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AJ Dinger will enter his 3rd full season behind the wheel of the 47 car for JTG Daugherty Racing. In the first two seasons behind the wheel of the 47 car, he have shown potential to be a very useful fantasy option from time to time. However his inconsistency and lackluster equipment holds him back most weekends. I expect him to be at his best on the road courses and short tracks. He also will have some fantasy value on the shorter flats as well. He proven he can run well on several racetracks on the Cup schedule, and personally I think he is far underrated in general outside of the road courses.
The Road courses will be where he holds his primary fantasy value. I think he will be at his best at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. However I also believe he will be held back with his equipment. We saw last season that, he could be a race winning contender at both road courses. But mechanical issues prevented him from getting a respectable finish both times. In two races in 2015 on the road courses, he compiled 30.5 average finish, 1.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. He also led about 22 laps in total. He wasn't as good at Sonoma as I was expecting. He started 1st, finished 37th, had 20.0 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. At Watkins Glenn in 2015, he was strong once again like he was at Sonoma. However I would say this was a strange race for him. He started on the pole and led 19 laps early on. Then just after a pit stop, he lost power and faded down the leaderboard. Lucky for him a caution came out right after. He pitted and team fixed his issue. He only lost two laps and eventually got back on the lead lap. However later in the event with only handful of laps left, he ran out of gas. Long story short, he finished 24th near end of the lead lap. In that race, he started 1st, finished 24th, held 13.0 driver rating and 96.5 driver rating. Overall in the past two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 2.5 average starting position, 12.8 average running position and 107.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a legit race winning contender, however I am willing to bet that he doesn't get the finishes he deserves in 2016. Simply because his equipment will let him down or least that what recent history says.
Shorter Flats will be where Dinger will be a legit sleeper at, he have ran well at both venues since joining JTG. These are both tracks that he been kind to him, so no reason to believe he won't continue to delivered solid results in 2016. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire (his better shorter flat), he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 24.8 average starting position, 20.5 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finishes of 23rd, 13th, 13th and 18th. One trend I do notice about AJ Dinger at New Hampshire is he have a strong history of finishing out the lead lap dating back to the 2010 season (9 races ago). 7 of the past 9 races at New Hampshire have ended on the lead lap for AJ Dinger. His average finish in those 7 races? 14.3 average finish. In fact, only 2 times in those 7 races, he failed to finish worse than 13th. He haven't been quite as good at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 23.5 average starting position, 22.5 average running position and 68.5 driver rating. He have finishes of 24th, 17th, 16th and 26th over that 4 race span in the past two seasons. When I am looking at his numbers in general at Phoenix, they are real strong numbers overall. In 13 career races, he have finished 18th or better in 10 of those 13 races. In 4 races in 2015 on the shorter flats, he have compiled 19.3 average finish, 24.3 average starting position, 21.8 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. In 2015, he had finishes of 24th, 17th (Phoenix) and 23rd, 13th (New Hampshire). In 2016, I think he will be borderline top 20 on most times we head to the shorter flats. Realistically I would say he is a top 25 driver with top 20 upside on the shorter flats. For me to select him to my fantasy team at either venue, I would have to see something out of him during the weekend. I think that will more likely come at New Hampshire than Phoenix. He have shown more security at New Hampshire than Phoenix since joining the 47 team in my opinion.
