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1-JMac: JMac has been good at Las Vegas in recent seasons. He has posted 5 straight finishes of 16th or better at this track. In the past two seasons at Vegas, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 72.8 driver rating. In last season's race, he finished 8th and was probably good enough to flirt with the top 10 at times. He compiled 13.0 average running position and had 86.7 driver rating. Those are good numbers, in case you were wondering. He finished a little better than he ran, but still isn't too bad for a driver who was a top 12 machine on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2017. Problem is? He wasn't too good at Atlanta overall. He spent most of that race a lap down and he just couldn't do much on the longer runs. That where the No.1 car really fell off as I feared he would.
2-Brad Keselowski: I wasn't very high on Keselowski after watching practice on Saturday at Altanta, but he certainly proved me wrong. He was up there challenging for the win for most of the race. And Keselowski is a stud here at Las Vegas and he is not someone that you can take lightly. Since the 2013 season, he has been unstoppable at Las Vegas. He has finished 7th or better in every start of each of the last four seasons. In the last 3 seasons, he has posted 2 wins. Even scarier? He has won in 2014 and 2016. If that trends hold true, he will be back to victory lane here in 2018 at Las Vegas. Question is will it hold true? I can no reason not why not. In last season's event, he was very strong. He was tied for the best-average running position of 2.0 in that event. He was the 2nd-best driver overall. As he led the 2nd-most laps (89), the most fast laps (65) and second-best driver rating (127.5) in that race. Nobody was quite as good as Truex Jr, but Keselowski was very damn close.
3-Austin Dillon: I thought Dillon was pretty good overall at Atlanta. He had to start in the back, but he drove up into the top 15 and stood there for most of the event. I love that Dillon looked so good at Atlanta. There some optimism about him. As Dillon performed very strong two seasons ago at Las Vegas, when he finished an impressive 5th place with a stout perform. That event in my opinion was his best race ever on an intermediate racetrack. In that race, he held 13.0 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. Does anything look weird about those two stats? They don't line up correctly. He was much better than his 13.0 average running position. That stat get deflated because he had a speeding penalty and spent time a lap down. Now his driver rating of 104.4 is the perfect stat to look at in this situation. It tells how well he ran on the racetrack, even while being posted a lap down. His 104.4 driver tells me he was very strong. And did get his lap back and eventually rebounded for a top 5 finish. Of course, the caution had to fall perfect there at the end for Dillon to take the wave around and stay on the lead lap. It did and Dillon was gold after that.
4-Kevin Harvick: Over the past three seasons at Las Vegas, Harvick has good been bad, good and great. In 2015, he dominated and led 142 laps on his way to victory. In 2016, he wasn't bad by any means. He finished 7th, but he was never truly a race-winning contender for that race. And then last year, he smacked the wall very hard and went to the garage. Prior to that, I didn't think he was great or anything like that. He was getting better running top 10 and moving closer to the front, but I don't think he ever would had challenge for the win. I felt like he was capable of top 10 for that event, but that is pretty much it. Of course, his stats over the past couple seasons are now misleading because of last season's race here. At Atlanta, Harvick simply dominanted. As he did in 2017 and pretty much every other year at that racetrack.
9-Chase Elliott: Elliott really struggled at Atlanta and HMS in geneal looked off. Elliott qualified mid-pack and was never even a top 10 driver for that race. At Las Vegas, Elliott was strong in 2017. He finished 3rd and was a top 5 driver for that event. In that race, he held 5.0 average running position and 116.7 driver rating. Both ranked inside of the top 5 for the event. That was miles better than the outcome of his rookie season's result. He was running well inside of the top 10 before a big wreck took him and several others out of it. He was very competitive prior to that though. To say that Elliott had ran well at Las Vegas is kinda an understatement, in my opinion.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin haven't performed impressively well at Las Vegas in recent seasons, but he does have a pair of top 10 finishes in the last three seasons. In his last three Las Vegas races, he has posted finishes of 6th, 19th and 5th. In last season's race, he wasn't that good but he did get a top 10 finish. In the event, he only posted 13.0 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. I remember him struggling all weekend and not be able to be anything other than a top 15 driver for much of the race. In 2016, he was probably even worse. He finished 19th and he wasn't that good for the event overall. He struggled a tight racecar for that event and couldn't ever get that car right. He restarted 14th on the final restart, but he fell down the running order late in the race.
