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Preview -
1-Jamie Mac: Both of the CGR cars have struggled through two races this season with the new package in 2016. I don't trust either one of them right now. JMac is the safer fantasy option, but his best finish through 3 races is 16th (at Vegas). So he not exactly fantasy worthy. However I do think he will get his best finish of the season at Phoenix though. He have been very good on the short-flat racetracks lately with CGR and that should continue, regardless if both cars are behind right now. He currently rides an 5-race Top 18 finishes streak at Phoenix that consists of 2nd and 10th over the previous two spring races. He was stout in last season's event. He finished 2nd and posted 112.1 driver rating. I think JMac will be a top 15 driver at Phoenix, but I don't believe we will see him extend his Top 10 streak for the spring races though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was not exactly on point at Atlanta and finished 9th. However he bounded back strong (as I said he would last week in my preview) and went to victory lane at Vegas for the second time in 3 seasons. Keselowski now heads to another great racetrack for him and Team Penske. Last season he had a pair of Top 10 finishes (9th and 6th). Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have compiled 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. He always been very good at Phoenix though. Over the past 8 starts at Phoenix (dating back to 2012), he have knocked off 8 straight Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in those 8 races since the 2012 season. Arguably this been his best racetrack since joining Penske and I definitely see another top 5 finish run out of the 2 team this week.
3-Austin Dillon: I was super impressed by Austin Dillon at Las Vegas. He was fast in everything and finished 5th (he also started 5th). Not only did he finish 5th at Vegas, but he also finished 11th at Atlanta. Dillon clearly have taken the next step in becoming this sport's next big star over the past 20 or so Cup races. I do think he will find victory lane this season. However it probably won't be this week. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 66.5 driver rating. Those numbers are misleading though. He finished 15th and 20th last season at this racetrack. He was competitive in both races and should be in the running once again for another top 15 finish this weekend at Phoenix. Even though I wouldn't rule out him shocking us with a top 10 finish (unlikely though in my opinion). Dillon should be a decent sleeper to consider for Phoenix.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is pretty much the obvious choice this week for everyone fantasy teams. I don't think there a fantasy player out there, who doesn't know about Harvick recent run of success at Phoenix. Plain and simple, he been nearly unstoppable at this short-flat racetrack. Over the past 4 Phoenix races, he have compiled 1.3 average finish with 1.8 average running position and 148.7 driver rating. Those are some stupid great numbers. Anyone who comes close a stat-line like that is pretty impressive. He have finished either 1st or 2nd in 7 of the past 8 Phoenix races. The one race didn't finish 1st or 2nd was back in 2013 (with RCR) and had a strong car that day running up front. Ended up finishing 13th that day though. Regardless, he been pretty much a lock to finish inside the top 5 every time we come here. I cannot think of a logical reason why he won't be the heavy favorite once again. Not to mention, he have looked pretty solid thus far with this season's package. Everything points to the 4 team primed for a great weekend. He's my early pick to win for the record.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey giving me some mix feelings thus far with this package. He was terrible at Altanta (finished like 23rd) and then finished 10th at Vegas. Hard to say what to expect from him this weekend at Phoenix. Peronsally I am still playing the wait and see game with Kahne to see if he builds his first top 10 of 2016. However he could be a decent fantasy pick for those that are willing to gamble on him. Over the past 3 spring races at Phoenix, he have complied finishes of 19th, 11th and 4th. The big problem for Kahne at Phoenix since joining HMS? You got it! Inconsistnecy! He have managed 4 Top 11 finishes and 4 finishes of 19th or worse. It should be noted that all of his top 10 finishes since joining HMS have resulted inside the top 5. So you are basically looking at top 4 or bust with Kahne. Yeah I might pass, unless I am a risk taker.
