Saturday, May 06, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (Dega)

Welcome to TimersSports

We hit a milestone this week at Timerssports with 70,000 pageviews! That is so awesome, it is something that I didn't expect to ever see. Mainly because I didn't expect this site to be around for this long. Anyways, it is much appreciated. Anyways, now we turn our attention to the big show. Talladega!

What can I say about this place? Unpredictable. Fast. Fantasy Nascar nightmare. Those are accurate terms that fit Talladega SuperSpeedway! I really dislike this track and plate racing in general. You  either hate it or love it, I don't think there is much in between honestly. So who should you consider as sleepers and good dark horse options this weekend? Honestly, anyone got a good shot at finishing on the lead lap as the next guy. So it is very hard to predict, as one wreck could take out half of the field. But I have a few options I do have a good gut feeling about. Here's they are!

Sleepers -

Aric Almirola - I been on the Aric Almirola's bandwagon all season long and I am not about to jump off, especially after his best performance of the season at Richmond! On the season, he has produced 8 Top 20 finishes with 2 Top 10 this season. One top 10 came at Richmond and another one was in the season opener at Daytona! It doesn't mean much, since there were so many wrecks at Daytona. However, it does not change that Aric has a habit of finishing well on plate races in general. Some drivers, just have a knack for finishing on the lead lap at these tracks. Over the past three seasons (12 races) on plate tracks, Aric's posted 9 top 16 finishes. Including 8 Top 15 finishes. Since joining RPM (full-time in the #43 car), 12 of 21 races, he's finished 16th or better. While 14 of those 21 races ended in 20th or better. What am I getting at exactly? Aric just tends to finish out these races without destroying his car. Could he wreck out on lap 1 on Sunday? Sure! Could he win again like he did in 2014 at Daytona? Sure! Who knows, but history says he will be a good bet to take a shot with!

Cole Whitt - I been on the Cole Whitt's bandwagon last season (and this season) on the plate tracks. I might add quite successfully, too. Whitt is having a good season so far with his new team. He haven't blown anyone away, but he is quietly putting together a nice season for his level of equipment. At Talladega and Daytona, he is nothing fancy. He's usually find a way to survive these kind of races. In his past 10 plate races (going back to May 2014), he's posted 9 top 25 finishes in those 10 races. In his past 5 races, he's finished 18th or better. The number keep getting better as dig deeper into the data. At solely Talladega, his finishes look pretty solid! Cole has 5 straight Top 22 finishes at Talldega, including 11th place in last season's spring event. Are these numbers worthless when the green flag waves and the wrecking start? Yeah almost. But like I mentioned before, some drivers just have a knack for surviving these races. Cole is a driver that does. He will not lead many laps or run up front all day, but he has a good history of finishing out these races. And sometimes, that's enough. Even though, nothing is set in stone.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr -  Ricky Stenhouse Jr is having a great season with RFR and I been high on the RFR driver since the start of the 2016 season. Most people are just now starting to see the results at RFR though. Ricky is a talented driver and he is a very good plate racer. Talladega is considered his best track (here or Bristol probably) from a career standpoint. His career numbers at Talladega stand out from most tracks overall. In 7 career races, he's finished in the top 16 in six races. While finishing 13th or better in 5 of 7 races. Very good numbers, but his best three finishes has came in the fall event. In fact, he haven't finished worse than 9th in the fall's event here. Meaning his finishes in the spring race look like this: 16th (last year), 26th (2015), 10th (2014) and 13th (2013). Still, 3 of 4 races has ended in 13th-16th. That's still very solid!

Dark Horses -

Jamie Mac - For a number of years (more specfically the past 4 or 5), it has been debated weather Jamie is overrated or underrated on plate tracks. He always run well and contend for wins, but have a knack for finding trouble. Now, sit and think about that for a few minutes from both vantage points. See how you could make a case for both? I guess it doesn't really matter at this point, because I think most of us can agree that he has major potential. Almost every time we come to a plate track, Jamie is one of the guys we talk about and likely will be up at the front at some point. The term dark horse means ''potentially winning, but not expected to''. That right there describes him exactly. He is someone that usually run very well, but we don't expect him to actually win. With that said, he is a former winner at Talladega. In fact, he's won here back in Fall 2013. In 4 of his past 7 races at Talladega, he's finished 19th or better. His win came in the fall's event back in 2013. But his past two spring races has resulted in 11th and 4th.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is a elite driver on the plate track, he is a special talent on this type of track. I have always considered him one of the best in the series. He's pretty good at Daytona, but his numbers are far more impressive at Talladega. Great news, if you are on the Bowyer's bandwagon this weekend. In his past 19 races at Talladega, he's posted 14 Top 12 finishes. While 10 of his past 14 races ended in 10th or better at this track. Does these stats mean anything when the green waves? Probably not as much as we would like it to, but Bowyer is a great plate racer. He's experienced and understands how to use the draft. You cannot avoid the big one here, but a driver like Bowyer is someone that I feel good about putting himself in a good position. Bowyer has a good shot as anyone else, in my opinion.

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