Welcome to TimersSports
Once again, Jeff Nathans won't be available so he won't be able to analyze data and contribute his personal opinion on the drivers headed into tomorrow's race. So you have to deal with me instead. To avoid confusion, I will keep it in Jeff's article format. For Phoenix, it will be all about the track position. This is a short race, so you cannot be wasting any time in mid-pack. If you are looking to finish up towards the front. Also pit selection will be key. Don't be shocked if the winner's of tomorrow race have one of the best pit stalls. You need a fast car, but you also need to be able to stay towards the front. As we saw in the NXS race, Kyle Busch was able to pull away from Erik Jones on pit road late in the event. Can Kevin Harvick overcome a poor starting position and win yet another race at PIR? Can Johnson and Busch extend their respected top 5 streaks? So many great questions that will be answered this weekend. Let get rolling!
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick was the heavy favorite headed into practice and it might scare off some people that he qualified poorly. However he looked pretty good in both practice on Saturday. I tracked his lap times in both sessions and consistently had really good lap times. That shouldn't surprise anyone though. He have dominated this place the past few seasons and I don't think that will change on Sunday. He should be able to charge through the field and contend for a win. Even though he does not have a dominating car in practice, he still have a very good racecar. With the way he have ran in the past, I have no doubt that Harvick will be up at the front. He's the safe bet this weekend and should probably be selected to your fantasy lineups.
2. Kurt Busch - Busch made a strong case that he was better than Harvick in practice, but hard to overlook the 4 car's dominances at Phoenix lately . Even though Kurt have been very good here since the repave at PIR and that apparently haven't changed. I think he will lead some laps early, but eventually take a backseat to teammate Kevin Harvick. If anyone is going to knock off the 4 team, then I would think it will be the driver of the 41 car. It helps that he can look off Harvick's notes and that was one of the primary reasons I thought he was such a great pick headed into the weekend.
3. Kyle Busch - Rowdy Busch will be a top 5 driver in Sunday's race and should lead some laps in the early going. Even though I don't think he will be able to hold off the SHR cars. However he looked pretty good in Saturday's final practice. Not to mention, he have a history of running pretty well at PIR. Then we take into consideration his hot start to the season, he could very well find himself in victory lane. I really like Kyle as a fantasy pick and should be considered on the short-list of potential race-winners. Taking Kyle as your fantasy pick never seems to be a bad idea, especially this season.
4. Joey Logano - Much like last season, Logano seems to be more often than not overlooked early in the season. I love when he is overlooked because there probably isn't a more consistent front-runner than Joey Logano. He proved that last week with an 2nd-place run. I believe he is about to go on a hot streak of finishes soon, so I will have my eye on him in Sunday's race. I fully expect him to contend for a top 5 finish and be up towards the front most of the day. He looked real good in practice and seems to have solid long run speed (like usual). Having long run speed in key most weekends and that exact what he seems to have. I would expect an finish between 3rd-6th place finish.
5. Dale Jr - I was going to go with Keselowski or Johnson instead of Junior for the 5th spot in this tier, but I don't think it will take terribly long for Dale to make his way to the front from the 26th starting position. If you have watched Dale over the years, then you realize that he isn't a very good qualifier nor does he looks super fast on Friday. However his team always get him looking good by final practice or at the least in the race. Trust me watch Dale Jr finish somewhere inside the top 10. Add in his strong track record recently at Pheonix, I think he is a very good fantasy pick. He looked good in final practice. He didn't post any overly fast lap in terms of ten-lap average or single fastest lap, but he will fine on Sunday.
