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Jimmie Johnson enters the 2016 season as one of the titles favorites, but honestly it feels like a lifetime since Jimmie Johnson have been in the championship conversation. These last few season have seen Johnson jump out to a fast start to only stumble into deep slump as the chase approaches. And for reason unlike years past, he cannot break out of them during the chase. Will 2016? I don't think so. I expect Johnson to jump out to a fast start and then cool down as we hit second half of the season. This have re-occurred a few times now, so it no longer a fluke. It a trend.
His strongest type racetrack in 2016 will likely be the intermediate racetracks. Last season at intermediate racetracks, he compiled 16.7 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 98.9 driver rating. Johnson either wrecked out or finished inside the top 5 in 11 of the 17 intermediate racetracks in 2015. He won 5 times in 2015 and all of them came at the intermediate racetracks. One of his best intermediate racetrack is Texas, even though he is super bipolar there. He have 6 times at Texas and 5 of those wins have came in the fall race. Including 4 straight wins in the fall. Yeah he is a stud there in the fall. Over his past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 8.0 average running position, 10.0 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Overall he have won 5 of the previous 7 Texas races. He have finished 9th or better in 10 of the past 12 Texas races. Including 7 Top 2 finishes in that span. In his past 12 Texas races, he have compiled 5.9 average finish (series-best), 7.6 average start (series-best), 7.7 average running position (series-best) and 117.9 driver rating (series-best). Aside from that, he also leads the series in top 5 finishes (7) and top 10 finishes (10). It pretty good to be Jimmie Johnson at Texas. I would consider Cali to be one of his best racetracks on the schedule. His career numbers are overly impressive here. He also been pretty solid recently as well. Over his past two races at Cali, he have compiled 16.5 average finish, 8.5 average start, 5.5 average running position and 117.2 driver rating. He finished 9th last season. He was dominated in 2014 and was by far the class of the field. However you recall that was that screwy goodyear fail race where everyone kept blowing tires. Johnson was a victim late in the race and cost it a easy win. He eventually finished 24th. That is his worse finish ever at Cali. His next worse finish? 16th (twice - 2003 & 2005). Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 9 finishes over his past 13 races at Cali. Including 8 Top 3 finishes from 2007 to 2011 seasons (9 races). Since? He have 3 finishes from 9th-12th place (4 races). Then he had that one poor finish in 2014, but he pretty dominated that day, so hard to go against him at Cali. He may not finish up in the top 5 each race here, but he will have a major threat to cause damage. Honestly his best intermediate racetrack actually could be Dover, considering he have 10 wins there. But most of you knew that already. He also will run well at Charlotte (wrecked out in both races last season), Kansas, Chicago, Atlanta and Las Vegas.
Short tracks will be a major strength for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season at the shorts (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), he compiled 10.8 average finish, 18.2 average start, 13.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Among the three shorts, he probably best at Martinsville. However his numbers have been down these past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 20.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 18.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and 35th. In the spring race, he got wrecked in the early part of the race and then his race just went south from there. Prior to that he finished 32nd in fall 2014. Another Martinsville race, where bad ruined his chances at a decent finishing position. Prior to those poor 35th and 32nd place finishes, he only have once finished outside of the top 12 and that was in his debut back in 2002. Johnson have been nearly unmatchable at a track that he have dominated since the 2004 season. Only a select few can be put in a class with Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville. In 28 races, he have 10 wins with 18 Top 5 finishes and 25 Top 12 finishes. More recently he also been pretty good. 5 of the previous 7 races have ended inside the top 12. Including 4 top 5 finishes since the 2012 season. He had 4 straight top 5 finishes prior to his recent finish slump at Martinsville. I expect him to get back on track in 2016 and I believe will get back in the win column or least the top 5 column.
His second best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 7.3 average finish, 13.8 average start, 13.5 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. He was very good here last season, as he had finishes of 4th and 2nd. He in fact have 3 straight top 4 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. 4 of his previous 7 races (dating back to 2012) have ended inside the top 4. Overall 6 of his previous 10 Bristol races have ended inside the top 4. Yeah he been pretty good at Bristol recently. He been probably at his worst at Richmond among the short tracks. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 14.5 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 9th and 3rd. He have knocked off 3 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2014 season. 6 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 13. Overall 9 of his past 12 races at Richmond have ended inside the top 12. Including 7 of his past 12 Richmond races ending inside the top 10.
