2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Paul Menard

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Paul Menard is probably one of the most underrated drivers in the Cup field, as I don't ever think he get the credit he deserves. The common image of him among the general public is that Menard is nothing but a rich kid living off Daddy's pockets. And I don't disagree with that, however he always seems to be run around top 15 or sometimes even the top 10. You know what that sounds like? A very typical RCR performance. Menard over the past few seasons haven't anything special, but his strong starts have turned into solid fantasy production. I won't get super detailed into that, as I am sure my fellow analysis Garry Briggs will cover that in his 2016 Sleeper post coming up. I do want to say that Menard is a low to middle teen driver with the upside to sneak away with some top 10 finishes. Commonly his finish range is from 12th to 17th. I would expect majority of his finishes to come there.

Intermediate racetracks will be a strong spot for Menard and RCR in 2016. He was fast last season for a majority of the season on this type racetrack, but his results really fell off in second half of the season towards the chase. Which didn't really surprise me though. He finished 8 of the first 10 intermediate races inside the top 15. The final 7? Only 1 Top 15 finishes and 2 total top 20 finishes. His two top 20 finishes were Texas and Kansas. Last season on the intermediate tracks (17 races), he compiled 17.2 average finish, 17.8 average start, 17.9 average running position and 77.4 driver rating.  Menard just doesn't have one or two good Intermediate tracks. He probably have 4 or 5 racetracks that could considered as his best. Texas, Cali, Las Vegas, Kansas and Michigan all have been very kind to him the past few seasons. I would say Michigan and Las Vegas are his best two tracks. I would say Cali is directly behind. Michigan is probably his best racetrack overall. Over the past two seasons at Michigan (4 races), he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 13.3 average start, 12.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Among active drivers, he ranked inside the top 10 in every major category over the past two seasons. Including 4th-best average finish, 10th-best average starting position, 6th-best average running position and 7th-best average running position. Pretty strong for Menard overall. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. Prior to that? He had 3 straight top 4 finishes. Overall, he have 7 straight top 14 finishes dating back to 2012. Including 3 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes. Not to mention, he have 5 straight top 12 finishes headed into the 2016 season. If there any doubt that Michigan isn't Menard's best racetrack, then you are pretty much living in denial.

The second Intermediate track that I want to look at is Las Vegas. I think this is one of his very best tracks and he should be on everyone radar. He been pretty stout since joining RCR at Vegas. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 7.5 average finish, 22.5 average start, 13.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and it was probably his worst performance since joining RCR back in 2012. His previous 3 races? 4th, 10th and 7th. Overall he have finished 12th or better in every race dating back to the 2011 season. His best race probably came back in 2014 though. He had a bullet in that event on the long run. He probably had the car to beat on the long run and could have won that race, if it ended on a longer run. But it didn't, so he ended up 4th for that race. Other Intermediate tracks he will perform well at is Cali (best average finish over the past two seasons - 6.0), Texas (had top 5 car last spring before mechanical issue after a pit stop), and Kansas (11 Straight top 20 finishes with 4 top 10 in past 7 races). Overall I expect Menard to be a strong driver on the intermediate racetracks. I think he will be a force early on at tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, Kansas,etc. He is known to be a quick starter, but typically falls off as the season progresses. I don't think 2016 will any different either!

Shorter flats are probably his next strongest type racetrack after the intermediates. Last season on the shorter flats (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he compiled 16.8 average finish, 21.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. At Phoenix, he finished 13th and 14th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 23rd in both races in 2014. Overall, he have finished inside the top 20 in 5 of the past 7 races at Phoenix. I would expect him to finish inside the top 12th to 20th range at Phoenix range probably. He been a little better at New Hampshire overall  I would say. Over the past 4 races t Phoenix, he have compiled 18.5 average finish, 21.8 average start, 18.3 average running position and 71.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he really only had one bad finish and that was 25th last July. He was better than that in the race though. He probably had a teen car and would have finished there, if the race played out differently for him. His other three races over the past two seasons? He have compiled 16.3 average finish, 19.7 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. In those 3 races, he have finishes of 15th, 15th and 19th. Overall, he have finished 7 of the past 9 New Hampshire races inside the top 20. Including 5 of the past 8 have ended in 17th or better. 3 of those races ended inside the top 15. His best result? 12th back in 2012. I would expect a finish between 12th and 17th at New Hampshire.

Larger Flats should be another decent type racetrack for Paul Menard. I think he may be a little bit stronger on the shorter flats, but still expect good results from him. Last season on the large flats (Indy and Pocono), he have compiled 18.7 average finish, 15.0 average start, 22.3 average running position and 72.5 driver rating. Pocono is probably considered one of Paul's worst tracks over the past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.5 average start, 24.3 average running position and 64.9 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''So he sucks at Pocono?'' Oh but that far from the truth. He is actually a very strong driver at Pocono. Prior to finishing 11th last August, he had 5 straight finishes of 26th or worse. 4 of those finishes ended outside of the top 30. So why am I so positive about him at Pocono? I am glad you asked! Two things actually: 1) Every single of those races he finished poorly in, can be blamed on pure bad luck. Wrecks, blown tires, penalties,etc. 2) From June 2010 to August 2012 (6 races), he finished 16th or better in every race. Including finishes of 14th, 10th (2011) and 11th and 9th (2012). So in basic terms, he is either top 15 or bust at Pocono over his past 12 races overall. At Indy, he been much more consistent. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 26.0 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. He will largely be known for his Brickyard win, but what many don't remember how he won that race on fuel strategy. If that race was another lap or two, I was 100% certain that Jeff Gordon would have won that race. But since how have he done? Very well actually. 3 of his past 4 starts since his win, he have finished 12th, 14th and 14th. Fairly respectably in my opinion. Overall he have finished 14th or better in 5 of his past 6 races at Indy, dating back to the 2010 season with RPM.  I expect him to contend for finishes from 11th to 15th mainly at the larger flats. Even though he may not get the finishes he deserve in the end.

Short tracks will likely be a up and down type track for him in 2016. I don't expect to perform poorly, but I don't expect him to blow us away either. Last season the shorts (Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol), he compiled 19.0 average finish, 19.0 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Martinsville, he had finishes of 23rd and 15th. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 18.5 average start, 19.0 average running position and 74.6 driver rating. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 7 races inside the top 20. Including 3 of the past 4 races ending inside the top 15. Very underrated at Martinsville and should be under the radar for those that like stealing fantasy value. His best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 20.8 average start, 18.5 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. Over the past two seasons, he have two poor finishes (24th, 21st) and two solid finishes (11th, 9th). Overall he been very consistent at Bristol. He have finished 11th or better in 7 of the past 10 races at Bristol. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he had 4 straight top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 seasons. He added another top 10 finish in August 2014. In simpler terms, he is either top 10 or nothing. He been at his worst at Richmond over the past two seasons, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 15.0 average start, 21.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 26th and 15th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th, 24th (2014) and 5th, 13th. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 8 races inside the top 18. 4 of those 5 top 20 finishes ended inside top 15. I would expect a finish between 13th and 20th realistically.

Plates tracks of Daytona and Talladega will probably be one of his best shots at victory in my opinion. He have done a great job in seasons past to run respectably. I think Menard is one of the most underrated plate racers in the field. Not only does he usually have the speed to run well, but he also understand how to use the draft to his advantage. In my opinion, he had the opportunity to learn from two solid plate racers of Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton. I do believe he learned a lot from both of them. One of the reasons why he usually good for a few solid finishes at both Daytona and Talladega. He been better at Talladega than Daytona lately though. Not going to spend a lot of time on the plates, but I would expect him to run very well at both tracks. However he tend to be inconsistent. Most times, he should be good for a low teen to mid 20 finish. Commonly he will wreck out or finish near the top 5 though. More often than not, it doesn't seems to be the case.

