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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr was dominant here in 2017 and went to victory lane. He led 152 laps, after starting on the front row. And he has been strong on 1.5 mile tracks this season. In his last three races on 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, he has finished 4th or better. Including two 2nd place finishes. In 5 of 6 races this season on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished 5th or better. The lone race that he didn't? Texas, where he crashed into a wall. I have a feeling that Truex Jr will be very tough to beat. The 78 team probably has more momentum than anyone else right now (other than Kyle Busch maybe.) In 5 of the last 6 races, he has finished in the top 4. This is dating back to the Charlotte's race in May. There are many reason to love Truex this weekend!
2. Kyle Busch - You could rank Harvick, Busch and Truex Jr in any order among the top 3, in my opinion. So anyone that wants to make a case for Kyle Busch as driver No.1, I cannot blame them. Kyle Busch has a lot going for him. He can win on Saturday's night and he just might, if he get to the lead. I would not be shocked, if he took the lead early and runs away with it. He loves Kentucky. He is running all three races at Kentucky this weekend. Busch will start from 5th and will have a great shot to win. In 5 of the last 6 races this season, he has finished in the top 5. He has won a the last two 1.5 mile tracks this season. And he has won 3 of the last 4 races on the 1.5 mile tracks overall. I give Truex Jr the slight edge with having the best pit stall, but it not by much. Kyle Busch has all of the tools to get it done on Saturday night.
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick, like the other two drivers could easily go to victory lane. He's fast again this weekend, but he didn't qualify as well as we expected him to. I think Harvick will be up there batting it out for the win in no time. He will start in the top 10, so it is no big deal. I love Harvick, but not quite as much as the other two. His numbers are impressive this season. He has literally been top 5 or bust. If he finishes on the lead lap, he usually finishes in the top 5. Only 5 times this season has he finished worse than 5th. His finishes in those races are 7th, 19th, 31st, 35th and 40th. On 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 races this season. Including 3 wins, with the last one coming at Kansas.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has a great track record here at Kentucky and he has a pretty good car this weekend. He qualified in the top 5 and this is one of the places that I expected him to be strong at. Some tracks, we expect certain drivers to be contenders. This is one of the tracks where I would be disappointed with anything outside of the top 5 from Keselowski. I am usually not high on the No.2 car, but I am for this weekend. I don't really have a lot to say about him, but I have a pretty good feeling about him. He might be one of the safest picks for Saturday night's race!
5. Kyle Larson - Larson has been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks throughout his career and that hasn't changed this season. In his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks: 2nd, 7th and 4th. At Chicago, he had he car to beat at the end. But we all know what happened. Still finished 2nd place. Then, I think back to Kansas in May. He had the car to beat there and may had won, if he didn't get collected with Blaney. However, I do think his pit crew lost him that race. They made the wrong changes to his car on the next to final pit stop. That kinda point him a bad spot, but that is a ''what if'' situation. It was impressive to see him race his way to top 5 finish though. He is starting further back than I would like, but I think Larson will be a player on Saturday night.
6. Clint Bowyer - I have a great feeling about Clint Bowyer, as he is starting to run better than he has all season. Which is saying something, since he has been awesome since the start of the season. But lately, it feels like he has turned it up a notch though. He scored his first top 5 of the season on a 1.5 mile track at Chicago. I think he has a great chance to make it back-to-back or at very least make it close. I have him finishing between 4th and 7th. Personally, I would put him in the middle of that range.
7. Erik Jones - I really love Erik Jones this weekend. He is fresh off his first career win at Daytona! What does he do at Kentucky? Goes out and qualifies 2nd to former teammate and defending race winner, Martin Truex Jr! Not a bad way to start off the weekend, right? And Jones has been a very safe pick this season on this type of track. In 5 of 6 races this season on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 11. In 3 of his last 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished 7th or better. Including finishes of 4th at Texas, 7th at Kansas and 6th at Chicago. In his equipment, I think he is very capable of finishing in the top 10. In fact, I am kinda expecting it at this point!
8. Joey Logano - I am not a high believer in Logano, of the three Penske cars, I think he has the least amount of upside for Saturday's night race. However, I do believe he is a safer pick than his teammate's Ryan Blaney. But I will save that for later. Logano has been consistent this season, but he has yet to have that breakout race. For years, I had preached consistency. And I still preach that, but at some point you have to turn that consistency into something more. Especially, if you are a big-time driver like Logano. Of course, he has a win on the season. But, I don't think anyone is convinced that he is a race-winning contender on a weekly basis. In terms of speed, he is a top 10 guy and that is him every week. No difference this weekend at Kentucky!
9. Ryan Blaney - I think Blaney has tons of upside, but I also believe that Blaney has a knack for failing to met what's expected out of him. It has been a common theme this season, after starting the season off so strong. He had finishes of 6th and 8th at Pocono and Michigan, but otherwise it has been pitiful to watch him. In 7 of his last 10 races, he has finished 18th or worse. More bad news? He has finished 18th, 36th and 37th in his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks. Silver lining? He has improved his final finishing position in every race. But are you willing to take that gamble? He has a lot of risk, but of course a lot of upside!
10. Chase Elliott - I am not very high on Elliott this weekend at Kentucky. I am waiting for the 9 team to have that breakout performance, where he is super competitive for the entire race. And I have yet to see him be a top 5 guy for a entire race weekend. He has collected some top 5 finishes, but he haven't put a full-race together. Truth of the matter is Elliott isn't ready to win a race and he may not be this season. Elliott isn't anything beyond a top 10 pick here at Kentucky!
