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We are back at it this weekend with some racing, but sadly it gonna be more challenging than we would like for us fantasy players. As both practice and qualifying has been cancelled, which means we are headed into Sunday's race pretty much blindfolded. We can take a guess on who will be strong and probably have a decent shot at being right based on 2022 results. But it will come with a little risk, but anything is a risk on any given race weekend. But we will solider on and try our best with the hand that we have been dealt with! As you can guess the point of this article is to breakdown the competition this weekend and it will basically be the Fantasy Nascar Update (one of our most popular posts for years) with just a different name to it!
Let's get rolling!
1. Joey Logano - Logano was in my top 3 headed into the weekend and it is hard to not put him at No.1, though. He was probably 2nd headed into the week for me (with Larson being No.1) and he will start a dozen spots higher than the 5. Logano has everything you could ask for in a fantasy pick, honestly. He's coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona, he was really good on intermediate tracks in 2022 and has a solid history of finishing up front at Cali. Not to mention, he's the defending cup champion for a reason! When you combine his equipment, starting position and other numbers, I think you gotta put him as the odds on favorite to win on Sunday afternoon!
2. Kyle Larson - Larson is a great option this weekend and was in my view the odds on favorite headed into the weekend. He will start 15th and that kinda hurt him a little, but it don't mean he cant go up front and lead a lot of laps. Larson was extremely strong at end the season in 2022 on these intermediate tracks. Larson is a former winner here at Cali and is actually the defending race winner here, too. Larson is very capable of getting to the front and being one of the heavy favorites to win on Sunday! He might be the best play this weekend in DFS games, as he offers winning upside and some differential points. However, he will cost you top dollar money, no question! He will be worth it, though!
3. Martin Truex Jr - I am a lot higher on Truex Jr than most people probably are and I think he gonna be a contender here at Cali! I think in general, he is a great fantasy pick and won't cost quite as much in DFS games as the two mentioned above (I haven't looked at prices though). Truex Jr should have plenty of motivation this weekend and I loved what I saw from him a few weeks ago out in LA. Let's see if that speed will translate to the 2-mile fast track!
4. Kyle Busch - Busch is starting outside of the top 20, but I think he will be one of the guys at the front before it is over! He has been amazing here in his cup career. In 23 starts, he has produced 11 top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes. He seems to show up here with a very fast car almost every time and overall RCR isn't a real downgrade to me. They were fast last season with Reddick and I think that gonna be the same deal this weekend (and this season) with the new driver of the No.8 car
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been great at 2-mile tracks over the past couple seasons, as he has compiled 6.2 average finish at these large intermediate tracks since 2020. He also was pretty strong on intermediate tracks in general in 2022. I don't think Hamlin is getting the love that he should this weekend as there are so many interesting top options to pick from. He is someone with top 10 floor and top 5 (and more) upside. He is very capable to challenge for a top 5 finish and I be shocked if he wasn't up front at some point in the race!
6. Chase Elliott - I am honestly not super high on Elliott this weekend for whatever reason and I really don't know why besides starting very deep in the field. He has all the intangibles to be a top tier fantasy pick and will most likely be a top 10 finisher, if not more. He will probably be a very good DFS pick, but in generally I think he won't get to be anything more than a top 10 driver. He might challenge for a top 5, but my gut tells me no that he won't
7. Ross Chastain - I could probably put Ross higher on this list as I think he will have the speed to jump a couple of these guys. But if we learned anything about Mr. Chastain in 2022, then it is he's a true wildcard on the racetrack. Now, if I was certain that he had top 3 speed, then I would probably put him closer to that top 3. But with no practice or qualifying, I really don't know if I can totally trust him. So he is a little lower on my list than he would if he actually had cars on the track this weekend!
8. Christopher Bell - Bell is starting on the pole, but I don't think he is a very good DFS pick as he will likely fall from the race lead and only be a top 10 driver. At times in 2022, he showed off top 5 speed. However, if you use him in DFS, then you will need him to lead laps and finish in the top 3. I don't think he leads a chunk of the laps or finishes in the top 3. Again, there is no data for us to look at, but history says he will be a top 10 finisher. However, he will probably not be a race winning contender
9. William Byron - Willy B is one of the most interesting drivers over the past two seasons. He had a better 2021 season (than 2022), but the eye test says he was better in 2022. He did get more wins and finish higher in points in 2022. However, he was overall more consistent and had more top 5 (and top 10) finishes in 2021. Still, he was pretty good in both seasons and was really good on these intermediate tracks both seasons. He contended for wins a few times in 2022, too. It is hard to say if he will be capable of that this weekend, but I say he is at least in for a top 10 run on Sunday. Willy is a talented dude, so I say he upside to contend for a top 5. But as low as I got him, I personally don't believe that is likely for the No.24 car on Sunday.
10. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is a very interesting play this weekend, as he is making his 750th start. I think Harvick was okay last season, but SHR was down on speed in 2022 overall. So it will be interesting to see if those cars are back to par with the competition. I think in general, Harvick performance was down more a few of his teammates. We expect such a high standard from him with his time at SHR, and at times he was the 2nd or 3rd best SHR driver. I really want Harvick to be a viable fantasy option this season. I just don't know if we will see that same guy that can contend for wins, we might have to go back to settling for just top 10 finishes out of him. I kinda get the feeling that what we will be seeing out of Kevin Harvick
Just missed -
Ryan Blaney
Austin Dillon
Daniel Suarez
Tyler Reddick
Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com
Twitter - @Garryy12