11-Denny Hamlin: I wasn't very shocked by how poorly Hamlin performed at Vegas, even though I wasn't expecting him to be quite that bad. He wasn't very good at Atlanta either. So it hard saying what is going on with the 11 team since winning the Daytona 500. Over the past 4 Phoenix races, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.2 driver rating. This use to be one of Hamlin's best racetracks on the schedule. He had 3 straight Top 3 finishes prior to the repave. Since (4 races), he have only managed two top 10 finishes. That's good, right? Wrong! He have finished 19th and 23rd over the past two spring races at Phoenix. He wasn't very competitive in either race. I don't know why, but Hamlin the past few seasons in general been a stronger second-half driver. Which could explain why he have struggled to start the season on the intermediate racetracks.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Another driver that I been very impressed with thus far this season is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 10th at Atlanta and 12th at Vegas. He have been very good at Phoenix (minus last season fall race). In the past 3 races at Phoenix (prior to the 2015 fall race), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 69.1 driver rating. Those numbers aren't monster-like, but they are still pretty impressive considering how much RFR have been down in recent seasons. However I think RFR have made some major gains in the off-season and Ricky have taken full-advantage of it so far. I am really excited to see what he can do at Phoenix. I am still playing the wait and see game, but man we have seen a new Stenhouse compared what we saw at this point last season. I think he is in for another top 15 (or at worst top 20) run.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch have started the season off hot with 3 straight Top 4 finishes in the first 3 races. Can he keep it going at Phoenix? I think he keeps it up with another top 5 run at a racetrack that he have found plenty of success at over the years. Over the past 3 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. His RP and Driver rating should stand out because it indicates he been a strong performer at Phoenix. Since the 2012 season (7 races) , he have managed 5 Top 9 finishes. Including an 4th-place run last season in sole effort at Phoenix. I think Busch will win soon and it could very well happen this weekend, if something should happen to Kevin Harvick. In fact, in my own personal rankings I would list him up there inside the top 3. Busch should be one of the safer fantasy options to choose this weekend in my opinion.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards should be in for bounce back race after getting involved in a wreck late at Vegas. Even though he was still able to finish out the race on lead lap. Still Edwards have to be a bit bitter after having such a fast racecar. I think he bounces back nicely at Phoenix (another great racetrack for him). Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. He had finishes of 12th and 13th in last season's races. However he was much better than that in the fall race, but got screwed how the cautions fell late in the race. Overall 7 of his past 9 races (dating back to 2011) have ended inside the top 15. I think JGR will bring some fast cars to the track this weekend like they have been all season. So no worries about Edwards, he will be least a top 10 contender. Add-in he holds an 12.2 average finish for his career at Phoenix, I view him as one of the favorites headed into practice.
20-Matt Kenseth: Alright it official, the 2016 Nascar season hates Matt Kenseth. Sure seems like that, doesn't it? Leading at Datyona and get wrecked. Leading at Atlanta and get a costly penalty. Fast car at Vegas and spins. He have to eventually catch a break, right? I think so and I think it may this weekend at Phoenix. He have been pretty good at Phoenix recently. He wasn't very good here in last season's race and finished 16th. He missed the fall race because of suspension. Over the past 7 races here, he have compiled 5 Top 14 finishes. He not been a great driver at Phoenix throughout his career though. In 26 career starts, he have only managed 10 Top 10 finishes. For Kenseth that is a pretty low number in my opinion. Even though he have translated 60% of those Top 10 finishes into Top 5 finishes. I am not really worried about what he have done in the past at Phoenix, I am more focused on what he have done this season. Facts remains that Kenseth have been very fast in the previous two races with this package. I find that hard to overlook. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 guy at least.