Road Courses will be a place where Paul Menard is very underrated at. When we think road courses, he don't usually think about Menard. However he have been very respectably overall when looking at his numbers. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 9.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 18.0 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 5th the past two seasons. He been pretty good for awhile though. He have 5 straight top 20 finishes at Sonoma. Including 3 straight top 14 finishes over the past three seasons. He been a bit more inconsistent at Watkin Glenn. Over the past two seasons at WGI, he have compiled 22.5 average finish, 24.0 average start, 30.0 average running position and 52.2 driver rating. Misleading stats right there. He finished 13th in last season's event. In 2014? He finished 32nd, after finishing 3 laps off the pace. Prior to those two finishes? He had 4 of the previous 6 races inside the top 19. Including finishes of 12th, 16th and 17th. Overall, he have finished 3 of the his 5 career races with RCR inside the top 17. He should be good for a teen finish at both road courses, if all goes according to plan for him.

Let wrap up this preview, Paul Menard is one of the most underrated drivers in the series and will contend for mainly teen-like finishes. He is quick starter to the season, so make sure you jump on that value early and often. Because there is a very good chance that he won't have that same type of production late in the season. I think the window of fantasy production is larger than it was 2 or 3 seasons ago, but I also believe his volume of production will tamper off more. In simpler terms, I don't believe he will see same level of quality top 5 and top 10 finishes like we saw in the past. Even though he will be more consistent for a longer period of time. If you want to max out his fantasy value, then make sure you use him on the intermediate tracks early in the season. It seems to be a common trend in recent seasons that Menard perform his best on these venues as the season is fresh. It will be interesting to see if recent trends hold true, or if we will see a different Menard in 2016.


Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ricky Stenhouse Jr

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr will enter his fourth full-time season with RFR. After a strong rookie season back in 2013, many (including myself) thought that RFR have found themselves a solid replacement for the recently departed Matt Kenseth. However after back-to-back seasons of disappointment, there are doubt about how good Ricky Stenhouse Jr is. I think he is starting to take role as the leader of this organization when it comes down to it. There were slight flashes of potential at end of the 2015 season. It was a very dim glance of the 2013 Ricky Stenhouse Jr, but still there a little hope for him. Most weekends I expect him to be a high teen to low-20 driver at best. If he can create some consistency in the middle to high teens in 2016, then I think he could be a solid fantasy option for players. I think consistency will be very key for him and without I don't see him holding much fantasy value on most race weekends.

I would say his best days will come on the shorter flats of New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both racetracks have been solid venues for him so far in his cup career and more importantly have ran well the past two seasons. On the shorter flats in 2015 (4 races), he compiled 20.8 average finish, 19.8 average start, 20.5 average running position and 71.6 driver rating. Last season at New Hampshire he was pretty solid overall. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 75.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 17th at New Hampshire. He wasn't great in either race, but he was respectably a high-teen driver in the 2nd New Hampshire race and held 19.0 average running position. In 2014, he had finishes of 39th and 9th. So he has 3 Top 17 finishes in his past 4 races at New Hampshire. Not too bad at all! He been just as good at Phoenix as well. Last season at Phoenix, he compiled 26.5 average finish, 16.5 average start, 21.0 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. He finished 41st and 12th last season at Phoenix. Prior to finishing 41st last fall, he had 5 straight top 18 finishes. So let's look at the past 3 races at Phoenix to get some realistic data. Over the past 3 Phoenix races (Minus 2015 Fall race), he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 17.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 69.1 driver rating. He probably had his best race ever at Phoenix last spring where he finished 12th. In the event he had 19.0 average running position and 78.0 driver rating. Considering how poorly RFR have performed over the past few seasons, I would say that solid effort right there. When Stenhouse have an high teen-type car and can stay competitively around there, then it a good day for him.

Intermediate racetracks may not be a primary strength for RFR anymore like it was 4 or 5 years ago, but Stenhouse Jr have ran respectably last season there more specifically on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Over the final 5 races on this type of racetrack, he compiled 17.4 average finish, 22.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. Not great numbers but still real solid for him. I would gladly take those numbers. Considering he finished 3 of those 5 races in either 13th or 18th. His worst finish was 22nd at Homestead. His best intermediate racetrack is probably Kansas honestly which isn't really that impressive though. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 19.5 average finish, 20.3 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.2 driver rating. Across the board pretty decent numbers for Stenhouse. Not anything special, but he was pretty good last fall at Kansas. That was probably his best race at Kansas outside of his debut in 2013. Last fall at Kansas, he finished 13th and managed 17.0 average running position with 79.8 driver rating. Overall 3 of his past 4 races at Kansas have in 22nd or better. Including 2 of those 3 races ending inside the top 20. His second best racetrack is probably Chicago. Over the past two seasons at Chicago, he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 15.5 average start, 16.5 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. In 3 career starts, his worst career finish is 18th that came last season. It only a small sample size, but he have yet to have a bad race at Chicago. His performance at Chicago have dipped each season, but still it better than most of his track though. Last season, he started 27th, finished 18th (2 laps down), held 20.0 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. He was a high teen to low-20 driver for most of that race, but fairly respectably overall. Anytime Stenhouse performs in the high teens to low-20, I think he will have the potential to steal a quality top 15 or top 18 finish. Given the race plays out for him right. I am not going to sit here and try to tell you how great Stenhouse is, because he isn't. If he get a teen finish on the intermediate racetracks, then that is considered a good day for him probably. I see potential with him though. I think back to how he ran at end of last season during the chase, it gives me a little hope that he can find some consistency in 2016.

Short tracks will probably be his worst type racetrack (along with Road courses and large flats) in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Richmond, Bristol and Martinsville), he compiled 24.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He been probably the best at Bristol over the past two seasons. At Bristol over the past two seasons, he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 18.8 average start, 15.3 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. Prior to last season, he had three straight top 6 finishes at Bristol. In span of races, where he compiled 4.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. Let's not get too excited though. The Bristol races been a bit wreckful lately and a lot of quality drivers have ended several laps down. So while he been solid here throughout his short career, I wouldn't expect though type of numbers to continue. Last summer at Bristol was probably his worst race ever at the short track where he finished 21st. To be fair, that not his fault entirely though. He was running respectably running in the teens and got sent for a spin and finished 4 laps down.  He haven't been very good at Richmond over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 19.8 average start, 26.3 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. In those 4 races, he have finished of 16th, 26th, 28th and 38th. His lone good finish came in his last race at Richmond last fall. In the fall Richmond race, he started 19th, finished 16th, held 19.0 average running position and 69.7 driver rating. He wasn't great or anything in that race, but it was nice to see him run respectably for change at this track. Outside of his rookie season in 2013, he have ran pretty poor in his previous three starts. Then there Martinsville and unquestionably one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 33.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 31.5 average running position and 46.8 driver rating. In 6 career starts, his best career finish came in 15th fall 2014. Prior to that his best result came in his debut in 2013, where he finished 25th. Overall he have finished 31st or worse in 4 of his past 5 Martinsvlle starts. Including 39th or 40th in his past 3 of 4 races at Martinsville. Do yourself a favor and just avoid him here, okay? Okay cool! He will be his best at Bristol and probably be good for a middle to high teen finish. At Richmond, I would expect a low to middle-20 type finish out of him. Maybe top 20, if he have a decent car.

Larger flats will be one of the type tracks that will be the toughest for Stenhouse because the lack of horsepower. He never have performed well at either racetrack though. Last season at larger flats, he compiled 39.3 average finish, 26.7 average start, 32.3 average running position and 46.6 driver rating. Yeah he was pretty bad overall. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 29.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 28.8 average running position and 53.5 driver rating. He had finishes of 41st and 42nd last season at Pocono. In 2014, he had finishes of 15th and 18th. Overall in 6 races, he have finished 26th or worse in 4 of 6 races. The good news is? His finishes are close to together each season so far at Pocono. 41st, 42nd (2015), 15th, 18th (2014) and 26th, 34th (2013). He been just as bad at Indy, if not worse though. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 29.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 24.5 average running position and 54.0 driver rating. Last season he had his worst effort in 3 starts with 35th place finish. In his previous two starts, he had finishes of 24th and 25th. So not like he have performed very well at either venue so far in his career at RFR. I expect low to middle 20s finishes from him at both tracks realistically.

