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8 years ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr joined HMS back in 2008. And 5 years ago, I would have said there no way he was ready to step up and become a elite talent in the HMS organization. But you know what at start of the 2012 season, something changed about Dale Jr and ever since he been one of the consistent drivers in the series. He topped 10 Top 5s and 20 Top 10s in his past 4 seasons at HMS and posting 11.7 average finish over his past 144 races. That's pretty damn solid! He will be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks, restrictor plates, short tracks and flat tracks. He will also perform well at road courses, which is something I didn't think I would ever see. Simply put, Dale Jr is a complete driver. He will run well just about at any track and have top 5 upside on a weekly basis. However he more often than not, should be counted on for a top 10 finish. If you are looking for a safe consistent choice, then Dale Jr is your guy!
Restrictor Plates will be Junior's strongest type racetrack. It no secret that Dale Jr is one of Nascar's most talented plate racers and always have the speed to back it up too. Rarely do we go to the superspeedways and not hear about the driver of the #88 car. He probably a lock to start on every fantasy team at the Daytona 500. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have supported 4.8 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 110.0 driver rating. He have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the past 4 of the last 5 Daytona 500 races and added two more top 4 finishes to that total during the summer races as well since the 2010 season. Yeah he pretty damn good at Daytona. However he haven't been as strong at Talladega. Which will probably surprise some people. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. He finished 1st and 2nd last season which was the first time since the 2011 season that he have had posted a better average finish at Talladega than Daytona. In his previous 14 races (dating back to the 2008 season - debut season with HMS), he have managed 5 Top 10 finishes (3 top 5s) and 9 Top 20 finishes total. Overall he been a little bit inconsistent, however you cannot argue with his major upside if you pick him. As we saw last season, it don't take much for Dale Jr to finish strong at a plate race.
The intermediate tracks have became a real strong spot for Dale Jr over the past few seasons and he now considered a primary driver at these venues. He was strong last season at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 Intermediate races (minus Homestead race - finished 40th), he supported 9.2 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He was very strong early in the season at the intermediate racetracks in 2015. He started off the season with 6 straight top 6 finishes, including 5 Top 3 finishes. Then he finished 14th at Dover. He followed that up with 2nd at Michigan, 20th at Kentucky and 10th at Michigan again. He start to see him down trending at that point in terms of fantasy value as was becoming a little inconsistent. But then he follows that up with 8th, 12th and 3rd at Darlington, Chicago and Dover. Of course he then ends the season with 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20 at Kansas, Charlotte and Homestead. Overall a stout 2015 season by Dale Jr on the intermediate tracks. I would consider Michigan, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas his best intermediate racetracks on the schedule. Especially Michigan and Atlanta. I would call them two his best two racetracks. Even though he also been pretty strong at Las Vegas the past two seasons.
Large Flat racetracks have been very kind to him recently and that shouldn't change in 2016 either. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 14.7 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. He been better at Pocono than Indy recently though. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He finished 11th last June, but got damaged halfway through the race and had to battle back to a respectable finish. Or otherwise his average finish would have been even better. His other three finishes over the past 2 season have ended in either 1st or 4th. He swept the 2014 races. Overall he been pretty impressive since the 2011 season at Pocono. Over the previous 10 Pocono races (Dating back to the 2011 season), he have posted 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in that 10 race stench of races. Yeah he been pretty stout at Pocono and should continue his success in the 2016 season at the large flat racetrack. Indy haven't been a bad track for Dale Jr, but I wouldn't call it a great one either though. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He finished 22nd last season at Indy. Prior to that, he had reeled off 3 straight top 9 finishes at Indy dating back to the 2012 season. Prior to that three-race stench, he had only 2 Top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races dating back to his track record in 2000.
Dale Jr should be pretty solid on short flat racetracks. Last season at the short flat racetracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he supported 18.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Over the previous 2 seasons (8 races), he have supported 12.9 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.4 driver rating. I would say he is better at New Hampshire than Phoenix. Even though he is pretty good at Phoenix too. He finished 43rd and 1st last season. Prior to his Phoenix wreck last spring, he had reeled off 4 straight top 8 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 starts since coming to HMS in 2008. He been pretty strong, I would say at New Hampshire recently, even though he had that misleading 25th in the last season's chase. Over the previous 4 New Hampshire races, he have supported 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Minus his 25th-place finish last fall, he have reeled 11 straight top 17 finishes. Including 4 straight top 10 finishes. Overall he have finished 8 of the previous 14 races inside the top 10. 12 of the previous 15 races inside the top 15.