Other Options - Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards does not have a race-winning car in my opinion, but I think he has a latter top 5 car to a solid top 10 car headed into Sunday's race. He is starting from the 2nd starting position and should be able to stay towards the front most of the day. Not only does Carl have a pretty good car, but he also have a solid track record here. It always nice a boost of confidences to have when a driver have a decent track record at an venue. 6 of his past 7 races at PIR have ended inside the top 15.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr have ran very well since start of the last season and that haven't changed this weekend. He qualified up inside the top 10 and looked good in both practices. Posted top 10 speeds in both sessions on the speed charts. He also posted the 3rd-best ten lap average in final practice. He also mentioned that his car turned pretty good too. Those are things that I like to hear, not to mention he have some speed in his Toyota. He also have posted 4 Top 14 finishes in his previous 5 starts at Phoenix. Overall he is hitting on every aspect: Good starting position, solid practice results, good recent history,etc. Not much to dislike about Truex as a fantasy pick for Sunday's race.
3. Austin Dillon - I debated who to put in this spot. Thought about a few different drivers, but Dillon is the only driver that made any sense. The deciding factor was his hot start to the season and his semi-success last season at Phoenix. He wasn't overly impressive in practice by any means, but he is a top 15 driver headed into Sunday's race. While I don't think he will be able to make up his Vegas effort from last week, I am sure he will make a fine fantasy option for those that are looking for a teen-finish. He finished 15th and 20th last season in 2 races at PIR.
4. Kasey Kahne - Yes I know Kahne is starting deep in the field for race, but he have some speed in his #5 Chevy and posted the best ten lap average in final practice. He is in a backup car, but I thought he looked pretty solid in both of the practices. Kahne is known for his wild inconsistent finishes over the years, but I do believe he is worth the gamble this weekend. If he does not any problems, then I think he will finishes somewhere between 8th-14th place range. I would say he finishes inside the top 15 more than likely though. There obviously risk with Kahne and I would recommend going with someone else, if you can. But I don't think he is a terrible option.
5. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson is probably a dark horse for the top 10 this week. I could see him finishing inside the top 10, but I also could see him finishing somewhere outside of the top 15. He showed some good lap times, but I don't have much faith him yet. So far in his cup career, he have proven to show speed in practice and lay an egg on raceday. While I think there is a lot of risk with him, I do see the upside in selecting him for Sunday's race. As he have found some success at PIR in his first 4 races and certainly could surprise some people. Question is what Larson shows up on Sunday will likely determines his fantasy production!
Other Options - Paul Menard, Ryan Newman, Jamie Mac and Ricky Stenhouse Jr
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney looked the best the top 3 (Blaney, Elliott and Dillon) in this tier. Blaney will start from the 12th starting position and seems to have a lot of speed in his Wood brothers Ford in practice on Saturday. He posted the 10th quickest lap and 7th-best ten lap average in final practice. Blaney have had a habit of being fast this season and I haven't seen anything that should change our expecatations of him. I think he will finish up towards the front like he did last week. Will it be another top 10? Unlikely, but I would not rule it though. One thing I have learn this season about these rookies, they will outrun your original expecatations of them. I have been impressive by him and Chase Elliott so far.
2. Chase Elliott - Elliott being Elliott so far this weekend. Keeping a low-profile while making consistent gains on his racecar throughout the weekend. He posted the 4th-best single lap, but what concerns me is he didn't post an best-ten lap average though. So it hard to say what he has for the long run. But all of his teammates seems to have good speed, so I am not very worried about it. Knowing Elliott, he will finish somewhere inside the top 15 (if not better as the race progresses).