Plate tracks will likely be the best spot for Stenhouse to score strong finishes at. Over the past 4 races at Daytona, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 28.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 62.5 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 29th. He started off his career with 4 straight top 20 finishes, but since have finished 29th or worse in 2 of his past 3 races. Not exactly encouraging fantasy trends, but still it more about lucky than anything. He just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Talladega have been kinder to him so far in his career though. Over the past 3 races at Talladega, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Overall in 5 races, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those 5 races. In 3 of the 5 races, he have finished inside the top 10. Honestly it hard to predict how the races will play out, but I would say he will have pretty good opportunity to finish respectably. However I would say he will have mix finishes in 2016 though. Realistically two strong finishes and two more poor-ish ones.

Road courses will also be where he performs poorly at in 2016. He have not proven that he is that good of a road course racer yet and still think he ways away. Over the past 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 25.5 average finish, 32.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 58.5 driver rating. He finished 20th last season which remains his best race thus far in 3 career races. In his previous other two races, he had finishes of 31st and 27th. He haven't been much better at Watkin Glenn so far in his career either. Over the past 2 races at WGI, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 26.5 average running position and 50.4 driver rating. He finished 34th. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th and 20th in his first two career races at WGI. I am not going to go much into details about Stenhouse Jr at road course, because there really isn't enough data to make a good assumption about him. He should finish anywhere from 18th-23rd on a good race weekend at a road course though.

I am not going to try to sell you how good of a driver Stenhouse Jr is because I cannot. I couldn't even if I wanted to, I don't think anyone could. Simple as it is, RFR development will be key going forward in 2016 for Ricky's success. If RFR does improves in 2016, then I would expect finishes mostly in the high teens. However I am not banking on that. Realistically I am expecting a lot of finishes in the low to middle 20s. Even though I think he will have his fair share of top 15 and top 20 finishes. If he can build any type of consistency, then I think he will become a shallow fantasy option in certain option. For now I don't think he hold much value outside of the plates and shorter flats tracks though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jamie Mac

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Jamie McMuarry was probably the biggest surprised not named Martin Truex Jr in the 2015 season, yet he never really got much credit. Considering everyone was drooling over his teammate Kyle Larson after the 2014 season. Yet it was Jamie McMurray who made the chase and outproduce the younger CGR driver. It was also surprising that Jamie was consistent as he was. He never been known for his consistency and 2015 was arguably his best season ever. In 2016, I don't think he will remain as consistent. I personally don't think he will make the chase like he did in 2015, but I do think he can have a very respectably season.

Short tracks is where Jamie will be his strongest at in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he posted 9.0 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Those are some very impressive numbers! He had the best average finish among drivers who raced all 6 times on the short tracks. Only Kyle Busch had a better average finish, but he missed a few races on the short tracks. He had the 3rd best average running position to only Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch who ran all 6 short track races. He also completed the most laps inside the top 15 which comes out to about 92%. And his driver rating ranked 6th best in the series as well. I would say Martinsville is his best racetrack Over the past 6 races, he have posted 14.5 average finish with 12.2 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 2nd and 10th. He had one of the strongest cars last fall during the chase and was easily a top 5 driver. Last spring at Martinsville, he wasn't nearly as strong, but he still was a legit top 10 driver during the race. He had about 10th place to 12th place car for that event. In 2014 spring Martinsville race, he was running inside or very close to the top 5. However he was dumped by Dale Jr and finished 42nd. In 2014 fall Martinsville race, he started from the pole and led 84 laps onto his way to 16th place finish. Misleading though. He had a top 5 car for that event and should have finished there too. However on a last restart, he restarted on the outside and well that pretty much ended his chances at a solid finish. He also been very good at Bristol over the past few seasons. Over the past 6 Bristol races, he have posted 16.7 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 14th. Jamie wasn't overly strong in either race, but had quality finishes in both events. I would say he would stronger in the summer race though. In that event, he was running around the top 5 when
Clint Bowyer blew a tire and Jamie happen to be right behind him. That probably ruined any chance of a top 5 or a top 10 finish, but he still managed a respectably finish. Regardless he was strong for that entire race. In summer race of 2014, he was dominated at Martinsville for a good portion of the race. He led 148 laps and arguably had the car to beat until about the final quarter of the race. A caution flew late and he restarted in the wrong line and that cost him a few spots on the restart. After that, his car was never really the same it was up front. He faded and finished about 8th in the race when the checkers waved. Richmond is another great racetrack for Jamie. I would say he been his best here based off of stats. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have posted 7.6 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 13th and 4th. Last spring at Richmond, he probably had the car to beat on the long run or at worst the 2nd best car to eventual winner Kurt Busch. The end of the race didn't go according to plan though. There wasn't really any long runs after the halfway point, so Jamie never could take advantage how strong his car was. All of the cautions in that race came in the late stages, so it kinda ruined Jamie's chance at victory. The previous race before that was September 2014. He also finished 4th in that race and was real strong. The previous September race in 2013? He finished 4th once a gain. In those three races, he have posted 4.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.5 driver rating. He finished 13th in the remaining two races. He should be a legit top 10 threat at the short tracks in 2016 as he have been the previous two seasons.

Shorter flat racetracks will likely be other strong tracks for Jamie Mac. Last season he was strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at New Hampshire he had finishes of 26th and 14th. If I remember right he was running inside the top 10 last season at the first New Hampshire race, but something happened to his engine and dropped down the running order. Prior to that 26th place finish, he had finishes of 4th, 16th, 5th and 12th in the previous two seasons. In the 6 races at New Hampshire overall, he have posted 12.8 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. His numbers would be even better if he would have been able to finish out his strong run last season at New Hampshire. So overall New Hampshire been a great track over the past three seasons. At Phoenix recently, he been fairly good overall I would say. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 10.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, his finishes consist of 15th, 2nd, 14th and 10th. He didn't really have any good runs at Phoenix prior to the past two seasons though. In his first 21 races at Phoenix (from 2002 to 2013), he only managed 5 Top 15 finishes. Now he have 4 Top 15 finishes in his past 4 races. Pretty impressive turn around for Jamie Mac at Phoenix I would say. Last season combined on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he posted 14.3 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. Based on his recent numbers and everything being factored in, I would say he have a lot of low to middle teen finishes at the short flat racetracks.


Intermediate racetracks will be another strength for Jamie McMurray in 2016. This been a type racetrack that have been kind to Jamie the past few seasons. More specifically the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks have been a strong spot for him. Last season, he was one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Last season on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he posted 15.8 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 80.3 driver rating. Of the 11 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he only managed 2 top 10 finishes. However remember his is a consistent driver so he wasn't nothing flashy. Even though 7 of the 11 races did end inside the top 15 and 10 of the 11 races ended inside the top 20. His lone non-top 20 finish? Atlanta. Where he was involved in that big wreck in the early stages. He finished 40th. Historically speaking and more recently, I would say Texas and Charlotte would be considered as his best racetracks. I would say Texas have been his best 1.5 mile track over the past few seasons. He had 2 top 10 finishes last season and both of them came at Texas. In fact he have 3 straight top 10 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. In 24 career starts at Texas, Jamie have posted 16.9 average finish with 9 Top 10 and 17 top 20 finishes. His best finish came in 2nd back in 2005 when he was with CGR the first time. His best performance was probably in 2008 where he finished 3rd and led a career-high 56 laps when he still with RFR. Charlotte is probably considered his next best 1.5 mile track. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 12th. Both CGR cars struggled in the spring race and never really contended for even top 20 finishes. In the fall, he wasn't overly great either but still was much better than in the spring though. It was probably a year to forgive at Charlotte for Jamie. In 2014, he was fast. He swept the top 5 with finishes of 3rd and 5th. When looking at his track record, I am not real impressed. He been either top 5 or bust mostly. At same time, Charlotte is the only track he have finished inside top 5 multiple times at over the past two seasons. In fact, Charlotte is the only intermediate racetrack that he have ever won at. And it only one of 4 racetrack that he have won at. In 2016, I think Jamie will not be able to repeat 2015 success. I think he will have more top 10 finishes, but less top 20 finishes though.

