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Trevor Bayne get zero respect from anyone it seems and I get that because of RFR's recent history. The entire Roush organization were at their low point in the 2014 and 2015. Logically the drivers get shit on and a bad reputation comes to the surface. I am not your average fan, so you cannot fool me that easily. I love digging up stats and comparing them, so my perspective is a little different. And over the past two seasons, Bayne has been making solid gains as a driver. But Roush was so bad 3 or 4 seasons ago, it is hard to see those gains. Especially, if you don't keep track of his progress.
In his rookie season, he posted just 2 top 10 finish with 25.8 average finish in 36 races. Yeah that's bad and that was during Roush's worst season as whole. 2015 was a ugly year for the whole organization. So no surprise that their most inexperience driver had the biggest struggles. In 2016, he was a lot better overall. In 36 races, he posted 2 top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes with 19.9 average finish. In the first 23 races of the 2016 season, he posted 14 Top 20 finishes. He had 20 Top 20 finishes in 36 races. So yeah, it was a decent season in 2015 was. But I felt like he truly took a big step in 2017. Especially how he started the season. In the first 11 races of the 2017 season, he posted 8 finishes of 13th or better. Sounds pretty promising, don't you agree? I was pretty impressed by him in those 11 races. Then there was the All-star break and that when things started to go downhill. In the final 24 races, he only posted 4 top 13 finishes. If he can keep up the consistency for a longer period of time, I think he can have a really good season in 2018. That's all I really need to see from him in 2018. I don't care about how many top 5 finishes or top 10 finishes he get. Just consistently finish in the top 15 on a weekly basis. Worry about the top finishes, later on down the road.
He will be inconsistent on the intermediate tracks in 2018, but I expect him to make some sort of progress though. In 2017, he was really consistent all around on the intermediate. On the 1.5 mile tracks, he finished 20th or better in 9 of 11 races. In addition, he had finishes of 17th and 5th at Michigan as well. He wasn't a top 5 driver at Michigan, but things really worked in his favor at the end though. His best intermediate tracks so far in his career are Michigan, Las Vegas and Atlanta. All three are good tracks for him, but two of them we only visit once per season. So our data pool is limited. But like anything else, we have to trust the data until it says not to.
At Atlanta, Bayne only has four career starts. However, he has made them count though. In 4 career starts, he has compiled 3 finishes of 19th or better. His lone non-top 20 finish is 22nd in 2016. Last season was his best performance by far at Atlanta. If you watch the 2016 Atlanta race and then watch the 2017 race, it is clear as day which race he was better in. He was legit top 15 driver in last season's race. The next track that I would like to look at is Las Vegas. In 7 career starts, he has posted 5 finishes in the top 20. In the past two seasons, he has finishes of 13th and 17th. He has made three starts in the #6 car at Atlanta. He has improved in each start. He finished 28th in 2015, 17th in 2016 and 13th in 2017. The trends are on his side for a possible top 10 finish in 2018. Again, they are trends and can change in an instant. But it is encouraging to see!
Michigan is one of his best tracks on the schedule, in my opinion. Bayne has always been a big fan of Michigan. So it make sense that he has had some success here, dating back to his days in the #21 car. Of the non-plate tracks, he has made the most starts here of any track. He has made 6 starts with the #6 car and has posted 4 finishes of 17th or better. In fact, he has posted 3 top 15 finishes in those 6 starts. That's 50% of the time! The June races been really good for Bayne. He has made 7 starts in the June races since 2011. In those 7 races, he has compiled 6 finishes in the top 20. His finishes in June are as follow: 17th (2017), 15h, 9th, 19th, 15th, 43rd (engine - 2012) and 16th (2011). The August races? Well not quite as promising: 5th (2017), 24th, 22nd, 41st, 21st, 24th and 24th (2011). He has no top 20 finishes in the August race, prior to finishing 5th in last season's race.
The flats tracks will be at times a tough type of track for Bayne to find success on. He has struggled on the flats over the past couple seasons. I think RFR's struggled and his inxpereince both can contribute to that. I would like to look at the shorter flats first. His best shorter flat track is Richmond. He has mix results there, but his finishes of late are very encouraging. Bayne has posted 3 finishes of 17th or better and 3 finishes of 23rd or worse. Good news? His last four races (2 seasons): 25th, 13th, 14th and 17th. That's really good, minus his most recent race here.One thing I always look for in young drivers is if they are completing laps and getting more experience. That's so key for drivers like Bayne. If he keep up his recent good runs here, the finishes will follow. I would be very happy with some more top 17 finishes from him in 2018. In fact, I wouldn't surprised at all.
