2022 Fantasy Nascar DFS Picks and Fades

 Welcome to Timerssports

I thought last week was a really tough week to make picks at Auto Club because all of the unknowns and wrecks that occurred in practice/qualifying. So if you did poorly in DFS games, then you probably weren't alone. Your mindset in DFS always have to be short because you can suck one week and be awesome the next. How about this weekend? Who should you have your eyes on? Who are the top picks? How about who you should fade and stay away from? Excellent question and I have some answers to those questions! 

DFS top picks - 

Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has a fast car this weekend and should have a chance to lead laps in the early going. In practice, it looked like he had the best car. He had a little fall off after awhile, but it really not enough for me to be too worried. Especially with his team putting out those amazing pit stops. The No.5 driver is great at restarts and that is important here at Vegas with passing being tough. Larson has a massive pricetag, but if he leads a lot and finish in the top 3, then it be more than worth it! 

William Byron - I really like Byron this weekend and he has a very fast car. He was a lock for all my lineups soon as he qualified outside of the top 10. He has a real chance to finish in the top 5 and gain a handful of PD points. That what you want in DFS, a driver that has a chance with PD points and finish at least in the top 10. Don't go with a driver because he will gain bunch of positions, it is worthless without him finishing in the top 5 or top 10. Byron has tons of upside this weekend 

Kyle Busch - I don't know much I love Kyle Busch this weekend, but he is starting 37th and will likely finish in the top 10. It is hard to say though because he has zero laps in this car and we don't know how well this car will hold up. But if he stay on the lead lap, then he gonna be an easy pick this week. 

Ryan Blaney - Another driver that starts pretty high up that I really like. He has shown speed this weekend and has a great track record. I wouldn't be overlooking Blaney at all this weekend. Vegas is a great track for him and Penske has a knack for winning at this place over the past 10 years. I have a really good feeling about him overall. 

Joey Logano - Like his teammate, I am pretty high on Logano. These Penske cars are pretty good once again this weekend. Logano has a pricey pricetag, but I think he is more than worth it. I think he is a very nice option, if you are looking for a cheaper top guy than someone like Kyle Larson. Long as Larson don't lead like 150 or 200 laps, then you should be fine. 

Tyler Reddick - I think Reddick gonna be very good once again today and finish somewhere in the top 10. I like that a lot because I only see a couple guys coming from deep in the field and that should make him a great option when considering his price to other guys starting up front. I like maybe 3-4 guys outside of the top 10 more than i do Reddick

Kurt Busch - I don't really love Kurt Busch, but he is starting 31st and he will likely finish in the top 20 (if not better). I don't know what up with this team, but they have gotten off to a shitty start this season. But Kurt is a talented driver still and he should be able to advance at least 12 spots. I don't like going with drivers just because of PD points, but Kurt will likely be a lot closer to top 10 than he is to the top 20. Really, it all depends how your lineup is made up as well.  

Fades - 

Christopher Bell - I think Bell either gonna stay up in the top 5 all day or end up fading to latter part of the top 10. I don't hate Bell, but I just dont see him staying up front and put him as a disadvantage in DFS compared to guys that start further in the top 10 or just outside of the top 10. Straight up, yeah I say he is a top 5 to top 10 driver in terms of speed. But we always gotta factor in other things like consistency, trust, etc and I don't trust him far as I can throw him. He certainly could break even today as a DFS option, but I think there are better choices in the price range, though. 

Kevin Harvick - Harvick is starting 25th, so ideally he should be a great fantasy pick? I think most people would say that but I don't know after watch last week's race, though. I was very impressed and he hasn't blown me away this weekend yet. He did run a lot of laps in practice, but I just don't know if his pricetag will warrant selection. Really, I wouldn't even call this a fade because he is not a bad play. He is probably a good play, but I am just not expecting him to max out his value this weekend. So more of a warning? 

Martin Truex Jr - It may seem like I am picking on the Gibbs cars, but I am really not. So far, I am not very high on them. Bell is the only one that has shown legit speed and I have concerns about him. Truex Jr been meh all weekend in my opinion. It was same thing last weekend as well. That is probably the bigger reason why I am lower on him than normal because the Gibbs cars really weren't that good at Auto club, either. I would stay away from the Gibbs cars until we get a better idea about them overall

**All stats from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

2022 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (Vegas)

Welcome to Timerssports

Sleepers and Dark Horses can make or break your lineups. Like last week at Auto Club, I was high on Reddick. I knew it was his type of track and I knew he would be off people radars, so I gambled on him. He goes out and leads over 200 laps, but wrecks. We call that an calculated gamble in fantasy sports. I have played Fantasy Nascar for a long time and I have certainly lost a lot more times than I have won. Sometimes, it is because my gambles don't pay off and sometimes it is because I just have stupid dumb luck. Back if you nail picks that nobody else thinking about then you are gonna be money. 