Short tracks is the next type racetrack that I want to look at. The short tracks are Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol. His best of three tracks would be Martinsville. AJ Dinger is legit at Martinsville and can contend for quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he compiled 18.5 average finish, 10.8 average starting position, 17.3 average running position and 84.3 driver rating. Those are some impressive numbers, considering he finished 43rd last spring. Minus last season's 43rd place finish , he have compiled 10.3 average finish, 11.0 average starting position, 13.0 average running position, and 89.8 driver rating. His lowest finish in that 3-race span? 11th! In last spring race, he finished 43rd (his lone non-top 11 finish since joining the 47 team) and was strong in that race. He was running around 9th when the oil leak occurred and finished many laps down. In his other three starts, he had finishes of 11th, 9th and 11th. Going deeper in Dinger's stats, he have finished 14th or better in 7 of his past 9 races at Martinsville. He also been good at Richmond. Last season, he had finishes of 24th and 13th. It wasn't a great season by any means, but recent trends shows that he been a productive fantasy option at Richmond overall. Over the past 5 races (all with JTG), he have compiled 16.2 average finish, 19.2 average starting position, 18.4 average running position, 74.4 driver rating. If we go back a race further to when he was with the 51 team, he finished 14th. In those 6 races, he have finished 16th or better in 4 of those 6 races. An developing trend at Richmond for Dinger? He have finished 17th or better in every spring race dating back to all the way in 2010, he was still with RPM. At Bristol, he is a deep sleeper in my opinion! Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 67.0 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Okay you are nuts, Jeff!'' Yeah okay I may be nuts, but that besides the fact. In March 2013, he finished 13th and had 19.0 average running position and 75.1 driver rating. In his very next race in March 2014, he finished 25th. Okay not great. He followed that up with an 14th place finish in August 2014. In that event he finished 14th, started 22nd, held 14.0 average running position and 83.6 driver rating. Last spring race in April, he finished 34th. Don't be fooled though. He got involved in a wreck with Tony Stewart and finished in the garage. Prior to that, he was competitively inside the top 15 for majority of that event. In that event, he spent 68% of that event inside the top 15 and held 15.0 average running position. This past summer, he was not very good for most of the event. He hit the wall a few times and was running in the mid-30s after 150 laps. In 2nd half of the race, his crew fixed him up and got him running pretty decent. In the end, he finished 26th.
Intermediate racetracks will be a definite weak spot for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will have some quality finishes in 2016, but overall I expect him to have a lot of lackluster results. Last season he was not overly strong on this type racetrack. In 2015 on the intermediate tracks, he compiled 22.4 average finish, 24.2 average starting position, 23.9 average running position and 63.2 driver rating. I would say Atlanta is his best racetrack. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 23.5 average finish, 17.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 69.0 driver rating. Those aren't great stats, but it only a two-race sample. He finished 40th in 2014 and finished 6th in last's season race. In 10 career races at Atlanta, he have managed 9 Top 20 finishes. Since taking over the 47 car, he have knocked off 2 top 14 finishes in the past 3 seasons. In those 2 races, he have compiled 10.5 average finish, 12.0 average starting position, 14.0 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. His second best intermediate racetrack is probably Cali. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish, 18.0 average starting position, 23.5 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. He finished 34th last season, but have a pretty good track record here from a career point of view. In 11 career starts, he have finished 19th or better in 7 of those 11 races. Prior to finishing 34th last season, he had 5 straight top 19 finishes dating back to 2009 season. He finished 8th in his debut at Cali with JTG in 2014 and 16th in 2013 with Phoenix Racing (now known as HScottMotorsports). He also will have a decent opportunities at Las Vegas, Texas and Charlotte. I think he will be very questionable fantasy option on the intermediate racetracks and won't hold a lot of value. I think he will score some top 20 finishes, but not enough to be a consistent threat. Overall I expect him to be nothing more than top 30 to top 25 driver with some upside on certain weekends. I am not really sure which tracks that will occur on. Honestly I would just avoid him on the intermediate racetracks for the time being.
Larger Flats will be a big problem for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will struggle here more than the intermediate racetracks and probably just as much on the Restrictor plates. In 2015 on the larger flats, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 24.7 average starting position, 23.3 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. At Pocono last season, he had finishes of 38th and 7th. Over the past 4 seasons at Pocono, he have compiled 25.0 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 65.4 driver rating. In that span of 4 races, he have received two DNFs. Include his latest coming last summer after a run-in with RCR's Ryan Newman. Prior to that, he was running pretty respectably I would say, if I remembered correctly. I want say middle-teens (maybe little worse than that) when he was battling Newman and they made heavy contract. Of course Ryan Newman afterwards made threats that he never followed through with (shocker). In the second race, he finished 7th in that race. When looking at his Pocono record, I am very worried about him. Over his past 7 starts at Pocono, he have finished off lead lap and have finished 33rd or worse in all 5 of those races. Pocono been one of AJ's worst racetracks from a career point of view. Only three tracks does he have worse than 24.5 average finish that he supports at Pocono in 16 career starts. I think he will perfom better at Indy than Pocono. I don't think it will much better, but still he should be a decent high teen to low 20 driver at Indy in 2016. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have compiled 20.5 average finish, 31.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He finished 23rd and 18th in those two races. His 23rd place finish last season was his career worst in 7 starts dating back to 2008. His best effort came in 2008 in his debut at the track with RPM. Where he finished 10th. In his other 5 starts at the track? He have finished 18th-22nd. His best finish in those 5 races came in 2014 in his debut at this track for JTG in the 47 car. I expect most of his results on the larger flats to come in the low to mid 20s. He might have a outside shot at a high teen finish, but you are probably pushing your luck.
