CFB Betting Predictions (Friday edition - 10/6)

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It was a rough go around last night as I whipped on all three of my recommendations. Now, they weren't bad predictions when you look at the games as a whole. Liberty was too sloppy with the football, despite killing Sam Houston St in yards, it was not converting on 3rd down and silly mistakes that made it such a close contest. Their defense allowed too many easy throws, too. In the LA Tech and Western Kentucky game, I think LA Tech defense just got off to slow of a start. Western Kentucky had 3 long Touchdowns of over 50 yards because very sloppy tackling and thinking they go out of bounce they would get force to the sidelines. In the second half, Western Kentucky had two first downs and 0 points. They just came up a little short. 

We will move onto Friday night and try to bounce back. The Friday night games have been very good to me overall. So I am hoping that trend continues and we can get back on track tonight. There are two College Football games on tonight and I am gonna break down both of them!

Kansas state vs Oklahoma state 

Current line as of posting: -11.5/+11.5

I think people kinda forget how good Kansas state really is because of Texas and Oklahoma stealing the show. In wins this season, Kansas state has average roughly 40 points per game and won by multiple TDs in all three wins. Their lone loss? It was a ridiculous long FG by Missouri with a couple seconds left. It should be also noted that Missouri has a great defense and Kansas state still managed 27 points in that contest. Oklahoma state doesn't have a defense like that. When you are looking at Oklahoma state's schedule, their best two opponents has been Iowa State and South Alabama. They loss both of those games. Another reason to like Kansas state? They have a great run defense so Oklahoma would have to get in a shootout with Kansas state to stay pace. For a team being in the bottom 3 in scoring offense and total yards per game, I don't think that is wise. The Oklahoma state defense also ranked bottom half of the league so far in most categories as well. 

End of the day, I don't think this Oklahoma state is very good on both side of the ball. I think Kansas state has the upper hand on both side of the ball and I fully expect them to go up double digits by halftime. It is hard seeing this game being a one or even two score game when it is all said and done! Take Kansas state and lay the points with them!

Recommendation - Kansas state -11.5 and up to -14

Nebraska vs Illinois

Current line as of posting: +3.5

Folks, this is gonna be an ugly one. I am personally not betting on this game because when two bad teams play like this then bad things will happen. I do believe the right play on this game is getting the points with Nebraska. I believe that for a couple reasons, frankly. I think Nebraska has the advantage up front in the trenches on both side of the ball. Neither team can pass, but I believe Nebraska has a bigger strength in running the football vs a bad run defense. I think that matchup will be key because if Nebraska are capable of running the football, I think the getting a FG and the hook is excellent value. What if they can't? Well, I think Nebraska has a lot bigger issues than I originally thought and I wasn't high on them to begin with. 

I want to like Illinois here, but they have been maybe the biggest disappointment in the Big 10 this season. Considering this is a team that won 10 games a year ago. This is also team that expected to be a good defensive team once again and been god awful instead. I think that what made them so good in 2022, it was their defensive unit. It has taken a step back and this team cant move the ball on offense. They will look to run on early downs and pray they don't get into 3rd and long. They don't pass the ball well, but I think they are more capable than Nebraska. However, I think Nebraska is more capable of forcing them behind the chains than Illinois is  

This could be ugly game and I rather have the points with Nebraska in this spot!

Recommendation - Nebraska +3.5 

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Garry Briggs   

CFB/NFL Betting Predictions (Thursday Edition 10/5)

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Happy Thursday, sports fans! For the next 7 weeks, there is football on every single day of the week! We all have an excellent chance to win a lot of money, but we also have to be smart about so we have enough money to bet everyday. There is a big difference in betting a couple times a week and 7 days a weeks for extended period time! The first day (yesterday), we got off a decent start. I put two units on Jacksonville st (+3.5) and then 1 unit on under 52. Jacksonville state came back and won by 45-30 after being down 23-7. However, the under didn't hit. I didn't love the under not cashing, but I ended up a little over half unit up for the night. So what should we do for day 2? It is hard to say since there is only a couple games on. I will give you my personal plays for each game. There are two College Football games on and one NFL game on. Let's dig in!

Liberty vs Sam Houston State

Current line as of posting: -20.5/+20.5

You know I originally thought making this my favorite play of the night, but I have since taken a step back. Not because I don't think this is a blowout. Because this game has the making of a complete utter manslaughter. Liberty has one of the best offenses in the nation and ranked in the top 10 in points per game and yards. They are number 2 in rushing offense to only Air Force. They rack up over 270 yards per game on the ground and still average over 200 yards through the air. They are lethal on offense and their defensive rankings are all very strong. Sam Houston State are dead last in points per game and only once topped double digits points in a game. That happened to be in their last game, where they went crazy for 28. As crazy as it sounds, that worried me. Now, do I think that was fluke? You bet your bottom dollar, I do. I think Liberty will roll Sam Houston State pretty good. Personally, I don't like backing heavy favorites though. So I won't have any money in this game, but I think there is a strong chance Liberty is up by at least two and a half touchdowns by halftime. Back Liberty on the spread at 20.5. I would go up to 21.0, if I had

Official recommendation: Liberty -20.5

Western Kentucky vs LA Tech

Current line as of posting: -6/+6

This will be the best game of the three and there are two plays that I actually would recommend, which would depend how you want to play it. Western Kentucky is the 6 points favorite in this matchup, which is fair since they are regarded as one of the top teams in CUSA. But are they? They have taken a noticeable step back this season compared to last season. Austin Reed is a stud at QB, but they aren't moving the ball as well as last season. He getting pressured at a lot high rate than a year ago and his WRs are dropping balls at a higher rate than a year ago. On other side, Western Kentucky defense has been inconsistent and hasn't been able to effectively stop the run. Their pass defense is still pretty decent, though. LA Tech isn't anything special, especially if the backup is playing again. That isn't why I like them in this matchup, though. They have excellent secondary and quite possibly one of the best outside of the Power 5. One thing about Western Kentucky this season is, they haven't fair well vs good secondaries. This will be one of those games. So do I think Western Kentucky win by a full touchdown? I don't and I also believe the total of 59.5 is way too high for this matchup based on things we have already discussed! 

My official recommendation: LA Tech +6 (down to +5.5) or under 59.5 (down to 56.5)

Bears vs Commanders 

Current line as of posting: -6/+6

I just want it to be known that I will not be playing anything on Thursday night football. Now, I do feel decent about the play that I am writing up about. However, I have zero interest in watching a game between the Bears and Commanders. That just sounds awful, the only people watching that game are those respected fanbases or sicko that bet on because they feel they need to bet on the NFL. Not me, though. However, if I were looking at an angle for this game. I think the spread for this game is a little too high overall. Look, the Bears suck. We all know that, but I don't personally think the Commanders are all that much better. At least not a full Touchdown better. I think Justin Fields will get loose in the opening field and be able to move the football. It also should be noted that teams that played Overtime on the previous Sunday, went 1-8 on the spread on Thursday night football. That is not a good number. I don't love the Commanders secondary, either. Justin Fields isn't a good passer, but as Denver showed us that bad secondaries can make even bad quarterbacks look good. Washington is better than Denver, but I think Fields will hit some plays and keep this game close enough. Remember this is the NFL, we don't see blowouts every game. I think this spread is simply too high

Official recommendation: Bears +6

Have a question or comment?

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Thanks for reading, 

Site Owner 

Garry Briggs