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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: The Ganassi cars were alright at New Hampshire overall, but neither really made much noise beyond running 8th to 10th place. Truth be told, I wasn't super high on JMac (or Larson) after watching practice this past weekend. As expected, they performed pretty much how I expected them to. JMac was latter top 10 good for much of the event, but faded on the final couple restarts. Prior to finishing 19th at New Hampshire, JMac has posted 8 straight top 15 finishes, including 7 Top 11 finishes. That streak of finishes dates all the way back to Pocono, where he finished 20th. So he has been very consistent, which is a great asset to have as a possible fantasy pick. In fact, I am believer in consistency. I believe consistency is the baseline for any good fantasy pick, JMac does that very well. For this week at Dover, he should be just as good. His record at Dover has been solid of late. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 81.4 driver rating. Earlier this season, he wasn't that good. He struggled for the most part and then was involved in that massive pile up. He ended in the 21st position that day. Don't worry, because he has had some pretty good runs recently at this place. Over the past 6 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 4 Top 13 finishes. It would be 5 Top 13 finishes in the past 7 races, if he didn't have issues in June 2013. He was running about top 5 to top 7 that day, before he lost a bunch of laps due to an mechanical problem. I think JMac will have a great shot a top 10 to top 13 finish this weekend. He needs a good run and that exactly what he will get. Long as he finishes in his usual range, then he will have a shot at advancing to the next round of the chase. However, at this point he may be a longshot to advance. Especially with how this point system is setup. He's only 5 points behind Larson and 15 behind Kurt Busch, but JMac don't have enough upside to finish that many spots ahead of either driver. Unless, we see some chase drivers chase and burn.
2-Brad Keselowski: I am a race analyst, so I usually keep tabs on the race's leaderboard during the race. So I can get a feel how certain drivers are performing at certain stages of races. And as you would expect, I will take mental notes for my previews. One of the things I notice from this season as a whole is how the Penske cars has underperformed this year. They (Logano and Keselowski) usually find themselves in the top 10 at least, but it is pretty obvious they are still searching for some answers. Not to say, him and Logano, haven't had some really great races this season. Because both of them really has had some amazing races. Number of times here in 2016, we seen both of those drivers battling up inside the top 5 for the race win. However, when you sit back and just think for awhile. The feeling isn't there that we had the past two seasons about this organization, at this time of the season. They usually bring quality cars to the track, but at times you get the sense, they are missing something. I think last weekend at New Hampshire was one of those times. Keselowski or Logano weren't top 10 contenders for the race. He (Keselowski) finished 4th on Sunday, but he hung outside of the top 10 nearly a good chunk of the race. Keselowski should be a good option this weekend overall, if you are looking for a safe top 10 pick. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 98.1 driver rating. Keselowski has been very good at Dover, since the 2012 season. In that span (8 races ago), he has posted 5 Top 6 finishes. Go back further? Since the 2011 season (11 races ago), he has posted 8 Top 13 finishes. Including 7 Top 12 finishes in that span. More recently, he has been just as good. With 4 Top 12 finishes over past 5 races at this place. Including all 5 of those races ending inside the top 16. In fact, so far in his career, he has only finished worse than 16th in one race. Pretty good, don't you think?