Road Courses will be where Jamie is pretty underrated at. He is a quality racer course racer and I don't think everyone realize that. Sonoma been a decent track over the past two seasons. He finished 11th in last season's event and finished 4th in 2014. He was strong again in 2013, but his race was a mess. He started on the pole and stood with the leaders. However then I believe he had to pit for a flat tire and never really was able to catch back up fully. Long story short, he was stuck back in mid-pack for most of the race. In his career at Sonoma, he only have two top 10 finishes (back ending inside the top 5), but most of his finishes have came from 11th-20th. That where I am willing to bet where he finishes in 2016 at Sonoma too. He have struggled at Watkins Glenn more than Sonoma. His best career finish is 3rd back with RFR in 2006. At first glance, he have been pretty bad with career average of 20.6 with 2 Top 10 finishes in 13 career races. No so fast though. In 8 of the 13 races, he have finished inside the top 17. 6 of those 8 races have ended in 11th-17th place range. Including 3 of the past 5 races have ended in 11th-17 place finish range. His two finishes not inside the top 17? 40th and 39th. Both races he finished multiple laps down. So not like he performed poorly.

The big flat racetracks will be decent for Jamie McMurray overall in 2016. Pocono and Indy have been tracks that he have found success at. Jamie will always be known for his win at the Brickyard in 2010. He have not been as strong in previous seasons, but does not mean he haven't been productive though. Since winning at Indy in 2010, he have finishes of 4th, 22nd, 15th, 16th and 20th. Like I mentioned before those aren't numbers but they are still pretty solid overall. Over the past two seasons, he have posted 18.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position. So he haven't great recently, so I wouldn't expect anything beyond a top 15 finish probably. Realistically I would say 14th-20th is the most likely outcome at Indy. He been better at Pocono recently though. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 9.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, his finishes consist of 15th, 10th, 7th and 7th. In fact he have 8 straight top 17 finishes dating back to the 2012 season. Before finishing 15th last August, he have had three straight top 10 finishes. In 2015 on the big flat racetracks (3 races), he posted 12.7 average finish with 14.7 average running position.

Restrictor Plate tracks will be where he will be able to perform well at, but he won't always get the results he want though. Last season at Daytona, he posted 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 80.0 driver rating. Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he have been super inconsistent. Every single season dating back to the 2012 season, he have one top 15 finish and one finish outside of the top 26. Every since year he seems to have one solid finish and one disappointing finish. Not something I would really want in a fantasy pick. Aside from his win at Talladega in 2013, Jamie have been just as inconsistent at Talladega. Over the past 9 races at Talladega, he have finished 29th or worse in 5 races and only 3 top 11 finishes. Even though one of those top 11s, ended in a win. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have posted 28.5 average finish with 24.0 average running position and 64.5 driver rating. I am not going to dig deep into data here at Daytona and Talladega, but Jamie have been wildly inconsistent at both tracks. I think it next to impossible to make predictions about the restrictor plates. So I am just going to say that Jamie will have his chances to shine, but don't be shocked if he have mixed finishes in 2016.

Twitter - @CarlHeirman

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Greg Biffle

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Greg Biffle was once considered one of the primary drivers in the cup series, but that was prior to Matt Kenseth leaving RFR at end of 2012 season. Ever since Kenseth's depart from the organization, the performance haven't been there for RFR. Outside of  some decent races, I cannot really say that RFR have even been that competitive over the past three seasons. Biff is stage of his career where he is no longer that ''guy'' of the organization. I think age is becoming a factor and the fact that RFR doesn't have the horsepower advantage anymore, I believe his best days are behind him. I think the championship window has closed on Biffle and quite frankly the win window will probably close up too soon. If it haven't already. At age 47, you cannot really expect anything top 20s and maybe some top 15 finishes at most tracks.


I would consider the Plate tracks to be one of his better type of racetrack. I would say Daytona more specifically though. Last season at Daytona, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 16.5 average start, 19.0 average running position and 80.6 driver rating. I wouldn't say that Greg been great here over the past few seasons, but he have three top 20s in his past 4 starts. And 2 of those three races have ended inside the top 10. I would say that Talladega have been tougher on him than Daytona though. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 21.0 average finish, 24.5 average start, 21.0 average running position and 74.2 driver rating. Looking deeper into his Talladega finishes, he have finished 4 of his last 6 races in 20th or worse. Including finishes of 25th, 36th and 37th. On the plus side he did finish 2nd in 2014 though. I am not going to talk much about the plate tracks and bore you with all these stats. Because quite frankly there really isn't enough relevant data to go on. I view Daytona and Talladega as separate racetracks (even though both are restrictor plates), so we cannot combine data like we do at the flats, shorts and intermediate tracks to get a larger data pool. I think he will fine on the plates and probably still considered one of the better plate racer. However I don't think we will see him up front battling for the lead, like we use to see though. I expect at best teen finishes from him and that if he isn't involved in the big one either.

Larger Flats will likely be the type track that his best finishes comes at. Last season at Pocono and Indy, he compiled 12.0 average finish, 24.0 average start, 17.7 average running position and 78.9 driver rating. I would say that Pocono is his best track overall recently. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 8.5 average finish, 26.0 average start, 17.0 average running position and 83.3 driver rating. In those 4 races, he have finishes of 5th, 12th, 5th and 16th. Both of his top 5 finishes have came in the August races though. He been very strong in the last 6 August races at Pocono, dating back to the 2010 season. In the past 6 August races, he have compiled 7.3 average finish (Series-best), 15.0 average start, 12.7 average running position (7th-best) and 95.2 driver rating (6th-best). He also the only driver to post 5 top 10 finishes in that span and the only driver to finish all 6 races inside the top 15. Let look at more recent data at Pocono during the August races. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 5.0 average finish, 25.0 average start, 15.5 average running position and 87.3 driver rating. It may surprise people that his 15.5 ARP (Average running position) ranked 9th best over the past two August races. And his 87.3 driver rating ranks as 12th-best in the series. He been pretty solid at Indy as well. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 19.5 average start, 19.5 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. In last season's race, he finished 19th. In 2014, he finished 13th and in 2013 he finished 24th. Prior to that, I would have considered this one of Greg's best tracks. In 13 career starts, he have 13.6 average finish with 6 Top 8 finishes. None coming since 2012 though. I think the decreased in performance have really killed his fantasy value at Indy. I don't really see him as a contender at Indy and probably will only be good for a middle-teen finish most likely.

Shorter flats was a place that he struggled on in 2015. Last season on the shorter flats, he compiled 20.8 average finish, 19.5 average start, 21.3 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. He didn't really perform well on either racetrack. I  would say he little better at New Hampshire than Phoenix. At New Hampshire over the past 4 races, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 23.0 average start, 22.8 average running position and 68.9 driver rating. He finished 4th and 27th last season. His 4th place finish last fall by far his best performance during the past two seasons. In that event, he started 25th, finished 4th, held 17.0 average running position and 88.2 driver rating. His in-race performance was much better, but cannot really say he deserved that 88.2 driver rating. He just happen to be in the right place at the right time when the cautions flew. His average running position for the race tells me he wasn't good. Top 20 at best probably. At the same time, his numbers haven't been bad at New Hampshire overall. 3 of his past 4 races have ended inside the top 15. In those 3 races he have finished inside the top 15, he have compiled 11.7 average finish, 26.0 average start, 21.7 average running position, and 72.9 driver rating. In 2014 at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.5 average finish, 26.5 average start, 24.0 average running position and 65.3 driver rating. His 4th place finish last fall there, really helped his stats overall. But honestly he haven't been that good. At Phoenix, he been probably worse. Especially last season! Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 19.5 average finish, 18.3 average start, 19.0 average running position, and 72.3 driver rating. He was bad last season at Phoenix though. He compiled 26.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 67.4 driver rating. Last Spring at Phoenix, he wasn't good in either race really. He only completed 6% of that race inside the top 15 and finished 27th. For the event, he probably had a low-20 car I would say. Last fall at Phoenix, the race was cut short because of rain. Regardless, he wasn't that good anyhow. He finished 25th and probably had a low-20 type car for the entire event. He never once cracked the top 15 in the race and pretty much stayed in the lower 20s.