21-Ryan Blaney: There isn't any past data to go on with Blaney, since he have never raced at Phoenix in a cup car. However he been pretty solid with this new package so far. I was very impressed by him at Vegas. Obviously you cannot really compare Vegas and Phoenix (since they are two different tracks), however it the same race package. So unless something crazy happen, I would expect Blaney to be a solid contender this week. Will he finish inside the top 10 again? Nope probably not, but he have stabilized himself as a top 15 already this season in my books.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an 2nd-place run at Vegas and will look to keep up the strong run at Phoenix. He been very good at Phoenix since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here , he have compiled 5.3 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 115.5 driver rating. He been pretty much equal with teammate Brad Keselowski across the board. Better even slightly a little better too. Minus his debut with Penske in 2013, he have knocked off 5 straight Top 9 finishes. Including 3 Top 6 finishes over the past 4 races. Don't think he just suddenly became good at Phoenix since joining Penske though. He have a knack for finishing well at Pheonix (even back in his JGR days). In 14 career starts, he have managed 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 9 Top 11 finishes in his previous 12 attempts. Outside of Kevin Harvick, I think Logano may be the best driver at Phoenix recently. He also is a strong qualifier at Phoenix too. 4 of his 6 starts in the #22 car have resulted in a top 4 starting position. Good starting positions have led to plenty of success for Logano. Don't be shocked to see an similar weekend develop for him!
24-Chase Elliott: Like Blaney didn't isn't a lot to talk about (or something I say preview), but I will say that I have set the bar too low for Chase thus far in my previews. He was really strong at Atlanta and once again strong at Vegas. It hard to make a bold prediction like saying he will have another top 10 run this week, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Elliott is an impressive young driver in top tier equipment. Once he get a little time behind the wheel at Phoenix, I think he will a legit top 15 (if not better). For now I have him as an low to mid teen driver. I acutally have higher hopes for Elliott than I would have thought before the season started. Perosnally I didn't think he would be running quite this well this early in the season. Now he just needs to be able to finish out there races.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is off to a great start this season with back-to-back top 18 finishes. Okay so that not great by any means, but still he is finishing respectably and that all that matters. He kinda disappointed at Vegas, but I wasn't overly shocked by how he finished after watching the first few runs. I was hoping for a finish closer to the top 10, but it just wasn't meant to be though. He been decent at Phoenix recently, but I wouldn't go crazy with him though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.5 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 71.7 driver rating. Not great numbers, but he did sweep the top 15 last season with finishes of 13th and 14th. Overall 5 of his past 7 races here have ended inside the top 20. So not like he finishing poorly, but I don't think the shorter-flats are a strong point for Menard and this 27 team though. He will hold more value on the intermediate racetracks. Personally I am not expecting anything beyond a top 20 finish from him this weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch for the second straight week (at Atlanta and Vegas) started on the pole and for the second straight week he faded in the latter stages of the race. That have to suck for the fantsy players who selected him to their fantasy teams. He made his debut in the 2015 season last season. Over the past 3 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He have managed 3 straight top 7 finishes at the racetrack and should be in for another this weekend. He been really good recently and pretty much always been good here. 7 of his past 11 results have ended inside the top 10 at Phoenix. Also it helps that he have Kevin Harvick as a teammate. It kinda like a bonus on top of being pretty good at Phoenix. Heck I would probably select to him some of my rosters right now, just because he have Harvick as a teammate. You would be surprise how much of avantage that could be.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson have started the season off terribly. He finished 26th at Atlatna (he was horrible) and then finished outside the top 30 at Vegas. Even though he was running pretty good up inside the top 12 before getting a pit road penalty that sent his day downhill. Right now I don't trust Kyle Larson or his teammate JMac. But I do believe they'll eventually turn it around. Will it be this weekend? Maybe. He haven't performed too bad recently at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. Not exactly great numbers, but not too bad either. He finished 10th last spring and had a pretty good car all race long. Wasn't anything beyond a 10th place car, but still that was good enough for him. In the fall, he wasn't so lucky. He finished 21st in the fall and looked solid on the first run of the race. But he just faded as the run were put on the board and eventually finished a lap down. That was odd race (race-shortened), so I will give him a pass on that one. Headed into the weekend, I am not really too high on Larson at the moment. I am going to play the wait and see game with him, before I decide what to do with him going forward.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have figured out his race package and making the competition know it. He won at Atlanta and had the car to beat at Vegas. Even though he finished 3rd. Something tells me, he will keep up his strong run at Phoenix as well. He always been a strong driver here, but he have taken a step back since the repave though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. That is a misleading stat-line, he finished 39th in the fall 2014 race. Otherwise he been consistent as they come at Phoenix. Over the past 6 races (dating back to 2013 season), he have managed 4 Top 6 finishes. Johnson have been ridiculous over his career here with 15 Top 5 finishes in just 25 races at this racetrack. Inlcuding 15 of those top 5 finishes ending in wins. A lot of times with a new race package, I try to disregard past history. But with Johnson it almost impossible to. His numbers are just so impressive, you are pretty blown away by it. Add-in how well he have ran so far this season, he is a top 5 guy headed into practice in my books.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have looked very good so far this season and I think he keeps it up at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He been pretty solid over his past 3 races at this racetrack. He have finished 14th or better in every race. Over his past 5 races at Phoenix, he have finished 14th or better in 3 of those 5 races. He been a consistent performer throughout his career at Phoenix. Over the past 14 races (dating back to the 2009 season), he have finished 20th or better in 11 of the past 14 races. Inlcuding 9 Top 14 finishes in that 14 race-span. I think he is an top 10 guy headed into the weekend practices.
