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Austin Dillon had a consistent rookie season for the most part, but then he was all over the map in year 2. He made some impressive strides in 2016 in year 3 with a good mix of consistency and results. But then last year, he really step back and regressed his ways back to the 2015 season. Even though, he did score a win though. He posted 3 top 5 finishes with 4 top 10 finishes on 18.6 average finish. At end of the season, he was very good though. In his last five races of the 2017 season, he posted 5 straight finishes of 14th or better. That was his best stench of the season.
The intermediate tracks will be an interesting place for him in 2018. He will be inconsistent and have mix bag of results. I think his upside is in the top 15 somewhere, with his realistic finishes coming between 12th-20th somewhere. He may sneak in a top 10 finish here and there, but I am not expecting many. His best two intermediate tracks are Michigan and Kansas, in my personal opinion. Of the two, Kansas is his better track overall. Both are pretty similar though, so no shocker that Dillon have performed well on both. At Kansas, he has performed consistency well. In his last 4 races at this track, he has compiled 4 straight finishes of 16th or better. Including a pair of 8th place finishes in 2016. At Michigan, he always been pretty good. He said it is his favorite racetrack on the schedule. Back in 2016, he said he loves big and fast tracks. That's exactly describes Michigan in general. In 2014 and 2015, he had zero finishes better of 20th. But he was very good in 2 of those three races. But he had bad luck in both races. One race, he had couple of speeding penalty and the other one he had a tire go down after pit stop. However, he has been very good lately. Over his last 5 Michigan races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 8th or better. Including a finish of 7th in last August's race.
The shorter flats will be inconsistent for Dillon, but he should be able to grab a couple solid finishes. I say like most tracks, his best possible outcome is for him to finish in the low-teens. Over the past couple seasons, his best track is New Hampshire. In 8 career starts, he has only one finish outside of the top 20. In his last 6 races (3 seasons) here, he has compiled 4 finishes of 16th or better. In his last three races here, he has finishes of 19th, 15th, 16th and 13th. Of all of the shorter flats, he is the most consistent here. All he need to do now is up his finishes a little more.
Phoenix has been a okay track for him overall. In his last 5 of 6 races, he has finished 20th or better. His lone non-top 20 is 39th place. In his last 4 races, he has finishes of 18th, 14th and 9th. Clearly, he isn't as good here as he is at New Hampshire. But still, I wouldn't mind similar kind of results in 2018 from him. In fact, I would say that is exactly what I am expecting. Then there's Richmond! And I would call this his worst track among the three shorter flats. In 8 career starts, he has only one finish better than 20th place. And that was 13th in September 2016. However, he have finishes of 13th, 20th and 20th in 3 of last 4 races at Richmond.
At the larger flats tracks, he has been a interesting option in recent seasons. Both are good track for him, but nothing over the top though. At Pocono, he haven't had many bad races for the most part. In 8 career starts, he has finished 6 of 8 races between 13th-19th. In 3 of his last 5 races, Dillon has finished 13th. In last season August's race, he finished 21st. That was just his 2nd career finish outside of the top 20 at Pocono. At Indy, he been pretty up and down. He has two finishes in the top 10 in the last four seasons. But he also have two finishes outside of the top 20 as well. His finishes of 9th and 10th came in 2014 and 2016. So trends say he is due for another top 10 finish though. Take that for whatever it is worth to you.
The next two tracks that I want to look at is Martinsville and Bristol. Both venues are very good for Dillon. Over the past two seasons, not many tracks on the schedule has been kinder to Dillon than Martinsville. In his last 4 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 4 finishes of 17th or better. Including top 5 finishes in each of the past two April (spring) races. Overall, Dillon has finished 18th or better in 7 of his 8 career starts. Heading into his cup career, this is one of the last places that I figured Dillon would succeed at like he has. I would go far as to say that Austin Dillon is one of the most underrated drivers in the series at the paperclip. At Bristol, he is also decent and pretty unappreciated. In his last 6 races at Bristol, Dillon has 4 finishes of 13th or better. Overall in 8 career starts, Austin Dillon has compiled 5 finishes of 13th or better. He finished 13th and 4th in two of his last three races here. He had a DNF back in last August's race. He finished 39th after completing just 230 laps.