New Hampshire and Phoenix are where I am most considered about when it comes to the 5 flats. Over the past two seasons, both tracks are ranked in his bottom-three worst tracks. In fact, they are by far his worst two tracks among places with two races per season. How bad have he been at these two tracks? In his last 8 starts combined, he has compiled just two top 20 finishes. That matches his number of DNFs as well in those 8 races. In his last four races at New Hampshire, his best finish is 20th in last July's race. In 4 of his 6 career starts, Bayne has finished 23rd or worse. He has been even worse at Phoenix. Just terrible so far in his career. In 7 career starts, he has only one finish better than 23rd place. That was 19th in last March's race. Otherwise his finishes look like this: 39th, 28th, 23rd, 34th, 28th and 40th. That's good enough for a 30.0 career average finish in 7 career starts. Woof!
The larger flats are not much more encouraging for Bayne so far in his career. At least not at Indy, he has been dreadful in his limited starts. In 7 career starts, he has only two top 20 finishes. And three finishes better than 30th overall. He hit rock bottom in 2014, where he finished 43rd. Since then, his finishes are as followed: 40th, 30th and 20th. He has improved his finishing position in each of the last three seasons at Indy. I know it is not saying much, but things are looking up for him and the 6 team at Indy. The other larger flat is Pocono. And it has been actually pretty consistent track for Bayne over the past couple seasons. In his two seasons (or last 4 races), he has compiled 4 straight finishes of 13th-21st. He has finishes of 20th, 21st, 19th and 13th. He haven't been anything special during the races, but he has logged laps and gotten pretty good finishes. That's the best thing he can do at a challenging track such as Pocono. He need to keep doing that in 2018 and keep adding solid finishes in the top 20.
Bristol and Martinsville are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. Bristol is one of his best tracks on the schedule! RFR has found a lot of success at Bristol recently and 2018 could be the same as well. In Bayne's first two starts, he had finishes of 28th and 34th. Since then? He has 5 straight finishes of 15th or better. In his last 4 races, he haven't finished worse than 12th in any of them. In 3 of his last 4 races, he have 3 races with driver ratings above 80.0. That's important because a driver rating is a great tool to measure a driver's performance. You can tell by that or a driver's average running position. He had finishes of 7th and 11th in 2017. At Martinsville, he isn't quite as good though. He had a tough start to his career at Martinsville, before breaking out in 2017. In his first 5 career starts, he had just one finish better than 23rd. In fact, 3 of his first 4 races ended in 27th or worse. In 2017, he had finishes of 6th and 13th. I am still not convinced that he is legit here though. I need to see more than two races at a place like this. But he has my attention though.
Road courses are a ideal place to avoid Trevor Bayne in general. Both places has been pretty tough on him overall. In six career starts combined, he has just top 20 finish and two finishes in the top 22. Both of those finishes came at Watkins Glenn. He had a 9th place finish in 2016 and 22nd in 2015. He wasn't a top 10 driver in the 2016 race though. Not even close. He probably was lucky to be 20th place driver, if he was even that during the event. At Sonoma, he has a career high of 23rd in his debut at the track in 2015. In his three starts, he has finishes of 23rd, 25th and 27th. Yeah, I think I would avoid him in general on the road courses. There's better places to him!
Plate tracks has been very good to him over the past couple seasons and this isn't something that I expected. After winning the Daytona 500 in his Cup debut, he really struggled to produce good numbers for awhile. At Daytona, he has really good numbers in his last 5 races. Since July 2015 (5 races), he has compiled 3 top 10 finishes in 5 races. From July 2011 to February 2015 (8 races), he had no finishes better than 20th place. In 7 of those 8 races, he finished 27th or worse. So it has been a very good turnaround for him over the past few seasons. At Talladega, I would say that his success isn't as good. In his last 4 races here, he has compiled 3 finishes of 17th or better. In 6 of his last 9 races at Talladega, he has finished 21st or worse.
Trevor Bayne won't have a great season and he won't get much respect from your average race fan. That's just how it will be. That does not mean, he isn't a decent driver. He belongs here at this level. But he will only go far as RFR will take him. They need to deliver him quality racecars to race. He started off 2017 very well (like he did in 2016, too) and I would love to see him do that again. He will likely be his best on the intermediate tracks overall. You can throw Bristol in there as well. Every other type of track, I have my concerns about. The flats will likely be where he is the most inconsistent on. Richmond looks like the best place to employ him though. Road courses will be consistent, but probably consistently bad. As I breakdown up above, he haven't had many good races in his limited experience at both Watkins Glen and Sonoma. He needs to show me something before I trust him at either track. As for plate tracks, I am still undecided about. He has been good over the past couple seasons, but I am not sold on him. Convince me, Trevor!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Trevor Bayne get zero respect from anyone it seems and I get that because of RFR's recent history. The entire Roush organization were at their low point in the 2014 and 2015. Logically the drivers get shit on and a bad reputation comes to the surface. I am not your average fan, so you cannot fool me that easily. I love digging up stats and comparing them, so my perspective is a little different. And over the past two seasons, Bayne has been making solid gains as a driver. But Roush was so bad 3 or 4 seasons ago, it is hard to see those gains. Especially, if you don't keep track of his progress.