88-Dale Jr: I consider Dale Jr to be one of the best kept secrets in fantsy nascar at Phoenix. He have been a strong driver at this racetrack and I think he will keep that up. He wrecked in last season's spring race, but followed it up with an upset win at Phoenix. Okay it wasn't really an upset, but it was because Kevin Harvick was the odd-on favorite to win that race. So a win is a win in my book. Over the past 6 races, he have finished 4 of those 6 races inside the top 5. In fact, he have finished 5 of those 6 races inside the top 8. Phoenix is actually one of Dale Jr's best racetracks since joining HMS in 2008. In his past 16 races, he have finished 11 of those 16 races inside the top 14. I view him easily as an top 10 driver headed into the weekend. I love him as an off-sequence fantasy pick, especially if everyone keeps him off their fantasy radars.
**All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @Jeffnathans18
Preview -
1-Jamie Mac: Both of the CGR cars have struggled through two races this season with the new package in 2016. I don't trust either one of them right now. JMac is the safer fantasy option, but his best finish through 3 races is 16th (at Vegas). So he not exactly fantasy worthy. However I do think he will get his best finish of the season at Phoenix though. He have been very good on the short-flat racetracks lately with CGR and that should continue, regardless if both cars are behind right now. He currently rides an 5-race Top 18 finishes streak at Phoenix that consists of 2nd and 10th over the previous two spring races. He was stout in last season's event. He finished 2nd and posted 112.1 driver rating. I think JMac will be a top 15 driver at Phoenix, but I don't believe we will see him extend his Top 10 streak for the spring races though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was not exactly on point at Atlanta and finished 9th. However he bounded back strong (as I said he would last week in my preview) and went to victory lane at Vegas for the second time in 3 seasons. Keselowski now heads to another great racetrack for him and Team Penske. Last season he had a pair of Top 10 finishes (9th and 6th). Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have compiled 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. He always been very good at Phoenix though. Over the past 8 starts at Phoenix (dating back to 2012), he have knocked off 8 straight Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in those 8 races since the 2012 season. Arguably this been his best racetrack since joining Penske and I definitely see another top 5 finish run out of the 2 team this week.
