Wednesday, February 01, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kevin Harvick

Welcome to TimersSports

There are a lot of people concerned about SHR switching over to Ford here in 2017. And I agree, there are some concerns about them. Considering they decided not to start building their new 2017 cars until the 2016 season was complete. Is that worrisome? Sure, but if anything it will affect start of the season. I highly doubt we see it affect their entire season. Harvick been a bad man since joining the #4 team. Ford has great stuff that will allow Harvick to keep up the good results. I am not too worried about Harvick in 2017, I still have very high expectations for him overall.

Obviously the intermediate tracks are where you want to use him. It is no secret that Kevin Harvick been the man to beat on the 1.5 mile tracks over the past three seasons. However, it is quite difficult to say what track is his best though. 7 of his top 10 tracks (over the past two seasons) are considered some type of an intermediate track. Like I said, very tough to say what tracks are his best. With that said, it is more of a personal preference when comes to picking at his ''top tracks''. Personally, I would say Texas, Kansas and Michigan are his top 3 tracks. You could add Darlington, Vegas, Cali, Homestead and Atlanta to that list. Really any intermediate on the schedule, Harvick will likely have top 5 potential.

I think (in my opinion) Michigan is Kevin's best track. There are many great tracks for him, but Harvick been straight impressive at Michigan over the past 4 years honestly. Over his past 8 at Michigan, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. In that 8-race span, he has compiled five 2nd-place finishes. The latest one coming in August 2015. He's currently has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes at Michigan. He's swept the top 5 in last season's races. Not much else to say about him at Michigan honestly. His second-best intermediate track (in my opinion) is Kansas. He's been amazing at Kansas recently! Over his past 7 races at Kansas, he has compiled 5 finishes of 2nd or better. Yes, you saw right. In 2016, he had finishes of 1st and 2nd. He's won the fall's race there last season, after leading 74 laps. While, he has finished 1st or 2nd in 3 of the past 4 races at Kansas. I honestly don't know how you can not rank this place inside his top 3 tracks on intermediate tracks.

After Michigan and Kansas, I think you could make a case for him at 4 or 5 tracks as his third-best track. I would say Texas because simply there's more data to go on with visiting it twice per year with the #4 team. Homestead, Cali and Darlington are neck and neck after that. On pure stats, they are all better tracks for Kevin than Texas, but again less data to go on, too. In fantasy nascar, I prefer to have data to fall back on. Harder to judge tracks that we visit once per year. Well, sometimes it is. Sometimes it is better, there is only one visit. Just depends what's your view point is.

Shorter flats should be a great type of track for Kevin Harvick in 2017. Let's start with the obvious track of Phoenix. Yes, we all are aware how great of track it has been lately for him. Over his past 10 races, he has compiled 9 Top 4 finishes. In that span of races, he has compiled 8 Top 2 finishes. Including 6 wins over his past 9 races at Phoenix. Just unbelievable. From November 2013 to March 2016 (6 races), he has a driver rating above 140 in every single race. While leading 139 or more laps in 5 of those 6 races. He's struggled last fall though. Finished 4th, led 0 laps and posted a driver rating below 100.0 for the first time in 11 races at Phoenix. I think it could had been the #4 missed the setup, the competition stepped up or SHR just didn't have the speed like the last couple season. It could been any of those, but personally I think it was a combination of all three. That's just me though.

Richmond and New Hampshire are both good tracks for him, but not even close to what he has been at Phoenix though. Hard to say that they are bad track for him, even though both tracks are ranked outside of his top 10 tracks over the past two seasons. Yes ranked 11th and 12th of 23 tracks. Despite his impressive numbers at both places. New Hampshire been a great track for him since joining SHR. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races. In that span, he has compiled 6.4 average finish (3rd-best) with 4.6 average running position (series-best) and 122.4 driver rating (series-best). Over the past three seasons, no driver has been better than Kevin Harvick. Yet it ranked as his 12th-best track over the past two seasons. This is after finishing 1st and 4th last year. Folks, he's that good everywhere, even some of his best tracks look average on a big board.

