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It was a rough go around last night as I whipped on all three of my recommendations. Now, they weren't bad predictions when you look at the games as a whole. Liberty was too sloppy with the football, despite killing Sam Houston St in yards, it was not converting on 3rd down and silly mistakes that made it such a close contest. Their defense allowed too many easy throws, too. In the LA Tech and Western Kentucky game, I think LA Tech defense just got off to slow of a start. Western Kentucky had 3 long Touchdowns of over 50 yards because very sloppy tackling and thinking they go out of bounce they would get force to the sidelines. In the second half, Western Kentucky had two first downs and 0 points. They just came up a little short.
We will move onto Friday night and try to bounce back. The Friday night games have been very good to me overall. So I am hoping that trend continues and we can get back on track tonight. There are two College Football games on tonight and I am gonna break down both of them!
Kansas state vs Oklahoma state
Current line as of posting: -11.5/+11.5
I think people kinda forget how good Kansas state really is because of Texas and Oklahoma stealing the show. In wins this season, Kansas state has average roughly 40 points per game and won by multiple TDs in all three wins. Their lone loss? It was a ridiculous long FG by Missouri with a couple seconds left. It should be also noted that Missouri has a great defense and Kansas state still managed 27 points in that contest. Oklahoma state doesn't have a defense like that. When you are looking at Oklahoma state's schedule, their best two opponents has been Iowa State and South Alabama. They loss both of those games. Another reason to like Kansas state? They have a great run defense so Oklahoma would have to get in a shootout with Kansas state to stay pace. For a team being in the bottom 3 in scoring offense and total yards per game, I don't think that is wise. The Oklahoma state defense also ranked bottom half of the league so far in most categories as well.
End of the day, I don't think this Oklahoma state is very good on both side of the ball. I think Kansas state has the upper hand on both side of the ball and I fully expect them to go up double digits by halftime. It is hard seeing this game being a one or even two score game when it is all said and done! Take Kansas state and lay the points with them!
Recommendation - Kansas state -11.5 and up to -14
Nebraska vs Illinois
Current line as of posting: +3.5
Folks, this is gonna be an ugly one. I am personally not betting on this game because when two bad teams play like this then bad things will happen. I do believe the right play on this game is getting the points with Nebraska. I believe that for a couple reasons, frankly. I think Nebraska has the advantage up front in the trenches on both side of the ball. Neither team can pass, but I believe Nebraska has a bigger strength in running the football vs a bad run defense. I think that matchup will be key because if Nebraska are capable of running the football, I think the getting a FG and the hook is excellent value. What if they can't? Well, I think Nebraska has a lot bigger issues than I originally thought and I wasn't high on them to begin with.
I want to like Illinois here, but they have been maybe the biggest disappointment in the Big 10 this season. Considering this is a team that won 10 games a year ago. This is also team that expected to be a good defensive team once again and been god awful instead. I think that what made them so good in 2022, it was their defensive unit. It has taken a step back and this team cant move the ball on offense. They will look to run on early downs and pray they don't get into 3rd and long. They don't pass the ball well, but I think they are more capable than Nebraska. However, I think Nebraska is more capable of forcing them behind the chains than Illinois is
This could be ugly game and I rather have the points with Nebraska in this spot!
Recommendation - Nebraska +3.5
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