3-Austin Dillon: I was super impressed by Austin Dillon at Las Vegas. He was fast in everything and finished 5th (he also started 5th). Not only did he finish 5th at Vegas, but he also finished 11th at Atlanta. Dillon clearly have taken the next step in becoming this sport's next big star over the past 20 or so Cup races. I do think he will find victory lane this season. However it probably won't be this week. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 66.5 driver rating. Those numbers are misleading though. He finished 15th and 20th last season at this racetrack. He was competitive in both races and should be in the running once again for another top 15 finish this weekend at Phoenix. Even though I wouldn't rule out him shocking us with a top 10 finish (unlikely though in my opinion). Dillon should be a decent sleeper to consider for Phoenix.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is pretty much the obvious choice this week for everyone fantasy teams. I don't think there a fantasy player out there, who doesn't know about Harvick recent run of success at Phoenix. Plain and simple, he been nearly unstoppable at this short-flat racetrack. Over the past 4 Phoenix races, he have compiled 1.3 average finish with 1.8 average running position and 148.7 driver rating. Those are some stupid great numbers. Anyone who comes close a stat-line like that is pretty impressive. He have finished either 1st or 2nd in 7 of the past 8 Phoenix races. The one race didn't finish 1st or 2nd was back in 2013 (with RCR) and had a strong car that day running up front. Ended up finishing 13th that day though. Regardless, he been pretty much a lock to finish inside the top 5 every time we come here. I cannot think of a logical reason why he won't be the heavy favorite once again. Not to mention, he have looked pretty solid thus far with this season's package. Everything points to the 4 team primed for a great weekend. He's my early pick to win for the record.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey giving me some mix feelings thus far with this package. He was terrible at Altanta (finished like 23rd) and then finished 10th at Vegas. Hard to say what to expect from him this weekend at Phoenix. Peronsally I am still playing the wait and see game with Kahne to see if he builds his first top 10 of 2016. However he could be a decent fantasy pick for those that are willing to gamble on him. Over the past 3 spring races at Phoenix, he have complied finishes of 19th, 11th and 4th. The big problem for Kahne at Phoenix since joining HMS? You got it! Inconsistnecy! He have managed 4 Top 11 finishes and 4 finishes of 19th or worse. It should be noted that all of his top 10 finishes since joining HMS have resulted inside the top 5. So you are basically looking at top 4 or bust with Kahne. Yeah I might pass, unless I am a risk taker.
11-Denny Hamlin: I wasn't very shocked by how poorly Hamlin performed at Vegas, even though I wasn't expecting him to be quite that bad. He wasn't very good at Atlanta either. So it hard saying what is going on with the 11 team since winning the Daytona 500. Over the past 4 Phoenix races, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.2 driver rating. This use to be one of Hamlin's best racetracks on the schedule. He had 3 straight Top 3 finishes prior to the repave. Since (4 races), he have only managed two top 10 finishes. That's good, right? Wrong! He have finished 19th and 23rd over the past two spring races at Phoenix. He wasn't very competitive in either race. I don't know why, but Hamlin the past few seasons in general been a stronger second-half driver. Which could explain why he have struggled to start the season on the intermediate racetracks.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Another driver that I been very impressed with thus far this season is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 10th at Atlanta and 12th at Vegas. He have been very good at Phoenix (minus last season fall race). In the past 3 races at Phoenix (prior to the 2015 fall race), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 69.1 driver rating. Those numbers aren't monster-like, but they are still pretty impressive considering how much RFR have been down in recent seasons. However I think RFR have made some major gains in the off-season and Ricky have taken full-advantage of it so far. I am really excited to see what he can do at Phoenix. I am still playing the wait and see game, but man we have seen a new Stenhouse compared what we saw at this point last season. I think he is in for another top 15 (or at worst top 20) run.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch have started the season off hot with 3 straight Top 4 finishes in the first 3 races. Can he keep it going at Phoenix? I think he keeps it up with another top 5 run at a racetrack that he have found plenty of success at over the years. Over the past 3 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. His RP and Driver rating should stand out because it indicates he been a strong performer at Phoenix. Since the 2012 season (7 races) , he have managed 5 Top 9 finishes. Including an 4th-place run last season in sole effort at Phoenix. I think Busch will win soon and it could very well happen this weekend, if something should happen to Kevin Harvick. In fact, in my own personal rankings I would list him up there inside the top 3. Busch should be one of the safer fantasy options to choose this weekend in my opinion.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards should be in for bounce back race after getting involved in a wreck late at Vegas. Even though he was still able to finish out the race on lead lap. Still Edwards have to be a bit bitter after having such a fast racecar. I think he bounces back nicely at Phoenix (another great racetrack for him). Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. He had finishes of 12th and 13th in last season's races. However he was much better than that in the fall race, but got screwed how the cautions fell late in the race. Overall 7 of his past 9 races (dating back to 2011) have ended inside the top 15. I think JGR will bring some fast cars to the track this weekend like they have been all season. So no worries about Edwards, he will be least a top 10 contender. Add-in he holds an 12.2 average finish for his career at Phoenix, I view him as one of the favorites headed into practice.