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is still having a very consistent season, which still is giving him value. However, his fantasy value was much higher earlier int the season. Because he has much more upside. As the season has progressed, it seemed like the RCR cars has lost their speed. Through two races in the chase, Austin Dillon and co are still looking for a lot of speed. At New Hampshire, Dillon was a non-factor for a top 20 finish. Least not until late in the race, where he really came out of nowhere and scored an respectable 16th place finish. At this point, he will need to win in order to advance. Unless the drivers in front of him all slip up. Which is very possible, but he will need some help based on what we have seen so far this chase. He has been pretty average overall at Dover. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 28.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 68.2 driver rating. He isn't quite that bad here, as the numbers would suggest. Over the past few races here, he has actually ran pretty good. Not great, but ran inside the top 20 at times. As his ARP (Average Running Position) suggests. Most of the ugliness for his average finish can be related back to this past May's race. Where he finished 33rd in that race. Not even close to how well he ran in that race. He was top 20 good, before smashing into the wall and requiring him to go behind the wall. He should be a good top 20 driver this weekend, but he lacks upside to do anything else though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick has more momentum than any other driver in the series right now and could easily go back-to-back wins. He didn't have the best car at New Hampshire, but when it counted he made his made. I kinda had the feeling he was gonna win all week, but it wasn't until late that it became a true reality though. He been great at Dover recently. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 128.0 driver rating. Harvick has dominated the past fall races here, during the chase. Last October, he started midpack but he quickly charged through the field and took the lead. That fact that he started from 15th and led 355 laps is impressive. And this is only an 1-mile racetrack. Even more impressive, if you ask me. In September 2014, he led a race-high 223 laps but finished 13th place. In May 2015, he finished 2nd place. In 2016 (earlier this season), he had the car to beat once again. He started from the pole and led 117 laps. I think when Larson and a few others selected not to pit, after a caution. I thought that was key in Harvick losing his dominance for the day. He clearly had the best car in clean air, but he wasn't that good in the pack it seemed. Then of course, he got wadded up in that massive crash started by Johnson and Truex. Harvick has everything going for him as a fantasy pick. He's consistent, has unlimited upside, very fast racecar on a weekly basis and has a great track record here lately. He's my early pick to win!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is on a 4-race top 10 hot streak and has been very consistent of late. Something I don't think I have said over the past 3 seasons about him. He is running well and as fantasy players, we need to take advantage of that. He is also very good at Dover. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 92.1 driver rating. The HMS cars are running better than they had in months and Kahne is definitely benefiting from it. And his record at Dover has been pretty good, especially over his past three races here. Earlier this season, he was able to finish an solid 4th place. He wasn't quite that good, but he was able to dodge all of the wrecking as well. I would say, he was top 15 good up until the halfway point overall. Prior to that, he had finishes of 6th and 4th. So not like his finish earlier this season was super out of reach. Because he has proven, he can finish and run well at Dover. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 15 driver with top 10 upside. Kahne is running well enough, where we can expect him to have top 10 potential. Not upside, but potential.
11-Denny Hamlin:Hamlin top 10 streak finally came to an end at New Hampshire, but he should be able to get back on track and advance to round 2 after Dover. He doesn't have the greatest record at Dover, but he has been pretty good of late. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 14.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 94.6 driver rating. Hamlin has been a great qualifier at this place, since 2012. Over the past 8 races here, he has posted 5 Top 3 starts. Including 3 poles rewards. He has been able to translate them into 4 solid Top 12 finishes over that 8-race span. Earlier this season, he was able finish in the 7th position. But honestly, he wasn't ever much of a contender for the win. It also was before, Hamlin's team started to click as well. So I wouldn't judge his performance compared to now, based on that race. I think headed into the weekend, he is a solid top 10 bet. I honestly don't know, if he will have top 10 potential. He always enough upside to be top 5 matieral, but at Dover he been so inconsistent. Another reason I am unsure of his potential? His last top 5 finish at Dover was back in 2014 and that is his only top 5 finish over his past 12 attempts. He only has 2 Top 5 finishes over his past 18 races. Only 3 in his career at Dover. Like I said, I like him for a good top 10 finish this weekend.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off an strong top 5 run at New Hampshire and will look to keep things rolling at Dover. This is a great track for him and I was quite surprised he wasn't better earlier this season here. He wasn't really ever a factor and getting caught up in that mess pretty much ended any chance at a good finish for him. I expect him to be much stronger this time around though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 19.5 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 100.7 driver rating. Automatically, his ''performance'' numbers should jump off the page. Soon as see the 7.3 ARP and 100.7 DR, paired with an 19.5 average finish, I immediately know he has multiple misleading finishes. I dig deeper into the data pool and sure enough, he have been caught up in accidents in 2 of the past 3 Dover races. That's the bad news, but I have some great news for the Rowdy's believers though. As he has posted 6 straight Top 10 finishes in the chase race at Dover. That's a streak that goes all the way back to the 2010 season. Including 2 of the past 3 races ending inside the top 5. The spring races have not gone so well for him though. As he has finished 30th or worse in 3 straight races in the first event at Dover, each of the past three years. I think Rowdy could make a nice under the radar play this weekend honestly. Most people probably will avoid him, because of his average finish. But in reality, he has been solid fantasy option lately in the fall's race. Including an 2nd place here last October.