From my own personal expereince, I remember an instance back in 2013. I believe it was Pocono (August race) and Jimmie Johnson started on the pole. This was when Yahoo was at it peak and we would have easy 100K-200K people playing. Anyways, 70% of the players had the pole sitter (as did I) as one of their A-drivers. So you don't bench the pole sitter, right? Well, I end benching him because I was deep in the hole in my league. I benched him for his  teammate (Kasey Kahne) whom hasn't won in well over a year started 20th. Johnson started from the pole and led basically every lap up to that point. Yeah, things aren't looking pretty. Then, after a pit stop, the 48 crew didn't get all the lugnuts tight. The No.48 car had to make an extra pit stop and he would go a lap down. At that same time, Kasey Kahne would gamble and stay out until a yellow came out. Kasey Kahne would end up leading rest of that event and winning. Kahne end up winning and I had 3 picks in the top 5. That's a prime example why sometimes it is worth to gamble on these lesser drivers. 

But let's not kid ourselves here, that was a one in a millon shot that would likely never happen again. What we saw with Reddick at Auto Club had a chance to be something special, but that why it is important for us to look for sleepers and dark horses each week. Now, I am not saying you should take a risk on them every time, no. 9 years ago, when I gambled on Kahne, I would do those dumb plays pretty often. As the years goes by, I have learned to be more selective. The more risky the pick, the more the reward could be, but 9 times out of 10, I wouldn't try going for a homerun on a ball that will likely only be at best a double. 

Okay I have talked enough, let's get into some fantasy picks for the weekend! 

Sleepers - 

Daniel Hemric - He was excellent last week and scored a top 10 finish. Even though, he was 6 laps down at one point. He was strong all weekend and guess what? He is showing a lot of similar speed this weekend as well. I bet he could finish in the top 20 again this weekend, too. He will be starting 16th and showed some speed again on Saturday. He was 8th on the 5 and 10 lap averages, then he was 6th on the 15-lap average chart. If he can once again have that speed translate, then I love this pick. He certainly a value pick this weekend and should be on everyone's radar as a possible sleeper pick

Daniel Suarez - There really wasn't any sleepers that I love when looking at practice and qualifying, but Suarez is someone that I really like, though. He is starting from 21st and should be able to squeeze into the top 20 and probably stay there most of the day. He is not that fancy pick that gonna put you over the top, but he is a quality fantasy option that will give you an chance to load up on heavy hitter at top of your lineups. The difference between him and other guys in his price range in DFS is he will most certainly finish in the top 20. Other guys? Not so much

Dark Horses - 

William Byron - I am probably higher on Byron than I have been in his cup career, I think he has a car that is good enough to challenge for the win and possibly be the car to beat. He was very strong in practice, so I don't know what exactly happened in qualifying. He should had been better than 13th, but that makes him a great fantasy option in DFS. Watch out for the No.24 car today because he gonna be someone to reckon with I believe! 

Tyler Reddick - Even after that performance last week, I think people are still down on him and I can understand why. I don't trust him, so I think people will stay away from him some this weekend. I don't hate him and I kinda hope he does better than I have him ranked. I placed him 9th place in my race rankings. Which, I think is very fair. I say his likely finish range is 7th-11th. If he can get 6th or higher than I say that is all gravy. His speed was very good in practice and was around 6th on the lap average charts. Reddick has enough upside where you should probably consider him in a few of your lineups!

***All stats from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

2022 Fantasy Nascar Weekend Breakdown (Vegas 1)

 Welcome to Timerssports

For several years, Jeff Nathans had an article here at Timerssports and that piece was called ''Fantasy Nascar Update''. I am taking over that piece, but I want to make it my own. So I have decided to rename it, but it will be the same concept, though. I am gonna look at the top 10 drivers for the weekend and breakdown their chances and give my personal opinions on each driver. I do appericate Nascar giving the drivers a short practice session each week, but the data is still small. I hope in the future, they will give them multiple practice sessions again. I miss those days where we will see two practice sessions and qualifying as well. I am also very interested in how much last week's results will translate into this week? Will we see as many spins and/or tire issues? Will some of the surprise teams keep going strong? Will the expected strong teams be able to rebound? Folks, we are gonna find out very soon! 