Road courses will be a strong spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Over the past two season at Sonoma, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He finished 6th last season, even though he had the best car for most of the race and led 45 laps. A late caution occurred and Jimmie Johnson couldn't hold off a hard charging Kyle Busch and after that he just faded through the field to 6th when the checkers waved. In 2014, he finished 7th. He have knocked off 7 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. 8 of his previous 10 Sonoma races have ended inside the top 10, including a win back in the 2010 season. He been just as at Watkins Glenn. Over his past 4 races at WGI, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 88.5 driver rating. He finished 10th last season and 28th in 2014. He have finished 4 of his past 5 races at WGI inside the top 10. Overall he have finished 7 of his past 9 races inside the top 12. Including 6 of those 9 races ending inside the top 10. So overall yeah Johnson been pretty successful at the road courses and I expect him to continue that success in 2016. Among Nascar elite drivers, I would consider him the most underrated road course racer in the series. He should be least good for top 10 finishes at both Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. More than likely, he will contend for a top 5 finish at least one of these road courses.
Shorter flats tracks aren't exactly Johnson's strongest area, but he certainly can be effective fantasy option when he needs to be. I expect him to be decent in 2016, but he will be better at the type tracks listed above though. Even though he was good last season at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Just not what he once was though. Last season at shorter flats tracks, he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.3 average start, 13.3 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 5th and 11th. In fact he been very consistent here over the years. 5 of the previous 6 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 11. Including 4 Top 6 finishes and 3 of those top 6 finishes have translated into top 5 finishes. Prior to the recent repave, he was dominated at this racetrack. He knocked off 10 straight top 5 finishes with 4 wins in that 10 race span from 2006 to 2011 seasons. He since have came back down to earth, but as we put more laps in at Phoenix, I believe the Johnson of old will resurface. He have found just much of success at New Hampshire, even though he have a few bad finishes lately that misleads. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 18.8 average finish, 5.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. Truthfully his numbers are much better than that. However in July 2014, he wrecked within the first 10 laps and finished 42nd. Excluding that race, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 12.7 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Over 8 of his past 12 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 7. Including 6 of his past 8 races, dating back to the 2012 season. His best finish was 2nd in September 2012. In 28 career races at New Hampshire, Johnson have an stout 10.4 average finish, 3 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes. He almost a lock to finish inside the top 10 when he have trouble free races. Usually he will least contend for a top 10 finish. I expect no different in 2016!
Jimmie Johnson is probably the most underrated plate racer in Nascar, and believe me when I say that! He is very good and have proven to be one of the most reliable fantasy option out there at times. Last season on the plates (4 races), he compiled 6.8 average finish, 5.5 average start, 6.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He been better recently at Daytona than Talladega. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 12.8 average start, 15.0 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 5th last season at Daytona. He finished 5th in the 2014 Daytona 500 as well. He got involved in a early wreck in 2014 summer race though and finished 42nd. In 2013, he won at both Daytona races (season sweep). Over the past 6 Daytona races, he have posted the top 5s (5) and tied with Dale Jr for the most top 10s (5). Only different between the two is Jimmie have had an DNF and Dale have not. Otherwise they been pretty much dead even since 2013 across the board in overall performance. At Talladega, he been more of a hit or miss type driver. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 7.5 average start, 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. He finished 18th and 2nd last season. Last fall I believe he got into Kyle Larson late in the race on a restart and that alter his final finishing position. In 2014, he didn't get a good finish in either race. He had finishes of 24th and 23rd. In 2013, he had finishes of 13th and 5th. So overeall at Talladega, he been so and so. Some good finishes and some poor finishes. Even though he almost always have a strong car at Talladega.
Larger flats should be a solid spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season on the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.0 average finish, 11.7 average running position and 101.7 driver rating. He been better at Indy than Pocono recently, but both are very good tracks for him throughout his career. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 14.5 average finish, 11.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 15th and 14th over the past two seasons. Prior to 2014, he have finished 1st or 2nd in his past 5 of 8 races at Indy(dating back to the 2006 season). He been pretty good throughout his career at Pocono and should be strong there once again in 2016. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, Johnson posted finishes of 6th and 3rd. He finished 39th in August 2014, but finished 6th in June 2014. Overall he have finished 9 of his past 12 Pocono races inside the top 10. Including 4 of his past 6 races ending inside the top 6. He won at Pocono most recently in June 2013.
I like wrapping up my previews with a little summary of what I stated above. I think that is very important to do, as I understand these stats can become very confusing. Anyhow with Johnson in 2016, I expect him to be a major player this upcoming season. I think he will knock off somewhere from 3 to 5 wins and make the chase once again. I expect a majority of those wins to occur on the intermediate racetracks and short tracks. He will also perform very well at the road courses and Daytona. As well as the flats of Pocono, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Indy. However he haven't gone to victory lane at any of those tracks since the 2013 season. Overall Jimmie Johnson is one of the best all-around drivers in the series, he doesn't have an weakness. He just have weak strong points. Which isn't anything to complain about, if you are Jimmie Johnson.