The Plates will be the toughest on AJ Dinger probably. Not saying he won't have some good finishes, but I don't think it likely for him to become a threat on the plates. Last season on the plates, he compiled 23.5 average finish, 27.3 average starting position, 29.0 average running position and 52.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he had 2 top 20 finishes which probably was a above average season for him. He actually had three top 21 finishes, which probably better than most can say. He finished three of four races fairly respectably. Now finishes of 17th, 20th and 21st isn't nothing to get super excited about, but for the season I would take those type of finishes all day long. At Plates, I don't see him being anything special. I think he will either finish in the high to low 20s or wreck out most races. He may sneak out a few finishes though, but that pretty much a given at Daytona and Talladega though.
Alright time to wrap up this preview, I don't think AJ Dinger will be a popular driver in 2016 and personally I believe that what will give him additional fantasy value at certain tracks. I think he will contend for top 5 finishes at road courses, however I don't know if he can finish them out though. He will also be strong on the short tracks and shorter flats as well. He should be a very useful fantasy option at Martinsville, Richmond and New Hampshire. All three tracks are ranked among his best in his two seasons with JTG. I think the intermediate tracks, plates and larger flats will give AJ the most trouble. I expect him to be inconsistent all season long and his equipment will definitely hold him back from becoming a primary fantasy option at his top tracks. His inconsistency will scare most fantasy players away, which should fall in the hands of the risk takers. As I said in the profile in December, I think he will be a very risky fantasy option almost anytime we select him. For him to hold any real fantasy value (outside of the road courses), I think he least needs top 15 to top 20 speed in practice. I believe that will most likely occur on the shorter tracks in length.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
AJ Dinger will enter his 3rd full season behind the wheel of the 47 car for JTG Daugherty Racing. In the first two seasons behind the wheel of the 47 car, he have shown potential to be a very useful fantasy option from time to time. However his inconsistency and lackluster equipment holds him back most weekends. I expect him to be at his best on the road courses and short tracks. He also will have some fantasy value on the shorter flats as well. He proven he can run well on several racetracks on the Cup schedule, and personally I think he is far underrated in general outside of the road courses.
The Road courses will be where he holds his primary fantasy value. I think he will be at his best at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. However I also believe he will be held back with his equipment. We saw last season that, he could be a race winning contender at both road courses. But mechanical issues prevented him from getting a respectable finish both times. In two races in 2015 on the road courses, he compiled 30.5 average finish, 1.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. He also led about 22 laps in total. He wasn't as good at Sonoma as I was expecting. He started 1st, finished 37th, had 20.0 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. At Watkins Glenn in 2015, he was strong once again like he was at Sonoma. However I would say this was a strange race for him. He started on the pole and led 19 laps early on. Then just after a pit stop, he lost power and faded down the leaderboard. Lucky for him a caution came out right after. He pitted and team fixed his issue. He only lost two laps and eventually got back on the lead lap. However later in the event with only handful of laps left, he ran out of gas. Long story short, he finished 24th near end of the lead lap. In that race, he started 1st, finished 24th, held 13.0 driver rating and 96.5 driver rating. Overall in the past two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 2.5 average starting position, 12.8 average running position and 107.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a legit race winning contender, however I am willing to bet that he doesn't get the finishes he deserves in 2016. Simply because his equipment will let him down or least that what recent history says.