1. Kyle Larson - Folks, it wasn't what we expected from Kyle Larson for about 80% of the event. He was good, but he wasn't race winning good. Idk, if it was a combination of drivers crashing or his team getting him better as race went on, but Larson had the best car for those final 50 laps. As for this weekend, he has one of the best cars (in my opinion) on Saturday. He will start 2nd on Sunday afternoon. I believe that Larson is the odds on favorite to win and it comes on an intermediate track. He is tough to beat on these tracks in 2021 and I think he will be very tough to beat this weekend. He isn't starting 13th like he did last week, he is starting from 2nd. I think you should be worried, if you are thinking about betting against him. 

2. Chase Elliott - Elliott looks really good once again this weekend and will start in the top 5. I really loved what I saw last weekend from the Hendrick cars and I feel the same way from the speed from them again. This is the type of track that they perform the best on. Everything we have seen the past two weekends say the Hendrick cars should be the heavy favorites again, and so far this weekend at Vegas that has been the case.

3. Ryan Blaney - Even dating back to his days at the Wood brothers, Ryan Blaney has been great at Vegas. Every time he comes here, he seems to be very good. Bad sign for the competition? He was fast off the truck and he has displayed some very good long run speed in practice. Combine that with a strong showing at Auto Club and a great track record in recent years? He should be employed in every kind of format. You know how you know you should trust him? I am not very often super high on Blaney, but folks I am very high on him. That alone should tell you something!

4. Christopher Bell - Bell is starting from the pole and was higher on the 10 and 15 lap averages in practice than the drivers above him, but I don't really trust Bell that much. But he is very strong this weekend, though. He is starting from the pole and looks by far the best Gibbs car. Which is odd because I would had expected his teammates to be stronger than him. Then again, he looked top 5 good in practice at Auto Club and was a teen-like driver all race long. I think Bell could be a make or break to fantasy lineups. You play him and he flops? You are screwed. You play him and he kills it? You are sitting pretty. Practice data says, he is a top 5 driver. If he can lead laps and finish in the top 5, then I say he is worth gambling on. I think that is the most likely thing to happen

5. Joey Logano - Logano, like his teammate, he is looking pretty fast this weekend. Much like last weekend, he is showing top 5 speed. Vegas has always been a good track for Penske and I would gladly take a shot with him this weekend. I think Logano might be a little under the radar overall and be a very good option to go off-sequence with. Clearly a lot of people will be on the Larson bandwagon and probably all the Hendrick cars. Same with his teammate, Ryan Blaney, but don't overlook the No.22 driver. He will likely mix it up in the top 5 and contend for the win. 

6. Denny Hamlin - You know I am not very high on Hamlin and I could drop him a few spots, if I wanted to. But I am gonna give him benefit of the doubt and believe he gonna race better. With that said, he didn't many any real long runs. He did enough long runs to appear on the 10-lap average, but he was only 11th fastest, though. A lot like last weekend, I wasn't super impressed by him in practice on the longer runs in practice. I think he will be somewhere in the top 10. I say somewhere between 6th and 8th most likely. He isn't a bad option, but I don't think I would play him in DFS, though. 

7. William Byron - I have  trust issues with Byron sometimes and for that reason, I have him lower than I should. In terms of speed, he was awesome last week and should had contended for a race win. However, he got caught up in someone's else mess. But he is looking just as strong this weekend. He probably had the best long run speed in practice, when we look at the averages. Like I said these Hendrick cars are really good this weekend.

8. Kyle Busch - Hard to say how good Busch is this weekend because he wrecked his primary car in practice and using a backup car. Sounds like that car was suppose to be a ''parts car'' for Joe Gibbs Racing. Yeah it is not very ideal for Rowdy, but guessing his team been working effortlessly all weekend to get ready for today's race. So I couldn't tell you what to expect from him, but he gonna be one of the top picks this weekend by far in DFS. He gonna be an awesome play, if he can finish in the top 10. Honestly, I am not sure if he is playable (outside of DFS). 

9. Tyler Reddick - I was pretty high on Reddick last weekend, but man did he surprise me! He was by far the best driver at Auto Club, but he didn't get that fairy tale ending that he deserved! I don't think he looked as strong this weekend so far, but he didn't look like that in practice, either. I think these are two completely different tracks. I think one of the reasons that i loved him so much last weekend was because it was his type of track. Vegas is a different animal and you really don't have a chance to stay up against the wall to find that extra speed. So I think he will be top 10 good, I just don't see him being a possible race winning driver. 

10. Alex Bowman - I say Bowman the slowest of the Hendrick cars but he has top 10 upside to him, so I would gladly gamble on him this weekend at Vegas. He was pretty decent on the lap averages, though. I think he is also starting further back among the Hendrick cars, too. So he could be a solid fantasy option in DFS, if you are looking for PD points. But for his price tag, I wish I had more faith in him for being a top 5 finisher. I just don't see it. I feel good about that, so if you good with that then I say go with him.

***All stats from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com