Road course should be a type racetrack that he will perform well at. Last season he was solid at both road courses. He was strong at Sonona, but finished 27th. I believe he was running well in the teens when he made contact with someone, if I remember right it was Danica Patrick. In last season's race, he started 22nd, finished 27th, held average running position 16.0 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. Over the past two races at Sonoma, he have compiled 18.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 15.0 average running position and 76.9 driver rating. Prior to last season's 27th place disappointing result, he have finished 11th or better in previous 7 of 9 Sonoma races. I expect results in the middle to high teens at Sonoma. Based on his performance over the past few seasons over Sonoma. At Watkin Glenn last season he finished 14th, but he had very high teen to low-20 type car for the event. He held 24.0 average running position and only completed 21% of the laps inside the top 15. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 26.5 average start, 19.0 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. He have finished 16th or better in every race at Watkin Glenn, dating back to the 2012 season. At Watkin Glenn, I expect him to finish somewhere between 13th-17th place probably. I think he will be solid on the road courses overall.

Intermediate racetracks was once considered a major strength for Biffle, however the recent downside of RFR have damaged Biff's performance. Even though he will have solid finishes from time to time. There a few tracks that I want to look deeper into. The first racetrack that I want to look at is Kansas. I think Kansas is one of his best tracks on the schedule and I believe this is a track where he still hold solid fantasy value at. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 12.8 average start, 17.0 average running position and 76.7 driver rating. When I look at his track record at Kansas, it hard to not be impressed since joining RFR. Dating back to 2003 (18 races ago), he have finished 17 of those 18 races inside the top 19. His lone non-top 19? All the way back in 2012, where he finished 27th (40 laps down). More recently, I am want to look at his numbers over the past two season (4 races). Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 10.0 average start, 17.0 average running position and 76.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finishes of 17th, 12th (2015) and 15th, 16 (2014). What I like most about Greg's recent numbers? He is consistent. I think that is one of the things I am looking for in Greg in terms of fantasy value. We cannot depend on the big time performances anymore, so we have to solely depend on consistency. At Kansas, I do believe he will have that and finish somewhere in the low to middle teens. The 2nd racetrack, I want to look at is Texas. I think Texas is one of the few venues that Greg still have solid fantasy value at. I don't expect him to be the driver he was 5 years ago here, but I do expect him to be a top 20 contender though. Over the past 6 races at Texas, he have compiled 11.8 average finish, 17.8 average start, 14.7 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. Those are some strong numbers but I think they are a bit misleading though. April 2013 (4th place finish) and April 2014 (6th place finish) really helped pad his stats. So lets look at last season (2015) data instead. Last season at Texas, he have compiled 18.0 average finish, 15.5 average start, 18.5 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. Obviously those aren't great numbers, but like I mentioned earlier. It really not about volume, its rather about quantity. I think he will be inconsistent on the intermediate racetracks in general in 2016. Personally I don't think he will hold a lot of value on the intermediate tracks because of his lack of speed and flashness to fantasy players. However when he does it will be at tracks that he have had recent success at. At this point, I think we can throw away any data prior to 2013. I think RFR is a much different organization right now. So the data over the past few season is much more relevant to us.

Short Tracks were nightmarish for the Biff last season. He was absolutely just horrible. In 2015 on the short tracks, he compiled 25.3 average finish, 28.3 average start, 25.8 average running position and 59.1 driver rating. In 6 races on short tracks last season, he only had one top 20 finish and only 3 top 25 finishes. His best finish on the short track last season was 19th at Martinsville and that not really saying too much honestly. When your best finish is 19th out of 6 races, it pretty and. But on the positive side, he did perform well at the short tracks in 2013 and 2014 though. At Martinsville he been pretty competitive prior to last season. Over the past 6 races, he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 22.8 average start, 18.3 average running position and 76.1 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 26th. In 2014, he had finishes of 18th and 13th. And in 2013, he had finishes of 9th and 9th once again. The fact that he finished 3 of the past 4 races (dating back to 2014) in the teens gives me a pretty good idea what he is capable of realistically. I would say it very likely that he finishes somewhere in the high teens to low 20s at Martinsville. At Bristol, he struggled last season pretty bad as well. In 2015 at Bristol, he compiled 27.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 24.5 average running position and 64.7 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 25th and 30th. In 2014, he had finishes of 10th and 12th though. Which is encouraging considering this use to be a great track for him. In 26 career races, he have managed 13.1 average finish with 13 Top 10s and 21 Top 20 finishes. I would say Richmond is his worst of the short tracks. Over the past 6 races at Richmond, he have compiled  22.3 average finish, 25.8 average start, 21.5 average running position and 67.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes 31st and 21st. Last season he struggled overall and wasn't ever a contender for a top 20. In 2015 at Richmond, he compiled 26.0 average finish, 35.0 average start, 28.5 average running position and 50.9 driver rating.  In previous 4 races prior to last season, he had finishes of 19th, 15th (2014) and 12th, 36th (2013). I expect a high-teen to low-20 finish from Biff at short tracks.

Let wrap this preview up, I think Biff will be a decent driver in 2016. However I think he will lack speed on most race weekends. And that will makes him a high-teen to low-20s on the average race weekend. I think he will be strongest on the larger flats and road courses. He will hold a little fantasy value on the shorter flats and plates, but not enough to be a consistent threat for fantasy players. I think he will perform decently on the shorter flats, but I am not expecting to be blown away. He could be a solid fantasy pick on intermediate tracks, but RFR's performance level in 2016 will really be the main factor in his potential. I think if RFR can improve in 2016, then Biff will be the most beneficial of the three drivers running full-time. But as of right now, I don't expect for that to occur though. I don't see him contending for nothing beyond top 20 finishes most weekends. Even though he still should have enough upside to grab some top 15 finishes.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Austin Dillon

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Austin Dillon will drive the 3 car for RCR in 2016 and will complete in 3rd full season at the cup level. I think Austin took a step in the wrong direction. That was the first thing that surprised me in 2015 about him. The second? How little criticism he received from the general public. His numbers in his first seasons with RCR have not been very impressive, if I say so myself. In 72 starts in the 3 car, he have only managed 9 top 10 finishes and 46 Top 20 finishes. Last season was a backslide for Dillon. He was more competitive, but the problem is he was more inconsistent. I think many would agree that his consistency during his rookie season was what gave him most of his fantasy value. I don't think Dillon is developed well of a driver to go with consistency and still hold much fantasy value. Last season, we saw him run well in portion of races. However he never was able to follow through and finish out races.

I expect Dillon to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks. He was strong last season at times on this type racetrack and RCR as whole have thrived on this type track as well. On this type racetrack in 2015, he compiled 21.3 average finish, 16.3 average start, 19.3 average running position and 76.3 driver rating. Digging deeper into the numbers, he had 4 top 15 finishes and 9 Top 20 finishes. I would say Michigan is Dillon's best racetrack. Dillon have said this is one of his favorite racetracks and he really have had some bad luck here that have prevent him from quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 9.5 average start, 13.8 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. In August 2014, he was pretty competitive and should have finished inside the top 15 in that race. But after multiple late pit stop for a flat tire, he had to settle for 30th place finish and 3 laps down. In the event he held 13.0 average running position. If he didn't have that flat tire, I would say he finished somewhere in the middle teens probably. In last season's July race at Michigan, he was strong and finished 20th. That race had a crazy ending, so I will let him slide. In that event, he started 7th, finished 20th, held 14.0 average running position, 80.5 driver rating and completed 75% of the laps inside the top 15. Then he had his breakout race at Michigan last August. He was bad fast all weekend long and qualified 4th. But he had to change engines and go to rear. That didn't stop Austin from flying through the field and being a top 5 threat. He finished 4th in that race and held 11.0 average running position with 112.5 driver rating. Despite coming from the rear, he spent an impressive 80% of the laps inside the top 15. He finished 11th and 14th in 2013 races. Where he drove the 33 car (powered by RCR) and subbed for Tony Stewart in the 14 as well. I would say Charlotte is his second best racetrack on the schedule outside of Michigan. Pure numbers, I would consider this his best track not named Daytona. Over his first 4 starts at Charlotte, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 19.3 average start position, 13.5 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. What makes this such a good track for Austin is that he have not had a bad race yet. His worst career finish? 16th. He finished 13th and 16th in his rookie season at this racetrack. Last season he was impressive at Charlotte. In 2 races at Charlotte in 2015, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 12.5 average start position, 10.0 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. In the second race, he was simply awesome. He had 8.0 average running position and 103.3 driver rating, while completing 93% of the laps inside the top 15. He will also perform well at other 1.5 milers like Texas and Kansas,etc. I expect Dillon to perform his very best on the intermediate racetracks and personally see him being a top 15 contender every time he on the track. I also believe we will see some top 10 finishes. At the same time, I do expect some poor finishes. Dillon is a developing driver, so he will likely take some of those strong runs and turn them into bad finishes.