Shorter Flats will be where Dinger will be a legit sleeper at, he have ran well at both venues since joining JTG. These are both tracks that he been kind to him, so no reason to believe he won't continue to delivered solid results in 2016. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire (his better shorter flat), he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 24.8 average starting position, 20.5 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finishes of 23rd, 13th, 13th and 18th. One trend I do notice about AJ Dinger at New Hampshire is he have a strong history of finishing out the lead lap dating back to the 2010 season (9 races ago). 7 of the past 9 races at New Hampshire have ended on the lead lap for AJ Dinger. His average finish in those 7 races? 14.3 average finish. In fact, only 2 times in those 7 races, he failed to finish worse than 13th. He haven't been quite as good at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 23.5 average starting position, 22.5 average running position and 68.5 driver rating. He have finishes of 24th, 17th, 16th and 26th over that 4 race span in the past two seasons. When I am looking at his numbers in general at Phoenix, they are real strong numbers overall. In 13 career races, he have finished 18th or better in 10 of those 13 races. In 4 races in 2015 on the shorter flats, he have compiled 19.3 average finish, 24.3 average starting position, 21.8 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. In 2015, he had finishes of 24th, 17th (Phoenix) and 23rd, 13th (New Hampshire). In 2016, I think he will be borderline top 20 on most times we head to the shorter flats. Realistically I would say he is a top 25 driver with top 20 upside on the shorter flats. For me to select him to my fantasy team at either venue, I would have to see something out of him during the weekend. I think that will more likely come at New Hampshire than Phoenix. He have shown more security at New Hampshire than Phoenix since joining the 47 team in my opinion.
Short tracks is the next type racetrack that I want to look at. The short tracks are Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol. His best of three tracks would be Martinsville. AJ Dinger is legit at Martinsville and can contend for quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he compiled 18.5 average finish, 10.8 average starting position, 17.3 average running position and 84.3 driver rating. Those are some impressive numbers, considering he finished 43rd last spring. Minus last season's 43rd place finish , he have compiled 10.3 average finish, 11.0 average starting position, 13.0 average running position, and 89.8 driver rating. His lowest finish in that 3-race span? 11th! In last spring race, he finished 43rd (his lone non-top 11 finish since joining the 47 team) and was strong in that race. He was running around 9th when the oil leak occurred and finished many laps down. In his other three starts, he had finishes of 11th, 9th and 11th. Going deeper in Dinger's stats, he have finished 14th or better in 7 of his past 9 races at Martinsville. He also been good at Richmond. Last season, he had finishes of 24th and 13th. It wasn't a great season by any means, but recent trends shows that he been a productive fantasy option at Richmond overall. Over the past 5 races (all with JTG), he have compiled 16.2 average finish, 19.2 average starting position, 18.4 average running position, 74.4 driver rating. If we go back a race further to when he was with the 51 team, he finished 14th. In those 6 races, he have finished 16th or better in 4 of those 6 races. An developing trend at Richmond for Dinger? He have finished 17th or better in every spring race dating back to all the way in 2010, he was still with RPM. At Bristol, he is a deep sleeper in my opinion! Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 24.8 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 67.0 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Okay you are nuts, Jeff!'' Yeah okay I may be nuts, but that besides the fact. In March 2013, he finished 13th and had 19.0 average running position and 75.1 driver rating. In his very next race in March 2014, he finished 25th. Okay not great. He followed that up with an 14th place finish in August 2014. In that event he finished 14th, started 22nd, held 14.0 average running position and 83.6 driver rating. Last spring race in April, he finished 34th. Don't be fooled though. He got involved in a wreck with Tony Stewart and finished in the garage. Prior to that, he was competitively inside the top 15 for majority of that event. In that event, he spent 68% of that event inside the top 15 and held 15.0 average running position. This past summer, he was not very good for most of the event. He hit the wall a few times and was running in the mid-30s after 150 laps. In 2nd half of the race, his crew fixed him up and got him running pretty decent. In the end, he finished 26th.