12-Ryan Blaney: I though Blaney was gonna be in the latter part of the top 10 or low teens area at Atlanta heading into the race. That pretty much what happened, too. He wasn't special, but he was good enough though. Blaney has been amazing at Las Vegas so far in his young career. I would say that this is one of his best tracks. In the past two seasons at Vegas, he has compiled 6.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. That's very impressive, especially for a driver who has been pretty inconsistent over the past couple seasons. Vegas is one of the few tracks that it seems like he has on lockdown. I would say that Vegas is a strong case as his best intermediate track on the schedule over the last two seasons. I think the strength at Penske at Vegas only further strength Blaney's case, too.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: I thought Ricky Stenhouse Jr was gonna be better than he was at Atlanta, but he wasn't too bad overall. He ran top 15 for most of the race from what I saw. Stenhouse haven't found much success in recent seasons at Las Vegas. His best race ever here came in 2016. He finished 12th in that event, but that is his lone top 15 finish in 5 career starts now. In his last four starts, he has posted 4 finishes of 27th or worse. That 12th place finish in 2016 remains his sole good effort since the 2014 season. Of course, RFR were considerably off in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, he posted 81,8 driver rating with 17.0 average running position. It should be noted that he spent 66% of the race inside the top 15. Why tells you that his 17.0 average running position is misleading. In that race, he got nabbed with a speeding penalty which obviously effected his ARP. In last season's race, he finished 33rd but he was a lot better than that. He finished 33rd, but he spent majority of the race inside the top 20. With under 15 laps to go, he had a mechanical issue that ended any chance for him to get a good finish out of the deal.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is excellent at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and sometimes he does not get enough credit at this racetrack. He has performed very well in the last four seasons at Las Vegas. Between 2013 and 2017 (he missed 2015 race), he finished 11th or better in each race. He also led a lap in each of those races. Even better? He has finished in the top 5 in every other race at Las Vegas since the 2013 season. In 2013, he finished 4th. Then he finished 11th in 2014, missed 2015 race and finished 4th again in 2016. The trends say he is due for another top 5 finish. In last season's race at Las Vegas, he was running in the top 5 on the final lap but he got wrecked.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez ran like I expected him to at Atlanta. Good enough for the top 10/top 12, but not really anything better than that. Suarez did not perform well in last season's race at Las Vegas, but he now has a year under his belt. As you can tell, he has only gotten better with experience in the cup series. He looked good at Atlanta last weekend and he seems to be poised to have a career year. After his slow start to the season in 2017, I would find it hard for him to not post better numbers here in 2018. I think the 1.5 mile racetracks will be one of the spots where Suarez will be at his strongest. The Gibbs cars are typically at their best on this type of racetrack.
20-Erik Jones: I think Erik Jones is gonna win a race or two this season. And I think last week at Atlanta and this weekend at Las Vegas will set the tone for him in the first half of the season. I don't love Erik Jones in terms of winning this weekend at Las Vegas, but I certainly don't hate him. I think Joe Gibbs Racing will all have top 10 potential at Las Vegas. Jones doesn't have much experience here at Vegas, but he did look pretty good in his debut at this track here in 2017. In last season's race, he compiled 10.0 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. He was a legit top 10 option in last season's event and certainly could do better in his second start at the track.
