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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - A lot of people jumped off the Kyle Busch train last weekend and rightfully so. He finished 6th, but nobody was on the level of the No..4 and No.11 cars. They were truly in a class of their own and we knew that going into Indianapolis, too. As for this weekend, I doutbt that they will repeat that so easily. Kyle Busch is a master of Kentucky, he had years of practice at this track before it made it way to the cup schedule. I think that part of the reason why he's so darn good here, but he simply has been locked in here during his career regardless. Since the track debut in cup, he has a 4.7 career average finish with two career wins. His last win came in 2015, though. On the 1.5 mile tracks in 2020, he hasn't been bad but not very Kyle Busch-like. Through 5 races on this type of track, he has only two top 5 finishes and total of three top 6 finishes. That's nothing to laugh, but at same time it not really impressive. I say not ''really impressive'' compared to seasons' past where he would average a top 2 or top 3 finish on this type of track through this time of the season. If he wasn't on the pole and we weren't at Kentucky, I might not rank him this high. But this is his own personal playground!
2. Kevin Harvick - Remember earlier in the season when Kevin Harvick was nexting off top 5 finishes constantly, but couldn't win? A problem no more, as he is knocking top 5 finishes still and the wins are coming, too. He finished 22nd in last season's race at Kentucky, but prior to that he had 7 straight top 11 finishes. He has made 6 starts at Kentucky and his first 5 races ended in 9th or better. The 2016 event is the only race where he led any laps. I think Harvick will be very good as usual, but I am not expecting him to repeat the last couple weekend and look much better than 95% of the field. Harvick is one of the favorites, no make mistake about that!
3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has had a lot of speed this season, but bad luck has been the theme of his season. Once again at Indy (last weekend), he had more bad luck and it started after a couple laps. He went down on power early on and then he got into trouble o pit road. Yeah, it wasn't his day. However, he comes to a great track this weekend at Kentucky. He simply domianted in 2017 and 2018. He led over 150 laps in each race and averaged over 148.0 driver rating. Does anyone realize how stupid that is? I mean how? Truly incredible, folks. I am worried about Truex's bad luck, but at same time I am not. He has had fast cars all season and he's very capable of going to victory lane this weekend.
4. Chase Elliott - Early in Elliott's career, I realize what kind of driver that he is and that is a consistent one. And he isn't the consistent one whom goes out and run in the low to mid teens. He's the good kind of consistent whom will almost always be a top 10 contender and usually much more. His rookie year at Atlanta was probably the first time I notice it at the cup level. Here we are 4 years later and that still holds very true. I guess it shouldn't be too shocking that he has collected the most stages points this season. I believe HMS as a whole has improved from a year ago at this point, but I also believe that Elliott get less credit than he did a year. In 2020, his teammates also has had some pretty good runs. Which I believe takes away from Elliott a little. Not to say he hasn't been better (he has by far), but he stands out less than he did a year ago. He was the only solid driver and he still probably is the only solid driver. But his teammates, like I said, have improved as well. Bowman had a few strong runs early in the year and Byron/Johnson has had their moments, too. I guess my point is Elliott has been easily one of the most consistent drivers in the series and you should probably count on him again on Sunday's afternoon to deliver another quality finish!
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been really fast in 2020 and really been boom or bust at this point. I personally don't believe that Hamlin gonna be as good as he has been the last few weekends, but I think a lot of people are still going to be on the Hamlin train this weekend. I don't hate him and I don't love him. Much like the 2020 season, he has been boom or bust (to lesser extent) at Kentucky. In his last 6 Kentucky races, he has finished 17th or worse in three races. In his other three races? He has won two times and finished 10th in another. Now I wouldn't call that complete boom or bust, but he has a little bit to him in that regard. However, Hamlin might be your guy if you look at the last few 1.5 mile races. In his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 5 in all three races. He actually has finished in the top 2 in two of those races. Including leading 137 laps on his way to a win at Homestead.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has finished in the top 7 in 6 of his 9 career starts at Kentucky. Including 4 top 3 finishes and 3 of those finishes ending in wins. His win came in 2016. In 2 of his last 3 races at Kentucky, he has finished 20th or worse. On good end of things? He has led 5 of his last 6 races here. Including 3 of his last 4 races. So far in 2020, Keselowski has swept the top 10 on all five racs at the 1.5 mile tracks. Like I mentioned many times before, he isn't a sexy fantasy pick. But he will get the job done on a consistent basis. If you are just looking for a sound fantasy pick, then Keselowski should be at top of your list this weekend at Kentucky!