3. Ty Dillon - Dillon looked the worst of the three, but I don't believe he was as bad as he qualified. I honestly I was a little surpised that he qualified as bad as he did. Sure he wasn't blazing fast in practice, but he better than 28th. Trust me, I expect Dillon to move forward least 5 to 10 position from that spot. So he should be a great fantasy option for differential position leagues that rewards drivers for improving their positions. While Dillon didn't blow me away, I do think we will see an top 25 finish from him. More than likely, he should hover for a top 20 and that all we can ask for from him. Really anything beyond 22nd place is probably gravy at this point. Since he really haven't shown ton of speed.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Once again, Jeff Nathans won't be available so he won't be able to analyze data and contribute his personal opinion on the drivers headed into tomorrow's race. So you have to deal with me instead. To avoid confusion, I will keep it in Jeff's article format. For Phoenix, it will be all about the track position. This is a short race, so you cannot be wasting any time in mid-pack. If you are looking to finish up towards the front. Also pit selection will be key. Don't be shocked if the winner's of tomorrow race have one of the best pit stalls. You need a fast car, but you also need to be able to stay towards the front. As we saw in the NXS race, Kyle Busch was able to pull away from Erik Jones on pit road late in the event. Can Kevin Harvick overcome a poor starting position and win yet another race at PIR? Can Johnson and Busch extend their respected top 5 streaks? So many great questions that will be answered this weekend. Let get rolling!
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick was the heavy favorite headed into practice and it might scare off some people that he qualified poorly. However he looked pretty good in both practice on Saturday. I tracked his lap times in both sessions and consistently had really good lap times. That shouldn't surprise anyone though. He have dominated this place the past few seasons and I don't think that will change on Sunday. He should be able to charge through the field and contend for a win. Even though he does not have a dominating car in practice, he still have a very good racecar. With the way he have ran in the past, I have no doubt that Harvick will be up at the front. He's the safe bet this weekend and should probably be selected to your fantasy lineups.
2. Kurt Busch - Busch made a strong case that he was better than Harvick in practice, but hard to overlook the 4 car's dominances at Phoenix lately . Even though Kurt have been very good here since the repave at PIR and that apparently haven't changed. I think he will lead some laps early, but eventually take a backseat to teammate Kevin Harvick. If anyone is going to knock off the 4 team, then I would think it will be the driver of the 41 car. It helps that he can look off Harvick's notes and that was one of the primary reasons I thought he was such a great pick headed into the weekend.
3. Kyle Busch - Rowdy Busch will be a top 5 driver in Sunday's race and should lead some laps in the early going. Even though I don't think he will be able to hold off the SHR cars. However he looked pretty good in Saturday's final practice. Not to mention, he have a history of running pretty well at PIR. Then we take into consideration his hot start to the season, he could very well find himself in victory lane. I really like Kyle as a fantasy pick and should be considered on the short-list of potential race-winners. Taking Kyle as your fantasy pick never seems to be a bad idea, especially this season.
4. Joey Logano - Much like last season, Logano seems to be more often than not overlooked early in the season. I love when he is overlooked because there probably isn't a more consistent front-runner than Joey Logano. He proved that last week with an 2nd-place run. I believe he is about to go on a hot streak of finishes soon, so I will have my eye on him in Sunday's race. I fully expect him to contend for a top 5 finish and be up towards the front most of the day. He looked real good in practice and seems to have solid long run speed (like usual). Having long run speed in key most weekends and that exact what he seems to have. I would expect an finish between 3rd-6th place finish.
5. Dale Jr - I was going to go with Keselowski or Johnson instead of Junior for the 5th spot in this tier, but I don't think it will take terribly long for Dale to make his way to the front from the 26th starting position. If you have watched Dale over the years, then you realize that he isn't a very good qualifier nor does he looks super fast on Friday. However his team always get him looking good by final practice or at the least in the race. Trust me watch Dale Jr finish somewhere inside the top 10. Add in his strong track record recently at Pheonix, I think he is a very good fantasy pick. He looked good in final practice. He didn't post any overly fast lap in terms of ten-lap average or single fastest lap, but he will fine on Sunday.