*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheetSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Jimmie Johnson enters the 2016 season as one of the titles favorites, but honestly it feels like a lifetime since Jimmie Johnson have been in the championship conversation. These last few season have seen Johnson jump out to a fast start to only stumble into deep slump as the chase approaches. And for reason unlike years past, he cannot break out of them during the chase. Will 2016? I don't think so. I expect Johnson to jump out to a fast start and then cool down as we hit second half of the season. This have re-occurred a few times now, so it no longer a fluke. It a trend.
His strongest type racetrack in 2016 will likely be the intermediate racetracks. Last season at intermediate racetracks, he compiled 16.7 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 98.9 driver rating. Johnson either wrecked out or finished inside the top 5 in 11 of the 17 intermediate racetracks in 2015. He won 5 times in 2015 and all of them came at the intermediate racetracks. One of his best intermediate racetrack is Texas, even though he is super bipolar there. He have 6 times at Texas and 5 of those wins have came in the fall race. Including 4 straight wins in the fall. Yeah he is a stud there in the fall. Over his past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 8.0 average running position, 10.0 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Overall he have won 5 of the previous 7 Texas races. He have finished 9th or better in 10 of the past 12 Texas races. Including 7 Top 2 finishes in that span. In his past 12 Texas races, he have compiled 5.9 average finish (series-best), 7.6 average start (series-best), 7.7 average running position (series-best) and 117.9 driver rating (series-best). Aside from that, he also leads the series in top 5 finishes (7) and top 10 finishes (10). It pretty good to be Jimmie Johnson at Texas. I would consider Cali to be one of his best racetracks on the schedule. His career numbers are overly impressive here. He also been pretty solid recently as well. Over his past two races at Cali, he have compiled 16.5 average finish, 8.5 average start, 5.5 average running position and 117.2 driver rating. He finished 9th last season. He was dominated in 2014 and was by far the class of the field. However you recall that was that screwy goodyear fail race where everyone kept blowing tires. Johnson was a victim late in the race and cost it a easy win. He eventually finished 24th. That is his worse finish ever at Cali. His next worse finish? 16th (twice - 2003 & 2005). Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 9 finishes over his past 13 races at Cali. Including 8 Top 3 finishes from 2007 to 2011 seasons (9 races). Since? He have 3 finishes from 9th-12th place (4 races). Then he had that one poor finish in 2014, but he pretty dominated that day, so hard to go against him at Cali. He may not finish up in the top 5 each race here, but he will have a major threat to cause damage. Honestly his best intermediate racetrack actually could be Dover, considering he have 10 wins there. But most of you knew that already. He also will run well at Charlotte (wrecked out in both races last season), Kansas, Chicago, Atlanta and Las Vegas.
Short tracks will be a major strength for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season at the shorts (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), he compiled 10.8 average finish, 18.2 average start, 13.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Among the three shorts, he probably best at Martinsville. However his numbers have been down these past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 20.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 18.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and 35th. In the spring race, he got wrecked in the early part of the race and then his race just went south from there. Prior to that he finished 32nd in fall 2014. Another Martinsville race, where bad ruined his chances at a decent finishing position. Prior to those poor 35th and 32nd place finishes, he only have once finished outside of the top 12 and that was in his debut back in 2002. Johnson have been nearly unmatchable at a track that he have dominated since the 2004 season. Only a select few can be put in a class with Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville. In 28 races, he have 10 wins with 18 Top 5 finishes and 25 Top 12 finishes. More recently he also been pretty good. 5 of the previous 7 races have ended inside the top 12. Including 4 top 5 finishes since the 2012 season. He had 4 straight top 5 finishes prior to his recent finish slump at Martinsville. I expect him to get back on track in 2016 and I believe will get back in the win column or least the top 5 column.
His second best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 7.3 average finish, 13.8 average start, 13.5 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. He was very good here last season, as he had finishes of 4th and 2nd. He in fact have 3 straight top 4 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. 4 of his previous 7 races (dating back to 2012) have ended inside the top 4. Overall 6 of his previous 10 Bristol races have ended inside the top 4. Yeah he been pretty good at Bristol recently. He been probably at his worst at Richmond among the short tracks. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 14.5 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 9th and 3rd. He have knocked off 3 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2014 season. 6 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 13. Overall 9 of his past 12 races at Richmond have ended inside the top 12. Including 7 of his past 12 Richmond races ending inside the top 10.
