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1-JMac: Tough weekend at Pocono for JMac and the #1 team. They weren't super competitive or contending for a top 5 finish, but they were top 10 in the race. Until, he lost his brakes and car caught on fire. And that's classic JMac right there. Trust me, if you play this fantasy nascar game long enough, there's a good chance that you will be JMac'd. Probably more than once, too. When he finds trouble, it usually pretty noticeable. I think he will rebound at Michigan though. The CGR cars been at their best on the intermediate tracks. With that said, I think Jamie has kinda cooled off since start of the season. This was something that most of us were (probably) expecting to happen. He still worth considering a top 10 or top 12 driver though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski had a great weekend at Poocno. He won on Saturday, after dueling Kyle Larson. Then had another great race on Sunday. I thought he was about the 4th-best driver for the race on Sunday. He was never quite as good as Kyle Busch or Harivick, or even Blaney, but you could tell he had a pretty fast racecar. He was due for some good luck for a change after back-to-back shitshows for him. He comes another really good racetrack and you could arguably that it is his most consistent track on the schedule. No, really! Since the 2011 season (13 races), he has compiled 13 Top 13 finishes. His numbers are just getting better though. In his past 6 Michigan races, he has compiled 4 Top 6 finishes. Including finishes of 3rd and 4th last season at Michigan. His past three June races at Michigan? 4th, 6th and 3rd. His best finishes has came in the June race, how much are will to bet he has another top 6 this Sunday?
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon had okay race at Pocono, I guess, it was nothing special though. He did finish in the top 15 again, so that's something for him. He is running quite a bit better since being paired with a new crew chief. And Dillon has always ran pretty well at Michigan. He is a driver that I would try to take a gamble on this week. He will be under the radar for the most part and could provide a nice value play. Especially, if he has a fast car. We haven't seen any monster speed from him this season, but he was top 10 good for the race at Charlotte. He won that race, on fuel mileage. So no reason to think that he cannot run top 10 again at his favorite track. Yes, favorite track, he has said that number of times over the past couple seasons.
4-Kevin Harvick: Last weekend at Pocono, I saw the most speed out of the No.4 team and SHR that I has seen all season long. Sure, he was pretty good at Atlanta earlier in the season. But that is a driver track. Since then, Harvick been just good enough to be a contender. Not race-winning though. This past week at Pocono, it was different. You just got that feeling in practice, unless weeks before that. Now, he is headed to another great racetrack at Michigan. This has been one of his best tracks on the schedule. He has been a stud here the past couple seasons. His numbers since the 2013 season is simply amazing. In his past 8 races here, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. Including 5 finishes of 2nd place, too. His lone non-top 5 finish? 29th place back in June 2015. He had a dominant race that day. He led the most laps and just before the rain came, he had a loose wheel, after a pit stop. It dropped him into the deep 20s in the running order. He could not recover, as he was a lap down when the rain came and stayed.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey had a Kasey-like race at Pocono. Run in the low to middle teens, before his day went to hell. On Fox Sports 1, they reported that Kahne was dealing with brake issues all day long in his car. That was false though. It actually on those last two run he had, the run after Johnson lost his brakes. That was when Kahne first reported his brake failing. He was struggling with that car. He dropped 6 spots in a couple laps, if I recall correctly halfway through the initial run he reported issues. So yeah, I highly suspected he would be a caution before the checkers. And he was. Can he rebound at Michigan? Sure, he could. Will he? Probably not though. We are 14 races into the season, at this point, we know who's good and who's not. Kahne is not and he is not showing improves. If he was showing signs of improvements with his performance. Then this would be a completely different story. It's not! Stay far away from the driver of the #5 car, just like usual.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had alright race at Pocono. He's finished 12th, which is noticable. Since, he has now finished 6 of the past 7 Cup races in the top 12. Also, that 12th place is his worse finish during that span. He wasn't super competitive in the race, he held his own for the most part. He is the Kasey Kahne of JGR. Just behind everyone it seems every year. He is putting together a nice run of races right now. Maybe that will give him some confident and lead to better finishes? Maybe. Just maybe, folks. I am keeping my eye on him though. More specifically for later in the season purposes! As for Michigan, I don't have my sights too high overall. Probably the usual ceiling of the top 10 is his limits. Michigan isn't a terrible track for him, as his numbers are actually pretty good lately. Just not in the June races overall. In his past 4 races here, he has 3 Top 11 finishes. That's good, right? Yeah, but his lone bad finish came in the June race. In his past 5 June races, he has only one finish better than 29th place. That was 2015 event, where he finished 11th. The really strange part about his June record here? Before finishing 5 of 6 races outside of the top 28. He had back-to-back wins in June 2010 and June 2011. Not the first time that we have seen very weird Hamlin stats. Won't be the last, either.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a very strong season, but he just cannot close the deal. Other weeks, you can had said it was because of bad luck. But honestly, he gave away the Pocono win by himself. That 18 car was something else, but him staying out put the nails in the Pocono coffin. If he pitted, he would had likely restarted in the top 3 and probably won. He stood out and got eat up by fresher tires. It wasn't a good gamble, because he really didn't need to gamble. Do I get why he did it? Yeah because several would had stayed out, if Kyle pitted. Still, he wouldn't been a sitting duck. But who knows how it would had played out exactly. He still may not had won, with track position being so important. Onto Michigan for Kyle. Not a great track for Kyle honestly. His numbers here are garbage. In 18 career starts with JGR, he has just four top 5 finishes. Yes, only four and the last one came in 2013. Not only that, but his previous top 5 before that was a win back in 2011. Not good, folks. His June numbers lately may be even worse. His past 5 June races: 40th, 43rd, 41st, 4th and 32nd. Another thing that stands out to me? He has only 3 top 10 finishes in his past 16 races at this place. He is fast every single week, but this man is cursed here right now!