Short tracks will be another type racetrack that Dale Jr performs pretty well at! I expect him to be solid driver on the short tracks once again in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 14.0 average finish with 18.2 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. I would say Martinsvlle have been his best racetrack recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. He have been pretty solid at Martinsville recently. 3 top 5 finishes in his previous 4 races. He lone-top 5 was 36th last spring, but that was because of a wreck and finished 47 laps down. He been pretty impressive since the 2010 season at Martinsville. In that 11-race stench, he have managed 8 Top 8 finishes, with five of those races ending inside the top 4. He won in fall of 2014 for though of you that don't remember. That marked his first career win at the short track. He also been pretty solid at Richmond. Over the previous 4 races at Richmond, he have supported 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He finished 14th and 5th last season at Richmond. Overall he have reeled off 8 straight top 14 finishes. Including 5 top 12 finishes and 4 of those 5 races have ending inside the top 10. He probably been at his worst at Bristol over the past two seasons. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.0 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 77.0 driver rating. He had finishes of 9th and 16th last season. 4 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 16. Overall he have reeled off 12 Top 16 finishes ins his previous 14 attempts. In that span, he have knocked off 7 Top 12 finishes and 10 Top 15 finishes.
Road course were once considered bad racetracks for Dale Jr and from the general public, he may still be viewed that way. However the stats over the past two seasons say otherwise. At Sonoma over previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 5.0 average finish (best-average finish in the series) with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Overall he have reeled off 3 straight top 12 finishes at Sonoma dating back to 2013 season. 4 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 12th or better. Going back further, he have knocked 5 Top 12 finishes in his previous 8 races, since start of the 2008 season. He haven't quite as good at Watkins Glenn over the past few seasons. Over the previous 2 Watkins Glenn races, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. He have finished 11th in back-to-back races at WGI. Overall he have knocked off 3 Top 15 finishes in his previous 5 road courses races at WGI. However his last top 10 was all the way back in 2005, where he finished 10th place. He been close to breaking that top 10 mark though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
8 years ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr joined HMS back in 2008. And 5 years ago, I would have said there no way he was ready to step up and become a elite talent in the HMS organization. But you know what at start of the 2012 season, something changed about Dale Jr and ever since he been one of the consistent drivers in the series. He topped 10 Top 5s and 20 Top 10s in his past 4 seasons at HMS and posting 11.7 average finish over his past 144 races. That's pretty damn solid! He will be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks, restrictor plates, short tracks and flat tracks. He will also perform well at road courses, which is something I didn't think I would ever see. Simply put, Dale Jr is a complete driver. He will run well just about at any track and have top 5 upside on a weekly basis. However he more often than not, should be counted on for a top 10 finish. If you are looking for a safe consistent choice, then Dale Jr is your guy!
Restrictor Plates will be Junior's strongest type racetrack. It no secret that Dale Jr is one of Nascar's most talented plate racers and always have the speed to back it up too. Rarely do we go to the superspeedways and not hear about the driver of the #88 car. He probably a lock to start on every fantasy team at the Daytona 500. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have supported 4.8 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 110.0 driver rating. He have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the past 4 of the last 5 Daytona 500 races and added two more top 4 finishes to that total during the summer races as well since the 2010 season. Yeah he pretty damn good at Daytona. However he haven't been as strong at Talladega. Which will probably surprise some people. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. He finished 1st and 2nd last season which was the first time since the 2011 season that he have had posted a better average finish at Talladega than Daytona. In his previous 14 races (dating back to the 2008 season - debut season with HMS), he have managed 5 Top 10 finishes (3 top 5s) and 9 Top 20 finishes total. Overall he been a little bit inconsistent, however you cannot argue with his major upside if you pick him. As we saw last season, it don't take much for Dale Jr to finish strong at a plate race.