20-Matt Kenseth: Alright it official, the 2016 Nascar season hates Matt Kenseth. Sure seems like that, doesn't it? Leading at Datyona and get wrecked. Leading at Atlanta and get a costly penalty. Fast car at Vegas and spins. He have to eventually catch a break, right? I think so and I think it may this weekend at Phoenix. He have been pretty good at Phoenix recently. He wasn't very good here in last season's race and finished 16th. He missed the fall race because of suspension. Over the past 7 races here, he have compiled 5 Top 14 finishes. He not been a great driver at Phoenix throughout his career though. In 26 career starts, he have only managed 10 Top 10 finishes. For Kenseth that is a pretty low number in my opinion. Even though he have translated 60% of those Top 10 finishes into Top 5 finishes. I am not really worried about what he have done in the past at Phoenix, I am more focused on what he have done this season. Facts remains that Kenseth have been very fast in the previous two races with this package. I find that hard to overlook. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 guy at least.
21-Ryan Blaney: There isn't any past data to go on with Blaney, since he have never raced at Phoenix in a cup car. However he been pretty solid with this new package so far. I was very impressed by him at Vegas. Obviously you cannot really compare Vegas and Phoenix (since they are two different tracks), however it the same race package. So unless something crazy happen, I would expect Blaney to be a solid contender this week. Will he finish inside the top 10 again? Nope probably not, but he have stabilized himself as a top 15 already this season in my books.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an 2nd-place run at Vegas and will look to keep up the strong run at Phoenix. He been very good at Phoenix since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here , he have compiled 5.3 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 115.5 driver rating. He been pretty much equal with teammate Brad Keselowski across the board. Better even slightly a little better too. Minus his debut with Penske in 2013, he have knocked off 5 straight Top 9 finishes. Including 3 Top 6 finishes over the past 4 races. Don't think he just suddenly became good at Phoenix since joining Penske though. He have a knack for finishing well at Pheonix (even back in his JGR days). In 14 career starts, he have managed 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 9 Top 11 finishes in his previous 12 attempts. Outside of Kevin Harvick, I think Logano may be the best driver at Phoenix recently. He also is a strong qualifier at Phoenix too. 4 of his 6 starts in the #22 car have resulted in a top 4 starting position. Good starting positions have led to plenty of success for Logano. Don't be shocked to see an similar weekend develop for him!