7. Ryan Blaney - Blaney went on insane run of strong finishes, so it was only a matter o time before he came back down to earth. Blaney is still that inconsistent driver, but he has proven to us that he is a superstar behind the wheel of the No.12 car! So far, he hasn't been anything special at Kentucky. In 4 career starts, he has only just 1 top 5 and 2 top 10 finishes. In his last three starts, he has finishes of 13th, 2nd and 10th. In 2018, he led a lap on his way to that 2nd place finish. He has been insanely good on the 1.5 mile tracks lately. As he has 4 straight finishes of 4th or better now. That No.12 car will be tough to beat this weekend most likely. If everything goes right, I think he will have a shot to finish ahead of some of these drivers above!
8. Joey Logano - Since Nascar returned, Logano hasn't impressed me. In 12 races (since Darlington's return in May), he has just 4 top 10 finishes and 2 of those top 10 finishes were 10th place. Including last weekend's finish at Indianapolis. In 5 of his last 8 races, he has finished 17th or worse. I am not saying that Logano can't run well, but he hasn't really shown the speed since early in the season. Until he starts running well again, I will personally be avoiding him and probably have a low opinion on him as a fantasy pick. Right now, I think you could do better than Joey Logano!
9. Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola keep proving the doubters wrong and knocked off another top 5 finish at Indy. He's at five straight top 5 finishes and will look to make it 6 straight top 5 finishes at Kentucky. I said last weekend that I doubted he would and he get the job done anyways. I has been impressed, but I really believe it comes to an end this weekend at Ketnucky. He did have a top 5 run at Homestead (most recent 1.5 mile track), but he has finished 15th or worse in other 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks. Personally, I don't believe he can keep up this pace. It has been insane, but at same time I think you always have to ride the hot hand. The data says he has been an average driver on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, except his most recent one. Where he was a legit top 5 driver. And then there's his momentum, where only Kevin Harvick probably has more. Personally, I am going to split the middle and say he finishes somewhere in the top 10!
10. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has been on the downslide after an impressive strench not too long ago. And his numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks been good, but not good as you would think. He put together 3 top 10 finishes in five races on 1.5 mile tracks. But he also has finishes of 25th and 17th. I am not super high on Kurt Busch this weekend. I think he has underperformed over the past few races and starting to show more inconsistency. Personally, I am backing away from Kurt and looking to use him down the more than right now. In 4 of his last 5 races, he has finished 13th or worse.
Just missed - William Byron, Alex Bowman, Erik Jones and Matt DiBenedetto
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - A lot of people jumped off the Kyle Busch train last weekend and rightfully so. He finished 6th, but nobody was on the level of the No..4 and No.11 cars. They were truly in a class of their own and we knew that going into Indianapolis, too. As for this weekend, I doutbt that they will repeat that so easily. Kyle Busch is a master of Kentucky, he had years of practice at this track before it made it way to the cup schedule. I think that part of the reason why he's so darn good here, but he simply has been locked in here during his career regardless. Since the track debut in cup, he has a 4.7 career average finish with two career wins. His last win came in 2015, though. On the 1.5 mile tracks in 2020, he hasn't been bad but not very Kyle Busch-like. Through 5 races on this type of track, he has only two top 5 finishes and total of three top 6 finishes. That's nothing to laugh, but at same time it not really impressive. I say not ''really impressive'' compared to seasons' past where he would average a top 2 or top 3 finish on this type of track through this time of the season. If he wasn't on the pole and we weren't at Kentucky, I might not rank him this high. But this is his own personal playground!
2. Kevin Harvick - Remember earlier in the season when Kevin Harvick was nexting off top 5 finishes constantly, but couldn't win? A problem no more, as he is knocking top 5 finishes still and the wins are coming, too. He finished 22nd in last season's race at Kentucky, but prior to that he had 7 straight top 11 finishes. He has made 6 starts at Kentucky and his first 5 races ended in 9th or better. The 2016 event is the only race where he led any laps. I think Harvick will be very good as usual, but I am not expecting him to repeat the last couple weekend and look much better than 95% of the field. Harvick is one of the favorites, no make mistake about that!
3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has had a lot of speed this season, but bad luck has been the theme of his season. Once again at Indy (last weekend), he had more bad luck and it started after a couple laps. He went down on power early on and then he got into trouble o pit road. Yeah, it wasn't his day. However, he comes to a great track this weekend at Kentucky. He simply domianted in 2017 and 2018. He led over 150 laps in each race and averaged over 148.0 driver rating. Does anyone realize how stupid that is? I mean how? Truly incredible, folks. I am worried about Truex's bad luck, but at same time I am not. He has had fast cars all season and he's very capable of going to victory lane this weekend.
