this racetrack have ended inside the top 18. That's ridiculous to be a consistent force at Bristol like that. He haven't always finished inside the top 10, but with the way he running this season, I don't think it matter all too much. Dale will eventually win a race this season. It will likely come at Talladega or Daytona, but I wouldn't rule out anywhere. That 88 team have proven, they can run well at any racetrack. I think Dale is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend like usual. He may not have that car contending at start of first practice, but Greg and the boys will have him fixed up by race time I am sure.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