Intermediate racetracks will be a definite weak spot for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will have some quality finishes in 2016, but overall I expect him to have a lot of lackluster results. Last season he was not overly strong on this type racetrack. In 2015 on the intermediate tracks, he compiled 22.4 average finish, 24.2 average starting position, 23.9 average running position and 63.2 driver rating. I would say Atlanta is his best racetrack. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 23.5 average finish, 17.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 69.0 driver rating. Those aren't great stats, but it only a two-race sample. He finished 40th in 2014 and finished 6th in last's season race. In 10 career races at Atlanta, he have managed 9 Top 20 finishes. Since taking over the 47 car, he have knocked off 2 top 14 finishes in the past 3 seasons. In those 2 races, he have compiled 10.5 average finish, 12.0 average starting position, 14.0 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. His second best intermediate racetrack is probably Cali. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish, 18.0 average starting position, 23.5 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. He finished 34th last season, but have a pretty good track record here from a career point of view. In 11 career starts, he have finished 19th or better in 7 of those 11 races. Prior to finishing 34th last season, he had 5 straight top 19 finishes dating back to 2009 season. He finished 8th in his debut at Cali with JTG in 2014 and 16th in 2013 with Phoenix Racing (now known as HScottMotorsports). He also will have a decent opportunities at Las Vegas, Texas and Charlotte. I think he will be very questionable fantasy option on the intermediate racetracks and won't hold a lot of value. I think he will score some top 20 finishes, but not enough to be a consistent threat. Overall I expect him to be nothing more than top 30 to top 25 driver with some upside on certain weekends. I am not really sure which tracks that will occur on. Honestly I would just avoid him on the intermediate racetracks for the time being.
Larger Flats will be a big problem for AJ Dinger in 2016. I think he will struggle here more than the intermediate racetracks and probably just as much on the Restrictor plates. In 2015 on the larger flats, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 24.7 average starting position, 23.3 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. At Pocono last season, he had finishes of 38th and 7th. Over the past 4 seasons at Pocono, he have compiled 25.0 average finish, 22.3 average starting position, 21.3 average running position and 65.4 driver rating. In that span of 4 races, he have received two DNFs. Include his latest coming last summer after a run-in with RCR's Ryan Newman. Prior to that, he was running pretty respectably I would say, if I remembered correctly. I want say middle-teens (maybe little worse than that) when he was battling Newman and they made heavy contract. Of course Ryan Newman afterwards made threats that he never followed through with (shocker). In the second race, he finished 7th in that race. When looking at his Pocono record, I am very worried about him. Over his past 7 starts at Pocono, he have finished off lead lap and have finished 33rd or worse in all 5 of those races. Pocono been one of AJ's worst racetracks from a career point of view. Only three tracks does he have worse than 24.5 average finish that he supports at Pocono in 16 career starts. I think he will perfom better at Indy than Pocono. I don't think it will much better, but still he should be a decent high teen to low 20 driver at Indy in 2016. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have compiled 20.5 average finish, 31.0 average starting position, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He finished 23rd and 18th in those two races. His 23rd place finish last season was his career worst in 7 starts dating back to 2008. His best effort came in 2008 in his debut at the track with RPM. Where he finished 10th. In his other 5 starts at the track? He have finished 18th-22nd. His best finish in those 5 races came in 2014 in his debut at this track for JTG in the 47 car. I expect most of his results on the larger flats to come in the low to mid 20s. He might have a outside shot at a high teen finish, but you are probably pushing your luck.
The Plates will be the toughest on AJ Dinger probably. Not saying he won't have some good finishes, but I don't think it likely for him to become a threat on the plates. Last season on the plates, he compiled 23.5 average finish, 27.3 average starting position, 29.0 average running position and 52.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he had 2 top 20 finishes which probably was a above average season for him. He actually had three top 21 finishes, which probably better than most can say. He finished three of four races fairly respectably. Now finishes of 17th, 20th and 21st isn't nothing to get super excited about, but for the season I would take those type of finishes all day long. At Plates, I don't see him being anything special. I think he will either finish in the high to low 20s or wreck out most races. He may sneak out a few finishes though, but that pretty much a given at Daytona and Talladega though.
Alright time to wrap up this preview, I don't think AJ Dinger will be a popular driver in 2016 and personally I believe that what will give him additional fantasy value at certain tracks. I think he will contend for top 5 finishes at road courses, however I don't know if he can finish them out though. He will also be strong on the short tracks and shorter flats as well. He should be a very useful fantasy option at Martinsville, Richmond and New Hampshire. All three tracks are ranked among his best in his two seasons with JTG. I think the intermediate tracks, plates and larger flats will give AJ the most trouble. I expect him to be inconsistent all season long and his equipment will definitely hold him back from becoming a primary fantasy option at his top tracks. His inconsistency will scare most fantasy players away, which should fall in the hands of the risk takers. As I said in the profile in December, I think he will be a very risky fantasy option almost anytime we select him. For him to hold any real fantasy value (outside of the road courses), I think he least needs top 15 to top 20 speed in practice. I believe that will most likely occur on the shorter tracks in length.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
