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Friday, January 05, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ty Dillon

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Ty Dillon had a pretty unusually rookie season with the 13 team. As I pointed out in the profile in December, he showed a regression as the season went on. Most rookies tend to get better as the season goes on. Ty Dillon's best days were pretty early on in the season. In his first 22 races, he posted 16 top 20 finishes. He was very consistent. But then he hit that rookie wall and only collected 4 Top 20 finishes in the final 14 races. Obviously it doesn't take away from what he did accomplish, but I think certainly have to put a bitter taste in his mouth.

Shorter flats and plate tracks has been Ty's most consistent kind of tracks so far in his young career. I would give the edge to the shorter flats though. I only say that because he has a bigger sample size on them. Of the three shorter flats (Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire), he is by far the best at Phoenix. In his last three career starts at PIR, he has average finish of 14.0 with worst finish of 16th. He has finishes of 11th and 16th in last season's events. He had one of his best races of the season in November's race at Phoenix. He finished 11th, after starting 29th. That alone should tell you a lot about Dillon's performance. He posted a very solid driver rating of 82.9 as well. That is definitely above average driver rating for him, so that also lines up.

Between Richmond and New Hampshire, I would say they are both pretty equal. But I would have to give the edge to New Hampshire as Dillon's better track. In 2017, he had finishes of 16th and 22nd. He was nothing special in either race, but at least he was consistent. Of the two tracks, I think Richmond is more memorable to me though. I specifically remember being blown away by Dillon's performance in April's race. He was impressive that day. He drove through the field and was actually running just inside the top 10 or just outside of that mark for awhile. He didn't do it on pit road, either. He did most of it on the racetrack. Of course, he eventually found issues later in the race and faded to mid-pack. But I still thought it should be noted.

He was very consistent with the No.13 team on the plate tracks in his rookie seasons. In four races, he posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. He had finishes of 11th and 13th at Talladega. He also added 16th place finish in the July's Daytona race, too. This is no shocker as the 13 team has a lot of success with Casey Mears at both Daytona and Talladega. The small car team has found ways to succeed for years on this type of track!

Next, we are going to look at the larger flats of Pocono and Indy! He haven't been very competitive at either track so far in his career, but he had a theme in 2017 though. In three races on the larger flats last season, he had three finishes of 19th or better. In those three races, he had finishes of 17th, 18th and 19th. He was very consistent, but he probably wasn't a top 20 driver in any of those three races. But he found a way to get there in the end though. That's the important thing for him. Complete all of the laps and get a good result. He did exactly that on the larger flats in last season's races!

The short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville are the next tracks, I would like to look at. Bristol is a very interesting place for him. He finished 15th and posted 64.6 driver rating in last spring's race. But followed it up with DNF in the summer's race. He have only two starts under his belt with split outcomes. Good luck trying to figure out Dillon at Bristol for 2018! But he shouldn't be too bad though. I would say in the upper teens/low-twenties potential is likely! As for Martinsville, I wouldn't want to touch him. He just wasn't very good at Martinsville and really struggled from my recall. He finished both races off the lead-lap and had pair of ugly performances overall. His 22nd place finish last spring somewhat saves him, I guess. In terms of performance as a whole, his Martinsville's numbers were near the bottom.

The intermediate tracks was a weak spot in 2017 for Ty Dillon and nobody should be suprised. The 13 team doesn't have the speed or a driver with the experience to overcome their disadvantage. We knew that heading into the season and he didn't disappoint for the most part. But he had his share of solid runs, too. I would say that Atlanta and Kansas are his best two tracks so far in his very limited cup career!

Let's look at Kansas first, since he had a pair of starts in 2017 there. In two races, he had finishes of 16th and 14th. He also had a start there with the 33 team in 2015. He finished 26th in that race though. Back to 2017, he had a pair of strong outings. He started 22nd and 29th in those races, but finished on average 11.5 positions ahead of his original starting position. He didn't deserve that high of a finish in either race, as he was only a good low-20 sort of driver in both races. Still, I will give the kid some credit. He scored a pair of top 20 finishes at Kansas Speedway. Good for him, hopefully he can repeat that success in 2018, too!

He only made one start at Atlanta last season (obviously - because there's only one race), but certainly made it count though. He started 26th and finished 15th. This was his best finish on an intermediate track in 2017. He reminded me a lot of Casey Mears. As Mears had a lot of success in a similar fashion with the 13 team at Atlanta. In 2016, Dillon filled in for Stewart and finished 17th. When we compare the performances, Dillon actually ran a little better in the 13 car than he did with the 14 car in 2016. Because that makes complete sense, right? Still, two top 17 finishes is two top 17 finishes.

Road courses will be a type of track that I would stay away from Ty Dillon on! More so at Sonoma than Watkins Glen though. He finished 28th after starting from 35th at Sonoma. From a pure performance standpoint, I would consider it as one of his worst races of the season. He simply struggled the entire weekend as most young drivers do at a place like Sonoma. It didn't really surprise me at all. He was a lot better at Watkins Glen and scored a top 20 finish with 19th place. I wouldn't be against using him there in 2018, but I would rather wait and see on him there though.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com 

Twitter - @JeffNathans18