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards finished 6th at New Hampshire, but probably could have finished a few spots higher, if he didn't get an pit road penalty at the end. It was an impressive recovery by him, too. There were about 30 laps left, when he had to restart around 20th place. A few caution really helped him gain a lot of ground back up though. Either way, it was a solid day for Carl and it put him in a great spot headed into Dover. A track in which he has found plenty of success at. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 18.3 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. In three starts with JGR, Edwards have struggled to finish out races at Dover. Earlier this season (in May), he was very strong overall. He was running 3rd until he got loose in front of Kyle Larson. As you would expect, the results weren't too good for Edwards. He ended up smashing into the wall. I don't think Larson ever hit him, it just took the air from under him. Just one of those racing incidents that happens. Otherwise, Edwards would had been in a position to have a top 5 run that day. Then last October, he had another strong run going but had some bad luck in the late stages and had a misleading teen-finish. For Edwards, it is not about running well at Dover. He has proven, he can run well at this place. From 2006 to 2012, he posted 11 Top 10 finishes. So it about him getting around this track. It more about him having good luck on his side. Matter of fact, in a interview at New Hampshire he said he felt like he could win at Dover. I don't doubt him about that, folks. Headed into the weekend, I would view him a just outside of the top 5.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was so close at New Hampshire, but Kevin Harvick late charge ruined Kenseth's possible win. I was honestly shocked that Harvick got around him, as Kenseth was able to get off to such great restarts the previous couple restarts. Soon as Harvick took the lead, it was pretty much over. With how hard it is to pass at New Hampshire. So he will now turn his attention to a track he won earlier this season. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 109.8 driver rating. Over his past 6 starts here in the #20 car, he has posted an impressive 5 Top 7 finishes. In 7 starts with JGR, he has only finished worse than 7th twice! Those two races were because an engine back in 2013 (debut race at Dover) and last May (2015), because of an suspension issue. He was top 5 good, before that issue occurred. Kenseth been a machine here throughout his career though. Over the past 21 races here, he has posted impressive 13 Top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes. It doesn't matter how you slice it, Kenseth has been extremely strong. The 20 car has contended up front quite often over the past couple months and I fully expect him to be a top 5 contender this weekend. If he starts up front, then the field could be in trouble.
21-Ryan Blaney: Ryan Blaney for a second straight weekend has recovered for a solid finish at New Hampshire. Now, he will have to refocus and look forward to Dover. Earlier this season, he had a solid race, I guess. He wasn't as strong as fellow rookie Chase Elliott, but still pretty good for a rookie. He finished 8th place back in May, which like I said was pretty good. He wasn't ever quite that good, he was more of a teen-driver until after all of the wrecking occurred. This is one of the tracks that I expect Blaney to be run well at and I expect him performance to pick up from the last time he was here. As he has more experience in a cup car now. Realistically, I would say an top 15 finish is in order for him this weekend. I wouldn't rule out an top 10, like always he will have enough upside to flirt with an top 10 finish. But I think that will be more likely on the cookie cutters though.
22-Joey Logano: A year ago, Joey Logano was a heavy contender for the championship and was running inside the top 5 on a weekly basis. This season, I have not seen that same top 5 potential, he showed so often last season. I picked him to win the championship back in January, but him and Penske just doesn't have the same amount of speed it seems as the Gibbs cars (and now HMS and their allies). He should be pretty good at Dover though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 11.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 95.8 driver rating. He been very good lately at this place. Over the past 9 races here, he has posted 8 Top 11 finishes. The only race, he didn't finish inside the top 11? Earlier this season, where he was involved in the big one at Dover. I think Logano will be very good this weekend and capable of an top 10 finish. However, I am not sold he is back to top 5 status though. In fact until he proves otherwise, he probably nothing beyond an top 10 driver going forward.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is having an amazing rookie season and is coming back-to-back impressive chase races. He almost won at Chicgoland and had a shot at an top 5 finish at New Hampshire. Least until the end, before he faded in the late stages. He also ran very well earlier this season at Dover. He had a great battle going on with Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson. Truth be told, he probably cost himself (or Kyle Larson) a win, by battling there for those several laps at the end. I don't think Elliott was as good as his 3rd place finish says though. He was about 7th to 10th place driver overall for the event. He really got an boost at the end, when all of those cars got caught up in a wreck. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver. I think a lot of that have to do with the momentum, he has. As I am not convinced he is legit at Dover, least not as legit as he seemed back in May. Knowing Chase, he will go out and prove me wrong. Which is something, I wouldn't hate though.