Like most inexperience drivers, Dillon has had up and down moments at both road courses. Of the two tracks, I would have to say that Sonoma has been a little kinder to him. In 4 career starts at Sonoma, he does not have any finishes better than 17th place. He had finishes of 17th in his first two career starts in 2014 and 2015. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he has finishes of 18th and 22nd. In terms of performance, I thought last season race was one of his better days on a road course. He was better than that 18th place finish. At Watkins Glen, he haven't found much success. His first career start was his best race. He finished 16th and was his best performance. In his last 3 starts, he does not have any finishes in the top 20. In fact, his best finish in that span is 26th. Good news? That 26th place finish came in 2017. In 2015, he finished 36th. In 2016, he finished 31st. See a pattern? He is improving his finishes. Good sign for 2018!
Plate tracks always seems to be a strong suit for Austin Dillon, even when he doesn't finish up front. He does a great job in the draft and has some talent when it comes to it. Dillon is already considered one of the better drivers in the series on these plate tracks. Last season at Daytona, Dillon struggled to get good finishes. He had finishes of 36th and 19th. In his 6 previous starts (prior to 2017 season), he had 5 finishes of 9th or better. In all 6 of those races, he finished 14th or better. Was 2017 just a fluke? I would like to think so, or at least give him benefit of the doubt. At Talladega, his numbers aren't quite as good. In his last 8 races here, he has compiled 6 finishes of 15th or better. While, he have 3 finishes of 14th or better in his last 5 races at Talladega. Much like Daytona, he had a tough 2017 season. He had finishes of 29th and 36th at Talladega. I would like to think that 2017 was just a bad season for Dillon.
After a disappointing season, aside from his win in 2017, I think a lot of people will be overlooking him. And I won't lie that I have my doubt about him. But I think he can have a good season, if RCR can improve from last season. Dillon will have his ups and downs, but you got to remember that he is still trying to develop as a 5th-year driver. He will have his good days and bad. Intemediate tracks will probably determine weather his seson is a success or a failure. This goes for most drivers on big-time teams. I think Dillon will have a few top 10 finishes, but most of his finishes will be in the low to high teens. That is where I am expecting most of his performances overall, too. The flats will be interesting because like most tracks, he seems to be a little up and down. He seems to be pretty consistent on the larger flats and at New Hampshire. You can say the same thing with Phoenix, but to a lesser extent. Plate tracks will another strength for Austin Dillon in 2018. For most of his young career, he has been very impressive on this type of track. You can expect more of the same in 2018! I think Dillon improve his top 5 and top 10 finishes in 2018, but he will not go back to victory lane though.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Austin Dillon had a consistent rookie season for the most part, but then he was all over the map in year 2. He made some impressive strides in 2016 in year 3 with a good mix of consistency and results. But then last year, he really step back and regressed his ways back to the 2015 season. Even though, he did score a win though. He posted 3 top 5 finishes with 4 top 10 finishes on 18.6 average finish. At end of the season, he was very good though. In his last five races of the 2017 season, he posted 5 straight finishes of 14th or better. That was his best stench of the season.
The intermediate tracks will be an interesting place for him in 2018. He will be inconsistent and have mix bag of results. I think his upside is in the top 15 somewhere, with his realistic finishes coming between 12th-20th somewhere. He may sneak in a top 10 finish here and there, but I am not expecting many. His best two intermediate tracks are Michigan and Kansas, in my personal opinion. Of the two, Kansas is his better track overall. Both are pretty similar though, so no shocker that Dillon have performed well on both. At Kansas, he has performed consistency well. In his last 4 races at this track, he has compiled 4 straight finishes of 16th or better. Including a pair of 8th place finishes in 2016. At Michigan, he always been pretty good. He said it is his favorite racetrack on the schedule. Back in 2016, he said he loves big and fast tracks. That's exactly describes Michigan in general. In 2014 and 2015, he had zero finishes better of 20th. But he was very good in 2 of those three races. But he had bad luck in both races. One race, he had couple of speeding penalty and the other one he had a tire go down after pit stop. However, he has been very good lately. Over his last 5 Michigan races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 8th or better. Including a finish of 7th in last August's race.
The shorter flats will be inconsistent for Dillon, but he should be able to grab a couple solid finishes. I say like most tracks, his best possible outcome is for him to finish in the low-teens. Over the past couple seasons, his best track is New Hampshire. In 8 career starts, he has only one finish outside of the top 20. In his last 6 races (3 seasons) here, he has compiled 4 finishes of 16th or better. In his last three races here, he has finishes of 19th, 15th, 16th and 13th. Of all of the shorter flats, he is the most consistent here. All he need to do now is up his finishes a little more.