In his rookie season, he posted just 2 top 10 finish with 25.8 average finish in 36 races. Yeah that's bad and that was during Roush's worst season as whole. 2015 was a ugly year for the whole organization. So no surprise that their most inexperience driver had the biggest struggles. In 2016, he was a lot better overall. In 36 races, he posted 2 top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes with 19.9 average finish. In the first 23 races of the 2016 season, he posted 14 Top 20 finishes. He had 20 Top 20 finishes in 36 races. So yeah, it was a decent season in 2015 was. But I felt like he truly took a big step in 2017. Especially how he started the season. In the first 11 races of the 2017 season, he posted 8 finishes of 13th or better. Sounds pretty promising, don't you agree? I was pretty impressed by him in those 11 races. Then there was the All-star break and that when things started to go downhill. In the final 24 races, he only posted 4 top 13 finishes. If he can keep up the consistency for a longer period of time, I think he can have a really good season in 2018. That's all I really need to see from him in 2018. I don't care about how many top 5 finishes or top 10 finishes he get. Just consistently finish in the top 15 on a weekly basis. Worry about the top finishes, later on down the road.
He will be inconsistent on the intermediate tracks in 2018, but I expect him to make some sort of progress though. In 2017, he was really consistent all around on the intermediate. On the 1.5 mile tracks, he finished 20th or better in 9 of 11 races. In addition, he had finishes of 17th and 5th at Michigan as well. He wasn't a top 5 driver at Michigan, but things really worked in his favor at the end though. His best intermediate tracks so far in his career are Michigan, Las Vegas and Atlanta. All three are good tracks for him, but two of them we only visit once per season. So our data pool is limited. But like anything else, we have to trust the data until it says not to.
At Atlanta, Bayne only has four career starts. However, he has made them count though. In 4 career starts, he has compiled 3 finishes of 19th or better. His lone non-top 20 finish is 22nd in 2016. Last season was his best performance by far at Atlanta. If you watch the 2016 Atlanta race and then watch the 2017 race, it is clear as day which race he was better in. He was legit top 15 driver in last season's race. The next track that I would like to look at is Las Vegas. In 7 career starts, he has posted 5 finishes in the top 20. In the past two seasons, he has finishes of 13th and 17th. He has made three starts in the #6 car at Atlanta. He has improved in each start. He finished 28th in 2015, 17th in 2016 and 13th in 2017. The trends are on his side for a possible top 10 finish in 2018. Again, they are trends and can change in an instant. But it is encouraging to see!
Michigan is one of his best tracks on the schedule, in my opinion. Bayne has always been a big fan of Michigan. So it make sense that he has had some success here, dating back to his days in the #21 car. Of the non-plate tracks, he has made the most starts here of any track. He has made 6 starts with the #6 car and has posted 4 finishes of 17th or better. In fact, he has posted 3 top 15 finishes in those 6 starts. That's 50% of the time! The June races been really good for Bayne. He has made 7 starts in the June races since 2011. In those 7 races, he has compiled 6 finishes in the top 20. His finishes in June are as follow: 17th (2017), 15h, 9th, 19th, 15th, 43rd (engine - 2012) and 16th (2011). The August races? Well not quite as promising: 5th (2017), 24th, 22nd, 41st, 21st, 24th and 24th (2011). He has no top 20 finishes in the August race, prior to finishing 5th in last season's race.
The flats tracks will be at times a tough type of track for Bayne to find success on. He has struggled on the flats over the past couple seasons. I think RFR's struggled and his inxpereince both can contribute to that. I would like to look at the shorter flats first. His best shorter flat track is Richmond. He has mix results there, but his finishes of late are very encouraging. Bayne has posted 3 finishes of 17th or better and 3 finishes of 23rd or worse. Good news? His last four races (2 seasons): 25th, 13th, 14th and 17th. That's really good, minus his most recent race here.One thing I always look for in young drivers is if they are completing laps and getting more experience. That's so key for drivers like Bayne. If he keep up his recent good runs here, the finishes will follow. I would be very happy with some more top 17 finishes from him in 2018. In fact, I wouldn't surprised at all.