24-Chase Elliott: Like Blaney didn't isn't a lot to talk about (or something I say preview), but I will say that I have set the bar too low for Chase thus far in my previews. He was really strong at Atlanta and once again strong at Vegas. It hard to make a bold prediction like saying he will have another top 10 run this week, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Elliott is an impressive young driver in top tier equipment. Once he get a little time behind the wheel at Phoenix, I think he will a legit top 15 (if not better). For now I have him as an low to mid teen driver. I acutally have higher hopes for Elliott than I would have thought before the season started. Perosnally I didn't think he would be running quite this well this early in the season. Now he just needs to be able to finish out there races.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is off to a great start this season with back-to-back top 18 finishes. Okay so that not great by any means, but still he is finishing respectably and that all that matters. He kinda disappointed at Vegas, but I wasn't overly shocked by how he finished after watching the first few runs. I was hoping for a finish closer to the top 10, but it just wasn't meant to be though. He been decent at Phoenix recently, but I wouldn't go crazy with him though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.5 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 71.7 driver rating. Not great numbers, but he did sweep the top 15 last season with finishes of 13th and 14th. Overall 5 of his past 7 races here have ended inside the top 20. So not like he finishing poorly, but I don't think the shorter-flats are a strong point for Menard and this 27 team though. He will hold more value on the intermediate racetracks. Personally I am not expecting anything beyond a top 20 finish from him this weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch for the second straight week (at Atlanta and Vegas) started on the pole and for the second straight week he faded in the latter stages of the race. That have to suck for the fantsy players who selected him to their fantasy teams. He made his debut in the 2015 season last season. Over the past 3 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He have managed 3 straight top 7 finishes at the racetrack and should be in for another this weekend. He been really good recently and pretty much always been good here. 7 of his past 11 results have ended inside the top 10 at Phoenix. Also it helps that he have Kevin Harvick as a teammate. It kinda like a bonus on top of being pretty good at Phoenix. Heck I would probably select to him some of my rosters right now, just because he have Harvick as a teammate. You would be surprise how much of avantage that could be.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson have started the season off terribly. He finished 26th at Atlatna (he was horrible) and then finished outside the top 30 at Vegas. Even though he was running pretty good up inside the top 12 before getting a pit road penalty that sent his day downhill. Right now I don't trust Kyle Larson or his teammate JMac. But I do believe they'll eventually turn it around. Will it be this weekend? Maybe. He haven't performed too bad recently at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. Not exactly great numbers, but not too bad either. He finished 10th last spring and had a pretty good car all race long. Wasn't anything beyond a 10th place car, but still that was good enough for him. In the fall, he wasn't so lucky. He finished 21st in the fall and looked solid on the first run of the race. But he just faded as the run were put on the board and eventually finished a lap down. That was odd race (race-shortened), so I will give him a pass on that one. Headed into the weekend, I am not really too high on Larson at the moment. I am going to play the wait and see game with him, before I decide what to do with him going forward.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have figured out his race package and making the competition know it. He won at Atlanta and had the car to beat at Vegas. Even though he finished 3rd. Something tells me, he will keep up his strong run at Phoenix as well. He always been a strong driver here, but he have taken a step back since the repave though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. That is a misleading stat-line, he finished 39th in the fall 2014 race. Otherwise he been consistent as they come at Phoenix. Over the past 6 races (dating back to 2013 season), he have managed 4 Top 6 finishes. Johnson have been ridiculous over his career here with 15 Top 5 finishes in just 25 races at this racetrack. Inlcuding 15 of those top 5 finishes ending in wins. A lot of times with a new race package, I try to disregard past history. But with Johnson it almost impossible to. His numbers are just so impressive, you are pretty blown away by it. Add-in how well he have ran so far this season, he is a top 5 guy headed into practice in my books.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have looked very good so far this season and I think he keeps it up at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He been pretty solid over his past 3 races at this racetrack. He have finished 14th or better in every race. Over his past 5 races at Phoenix, he have finished 14th or better in 3 of those 5 races. He been a consistent performer throughout his career at Phoenix. Over the past 14 races (dating back to the 2009 season), he have finished 20th or better in 11 of the past 14 races. Inlcuding 9 Top 14 finishes in that 14 race-span. I think he is an top 10 guy headed into the weekend practices.
88-Dale Jr: I consider Dale Jr to be one of the best kept secrets in fantsy nascar at Phoenix. He have been a strong driver at this racetrack and I think he will keep that up. He wrecked in last season's spring race, but followed it up with an upset win at Phoenix. Okay it wasn't really an upset, but it was because Kevin Harvick was the odd-on favorite to win that race. So a win is a win in my book. Over the past 6 races, he have finished 4 of those 6 races inside the top 5. In fact, he have finished 5 of those 6 races inside the top 8. Phoenix is actually one of Dale Jr's best racetracks since joining HMS in 2008. In his past 16 races, he have finished 11 of those 16 races inside the top 14. I view him easily as an top 10 driver headed into the weekend. I love him as an off-sequence fantasy pick, especially if everyone keeps him off their fantasy radars.
**All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @Jeffnathans18