19-Dainel Suarez: Suarez getting better each week and a lot of that has to do with Joe Gibbs Racing unloading better cars. Early in the season, I think Daniel struggled for a combination of reason. I think it was because of inexperience with the cup cars, but it wasn't the entire story. It also had to do with the lack of speed in his JGR Toyota. I thought Gibbs was a little behind, but now he is running much better now. So are his teammates, too. I think he will be perfectly fine this weekend at Michigan. It is a horsepower track, so you will need a lot speed. That will give the #19 car the advantage over the drivers that he is racing. He's good for a solid top 15 finish this weekend and maybe a little more.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is obviously showing signs of improvements lately and will go to victory lane sooner or later. I think he is moving closer to being in contention for race wins, but still has some work to do. But I have noticed the improvement on that race team. He was top 10 good for that Pocono race and ran in the top 5 often, too. He only finished 10th, but he was better than that though. Michigan is another great racetrack for him, one that he has found a lot of success on. I think he is going to be a popular pick this week to a certain extent. I still think he will be under the radar, but not as much as he has been. Over the past two seasons here, he has compiled the 5th-best average finish of 8.0. Also, he is only one of five drivers to sweep the top 15 in that span, too. Kenseth has a 10.3 career average finish at Michigan. But actually his numbers haven't been great with JGR. He was awesome here in 2015 with finishes of 4th and 1st. But finished 13th and 14th in last season's race. While 5 of his last 7 races at Michigan has resulted in a driver rating below 100. That's a bad sign, considering he had only one finish below 15th in that span.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is coming off the biggest win of his career, his first cup win! I cannot say that I am shocked and I don't think he is done by a long shot honestly. Michigan fits right into his style, I think he can go out there and win again. I really believe this, too. Two tracks comes to mind, when I think of Michigan right now. The first would be Kansas and he dominated that event. The other track that I thinking of with the reconfiguration would be Texas. But you know, to a lesser extent. He led a ton of laps there, too. He didn't win either race, but it what put him in the spotlight though. Michigan was also a great track for him last season, too. In fact, he's finished 4th in last August's race. In his first three starts, he had finishes of 24th, 24th and 17th. You know what I love about his finishes? They have gotten better in each start. You believe in trends, then your ass better be on the Blaney bandwagon.