Richmond is considered as his weakest track among the shorter flats, but in reality it is a great place for him. Over the past two seasons, it is his 11th-best track in terms of average finish. That average finish is 6.7, by the way. Yeah I know that's impressive. Over his past 8 races, he has compiled 7 Top 11 finishes. He has one win that span but that win came with RCR in his final start though. He been on it lately at Richmond. As 4 of his past 5 races ended in 5th or better. He's swept the top 5 in both races in 2016. Harvick been very good on the shorter flats and that should continue in 2017. He might not start off as strong, but I fully expect him to get a win on one of them though.

The short track been good to Harvick, but he hasn't gotten the finishes to match the performances though. Harvick been a very strong performer at Bristol over the past couple seasons and starting to get rewarded it too. Over his past 5 races there, he has compiled 11.8 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.5 driver rating. How does in ranked in those categories? 3rd, 1st and 1st. Yeah, he's been very good. His last three races at Bristol? 7th, 2nd and 1st. His lowest driver rating in 6 starts with the #4 team is 99.2, back in April 2014 when he wrecked with 20 to go. Martinsville been tougher on Kevin, but he is vastly underrated though. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 108.4 driver rating. His performance stats (ARP and Driver rating) ranked him as the 3rd-best over the past two seasons. Those two drivers? Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. Don't overlook him at Martinsville, he can run well here.

Larger flats will be good to Kevin and personally I think he is a bit underrated. He's so strong on the intermediate tracks and shorter flats, he get disrespect on other tracks. I think larger flats are one of them honestly. Over the past two seasons, Pocono is ranked 20th of 23 tracks in terms of average finish. Not good, but trust me, don't me fooled though. He did finish 42nd in August 2015. He's blew an engine after 20 laps. In his past 4 races (minus that August 2015 race), he has compiled 3 finishes of 4th or better. Harvick finished 4th and 9th in last season's races at Pocono. Not anything over special, but still pretty good though. Harvick been good at Pocono, since joining the #4 team. Only one race he hasn't been competitive and that August 2015.

Indy been a great track for Harvick throughout his career. In 16 starts, he has compiled 12 Top 11 finishes. In his first 4 starts, he had 3 Top 8 finishes, including a win in 2003. Then from 2011 to 2013, he went three straight races without a top 10 finish. Longest of his career here. How about his past three races (all with SHR)? Well, he has compiled finishes of 6th, 3rd and 8th. That's ties his longest top 10 streak of his career at Indy. Another would set a new career-high with 4 in a row. Can he do it? I think there's a great chance of that happening.

Plate tracks should be good to Harvick, but I would call it a weakness for him. Only reason I saw that is because of the unknown at the plate tracks. He could easily find trouble, I don't think many would like to risk that. Especially in a limited-start game such as Yahoo Fantasy Racing. Regardless, he has proven himself as a plate racer ace. Daytona been great for Harvick since joining SHR. In 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 4 finishes. Including 3 straight top 4 finishes, before finishing 39th in last summer's race. Overall, he has compiled 4 Top 4 finishes over his past 7 races. That's a good number, folks. He's been better at Talladega though. Over his past 7 races, he hasn't finished worse than 16th. In 5 of his past 7 races, he has compiled finishes of 12th or better. In his past 6 races (all with SHR), he has finished 9th or better four times. He will be good at plate tracks, but as usual luck will play a role though.

Road courses are very underrated for Harvick, he doesn't get the respect that he's deserves. Sonoma, he been great at in his last three starts with #4 team. Over his past two starts, he has compiled finishes of 6th and 4th. In his first start with #4 team (in 2014), he was very strong. He had the car to beat on the long run but ran into issues during the race that derailed his finish. Overall, 5 of his past 7 races at Sonoma has ended in 10th or better. Harvick also been good at WGI. In 6 of his past 7 races there, he has compiled finishes of 15th or better. In 2 of his past three races there, he has compiled finishes of 7th or better. He's finished 32nd last year, but it was because of an accident though. He's finished a lap down for that race.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18