4. Chase Elliott - Early in Elliott's career, I realize what kind of driver that he is and that is a consistent one. And he isn't the consistent one whom goes out and run in the low to mid teens. He's the good kind of consistent whom will almost always be a top 10 contender and usually much more. His rookie year at Atlanta was probably the first time I notice it at the cup level. Here we are 4 years later and that still holds very true. I guess it shouldn't be too shocking that he has collected the most stages points this season. I believe HMS as a whole has improved from a year ago at this point, but I also believe that Elliott get less credit than he did a year. In 2020, his teammates also has had some pretty good runs. Which I believe takes away from Elliott a little. Not to say he hasn't been better (he has by far), but he stands out less than he did a year ago. He was the only solid driver and he still probably is the only solid driver. But his teammates, like I said, have improved as well. Bowman had a few strong runs early in the year and Byron/Johnson has had their moments, too. I guess my point is Elliott has been easily one of the most consistent drivers in the series and you should probably count on him again on Sunday's afternoon to deliver another quality finish!
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been really fast in 2020 and really been boom or bust at this point. I personally don't believe that Hamlin gonna be as good as he has been the last few weekends, but I think a lot of people are still going to be on the Hamlin train this weekend. I don't hate him and I don't love him. Much like the 2020 season, he has been boom or bust (to lesser extent) at Kentucky. In his last 6 Kentucky races, he has finished 17th or worse in three races. In his other three races? He has won two times and finished 10th in another. Now I wouldn't call that complete boom or bust, but he has a little bit to him in that regard. However, Hamlin might be your guy if you look at the last few 1.5 mile races. In his last three races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has finished in the top 5 in all three races. He actually has finished in the top 2 in two of those races. Including leading 137 laps on his way to a win at Homestead.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has finished in the top 7 in 6 of his 9 career starts at Kentucky. Including 4 top 3 finishes and 3 of those finishes ending in wins. His win came in 2016. In 2 of his last 3 races at Kentucky, he has finished 20th or worse. On good end of things? He has led 5 of his last 6 races here. Including 3 of his last 4 races. So far in 2020, Keselowski has swept the top 10 on all five racs at the 1.5 mile tracks. Like I mentioned many times before, he isn't a sexy fantasy pick. But he will get the job done on a consistent basis. If you are just looking for a sound fantasy pick, then Keselowski should be at top of your list this weekend at Kentucky!
7. Ryan Blaney - Blaney went on insane run of strong finishes, so it was only a matter o time before he came back down to earth. Blaney is still that inconsistent driver, but he has proven to us that he is a superstar behind the wheel of the No.12 car! So far, he hasn't been anything special at Kentucky. In 4 career starts, he has only just 1 top 5 and 2 top 10 finishes. In his last three starts, he has finishes of 13th, 2nd and 10th. In 2018, he led a lap on his way to that 2nd place finish. He has been insanely good on the 1.5 mile tracks lately. As he has 4 straight finishes of 4th or better now. That No.12 car will be tough to beat this weekend most likely. If everything goes right, I think he will have a shot to finish ahead of some of these drivers above!
8. Joey Logano - Since Nascar returned, Logano hasn't impressed me. In 12 races (since Darlington's return in May), he has just 4 top 10 finishes and 2 of those top 10 finishes were 10th place. Including last weekend's finish at Indianapolis. In 5 of his last 8 races, he has finished 17th or worse. I am not saying that Logano can't run well, but he hasn't really shown the speed since early in the season. Until he starts running well again, I will personally be avoiding him and probably have a low opinion on him as a fantasy pick. Right now, I think you could do better than Joey Logano!
9. Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola keep proving the doubters wrong and knocked off another top 5 finish at Indy. He's at five straight top 5 finishes and will look to make it 6 straight top 5 finishes at Kentucky. I said last weekend that I doubted he would and he get the job done anyways. I has been impressed, but I really believe it comes to an end this weekend at Ketnucky. He did have a top 5 run at Homestead (most recent 1.5 mile track), but he has finished 15th or worse in other 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks. Personally, I don't believe he can keep up this pace. It has been insane, but at same time I think you always have to ride the hot hand. The data says he has been an average driver on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, except his most recent one. Where he was a legit top 5 driver. And then there's his momentum, where only Kevin Harvick probably has more. Personally, I am going to split the middle and say he finishes somewhere in the top 10!
10. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has been on the downslide after an impressive strench not too long ago. And his numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks been good, but not good as you would think. He put together 3 top 10 finishes in five races on 1.5 mile tracks. But he also has finishes of 25th and 17th. I am not super high on Kurt Busch this weekend. I think he has underperformed over the past few races and starting to show more inconsistency. Personally, I am backing away from Kurt and looking to use him down the more than right now. In 4 of his last 5 races, he has finished 13th or worse.
Just missed - William Byron, Alex Bowman, Erik Jones and Matt DiBenedetto
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