Plates will be Dillon's next strongest track next to the intermediate racetracks. Dillon is a great plate racer and have proven himself so far in his young cup career. He been strong the past 2 seasons at Daytona and is probably considered his best racetrack with 3 top 10s in his past 4 starts. His lone non-top 14 finish came in his debut in 2013. He haven't been quite as good at Talladega though. In his debut in the 14 car in 2013, he was running top 5 on the final lap but got wrecked before coming back to the line. In 2014, he was very good and had finishes of 13th and 15th. Then last season he had finishes of 35th and 14th. So in 3 of his 4 races, he have finished inside the top 15. I think Dillon will have good shot as anyone, when it comes to finishing respectably. The one thing I like about Dillon? Since taking over the 3 car, he have not been involved in a wreck yet. In lone non-top 15 finish was because of an engine issue at Talladega.

I think he will also perform decently on the shorter flats (New Hampshire and Phoenix) and contend for least top 20 finishes every time he goes to the racetrack. I feel better about him at New Hampshire than Phoenix though. Over his first 4 starts at New Hampshire, he have compiled 13.8 average finish, 21.3 average start, 19.8 average running position and 72.8 driver rating. Last season he finished 22nd in the second race at New Hampshire. That was his career worst finish at the short flat track since debuting in the 3 car in 2014, where he finished 14th. He followed that 14th place finish with finishes of 11th and 8th. So in 4 career starts, he have 3 Top 14 finishes. Outside of Daytona, he cannot say that about any other racetrack. He holds more fantasy value here than most tracks, because he been consistent through two seasons. I am a big believer that consistency is the foundation for fantasy success. I think New Hampshire is a prime example of that. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.0 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. At Phoenix over his past 4 races, he have compiled 24.3 average finish, 19.0 average start, 21.5 average running position and 66.5 driver rating. He finished 38th and 24th in 2014. Last season? He compiled 17.5 average finish, 13.5 average start, 15.5 average running position and 80.4  driver rating. He had finishes of 15th and 18th. In 4 races on the flats (on both New Hampshire and Phoenix), he compiled 16.3 average finish, 16.8 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. I expect a lot of teen finishes from Dillon on the shorter flats. I would say middle to high teens mostly, but he will probably flirt with the top 12 during the races often though.

Larger Flats of Pocono and Indy will give him more trouble than the shorter flats in 2016, but he still should be strong at both larger flats though. Last season on the larger flats, he compiled 19.0 average finish, 11.0 average start, 18.0 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. At Pocono over the past 4 races, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 13th. He have never finished outside of the top 19 at Pocono which is a very encouraging sign for his future production at the racetrack. Long as he keeps doing what he is doing, then he should be a solid fantasy pick at Pocono. He haven't great, but impressive considering so many young drivers struggle here. At Indy, he will probably struggle more at than Pocono. He only have made three career starts at the 2.5 mile racetrack. At Indy over the past 2 seasons , he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 21.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. He have finishes of 25th, 10th (2014 race) and 26th. In 2014 it was by far his best race to date at Indy. In that event, he started 17th (best starting position), finished 10th (Best finishing position), 13.0 average running position (best average running position) and 89.7 driver rating (best driver rating). I think he will perform well on the larger flats, but I do believe there will be a chance for inconsistency though. Dillon is a young driver and he will make mistakes. I think it will more than likely come at Indy than Pocono. I haven't seen a poor race from him yet at Pocono and until I do, there is no reason to jump off the Dillon's bandwagon. At Indy, I really haven't seen enough of him yet. Hard to say what he has in terms of fantasy upside and potential. Heading into the season, I would say high teens to low 20s. Just depends on the development as a driver throughout the season leading up to Indy. At Pocono, I think he will be a low to mid teen driver with upside to be a top 10 finisher. However I wouldn't bank on the top 10 finish though. His range will probably be 12th-16th realistically in my opinion.


Short tracks will likely be one of the toughest for Dillon to perform well on. Bristol is by far his best racetrack. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.8 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. In 4 career starts, he have finished 3 of those 4 races inside the top 13. He should have finished inside the top 5 last April, but he had to pit for fuel. It didn't hurt him much since there were only 12 cars left on the lead lap though. last season at Bristol, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 14.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. He was awesome in the spring race, where he finished 10th and held 9.0 average running position. In the summer race, he wasn't quite as good. He finished 13th and held 16.0 average running position with 79.0 driver rating. Martinsville is his second best racetrack on among the short tracks. In 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 26.3 average start, 23.0 average running position and 63.5 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Those are bad numbers, Jeff!'' You know what my favorite part about stats? They are misleading. Like Dillon's Martinsville stats. He finished 41st in last season race. His other three races? He had finishes of 18th, 12th and 15th. In those three races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 27.7 average start, 21.0 average running position and 68.1 driver rating. At Richmond, he been probably at his worst among the three short tracks. He haven't had a good race yet and his best career finish at cup level is 20th. In 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.8 average start, 21.8 average running position and 62.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he have finished 27th. I am not kidding, he have finished 27th three times already in his career at Richmond. That isn't good at all and he will need to really pick up his production here in the next few seasons. On short tracks in 2015, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 18.7 average start, 19.7 average running position and 69.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a top 15 to top 20 on the short tracks, outside of Richmond I could see a lot of middle teen finishes probably. More specifically probably 14th-17th place range.

Road Courses will probably be the most unkind to him, personally I don't think Dillon is too talented on the road courses. He really haven't proven he is that good at Watkin Glenn or Sonoma. He been better at Sonoma than Watkin Glenn though. In 2 starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish, 31.5 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. He have finished 17th in both of his starts at Sonoma. At Watkins Glenn, he have also made two starts. He have compiled 26.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 24.0 average running position and 61.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 36th. In his debut at Watkin Glen in 2014, he finished a road course best-16th place. There not a whole lot of data to go on with Dillon regarding the road courses, so I am not going to really go into details. Especially since we only visit this type track twice per season. At this point, I think he is nothing more than a top 25 driver with top 20 upside because of his equipment.

Alright time to wrap this preview up! Austin Dillon is a inconsistent young driver who will often contend for quality finishes inside the top 15. I think he will have some really poor finishes and some really strong finishes as well. I think this is a huge season for Austin and the 3 season. I think he have to produce in 2016. I don't mean a win, I mean more top 5 and top 10 finishes. I think he is a few seasons away from winning his first race. First I think he needs to develop as a cup driver. In 2016, I expect him to be his best on the intermediate racetracks and Daytona. He will perform decently on the flats as well. I expect his worst days to be on the road courses probably. I think that is a type track, he is unproven at and lacks experience too.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kasey Kahne

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Kasey Kahne have not performed very well in his last two seasons in the cup series with HMS and the fact that he have not gotten more criticism amazes me! When looking at his numbers, I am not very impressed with a driver of his level of equipment. He not very talent behind the wheel, so it prevents him from much fantasy upside when his car isn't performing up to his standards. I consider him the most inconsistent driver in the series and I mean that. If you use Kasey enough in fantasy racing, then you will eventually burn you!

Intermediate racetracks will be a major strength for Kahne in 2016. This is a type racetrack where HMS will have an horsepower advantage over majority of the field, so by default Kahne automatically have advantage over most of the guys he'll be racing. I would expect him to run in the low to mid teens a lot and sometimes challenge for top 10 finishes. Anything beyond that is probably asking for above average weekend.  His best intermediate racetracks are probably Atlanta, Las Vegas and Charlotte. Charlotte is definitely one of his stronger tracks, but feel like over the past few seasons he have fallen off. In 24 career starts, he have managed 12.1 average finish with 4 wins and 13 Top 10 finishes. The last few seasons been tougher on him. Over the past two seasons, he have only one top 10 finish. On the plus side, he also have 3 top 15 finishes in that span. So not like he been really terrible or anything, just not up to what we expect out of him at Charlotte. Atlanta have been a decent track for him from a career point of view. With 19 Career starts, he have managed 3 wins, 7 top 5s and 10 Top 20s finishes. The first thing that jumps out about those stats? He's either top 5 or bust at Atlanta. Only 3-non Top 5 finishes when he finishes inside the top 20. Last spring, he was very strong and was top 5 good. Until he was penalized with less than 40 laps to go. He never recovered and finished 14th. In his previous three starts, he have finishes of 1st, 36rd and 23rd. Hard to figure this guy out! The last track I want to look at is Las Vegas among the intermediate racetracks. Most recently I would consider this his best racetrack on the schedule. Last season he was strong and probably had the 2nd best car in the race. Until he and Edwards made heavy contact with each other on a restart. He didn't have to go to the garage, but his car never performed like before and finished 17th. Prior to that 17th place finish, he had finishes of 8th, 2nd and 19th. In half of his starts (12), he have finished inside the top 10. He also have finished 10 of 12 races inside the top 20.