Phoenix has been a okay track for him overall. In his last 5 of 6 races, he has finished 20th or better. His lone non-top 20 is 39th place. In his last 4 races, he has finishes of 18th, 14th and 9th. Clearly, he isn't as good here as he is at New Hampshire. But still, I wouldn't mind similar kind of results in 2018 from him. In fact, I would say that is exactly what I am expecting. Then there's Richmond! And I would call this his worst track among the three shorter flats. In 8 career starts, he has only one finish better than 20th place. And that was 13th in September 2016. However, he have finishes of 13th, 20th and 20th in 3 of last 4 races at Richmond.
At the larger flats tracks, he has been a interesting option in recent seasons. Both are good track for him, but nothing over the top though. At Pocono, he haven't had many bad races for the most part. In 8 career starts, he has finished 6 of 8 races between 13th-19th. In 3 of his last 5 races, Dillon has finished 13th. In last season August's race, he finished 21st. That was just his 2nd career finish outside of the top 20 at Pocono. At Indy, he been pretty up and down. He has two finishes in the top 10 in the last four seasons. But he also have two finishes outside of the top 20 as well. His finishes of 9th and 10th came in 2014 and 2016. So trends say he is due for another top 10 finish though. Take that for whatever it is worth to you.
The next two tracks that I want to look at is Martinsville and Bristol. Both venues are very good for Dillon. Over the past two seasons, not many tracks on the schedule has been kinder to Dillon than Martinsville. In his last 4 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 4 finishes of 17th or better. Including top 5 finishes in each of the past two April (spring) races. Overall, Dillon has finished 18th or better in 7 of his 8 career starts. Heading into his cup career, this is one of the last places that I figured Dillon would succeed at like he has. I would go far as to say that Austin Dillon is one of the most underrated drivers in the series at the paperclip. At Bristol, he is also decent and pretty unappreciated. In his last 6 races at Bristol, Dillon has 4 finishes of 13th or better. Overall in 8 career starts, Austin Dillon has compiled 5 finishes of 13th or better. He finished 13th and 4th in two of his last three races here. He had a DNF back in last August's race. He finished 39th after completing just 230 laps.
Like most inexperience drivers, Dillon has had up and down moments at both road courses. Of the two tracks, I would have to say that Sonoma has been a little kinder to him. In 4 career starts at Sonoma, he does not have any finishes better than 17th place. He had finishes of 17th in his first two career starts in 2014 and 2015. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he has finishes of 18th and 22nd. In terms of performance, I thought last season race was one of his better days on a road course. He was better than that 18th place finish. At Watkins Glen, he haven't found much success. His first career start was his best race. He finished 16th and was his best performance. In his last 3 starts, he does not have any finishes in the top 20. In fact, his best finish in that span is 26th. Good news? That 26th place finish came in 2017. In 2015, he finished 36th. In 2016, he finished 31st. See a pattern? He is improving his finishes. Good sign for 2018!
Plate tracks always seems to be a strong suit for Austin Dillon, even when he doesn't finish up front. He does a great job in the draft and has some talent when it comes to it. Dillon is already considered one of the better drivers in the series on these plate tracks. Last season at Daytona, Dillon struggled to get good finishes. He had finishes of 36th and 19th. In his 6 previous starts (prior to 2017 season), he had 5 finishes of 9th or better. In all 6 of those races, he finished 14th or better. Was 2017 just a fluke? I would like to think so, or at least give him benefit of the doubt. At Talladega, his numbers aren't quite as good. In his last 8 races here, he has compiled 6 finishes of 15th or better. While, he have 3 finishes of 14th or better in his last 5 races at Talladega. Much like Daytona, he had a tough 2017 season. He had finishes of 29th and 36th at Talladega. I would like to think that 2017 was just a bad season for Dillon.
After a disappointing season, aside from his win in 2017, I think a lot of people will be overlooking him. And I won't lie that I have my doubt about him. But I think he can have a good season, if RCR can improve from last season. Dillon will have his ups and downs, but you got to remember that he is still trying to develop as a 5th-year driver. He will have his good days and bad. Intemediate tracks will probably determine weather his seson is a success or a failure. This goes for most drivers on big-time teams. I think Dillon will have a few top 10 finishes, but most of his finishes will be in the low to high teens. That is where I am expecting most of his performances overall, too. The flats will be interesting because like most tracks, he seems to be a little up and down. He seems to be pretty consistent on the larger flats and at New Hampshire. You can say the same thing with Phoenix, but to a lesser extent. Plate tracks will another strength for Austin Dillon in 2018. For most of his young career, he has been very impressive on this type of track. You can expect more of the same in 2018! I think Dillon improve his top 5 and top 10 finishes in 2018, but he will not go back to victory lane though.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18