Other Options - Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards does not have a race-winning car in my opinion, but I think he has a latter top 5 car to a solid top 10 car headed into Sunday's race. He is starting from the 2nd starting position and should be able to stay towards the front most of the day. Not only does Carl have a pretty good car, but he also have a solid track record here. It always nice a boost of confidences to have when a driver have a decent track record at an venue. 6 of his past 7 races at PIR have ended inside the top 15.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr have ran very well since start of the last season and that haven't changed this weekend. He qualified up inside the top 10 and looked good in both practices. Posted top 10 speeds in both sessions on the speed charts. He also posted the 3rd-best ten lap average in final practice. He also mentioned that his car turned pretty good too. Those are things that I like to hear, not to mention he have some speed in his Toyota. He also have posted 4 Top 14 finishes in his previous 5 starts at Phoenix. Overall he is hitting on every aspect: Good starting position, solid practice results, good recent history,etc. Not much to dislike about Truex as a fantasy pick for Sunday's race.
3. Austin Dillon - I debated who to put in this spot. Thought about a few different drivers, but Dillon is the only driver that made any sense. The deciding factor was his hot start to the season and his semi-success last season at Phoenix. He wasn't overly impressive in practice by any means, but he is a top 15 driver headed into Sunday's race. While I don't think he will be able to make up his Vegas effort from last week, I am sure he will make a fine fantasy option for those that are looking for a teen-finish. He finished 15th and 20th last season in 2 races at PIR.
4. Kasey Kahne - Yes I know Kahne is starting deep in the field for race, but he have some speed in his #5 Chevy and posted the best ten lap average in final practice. He is in a backup car, but I thought he looked pretty solid in both of the practices. Kahne is known for his wild inconsistent finishes over the years, but I do believe he is worth the gamble this weekend. If he does not any problems, then I think he will finishes somewhere between 8th-14th place range. I would say he finishes inside the top 15 more than likely though. There obviously risk with Kahne and I would recommend going with someone else, if you can. But I don't think he is a terrible option.
5. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson is probably a dark horse for the top 10 this week. I could see him finishing inside the top 10, but I also could see him finishing somewhere outside of the top 15. He showed some good lap times, but I don't have much faith him yet. So far in his cup career, he have proven to show speed in practice and lay an egg on raceday. While I think there is a lot of risk with him, I do see the upside in selecting him for Sunday's race. As he have found some success at PIR in his first 4 races and certainly could surprise some people. Question is what Larson shows up on Sunday will likely determines his fantasy production!
Other Options - Paul Menard, Ryan Newman, Jamie Mac and Ricky Stenhouse Jr
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney looked the best the top 3 (Blaney, Elliott and Dillon) in this tier. Blaney will start from the 12th starting position and seems to have a lot of speed in his Wood brothers Ford in practice on Saturday. He posted the 10th quickest lap and 7th-best ten lap average in final practice. Blaney have had a habit of being fast this season and I haven't seen anything that should change our expecatations of him. I think he will finish up towards the front like he did last week. Will it be another top 10? Unlikely, but I would not rule it though. One thing I have learn this season about these rookies, they will outrun your original expecatations of them. I have been impressive by him and Chase Elliott so far.
2. Chase Elliott - Elliott being Elliott so far this weekend. Keeping a low-profile while making consistent gains on his racecar throughout the weekend. He posted the 4th-best single lap, but what concerns me is he didn't post an best-ten lap average though. So it hard to say what he has for the long run. But all of his teammates seems to have good speed, so I am not very worried about it. Knowing Elliott, he will finish somewhere inside the top 15 (if not better as the race progresses).
3. Ty Dillon - Dillon looked the worst of the three, but I don't believe he was as bad as he qualified. I honestly I was a little surpised that he qualified as bad as he did. Sure he wasn't blazing fast in practice, but he better than 28th. Trust me, I expect Dillon to move forward least 5 to 10 position from that spot. So he should be a great fantasy option for differential position leagues that rewards drivers for improving their positions. While Dillon didn't blow me away, I do think we will see an top 25 finish from him. More than likely, he should hover for a top 20 and that all we can ask for from him. Really anything beyond 22nd place is probably gravy at this point. Since he really haven't shown ton of speed.
Twitter - @MattAleza
