Wednesday, February 01, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Joey Logano

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My fellow Timerssports writer, Jeff Nathans picked Kyle Busch to win the championship. It is hard to disagree with that pick. Rowdy is in my top 3, but I am going with another impressive wheelman. Maybe you heard of him? His name is Joey Logano. Young, talented and fearless can best describe Joey. On of top of that, he is in my opinion the best qualifier in the series. He does a better job of qualifying up front and turning them into results than arguably anybody else. And over the past 3 seasons, he is tied for the 2nd-most wins.

Intermediate tracks 

Logano's strongest type of track since joining Penske been his ability to run extremely well on all forms of intermediate tracks. Almost anytime we at this type of track, we can count on him to be a top 5 fantasy pick. Does he always deliver? No, but most of time he is right there in mix of things for the win. Cannot ask for much more than that. Michigan is probably his best intermediate track. In his past 7 races at Michigan, he's finished four of them inside the top 5. In his last 5 races at the track, he's compiled the best average finish (5.2), best average running position (7.0), best driver rating (117.5), most laps led (255) and most fast laps (98). In every category, he's ranked first. In his last 5 races at Michigan, he's finished 5th or better in 3 races. Since joining Penske (in 2013 - 8 races), he has posted 8 straight Top 10 finishes. He's led in 7 of 8 races, too. Statistically speaking, he's been the best driver since 2013 at Michigan. He's ranked first in wins (2) , top 10 finishes (8) , average starting position (5.1), average finish (5.4), average running position (6.4), driver rating (118.9), laps led (356) and laps inside the top 15 (92%). Also ranked 2nd in top 5 finish (4) and fast laps (132).

Other good intermediate tracks for Joey? Well, there are quite few of them. I cannot think of one track that Joey hasn't ran well. Of course, you can say that about any top driver though. Still, I would say Kansas is his second-best track. After that, Texas, Vegas and Darlington are his stand-out tracks. Kansas and Texas are undervalued tracks at the moment because he has one poor finish at both of those tracks last seasons. Even though, he has been a beast at both tracks over the past couple seasons. So let's take a look at both Texas and Kansas, so we can see exactly how good he's been.

Texas is a great track for Logano! He's ran very well at this place with the #22 team.  In 8 races with Penske, he has proven he's an elite option here. In those 8 races, he's finished 5th or better in 6 races. He's finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 races here. Also, he's a former winner too. Another thing to love about him at Texas? He's never finished worse than 5th in the spring race. His last four finishes in the spring? 3rd, 4th, 1st and 5th. What's else is there to say? I don't know, Joey is a stud at Texas! Don't judge him based off his 12.2 average finish in last four races, because it will likely be a painful regret.

Kansas is a lot like Texas for Joey, but he's even better. If you take his last 7 races at Kansas into consideration, you could say it is his best track. In his last 6 races (excluding spring 2016 race), he's posted 3.0 average finish, 4.8 average running position and 125.0 driver rating. The only driver that been even comparable during that run is Kevin Harvick. For good reason, too. In his past 7 races overall, he's finished 6 of 7 races in 5th or better. Yes, 6 top 5 finishes in just his last 7 races at Kansas. In his last 5 races, Joey has posted 3 Top 3 finishes. 2 of those ended in wins. I love his October's race trends. In his past 4 fall's race at Kansas, Joey has posted 4 straight Top 4 finishes. His last three finishes in the October's races: 3rd, 1st, 1st. He's a cold-blooded killer at this place!

Short Flat tracks 

Joey Logano is vastly underrated on the short flat tracks in general. He isn't bad one any of them, but never get credited for being a well-rounded driver. Let's look at him on New Hampshire. His numbers a pretty good at this place over the past couple seasons. Over his last 5 races at New Hampshire, he's posted 4 Top 4 finishes. His lone non-top 5 finish is 11th. For whatever reason, he was off in both races last season. But still got the finishes though. He's finished 11th and 4th in 2016.

I would call Phoenix his best short flat track, honestly. Logano been on it over his last 7 races here. In that time period (excluding Spring 2016 race last year), he's posted 2nd-best average finish (5.2), best-average start (4.8), 2nd-best average running position (5.8), 2nd-most laps led (214), 3rd-most fast laps (112) and 2nd-best driver rating (115.9). Also, he's one of three drivers to win over the past three seasons at Phoenix. Logano has been the best driver, not named Kevin Harvick. And if Kevin for some reason regresses at Phoenix, guess who is laying and waiting? That guy in the #22 Ford is clicking his chops. I love Joey at Phoenix!