Short flat racetracks will be a decent spot for Kasey. At both short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire, he have ran fairly well. However I wouldn't say it been great. It been Kasey Kahne-like though. Over the past two seasons at Phoenix, he have finishes of 9th, 19th, 23rd and 11th. In 3 of those races, he have supported above 14.0 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. So it is not like he have lucked into those finishes at New Hampshire. He just been inconsistent with his finishes since finishing 1st and 5th in his debut in 2012 with HMS. He haven't been quite as good at Phoenix in my opinion. Over the past two seasons, he have managed finishes of 26th, 4th, 21st and 11th. Since joining HMS in 2012, he have struggled at Phoenix. In 8 races, he have only 3 Top 10 finishes and they all have ended inside the top 4. In 4 of the other 5 races, he have finished 19th or worse. Once again his inconsistent kills his fantasy value. At short flat racetracks, I think he will be nothing more than a mid to high teen driver. If he is lucky, then he will contend for a low teen finish.

In large flat racetracks, he will be inconsistent at. However he will have the horsepower advantage over most of the drivers he will be racing. He been stronger at Indy than Pocono. Over the past two seasons, he have finishes of 24th and 6th. Last season he struggled and finished 24th. He was never really any good. Prior to that 24th place finish, he had finishes of 6th, 3rd and 12th since joining HMS in 2012. He probably should have won it in 2014, but finished 6th to eventual winner Jeff Gordon. He led almost half of that race (70) and was class of the field for good portion of the race. I think he was very motivated to run strong that weekend because he knew the chase was looming. It was his best performance since 2005 when he finished 2nd. In the 2014 race, he managed 4.0 average running position and 132.7 driver rating. He also performed very strongly in the 2013 race as well and finished 3rd. At Pocono, he have been much worse at than Indy. There was a trend for Kahne at Pocono, before last season. In his first three season with HMS (from 2012 to 2014), he have finished inside the top 10 in every 2nd Pocono race. Including finishes of 1st and 2nd. And in the 1st Pocono races, he have finished 29th or worse in every Pocono race. In 2015? Roles were reversed. He finished 13th in the first Pocono race and 43rd in the 2nd Pocono race. So trying to figure out Kahne at Pocono been next to impossible in my opinion.

Short Tracks will be somewhat of a strong suit, but I still expect him to post inconsistent results. I would say Richmond been his best racetrack since joining HMS back in 2012. Over the past two seasons, he have finishes of 18th, 6th, 17th and 14th. In 8 career races with HMS, he have never finished worse than 21st and that came in 2013. In 5 of those other 7 races, he have finished 12th-18th. His other two finishes have resulted in 5th and 6th. In the past 3 of 4 spring Richmond races, Kahne have posted an driver rating above 95.0. In the fall races? Only once have he surpassed that mark. In fact, he only once topped an driver rating of 80.0. At Bristol, he have been strong recently at since joining HMS. From August 2012 to March 2014, he had finishes of 9th, 1st, 2nd and 8th. His previous three races since? 35th, 37th and 16th. So much like most of his track stats and performances, his Bristol record have nose-dived over the past few seasons. I think Bristol will be a good track for Kahne where he will perform well, but he is questionable on his finishes though. He will probably have his best chance for success at Martinsville, even though I think he will also have potential for poor finishes. Over the past 2 seasons, he have had finishes of  9th, 11th, 40th and 22nd. Over the past 7 races dating back to August 2012, he have finished 11th or better in 4 races and have finished 22nd or worse in his other three races. When comparing the three tracks, he probably have found the most successful at Martinsville. However at the same time, he also have found the most trouble at Martinsville.

Road courses is where Kahne will be very underrated at. He have the proper equipment and skillset to be successful on the courses in my opinion. His inconsistency in general will scare people off, but he have been very strong the past two seasons on both Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. At Sonoma, he been impressive since the 2009 season. Since winning in 2009, he have finished 20th or better in every race. Including 5 Top 10 finishes and 3 straight top 8 finishes headed into the 2016 season. He haven't been quite as good at Watkins Glenn, but still very respectably. Over the past three seasons, he have finishes of 42nd, 12th and 34th. Prior to the past three seasons, he finished 13th-17th from 2008 to 2012 in all but one race. So not like he have performed poorly at Watkins Glenn, it has more to do with bad luck as you can see by his finishes of 42nd and 34th. He finished 8 laps down in 2013 and 12 laps down in last season's race. In 2016, I think this will be a strong spot for Kasey Kahne and should be least top 15 threat in both races. Given everything goes according to plan for Kahne.

Restrictor Plate tracks will be where Kahne have the most problems at in 2016 in my opinion. I feel this is a type racetrack that have given Kahne fits over the past few years, and always seems to find the big one or should I say the big one always find him? Last season he had finishes of 32nd, 9th, 19th and 34th. His numbers are inconsistent and that how he looked ever since joining HMS. 1 strong finish with 3 poor finishes on this type track. That's usually a typical season for Kahne and I think that trend will continue into 2016.

*All stats from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @CarlHeirman

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: AJ Dinger

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AJ Dinger will enter his 3rd full season behind the wheel of the 47 car for JTG Daugherty Racing. In the first two seasons behind the wheel of the 47 car, he have shown potential to be a very useful fantasy option from time to time. However his inconsistency and lackluster equipment holds him back most weekends. I expect him to be at his best on the road courses and short tracks. He also will have some fantasy value on the shorter flats as well. He proven he can run well on several racetracks on the Cup schedule, and personally I think he is far underrated in general outside of the road courses.

The Road courses will be where he holds his primary fantasy value. I think he will be at his best at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. However I also believe he will be held back with his equipment. We saw last season that, he could be a race winning contender at both road courses. But mechanical issues prevented him from getting a respectable finish both times. In two races in 2015 on the road courses, he compiled 30.5 average finish, 1.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. He also led about 22 laps in total. He wasn't as good at Sonoma as I was expecting. He started 1st, finished 37th, had 20.0 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. At Watkins Glenn in 2015, he was strong once again like he was at Sonoma. However I would say this was a strange race for him. He started on the pole and led 19 laps early on. Then just after a pit stop, he lost power and faded down the leaderboard. Lucky for him a caution came out right after. He pitted and team fixed his issue. He only lost two laps and eventually got back on the lead lap. However later in the event with only handful of laps left, he ran out of gas. Long story short, he finished 24th near end of the lead lap. In that race, he started 1st, finished 24th, held 13.0 driver rating and 96.5 driver rating. Overall in the past two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 2.5 average starting position, 12.8 average running position and 107.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a legit race winning contender, however I am willing to bet that he doesn't get the finishes he deserves in 2016. Simply because his equipment will let him down or least that what recent history says.

