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Saturday, January 06, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jamie Mac

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Jamie Mac had a great 2017 season, it was so good, I think most of us knew before June that he would have one of his best seasons as a driver. I think that right there showed the improvement at CGR from 2016. Jamie started the 2017 out really strong and never really slowed down. He wasn't super fast, like his teammate, but he was very consistent. In terms of stats, I would say it was his 3rd-best season of his career. He posted 3 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes with 14.6 average finish.

I think my biggest takeaway from the 2017 season with Jamie was how good he was on a weekly basis without ever really being considered a ''threat'' to win. It was kinda crazy how often he would run between 8th-14th place. You rarely saw him in the top 5, but yet you could count on him hovering somewhere in the middle practically on race long. He had just 9 races, where he finished outside of the top 15. With 4 of those finishing happening in 4 straight races during the Nascar playoffs.

You can expect Jamie to be really good everywhere, but I believe he will be his best on the intermediate tracks. The CGR cars were really good at this type of track in 2017. I would like to point out that, he was very consistent on the 1.5 milers. I don't think he get nearly enough credit on how well he ran on them in 2017 as a whole! In the first 7 of 8 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he finished in the top 10. His lone non-top 10 finish? He finished 12th in May at Charlotte. In last three races on this type of track wasn't nearly as good though. He had finishes of 34th, 18th and 13th. I think a lot of that had to do with Jamie was already eliminated from playoffs contention, too. He also was very good on some of the larger intermediate tracks. Such as Michigan, where he swept the top 10 in both races. And Michigan's sister track (Cali), he also finished in the top 10 on.

What are Jamie's best tracks among the intermediate tracks? Michigan, Texas and Kentucky stand out when looking over the past couple seasons. I think Michigan is his best racetrack of the three though. Over the past three seasons, it is his best racetrack on the schedule. Over his last six races here, he has compiled 5 top 10 finishes. Over his last 8 Michigan races, he has compiled 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes, all coming in each of the last two seasons.

Kentucky and Texas are also solid intermediate tracks, but I would say the edge goes to Texas though. As there is more races at Texas than Kentucky each season. At Kentucky, he has scored back-to-back 7th place finishes in each of the last two season. In his last 5 seasons at Kentucky, Jamie has posted 3 finishes of 7th or better. That's great, but the sample size is small. His numbers at Texas are pretty good, too. In his last 7 starts, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes over that span. In last season's races, he posted finishes of 18th and 7th. In the spring race, he was very good and competitive enough to finish in the top 10. He finished 7th. In the fall race, he just wasn't the same. He finished a lap down in 18th. I do believe that was a fluke though. His success on intermediate in general in 2017 backs that theory up as well.

The shorter flats are always a strong area for Jamie Mac and that will be no difference in 2018, either! When looking at his numbers over the past couple seasons, it is hard to overlook his record at Richmond. He has been pretty good overall! In his last 7 races at this track, Jamie has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. Over his last 9 races at this track, he has compiled 5 top 7 finishes. In just his last three starts, he has compiled finishes of 14th, 6th and 7th. In spring 2017 and fall 2016, he had finishes of 6th and 7th. Both races, he had a driver over 101.0 each time. Statistically, that is really good for Jamie. It's definitely over his average on any given raceweekend. I would have to say that anything over the mid-80s is really good for Jamie Mac.

Phoenix is the next shorter flat track that I want to look at! Over the past two seasons, he has compiled 12.0 average finish at Phoenix. That ranked as his 10th-best track among the 22 tracks on the schedule. I wouldn't say that he is overly great at Phoenix, as most of his performances here don't stand out. But, he is very consistent though. Over his last 8 races at Phoenix, he has finished 15th or better in 7 of those 8 races. In 4 of those 8 races, Jamie has finished 11th or better. Including finishes of 6th and 11th in each of the last two November races. When in each of the last two Spring (March) have been 15th and 16th. His worse finishes has came in the spring races lately, well his better runs has been in the fall races. The opposite can be said in 2014 and 2015, as his better finishes came in the spring time with 2nd and 10th. While finishing 14th and 15th in the fall races. I guess the only thing we can take away from him at Phoenix is: He is just a consistent top 15 driver in general, who knows beyond that.