Richmond is another undervalued track for Joey Logano! The Penske Fords been very strong at this place over the past couple seasons and expectations should remain high in 2017. In 8 race with the #22 team, Joey has posted 7 top 10 finishes. In his past 6 races, he's finished 6th or better in four races. Currently, he's on an 6-race Top 10 streak at Richmond. He had good races in 2016 at Richmond, but I wouldn't call it phenomenal though. Finished 8th and 10th, but wasn't really out of this world though. He's struggled somewhat in terms of performance on the short flats tracks. I don't know why, but he did win at Phoenix at end of the year. That something, right? Regardless, over the past three seasons, he hasn't had many ''bad'' races. Most of his finishes ended inside the top 10. All but two in last three seasons. And one of them, he was wrecked by a field-filler while leading. Folks, that's insane consistency! 

Short tracks 

Well, already took a look at the short flat tracks, so let's keep going with the short tracks. Bristol and Martinsville are very good tracks for Joey. He's good on both, but I would say that Bristol is the track I would prefer him on. Very few drivers been consistent at Bristol over the past couple seasons, but Joey is a rare exception to that rule. In his last 5 races at Bristol (excluding April 2015 race - he wrecked on lap with teammate Keselowski; April 2014 race - had power steering issues), he's posted 5.4 average finish, 5.8 average start, 294 laps led, 112.8 driver rating and 9.8 average running position. Based on numbers, he's a top two driver since joining Penske.

Martinsville is another great track for Joey, he's underrated here for vast number of reasons. If you look at his average finish over the past few seasons, you say he's sucks at Martinsville. But you have to take into consideration he was wrecked in November 2015. Remember that rivalry with Matt Kenseth? Yeah, that hurt him a lot here. In his last 5 races (excluding November 2015), he's posted series-best average start (1.8), series-best average finish (6.4), 3rd-best average running position (7.8) and 3rd-best driver rating (108.9). As you can see, he's a top 3 driver in all of the major stat categories. An amazing stat about him is his starting position. He's a machine here, when it comes to starting up front. Entering 2017, he has 5 straight races with starting 1st or 2nd at Martinsville. 6 straight Martinsville races, with starting 3rd or better.

Large Flat tracks 

Logano been good at both Pocono and Indy, but I would prefer him at Pocono. He had a couple bad races recently, but over been solid at this place though. Over the past two seasons, Pocono is ranked 22nd in average finish. Don't be fooled by the most ''overrated'' stat in nascar. Average finish is a useless stat, if you don't dig deeper and figure the factors. And what do you know, 2 of his last 3 Pocono resulted in ''misleading'' finishes for Joey. You think that had a major impact on his final finish position? You bet your ass it did. In August 2016 (last season's race), he was very strong. He had the car to beat, but got involved in a wreck with Elliott. In August 2015, he had the car to beat once again. Dominant car that day, but ran out of fuel with a few laps to go. Like I said, average finish is useless, if you don't do some digging. In his recent 4 non-troublesome races at Pocono, he has finishes of 5th,4th,3rd and 7th. In his last 8 races at Pocono, he's finished 10th or better five times.

Indy been a great track for Joey! In his first 4 starts (all with JGR), he's never finished better than 9th. In his last 4 starts (all with Penske), he's never finished worse than 8th. That should tell you a lot, right there! In his last three starts, he has posted 3 straight finishes of 7th or better. In that time period, Joey has posted 2 Top 5 finishes. In 2014 and 2015. He's also led a lap in each of his last four races at Indy for the #22 team. I don't know what else to say about him at the large flat tracks, honestly. As you can see, he's great on them!

Road Courses 

Logano is very underrated on the road courses, he's been good since joining the #22 team. Both ranked as top 5 tracks over the past couple seasons. Watkins Glenn is one of his best tracks for his entire career. In his last 6 races (since his JGR days in 2010), he's posted 5 top 7 finishes in last 6 races. He's been extremely strong at Watkins Glenn over the last two seasons, more specifically. He's finished 1st and 2nd in the last two seasons. Sonoma is another great track for him for his entire career. In his last 6 races (back to 2010), he's finished 11th or better in 5 of 6 races. In 4 races with #22 team, he's finished 11th or better in three races. In the last two seasons, he's finished inside the top 5 in both races. Overall, he's has 4 straight Top 5 finishes on the road courses!

Plate Tracks 

I am not really a fan of Logano at the plate races. He has proven, he can get the job done. But, it seems to be hit or miss with him though. At Talladega, he's won 2 of the last three races. Great, but 5 of his last 9 races ended in 25th or worse. And those 2 wins are his lone top 10 finishes, too in his last 11 races here. Not a good sign at all. Could he be turning the table on his record like Hamlin did in recent sesons? Sure, but we are basing it on two ''great'' races. I would rather take my shot at Daytona, honestly. He's more proven in terms of his finishes, in my opinion. In his last 6 races, he's finished 11th or better four times. In last 4 races, he's posted 3 Top 6 finishes. In that 4-race time period, he's posted 8.3 average finish, 14.8 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Those kind of numbers makes him a top 5 pick, based off numbers. He will be good on the plate tracks and will have the ponetial to win. However, I am not convinced we can trust him yet. I would go with about 6 or 7 other drivers. With that said, he is getting very close. Another good year and he has my vote.

**Stats from Driver Averages and Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet

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