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My friends this is the article that will make or break your fantasy lineup. Anyone can pick the studs, but finding that value is your fantasy nascar lineup is the key. But before we get to the fun stuff, it is time for my yearly rant about people misusing these terms. Make no mistake, both ''sleepers'' and ''dark horses'' certainly have similarities, but they aren't always interchangeable. Dark horse are drivers that could possibly challenge for a win, but we don't expect them to. Think of someone like Tyler Reddick the past couple seasons. We knew he had the talent, but we didn't expect him to win or challenge for the win. That's a perfect dark horse candidate. Sleeper? Well typecially we are speaking more in ''value'' than the overall potential. That value will change throughout the season, too. Michael McDowell is a great example of being a sleeper pick. He usually held that value because the market would always undervalue him which made him a great sleeper pick at back-end of your fantasy lineup. See the difference?
Sleepers -
Chase Briscoe - Briscoe is an interesting option this weekend. He ended 2022 season with 2 top 5 finishes in his final 3 races on intermediate tracks. He was a major plus for someone like him that was pretty inconsistent for the most part. He certainly had his moments and some of those moments came on the intermediate tracks, too. He posted 3 of his 6 top 5 finishes at Charlotte, Las Vegas and Texas. He also had top 16 runs at Atlanta (twice), Kansas and Dover. Starting to see why I am probably higher than most on him? He also finished 16th at Cali last season and led 20 laps. There will be a market for Chase Briscoe on these intermediate tracks because he will be undervalue. Now, some weeks there will be less value than others, but he is one driver to keep an eye a nice sleeper play to sneak into your lineup!
Austin Dillon - You could put him more as a dark horse pick, but I don't really view him that way yet because he really hasn't proven that he can hang more towards the front as oppose to the teens where he will likely be more times than not. With Dillon, you have to use him where he is a strength. He loves these fast tracks, more specifically he love these big fast tracks like Cali and Michigan. I remember back at Michigan in 2016, I was listening to the radio and they had a interview with him confessing his love for big fast tracks. Cali fits the type and he was a top 15 performer in 2022! In 2022 at Cali, he finished 2nd here at Cali. He finished 13th at Michigan. With the addition of Kyle Busch, I think Austin Dillon and RCR can get to that next level. At some point this season, we might be viewing him as a dark horse. He is really good here at Cali, too. If you are looking to sneak a fantasy pick into your lineup that has a high floor and high ceiling, but probably be overlooked a little? Austin Dillon just might be your secret weapon this weekend
Dark Horses -
William Byron - I been a big believer in Willy B the last couple seasons and I honestly thought from the eye test that he had his best season in his cup career. But his overall numbers were a little better in 2021. Of course, he went 13 straight races (from Homestead to Charlotte) in 2021 with top 11 finishes. Then added a few more top 5 finishes in the month of June before falling off a little in 2021. He ended the year pretty strong, though. As he posted 4 Top 11 finishes in the final 5 races. In 2022, he was also very strong. He had less top 5s, top 10s, etc and a weaker average finish. However, he also led more laps and posted more wins. Also two wins in first 10 races, he fell off again middle portion of the season. But he was stronger to end the season, though. As he finished in the top 13 in the final 9 of 10 races. Like his teammates, Willy B will have advantage of some of his competitors at these fast tracks.
Erik Jones - He wouldn't been someone that I put as a dark horse a year ago, but he was great last season with the No.43 car! Simply amazing and beat any expectations that I had for him and that team. We all knew that Erik was a talented dude and that was clear way back before he even got to cup. I think it took him leaving JGR for us to realize that this guy is waaaaay more talented than we remember. And that is no shot at Erik because anyone can drive a top tier car to the front, it takes someone special to do it with something less. He won at Darlington, that was the standout race for him. But he was strong on these intermediate and I make a case it was the strength of this time. He was a top 15 performer often, but it wasn't until 2nd half of the season, where we are going like, ''okay this team is onto something''. He won at Darlington, then followed it with some top 10 runs at Las Vegas and Texas. Prior to his win at Darlington, he also a 8th place run at Michigan in August and a top 10 run at Atlanta. What makes me super excited about him this weekend? His 3rd place showing last year at this track. He was super competitive in that race and held a stout driver rating throughout the event. He also finished 8th at it's sister track at Michigan! I wouldn't bet against him getting another top 10 finish this weekend and possibly more!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
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