Just missed -
Kurt Busch
Aric Almirola
Jimmie Johnson
Ryan Newman
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr was dominant here in 2017 and went to victory lane. He led 152 laps, after starting on the front row. And he has been strong on 1.5 mile tracks this season. In his last three races on 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, he has finished 4th or better. Including two 2nd place finishes. In 5 of 6 races this season on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished 5th or better. The lone race that he didn't? Texas, where he crashed into a wall. I have a feeling that Truex Jr will be very tough to beat. The 78 team probably has more momentum than anyone else right now (other than Kyle Busch maybe.) In 5 of the last 6 races, he has finished in the top 4. This is dating back to the Charlotte's race in May. There are many reason to love Truex this weekend!
2. Kyle Busch - You could rank Harvick, Busch and Truex Jr in any order among the top 3, in my opinion. So anyone that wants to make a case for Kyle Busch as driver No.1, I cannot blame them. Kyle Busch has a lot going for him. He can win on Saturday's night and he just might, if he get to the lead. I would not be shocked, if he took the lead early and runs away with it. He loves Kentucky. He is running all three races at Kentucky this weekend. Busch will start from 5th and will have a great shot to win. In 5 of the last 6 races this season, he has finished in the top 5. He has won a the last two 1.5 mile tracks this season. And he has won 3 of the last 4 races on the 1.5 mile tracks overall. I give Truex Jr the slight edge with having the best pit stall, but it not by much. Kyle Busch has all of the tools to get it done on Saturday night.
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick, like the other two drivers could easily go to victory lane. He's fast again this weekend, but he didn't qualify as well as we expected him to. I think Harvick will be up there batting it out for the win in no time. He will start in the top 10, so it is no big deal. I love Harvick, but not quite as much as the other two. His numbers are impressive this season. He has literally been top 5 or bust. If he finishes on the lead lap, he usually finishes in the top 5. Only 5 times this season has he finished worse than 5th. His finishes in those races are 7th, 19th, 31st, 35th and 40th. On 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 races this season. Including 3 wins, with the last one coming at Kansas.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has a great track record here at Kentucky and he has a pretty good car this weekend. He qualified in the top 5 and this is one of the places that I expected him to be strong at. Some tracks, we expect certain drivers to be contenders. This is one of the tracks where I would be disappointed with anything outside of the top 5 from Keselowski. I am usually not high on the No.2 car, but I am for this weekend. I don't really have a lot to say about him, but I have a pretty good feeling about him. He might be one of the safest picks for Saturday night's race!
5. Kyle Larson - Larson has been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks throughout his career and that hasn't changed this season. In his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks: 2nd, 7th and 4th. At Chicago, he had he car to beat at the end. But we all know what happened. Still finished 2nd place. Then, I think back to Kansas in May. He had the car to beat there and may had won, if he didn't get collected with Blaney. However, I do think his pit crew lost him that race. They made the wrong changes to his car on the next to final pit stop. That kinda point him a bad spot, but that is a ''what if'' situation. It was impressive to see him race his way to top 5 finish though. He is starting further back than I would like, but I think Larson will be a player on Saturday night.
6. Clint Bowyer - I have a great feeling about Clint Bowyer, as he is starting to run better than he has all season. Which is saying something, since he has been awesome since the start of the season. But lately, it feels like he has turned it up a notch though. He scored his first top 5 of the season on a 1.5 mile track at Chicago. I think he has a great chance to make it back-to-back or at very least make it close. I have him finishing between 4th and 7th. Personally, I would put him in the middle of that range.
7. Erik Jones - I really love Erik Jones this weekend. He is fresh off his first career win at Daytona! What does he do at Kentucky? Goes out and qualifies 2nd to former teammate and defending race winner, Martin Truex Jr! Not a bad way to start off the weekend, right? And Jones has been a very safe pick this season on this type of track. In 5 of 6 races this season on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 11. In 3 of his last 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished 7th or better. Including finishes of 4th at Texas, 7th at Kansas and 6th at Chicago. In his equipment, I think he is very capable of finishing in the top 10. In fact, I am kinda expecting it at this point!
8. Joey Logano - I am not a high believer in Logano, of the three Penske cars, I think he has the least amount of upside for Saturday's night race. However, I do believe he is a safer pick than his teammate's Ryan Blaney. But I will save that for later. Logano has been consistent this season, but he has yet to have that breakout race. For years, I had preached consistency. And I still preach that, but at some point you have to turn that consistency into something more. Especially, if you are a big-time driver like Logano. Of course, he has a win on the season. But, I don't think anyone is convinced that he is a race-winning contender on a weekly basis. In terms of speed, he is a top 10 guy and that is him every week. No difference this weekend at Kentucky!
9. Ryan Blaney - I think Blaney has tons of upside, but I also believe that Blaney has a knack for failing to met what's expected out of him. It has been a common theme this season, after starting the season off so strong. He had finishes of 6th and 8th at Pocono and Michigan, but otherwise it has been pitiful to watch him. In 7 of his last 10 races, he has finished 18th or worse. More bad news? He has finished 18th, 36th and 37th in his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks. Silver lining? He has improved his final finishing position in every race. But are you willing to take that gamble? He has a lot of risk, but of course a lot of upside!
10. Chase Elliott - I am not very high on Elliott this weekend at Kentucky. I am waiting for the 9 team to have that breakout performance, where he is super competitive for the entire race. And I have yet to see him be a top 5 guy for a entire race weekend. He has collected some top 5 finishes, but he haven't put a full-race together. Truth of the matter is Elliott isn't ready to win a race and he may not be this season. Elliott isn't anything beyond a top 10 pick here at Kentucky!
Just missed -
Kurt Busch
Aric Almirola
Jimmie Johnson
Ryan Newman
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