Shorter Flats will be where Dinger will be a legit sleeper at, he have ran well at both venues since joining JTG. These are both tracks that he been kind to him, so no reason to believe he won't continue to delivered solid results in 2016. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire (his better shorter flat), he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 24.8 average starting position, 20.5 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finishes of 23rd, 13th, 13th and 18th. One trend I do notice about AJ Dinger at New Hampshire is he have a strong history of finishing out the lead lap dating back to the 2010 season (9 races ago). 7 of the past 9 races at New Hampshire have ended on the lead lap for AJ Dinger. His average finish in those 7 races? 14.3 average finish. In fact, only 2 times in those 7 races, he failed to finish worse than 13th. He haven't been quite as good at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 23.5 average starting position, 22.5 average running position and 68.5 driver rating.  He have finishes of 24th, 17th, 16th and 26th over that 4 race span in the past two seasons. When I am looking at his numbers in general at Phoenix, they are real strong numbers overall. In 13 career races, he have finished 18th or better in 10 of those 13 races. In 4 races in 2015 on the shorter flats, he have compiled 19.3 average finish, 24.3 average starting position, 21.8 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. In 2015, he had finishes of 24th, 17th (Phoenix) and 23rd, 13th (New Hampshire). In 2016, I think he will be borderline top 20 on most times we head to the shorter flats. Realistically I would say he is a top 25 driver with top 20 upside on the shorter flats. For me to select him to my fantasy team at either venue, I would have to see something out of him during the weekend. I think that will more likely come at New Hampshire than Phoenix. He have shown more security at New Hampshire than Phoenix since joining the 47 team in my opinion.

Short tracks is the next type racetrack that I want to look at. The short tracks are Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol. His best of three tracks would be Martinsville. AJ Dinger is legit at Martinsville and can contend for quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he compiled 18.5 average finish, 10.8 average starting position, 17.3 average running position and 84.3 driver rating. Those are some impressive numbers, considering he finished 43rd last spring. Minus last season's 43rd place finish , he have compiled 10.3 average finish, 11.0 average starting position, 13.0 average running position, and 89.8 driver rating. His lowest finish in that 3-race span? 11th! In last spring race, he finished 43rd (his lone non-top 11 finish since joining the 47 team) and was strong in that race. He was running around 9th when the oil leak occurred and finished many laps down. In his other three starts, he had finishes of 11th, 9th and 11th. Going deeper in Dinger's stats, he have finished 14th or better in 7 of his past 9 races at Martinsville. He also been good at Richmond. Last season, he had finishes of 24th and 13th. It wasn't a great season by any means, but recent trends shows that he been a productive fantasy option at Richmond overall. Over the past 5 races (all with JTG), he have compiled 16.2 average finish, 19.2 average starting position, 18.4 average running position, 74.4 driver rating. If we go back a race further to when he was with the 51 team, he finished 14th. In those 6 races, he have finished 16th or better in 4 of those 6 races. An developing trend at Richmond for Dinger? He have finished 17th or better in every spring race dating back to all the way in 2010, he was still with RPM. At Bristol, he is a deep sleeper in my opinion! Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 67.0 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Okay you are nuts, Jeff!'' Yeah okay I may be nuts, but that besides the fact. In March 2013, he finished 13th and had 19.0 average running position and 75.1 driver rating. In his very next race in March 2014, he finished 25th. Okay not great. He followed that up with an 14th place finish in August 2014. In that event he finished 14th, started 22nd, held 14.0 average running position and 83.6 driver rating. Last spring race in April, he finished 34th. Don't be fooled though. He got involved in a wreck with Tony Stewart and finished in the garage. Prior to that, he was competitively inside the top 15 for majority of that event. In that event, he spent 68% of that event inside the top 15 and held 15.0 average running position. This past summer, he was not very good for most of the event. He hit the wall a few times and was running in the mid-30s after 150 laps. In 2nd half of the race, his crew fixed him up and got him running pretty decent. In the end, he finished 26th.

Intermediate racetracks will be a definite weak spot for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will have some quality finishes in 2016, but overall I expect him to have a lot of lackluster results. Last season he was not overly strong on this type racetrack. In 2015 on the intermediate tracks, he compiled 22.4 average finish, 24.2 average starting position, 23.9 average running position and 63.2 driver rating. I would say Atlanta is his best racetrack. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 23.5 average finish, 17.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 69.0 driver rating. Those aren't great stats, but it only a two-race sample. He finished 40th in 2014 and finished 6th in last's season race. In 10 career races at Atlanta, he have managed 9 Top 20 finishes. Since taking over the 47 car, he have knocked off 2 top 14 finishes in the past 3 seasons. In those 2 races, he have compiled 10.5 average finish, 12.0 average starting position, 14.0 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. His second best intermediate racetrack is probably Cali. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish, 18.0 average starting position, 23.5 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. He finished 34th last season, but have a pretty good track record here from a career point of view. In 11 career starts, he have finished 19th or better in 7 of those 11 races. Prior to finishing 34th last season, he had 5 straight top 19 finishes dating back to 2009 season. He finished 8th in his debut at Cali with JTG in 2014 and 16th in 2013 with Phoenix Racing (now known as HScottMotorsports). He also will have a decent opportunities at Las Vegas, Texas and Charlotte. I think he will be very questionable fantasy option on the intermediate racetracks and won't hold a lot of value. I think he will score some top 20 finishes, but not enough to be a consistent threat. Overall I expect him to be nothing more than top 30 to top 25 driver with some upside on certain weekends. I am not really sure which tracks that will occur on. Honestly I would just avoid him on the intermediate racetracks for the time being.

Larger Flats will be a big problem for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will struggle here more than the intermediate racetracks and probably just as much on the Restrictor plates. In 2015 on the larger flats, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 24.7 average starting position, 23.3 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. At Pocono last season, he had finishes of 38th and 7th. Over the past 4 seasons at Pocono, he have compiled 25.0 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 65.4 driver rating. In that span of  4 races, he have received two DNFs. Include his latest coming last summer after a run-in with RCR's Ryan Newman. Prior to that, he was running pretty respectably I would say, if I remembered correctly. I want say middle-teens (maybe little worse than that) when he was battling Newman and they made heavy contract. Of course Ryan Newman afterwards made threats that he never followed through with (shocker). In the second race, he finished 7th in that race. When looking at his Pocono record, I am very worried about him. Over his past 7 starts at Pocono, he have finished off lead lap and have finished 33rd or worse in all 5 of those races. Pocono been one of AJ's worst racetracks from a career point of view. Only three tracks does he have worse than 24.5 average finish that he supports at Pocono in 16 career starts. I think he will perfom better at Indy than Pocono. I don't think it will much better, but still he should be a decent high teen to low 20 driver at Indy in 2016. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have compiled 20.5 average finish, 31.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He finished 23rd and 18th in those two races. His 23rd place finish last season was his career worst in 7 starts dating back to 2008. His best effort came in 2008 in his debut at the track with RPM. Where he finished 10th. In his other 5 starts at the track? He have finished 18th-22nd. His best finish in those 5 races came in 2014 in his debut at this track for JTG in the 47 car. I expect most of his results on the larger flats to come in the low to mid 20s. He might have a outside shot at a high teen finish, but you are probably pushing your luck.

The Plates will be the toughest on AJ Dinger probably. Not saying he won't have some good finishes, but I don't think it likely for him to become a threat on the plates. Last season on the plates, he compiled 23.5 average finish, 27.3 average starting position, 29.0 average running position and 52.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he had 2 top 20 finishes which probably was a above average season for him. He actually had three top 21 finishes, which probably better than most can say. He finished three of four races fairly respectably. Now finishes of 17th, 20th and 21st isn't nothing to get super excited about, but for the season I would take those type of finishes all day long. At Plates, I don't see him being anything special. I think he will either finish in the high to low 20s or wreck out most races. He may sneak out a few finishes though, but that pretty much a given at Daytona and Talladega though.

Alright time to wrap up this preview, I don't think AJ Dinger will be a popular driver in 2016 and personally I believe that what will give him additional fantasy value at certain tracks. I think he will contend for top 5 finishes at road courses, however I don't know if he can finish them out though. He will also be strong on the short tracks and shorter flats as well. He should be a very useful fantasy option at Martinsville, Richmond and New Hampshire. All three tracks are ranked among his best in his two seasons with JTG. I think the intermediate tracks, plates and larger flats will give AJ the most trouble. I expect him to be inconsistent all season long and his equipment will definitely hold him back from becoming a primary fantasy option at his top tracks. His inconsistency will scare most fantasy players away, which should fall in the hands of the risk takers. As I said in the profile in December, I think he will be a very risky fantasy option almost anytime we select him. For him to hold any real fantasy value (outside of the road courses), I think he least needs top 15 to top 20 speed in practice. I believe that will most likely occur on the shorter tracks in length.

Twitter - @JeffNathans