Road courses will be a strong spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Over the past two season at Sonoma, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He finished 6th last season, even though he had the best car for most of the race and led 45 laps. A late caution occurred and Jimmie Johnson couldn't hold off a hard charging Kyle Busch and after that he just faded through the field to 6th when the checkers waved. In 2014, he finished 7th. He have knocked off 7 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. 8 of his previous 10 Sonoma races have ended inside the top 10, including a win back in the 2010 season. He been just as at Watkins Glenn. Over his past 4 races at WGI, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 88.5 driver rating. He finished 10th last season and 28th in 2014. He have finished 4 of his past 5 races at WGI inside the top 10. Overall he have finished 7 of his past 9 races inside the top 12. Including 6 of those 9 races ending inside the top 10. So overall yeah Johnson been pretty successful at the road courses and I expect him to continue that success in 2016. Among Nascar elite drivers, I would consider him the most underrated road course racer in the series. He should be least good for top 10 finishes at both Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. More than likely, he will contend for a top 5 finish at least one of these road courses.
Shorter flats tracks aren't exactly Johnson's strongest area, but he certainly can be effective fantasy option when he needs to be. I expect him to be decent in 2016, but he will be better at the type tracks listed above though. Even though he was good last season at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Just not what he once was though. Last season at shorter flats tracks, he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.3 average start, 13.3 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 5th and 11th. In fact he been very consistent here over the years. 5 of the previous 6 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 11. Including 4 Top 6 finishes and 3 of those top 6 finishes have translated into top 5 finishes. Prior to the recent repave, he was dominated at this racetrack. He knocked off 10 straight top 5 finishes with 4 wins in that 10 race span from 2006 to 2011 seasons. He since have came back down to earth, but as we put more laps in at Phoenix, I believe the Johnson of old will resurface. He have found just much of success at New Hampshire, even though he have a few bad finishes lately that misleads. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 18.8 average finish, 5.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. Truthfully his numbers are much better than that. However in July 2014, he wrecked within the first 10 laps and finished 42nd. Excluding that race, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 12.7 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Over 8 of his past 12 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 7. Including 6 of his past 8 races, dating back to the 2012 season. His best finish was 2nd in September 2012. In 28 career races at New Hampshire, Johnson have an stout 10.4 average finish, 3 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes. He almost a lock to finish inside the top 10 when he have trouble free races. Usually he will least contend for a top 10 finish. I expect no different in 2016!
Jimmie Johnson is probably the most underrated plate racer in Nascar, and believe me when I say that! He is very good and have proven to be one of the most reliable fantasy option out there at times. Last season on the plates (4 races), he compiled 6.8 average finish, 5.5 average start, 6.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He been better recently at Daytona than Talladega. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 12.8 average start, 15.0 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 5th last season at Daytona. He finished 5th in the 2014 Daytona 500 as well. He got involved in a early wreck in 2014 summer race though and finished 42nd. In 2013, he won at both Daytona races (season sweep). Over the past 6 Daytona races, he have posted the top 5s (5) and tied with Dale Jr for the most top 10s (5). Only different between the two is Jimmie have had an DNF and Dale have not. Otherwise they been pretty much dead even since 2013 across the board in overall performance. At Talladega, he been more of a hit or miss type driver. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 7.5 average start, 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. He finished 18th and 2nd last season. Last fall I believe he got into Kyle Larson late in the race on a restart and that alter his final finishing position. In 2014, he didn't get a good finish in either race. He had finishes of 24th and 23rd. In 2013, he had finishes of 13th and 5th. So overeall at Talladega, he been so and so. Some good finishes and some poor finishes. Even though he almost always have a strong car at Talladega.
Larger flats should be a solid spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season on the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.0 average finish, 11.7 average running position and 101.7 driver rating. He been better at Indy than Pocono recently, but both are very good tracks for him throughout his career. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 14.5 average finish, 11.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 15th and 14th over the past two seasons. Prior to 2014, he have finished 1st or 2nd in his past 5 of 8 races at Indy(dating back to the 2006 season). He been pretty good throughout his career at Pocono and should be strong there once again in 2016. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, Johnson posted finishes of 6th and 3rd. He finished 39th in August 2014, but finished 6th in June 2014. Overall he have finished 9 of his past 12 Pocono races inside the top 10. Including 4 of his past 6 races ending inside the top 6. He won at Pocono most recently in June 2013.
I like wrapping up my previews with a little summary of what I stated above. I think that is very important to do, as I understand these stats can become very confusing. Anyhow with Johnson in 2016, I expect him to be a major player this upcoming season. I think he will knock off somewhere from 3 to 5 wins and make the chase once again. I expect a majority of those wins to occur on the intermediate racetracks and short tracks. He will also perform very well at the road courses and Daytona. As well as the flats of Pocono, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Indy. However he haven't gone to victory lane at any of those tracks since the 2013 season. Overall Jimmie Johnson is one of the best all-around drivers in the series, he doesn't have an weakness. He just have weak strong points. Which isn't anything to complain about, if you are Jimmie Johnson.
*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheetSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