41-Kurt Busch: I say it almost every single week in my fantasy preview, Kurt Busch will be at best an top 10 fantasy pick. And every week, he pretty much go out and run from about 8th to 14th place. It tough watch him run in that area, when ran inside the top 5 so often last season. Maybe he had more motivation last season, or maybe the 41 team just have taken a step back from last season. Either way, it doesn't make sense. As Harvick really haven't regressed any. If he has, it isn't too noticeable. Anyhow, he will enter Dover with potential to finish inside top 10. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 17.8 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 93.2 driver rating. He was able to finished 5th place earlier this season, but as mentioned before in this preview. It was assited by that massive Johnson and Truex's wreck. If that didn't happen, I would say he would have finished somewhere in latter part of the top 10. Kurt Busch is like the ultimate boom or bust play this weekend at Dover. Over past 20 races here, he has finished inside the top 10 in only 5 races. All 5 races, he finished inside the top 5 as well. 12 of the remaining 15 races has ended in 17th or worse. Not exactly comfortable numbers as a possible fantasy pick. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver with top 10 upside. But to be honest, I am not really too high on him in most formats. His lackluster results this season as a big name, really makes him unappealing option in my opinion.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is coming off an 10th place finish at New Hampshire, overall it wasn't a bad weekend for him. But he was greatly overrated based on his practice ''speeds''. If you actually track his lap times and compared him to the competition on Saturday. Then you would have easily seen, he wasn't gonna be anything beyond a top 10 contender. As he would struggle on the long runs, the race played out exactly as practice suggested. However, his top 10 finish has given him some breathing room entering Dover. He doesn't need to win, he just need to finish inside the top 10. If he does that, it should be good enough to finish ahead of other chasers he needs to beat. He been great at Dover so far in his career. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 107.8 driver rating. He has made 5 career starts altogether, but he has never finished worse than 11th place though. That 11th was back in his debut in June 2014. Since? He has posted 4 straight Top 10 finishes. Including 2nd and 3rd places over his past 3 starts at this place. Back in May (earlier this season), he was very strong. He struggled earlier on and lost a lap. Then when the grip came in, his car came to life. I thought the key for him was getting track position. Once he got the track position that where his car really took off. Another thing to like about him? He is qualifying better of late. Early in the season that was his biggest flaw. As Larson been qualifying better, his performance has picked up and so have the finishes. Headed into the weekend, Larson is probably an top 10 driver, with major upside to finish inside the top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson and the HMS camp are coming to life at the right time! They has had speed over recent weeks, and last weekend at New Hampshire proved it was no fluke. Now, Johnson goes to one of his best tracks on the schedule (in Dover). Johnson has struggled here recently, but I am here to tell you things will be different this time around. If you think for a minute that the 48 team isn't licking their chops right now, then you are kidding yourself! This is a great racetrack for the former 6-time Cup champ and they will give him the best car possible out of the HMS garage. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 17.5 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. Like I said he has struggled lately here, as you can see by looking at the numbers. Personally, I think he will be looking for revenage for his epic fail here and getting eliminated from the chase. Prior to having finishes of 41st and 25th, he had posted 4 straight Top 3 finishes. Including 3 wins in those 4 races. Over the past 15 races here, Johnson has posted 7 wins and total of 10 Top 5 finishes. Most drivers entered in this weekend's race, don't even have a win. Let alone 7 wins. I don't know what else to say other than, don't bet against Jimmie Johnson. The most likely outcome is you will get burned, if you dare go against him here. Trust me, these past two races were flukes. Jimmie won't have three straight bad races at Dover. He's hungry and he's primed to eat at the Monster mile.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr won at Chicagoland and early on at New Hampshire, he was looking to go back-to-back win at New Hampshire. He ended up leading the most laps on Sunday, but he would eventually end up finishing 6th with a very bad late restart. Earlier this season, he was very strong overall. I thought he had the car to beat after Harvick lost the lead. It was him or Larson, in my opinion. I would say Truex had a bit stronger car on the long runs. He should be primed for another solid run on Sunday though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 8.3 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. Overall this has been a great racetrack for Truex since the 2012 season. Over the past 9 races here, he has compiled 7 Top 11 finishes. Including 5 straight top 11 finishes. 4 of those 5 races has ended inside the top 9 overall. What else to say about him? He will likely have top 5 speed this weekend and likely lead some laps at some point. I think the question is weather or not, he finishes out the race. I think we are past the bad luck stage of his season (for now), but the bigger issue now is him finishing out races. Like last week at New Hampshire, where he had an poor restart. He needs to clean up that type of thing. Otherwise, he should be a great fantasy pick this weekend.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
