Welcome to Timerssports
Sleepers and Dark Horses can make or break your lineups. Like last week at Auto Club, I was high on Reddick. I knew it was his type of track and I knew he would be off people radars, so I gambled on him. He goes out and leads over 200 laps, but wrecks. We call that an calculated gamble in fantasy sports. I have played Fantasy Nascar for a long time and I have certainly lost a lot more times than I have won. Sometimes, it is because my gambles don't pay off and sometimes it is because I just have stupid dumb luck. Back if you nail picks that nobody else thinking about then you are gonna be money.
From my own personal expereince, I remember an instance back in 2013. I believe it was Pocono (August race) and Jimmie Johnson started on the pole. This was when Yahoo was at it peak and we would have easy 100K-200K people playing. Anyways, 70% of the players had the pole sitter (as did I) as one of their A-drivers. So you don't bench the pole sitter, right? Well, I end benching him because I was deep in the hole in my league. I benched him for his teammate (Kasey Kahne) whom hasn't won in well over a year started 20th. Johnson started from the pole and led basically every lap up to that point. Yeah, things aren't looking pretty. Then, after a pit stop, the 48 crew didn't get all the lugnuts tight. The No.48 car had to make an extra pit stop and he would go a lap down. At that same time, Kasey Kahne would gamble and stay out until a yellow came out. Kasey Kahne would end up leading rest of that event and winning. Kahne end up winning and I had 3 picks in the top 5. That's a prime example why sometimes it is worth to gamble on these lesser drivers.
But let's not kid ourselves here, that was a one in a millon shot that would likely never happen again. What we saw with Reddick at Auto Club had a chance to be something special, but that why it is important for us to look for sleepers and dark horses each week. Now, I am not saying you should take a risk on them every time, no. 9 years ago, when I gambled on Kahne, I would do those dumb plays pretty often. As the years goes by, I have learned to be more selective. The more risky the pick, the more the reward could be, but 9 times out of 10, I wouldn't try going for a homerun on a ball that will likely only be at best a double.
Okay I have talked enough, let's get into some fantasy picks for the weekend!
Sleepers -
Daniel Hemric - He was excellent last week and scored a top 10 finish. Even though, he was 6 laps down at one point. He was strong all weekend and guess what? He is showing a lot of similar speed this weekend as well. I bet he could finish in the top 20 again this weekend, too. He will be starting 16th and showed some speed again on Saturday. He was 8th on the 5 and 10 lap averages, then he was 6th on the 15-lap average chart. If he can once again have that speed translate, then I love this pick. He certainly a value pick this weekend and should be on everyone's radar as a possible sleeper pick
Daniel Suarez - There really wasn't any sleepers that I love when looking at practice and qualifying, but Suarez is someone that I really like, though. He is starting from 21st and should be able to squeeze into the top 20 and probably stay there most of the day. He is not that fancy pick that gonna put you over the top, but he is a quality fantasy option that will give you an chance to load up on heavy hitter at top of your lineups. The difference between him and other guys in his price range in DFS is he will most certainly finish in the top 20. Other guys? Not so much
Dark Horses -
William Byron - I am probably higher on Byron than I have been in his cup career, I think he has a car that is good enough to challenge for the win and possibly be the car to beat. He was very strong in practice, so I don't know what exactly happened in qualifying. He should had been better than 13th, but that makes him a great fantasy option in DFS. Watch out for the No.24 car today because he gonna be someone to reckon with I believe!
Tyler Reddick - Even after that performance last week, I think people are still down on him and I can understand why. I don't trust him, so I think people will stay away from him some this weekend. I don't hate him and I kinda hope he does better than I have him ranked. I placed him 9th place in my race rankings. Which, I think is very fair. I say his likely finish range is 7th-11th. If he can get 6th or higher than I say that is all gravy. His speed was very good in practice and was around 6th on the lap average charts. Reddick has enough upside where you should probably consider him in a few of your lineups!
***All stats from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com