22-Joey Logano: Logano started off the 2017 season very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks and he is looking to do the same thing here in 2018. I think Logano will be someone under the radar, but he is certainly someone you better not overlook for too long. I think he is a top 10 driver entering the weekend with that obvious upside to do more damage than that. Vegas is one of his better tracks since joining Penske, too. In 4 starts since joining the 22 team, he has posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. In 3 of those 4 races, he has posted finishes in the top 5. In all 4 of those races, he has led at least one lap in each race. Between 2014 and 2016 (3 races), he led more than 40 laps in all three races. He finished 2nd here in 2016 and was impressive for that event. In last season's race, he was very good again and finished 4th for that race.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman looked solid on Friday and Saturday at Atlanta, but it all went to hell on Sunday. After looking strong early, he then hit the wall before end of stage 1. Later on in the event, he had to make another non-scheduled pit stop. He finished outside of the top 20 on a day that could had been really good. Newman is always a good bet to be a consistent finisher at Vegas. Since the 2010 season, he has only finished worse than 18th place in one race. That is 8 races for those that are counting at home. In 4 of his last 7 races at Vegas, he has posted finishes in the top 10. However, his last top 10 finish was back in 2015 now. Over the past two season, he has finishes of 13th and 17th. In those two races, he has compiled 15.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. In last season's race, he finished 17th but he was better than that. He spent 65% of the race in the top 15 and held 13.0 average running position. For most of the event, he right around that area.
41-Kurt Busch: I was very impressed by Kurt Busch at Atlanta. All of the SHR cars were very fast. Kinda like last year (to obviously a much less extent), too. Still, it was pretty impressive what all of those SHR Fords did. They were on it since unloading. However, I would have to say that Vegas has been one of Kurt Busch's worst tracks in recent seasons. And, he haven't been much better in his career here, either. In 16 career starts, he has only posted 4 top 10 finishes. And only once he finished better than 9th and that was 3rd in 2005. Over his last 5 races at this track, he has finished 4 of 5 races in 20th or worse. In last season's race, he finished 30th with being 4 laps down. In 2016, he finished 9th after starting on the pole. He led 31 laps after starting on the pole. After that first stage, Busch kinda faded and was a non-factor up at the front. In his three prior starts, he had no finishes better than 20th place at Las Vegas. His hometown racetrack haven't been too kind to him over the years.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson broke out in 2017 with 2nd place finish at Las Vegas. That was by far his best finish and overall performance at the 1.5 mile racetrack. He finished 8th in 2015, but he wasn't nearly as strong though. After last season's race at Phoenix (now known as ISM), he made the comment that CGR has made major gains last year with him performing well at some bad tracks for him. He mentioned Las Vegas as one of them. In last season's race at Las Vegas, he compiled 5.0 average running position and 113.2 driver rating. Both of those ranked in the top 5 for the event.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson haven't been great at Las Veags like he once was and his performance at Atlanta just strengthen the case to avoid him. As I said in the offseason, I am not very high on Jimmie Johnson here in 2018. I think he gonna have another down year and I still stand by that. With that said, I still do expect Johnson to be in the top 10 this weekend at Las Vegas like most weekends. Vegas is one of Johnson's best tracks. In the last 6 seasons, he has led a lap in 6 straight races at Las Vegas. In last season's event, he held 11.0 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. Last season on the intermediate tracks that was kinda the range for him. Somewhere between 7th-12th. That was the range we saw him in more often than not during the races.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr was dominant in last season's race here at Las Vegas. I don't think anyone really had anything for him honestly. He was that good. Maybe the 2 car of Brad Keselowski could stay with him, but I didn't think he was quite good enough to beat him though. He had the best average running position (tied - 2.0), best driver rating (147.6) and most laps led (150). Not the first time that Truex Jr has been at the front at Vegas. In 2015, he was very good again. He finished 2nd in that race. He only led 3 laps, but he still held 117.1 driver rating. That right there should tell you something about how good he was. Any time a driver is flirting with a driver rating of 120.0, it is safe to say that he was an elite performer.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