I would have to say that New Hampshire is his worst track among the shorter flats tracks. He just haven't been that good overall. In his last three races at New Hampshire, Jamie best finish in 16th place. In his last three races, he has compiled finishes of 19th, 17th and 16th. Good news? His has improved his finish position in each race. Only a position or two each time, but still progress though. However, he haven't found much success here in general since the 2014 season. In 5 of his last 8 races at New Hampshire, he has 16th or worse. Including 4 of his last 6 races overall. Of the three shorter flats tracks, I trust him the least at this place honestly.

Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. He has been really consistent at Bristol. Over his last 8 races at this track, he haven't finished worse than 14th in any of those races. That's really impressive, considering all of the messy races that we have seen there in recent seasons. I always go back to the August 2014 race, where he might had won that race, if he didn't have a bad pit stop and line up in the wrong line. He was just domiance in that event. He led 148 laps on his way to 8th place finish. Since then, he's been really good. Nothing close to being a top 5 driver, but he always get quality finishes though. In 4 of his last 5 races here, he has finished 12th or better. I think Martinsville is another good track. I think this place is just a Jamie's track. He understand how to get in a rhythm and be patience. Both of those things are key at Martinsville. In his last 6 races at this track, he has compiled 3 Top 10 finishes and 3 finishes of 23rd or worse. In his last 10 races, Jamie has 5 finishes in the top 10. He's basically batting .500 at Martinsville over the past 5 seasons. There aren't a lot of drivers who can say that, can they?

Plate tracks are always where a lot of people look at Jamie because of his track history. But I have to disagree with that. He has won at both Talladega and Daytona. But a lot of the times, he have found his way into an DNF. He haven't won at Daytona since the 2010 season and he haven't won at Talladega (or a race in general) since October 2013. At Daytona, Jamie haven't finished better than 14th since July 2013. He finished 7th back in July 2013. In 8 races since then, he have only produced 3 Top 15 finishes during that span. In 15 race since his last win (at Daytona), he have only produced 5 Top 15 finishes. That's just 30% of the time!

He's a little better at Talladega though. Since his last win in October 2013, he have produced 3 top 11 finishes in 8 races. All 3 finishes came in the May (spring) race in each of the last three seasons. His finishes in the spring races over the last three seasons are 4th, 2nd and 11th. His other five races since October 2013? 19th or worse in each race. Over his last 15 races (since October 2010) at Talladega, he has finished 19th or worse in 10 races. No disrespect to Jamie, but he's kinda overrated at these plate track. Good skills on this type of track, but he doesn't ever seem to get the results consistently!

The final type of track that we are going to look at is the road courses! Jamie has been pretty up and down on them throughout his entire career. I think he is a very skilled road course racer, which explains why he have had some very solid runs at Sonoma. And on more than a couple occasions, he have give away some strong finishes. In his last 4 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 3 finishes of 11th or better. He finished 10th in 2017. In 3 of his last 5 races here, he have started on the front row. I think he's a little more consistent at Watkins Glen over the past 5 seasons. In 4 of the last 5 races at Watkins Glen, he have finished 14th or better. He has finished 14th or better in 5 of the last 8 Watkins Glen races. I think Jamie's best contribution is his consistency. That has been his thing over the past couple seasons.

There's not a lot of things to say about Jamie Mac in 2018. He is exactly what we think he is. A consistent driver with a lack of upside. If you are looking for a safe driver, then he's usually your guy. But you won't see him contending for top 5 finishes that often though. Most weekends, he will run between 8th and 15th place. He will be at his best on the intermediate tracks and shorter flats. You cannot expect him to good on all of them. I say New Hampshire and Kansas are his worst two tracks on those kind of tracks. I think Bristol will be another great place for him, he have that consistency down there. Martinsville is another really good for him, I personally think he will be overlooked there actually. Might be a good place to be sneaky and use him. As for plate tracks, I would just stay away from him for the most part.

In 2018, I fully expect him to make the playoffs once again. But like last season, I don't see him making the Nascar playoffs via wins. I think it will be in on points. My top 3 places for him to win on would be Michigan, Richmond or Talladega. I don't really like him that much on the plate tracks, but his recent trends in the spring races are very encouraging!

2018 Jamie Mac Profile 

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18