22-Joey Logano: Logano looked a lot better this past weekend at Pocono, but it eventually ended in the same result as the past month. Since getting his win taken away at Richmond, the 22 team has been straight trash. Some people say it them testing, but would that make any sense? He doesn't have a win right now, so it would be pretty risky to be testing at this stage of their season. But I guess it wouldn't be surprising, either. Whatever the case is, the 22 team is in a world of hurt right now. As Joey has finished 21st or worse in his past 5 Cup races. Should you expect him to turn it around this weekend? He could as this is a great racetrack for him, but I would stay far away as possible. Until, he shows some consistency, I think it is better to stay away from him.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott has back-to-back good races and seems to found some confident. He haven't been top 5 good the past couple races, but he is starting to find himself though. He better hurry because other cup drivers are getting their first wins fast. Over the past year (back to August of last year), five different cup drivers have won their first race. A year ago, I think many would agree that Elliott would be among though. He isn't. Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon and Ryan Blaney only have. Where are Elliott best chances of joining them? I think it's this weekend at Michigan. When looking at the schedule for the next two months, I think this is the next where it will likely happen on. He led 35 and 31 laps in last season's races here, but finished 2nd place both times. And both times, he was in a position to win with just a few laps to go. Each time, he let someone get pass him. Elliott needs to learn to close the deal. Not only with race wins, but finishes in general.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch had a great race at Pocono and I think most of us expected that from him. Pocono was a place where most of us expected the 41 to be near the front. Michigan is not a place where you can expect the 41 car to be in front. Much like brother Kyle Busch, he has struggled to find any sort of consistency. His numbers are getting much better lately though. He won back in 2015 and has 3 Top 12 finishes in his past 4 races. When you dig deep into his numbers, you can see that Kurt not the biggest Michigan fan. In his past 20 races here, he has compiled just 10 Top 20 finishes. That's just 50% of the time. He has finished 6 of the past 7 races in the top 20 though. However, he has only 4 Top 10 finishes in his past 14 races at this track. Including only 3 of the past 11 races overall. I don't hate Kurt this weekend, but I certainly don't love him when you consider all of the factors. I can overlook the track record, if he was more consistent this season. Kurt been a question mark all season long. So inconsistent with his finishes, it is very hard to get a good read on him.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is having a really good season so far and returns to the site of his first career cup win. It didn't win last June's event, but he did come back a couple months later and outdueled Chase Elliott though. He wasn't too bad in the June race, either. He's finished 3rd and ran top 3 or top 4 the entire race. Not the first time, he had came close to victory lane. In 2014, he had a really good shot. He had the right pit strategy (same one as eventual race winner Johnson) down, but got caught speeding on pit road. Ended any shot he had. In June 2015, he once again was in a great spot to win. He was leading the race, after staying out and the rain was coming. Problem was? He pitted from the lead, just a few laps before the rain came. He was top 10 good for entire event though. Of course that led us to last year, where he finished 3rd and 1st. If this season can tell us anything, then it is Larson is one of the fastest drivers. That's a pretty big deal at Michigan.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had an average race at Pocono and ended when he destoryed his car, after the brakes failed. That was probably one of the hardest hits of his career right there. Johnson had to sit down against the wall, afterwards. I can tell you it was a pretty scary crash to watch in person. I was pretty close to where he eventually slammed into the wall. It amazes me how he walked away with no injuries like he did. How will he do at Michigan? Hard to say, he has a pretty rocky track record overall. But he has been really good on the intermediate tracks this season. I think Johnson will be a player this weekend, but I don't he will win. I think HMS overall is still lacking some speed. The 48 team seem to be able to improve the car throughout the race most weeks this season. But off the truck, they tend to be a little off of the faster teams.
77-Erik Jones: Erik Jones had his best race of the 2017 season and of his career at Pocono. That 77 car was very fast and the results will keep coming in with more expereince. I think Erik will get to victory lane before the season is over. He is a very talented young man with unlimited poential. Michigan is the exact kind of track that I think he will run strong on. I think it could easily be one of his better races, too. His past two intermediate tracks, he has ran top 10 good. He finished 22nd at Kansas, but he had a lot of bad luck in that race. If I recall right, he got hard into the wall and caused a caution, while running top 10. This kid can really drive and he will be a factor this weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr has been one of the fastest drivers this season on the intermediate tracks and it will be no different on Sunday. No only has he been one of the quickest drivers on the intermediate tracks. But it doesn't seem to matter what sort of track we visit. The 78 is the consistent car with the most speed. It is scary how good that car has been this season. He will be a guy to deal with at Michigan this weekend. Shockingly, he only had finishes of 12th and 20th in 2016. That comes as a big suprise, since he was so strong on this type of track. He had finishes of 3rd and 3rd in 2015. So his finishes over the past 2 seasons, been pretty similar from the June to the August race. Biggest thing I take away from his track record at Michigan? Only three top 10 finishes in the past 4 seasons. All three finishes were 3rd place finishes though.
88-Dale Jr: I think Dale Jr had mailed it for the most part honestly. He just doesn't look like the driver he was two seasons ago. But not because of retirement. I don't know why, but ever since start of last season, Dale Jr and that 88 team has looked off. Could it be the crew? Maybe. But Alex Bowman and Jeff Gordon were also in that car in 2016. They both outran Dale Jr, when you look at the numbers. Dale Jr is just having another tough year and Pocono didn't do him any favors. Michigan is a great track for him though. With 4 of his past 5 races ended inside the top 10 for him. His past 7 races has ended in the top 10 or outside of the top 35. Actually his past 9 races ended in the top 10 or outside of the top 35. So he is basically boom or bust at Michigan, dating back to the 2012 season.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