New Hampshire and Phoenix are where I am most considered about when it comes to the 5 flats. Over the past two seasons, both tracks are ranked in his bottom-three worst tracks. In fact, they are by far his worst two tracks among places with two races per season. How bad have he been at these two tracks? In his last 8 starts combined, he has compiled just two top 20 finishes. That matches his number of DNFs as well in those 8 races. In his last four races at New Hampshire, his best finish is 20th in last July's race. In 4 of his 6 career starts, Bayne has finished 23rd or worse. He has been even worse at Phoenix. Just terrible so far in his career. In 7 career starts, he has only one finish better than 23rd place. That was 19th in last March's race. Otherwise his finishes look like this: 39th, 28th, 23rd, 34th, 28th and 40th. That's good enough for a 30.0 career average finish in 7 career starts. Woof!
The larger flats are not much more encouraging for Bayne so far in his career. At least not at Indy, he has been dreadful in his limited starts. In 7 career starts, he has only two top 20 finishes. And three finishes better than 30th overall. He hit rock bottom in 2014, where he finished 43rd. Since then, his finishes are as followed: 40th, 30th and 20th. He has improved his finishing position in each of the last three seasons at Indy. I know it is not saying much, but things are looking up for him and the 6 team at Indy. The other larger flat is Pocono. And it has been actually pretty consistent track for Bayne over the past couple seasons. In his two seasons (or last 4 races), he has compiled 4 straight finishes of 13th-21st. He has finishes of 20th, 21st, 19th and 13th. He haven't been anything special during the races, but he has logged laps and gotten pretty good finishes. That's the best thing he can do at a challenging track such as Pocono. He need to keep doing that in 2018 and keep adding solid finishes in the top 20.
Bristol and Martinsville are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. Bristol is one of his best tracks on the schedule! RFR has found a lot of success at Bristol recently and 2018 could be the same as well. In Bayne's first two starts, he had finishes of 28th and 34th. Since then? He has 5 straight finishes of 15th or better. In his last 4 races, he haven't finished worse than 12th in any of them. In 3 of his last 4 races, he have 3 races with driver ratings above 80.0. That's important because a driver rating is a great tool to measure a driver's performance. You can tell by that or a driver's average running position. He had finishes of 7th and 11th in 2017. At Martinsville, he isn't quite as good though. He had a tough start to his career at Martinsville, before breaking out in 2017. In his first 5 career starts, he had just one finish better than 23rd. In fact, 3 of his first 4 races ended in 27th or worse. In 2017, he had finishes of 6th and 13th. I am still not convinced that he is legit here though. I need to see more than two races at a place like this. But he has my attention though.
Road courses are a ideal place to avoid Trevor Bayne in general. Both places has been pretty tough on him overall. In six career starts combined, he has just top 20 finish and two finishes in the top 22. Both of those finishes came at Watkins Glenn. He had a 9th place finish in 2016 and 22nd in 2015. He wasn't a top 10 driver in the 2016 race though. Not even close. He probably was lucky to be 20th place driver, if he was even that during the event. At Sonoma, he has a career high of 23rd in his debut at the track in 2015. In his three starts, he has finishes of 23rd, 25th and 27th. Yeah, I think I would avoid him in general on the road courses. There's better places to him!
Plate tracks has been very good to him over the past couple seasons and this isn't something that I expected. After winning the Daytona 500 in his Cup debut, he really struggled to produce good numbers for awhile. At Daytona, he has really good numbers in his last 5 races. Since July 2015 (5 races), he has compiled 3 top 10 finishes in 5 races. From July 2011 to February 2015 (8 races), he had no finishes better than 20th place. In 7 of those 8 races, he finished 27th or worse. So it has been a very good turnaround for him over the past few seasons. At Talladega, I would say that his success isn't as good. In his last 4 races here, he has compiled 3 finishes of 17th or better. In 6 of his last 9 races at Talladega, he has finished 21st or worse.
Trevor Bayne won't have a great season and he won't get much respect from your average race fan. That's just how it will be. That does not mean, he isn't a decent driver. He belongs here at this level. But he will only go far as RFR will take him. They need to deliver him quality racecars to race. He started off 2017 very well (like he did in 2016, too) and I would love to see him do that again. He will likely be his best on the intermediate tracks overall. You can throw Bristol in there as well. Every other type of track, I have my concerns about. The flats will likely be where he is the most inconsistent on. Richmond looks like the best place to employ him though. Road courses will be consistent, but probably consistently bad. As I breakdown up above, he haven't had many good races in his limited experience at both Watkins Glen and Sonoma. He needs to show me something before I trust him at either track. As for plate tracks, I am still undecided about. He has been good over the past couple seasons, but I am not sold on him. Convince me, Trevor!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18