The intermediate tracks have became a real strong spot for Dale Jr over the past few seasons and he now considered a primary driver at these venues. He was strong last season at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 Intermediate races (minus Homestead race - finished 40th), he supported 9.2 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He was very strong early in the season at the intermediate racetracks in 2015. He started off the season with 6 straight top 6 finishes, including 5 Top 3 finishes. Then he finished 14th at Dover. He followed that up with 2nd at Michigan, 20th at Kentucky and 10th at Michigan again. He start to see him down trending at that point in terms of fantasy value as was becoming a little inconsistent. But then he follows that up with 8th, 12th and 3rd at Darlington, Chicago and Dover. Of course he then ends the season with 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20 at Kansas, Charlotte and Homestead. Overall a stout 2015 season by Dale Jr on the intermediate tracks. I would consider Michigan, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas his best intermediate racetracks on the schedule. Especially Michigan and Atlanta. I would call them two his best two racetracks. Even though he also been pretty strong at Las Vegas the past two seasons.
Large Flat racetracks have been very kind to him recently and that shouldn't change in 2016 either. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 14.7 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. He been better at Pocono than Indy recently though. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He finished 11th last June, but got damaged halfway through the race and had to battle back to a respectable finish. Or otherwise his average finish would have been even better. His other three finishes over the past 2 season have ended in either 1st or 4th. He swept the 2014 races. Overall he been pretty impressive since the 2011 season at Pocono. Over the previous 10 Pocono races (Dating back to the 2011 season), he have posted 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in that 10 race stench of races. Yeah he been pretty stout at Pocono and should continue his success in the 2016 season at the large flat racetrack. Indy haven't been a bad track for Dale Jr, but I wouldn't call it a great one either though. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He finished 22nd last season at Indy. Prior to that, he had reeled off 3 straight top 9 finishes at Indy dating back to the 2012 season. Prior to that three-race stench, he had only 2 Top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races dating back to his track record in 2000.
Dale Jr should be pretty solid on short flat racetracks. Last season at the short flat racetracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he supported 18.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Over the previous 2 seasons (8 races), he have supported 12.9 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.4 driver rating. I would say he is better at New Hampshire than Phoenix. Even though he is pretty good at Phoenix too. He finished 43rd and 1st last season. Prior to his Phoenix wreck last spring, he had reeled off 4 straight top 8 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 starts since coming to HMS in 2008. He been pretty strong, I would say at New Hampshire recently, even though he had that misleading 25th in the last season's chase. Over the previous 4 New Hampshire races, he have supported 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Minus his 25th-place finish last fall, he have reeled 11 straight top 17 finishes. Including 4 straight top 10 finishes. Overall he have finished 8 of the previous 14 races inside the top 10. 12 of the previous 15 races inside the top 15.
Short tracks will be another type racetrack that Dale Jr performs pretty well at! I expect him to be solid driver on the short tracks once again in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 14.0 average finish with 18.2 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. I would say Martinsvlle have been his best racetrack recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. He have been pretty solid at Martinsville recently. 3 top 5 finishes in his previous 4 races. He lone-top 5 was 36th last spring, but that was because of a wreck and finished 47 laps down. He been pretty impressive since the 2010 season at Martinsville. In that 11-race stench, he have managed 8 Top 8 finishes, with five of those races ending inside the top 4. He won in fall of 2014 for though of you that don't remember. That marked his first career win at the short track. He also been pretty solid at Richmond. Over the previous 4 races at Richmond, he have supported 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He finished 14th and 5th last season at Richmond. Overall he have reeled off 8 straight top 14 finishes. Including 5 top 12 finishes and 4 of those 5 races have ending inside the top 10. He probably been at his worst at Bristol over the past two seasons. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.0 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 77.0 driver rating. He had finishes of 9th and 16th last season. 4 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 16. Overall he have reeled off 12 Top 16 finishes ins his previous 14 attempts. In that span, he have knocked off 7 Top 12 finishes and 10 Top 15 finishes.
Road course were once considered bad racetracks for Dale Jr and from the general public, he may still be viewed that way. However the stats over the past two seasons say otherwise. At Sonoma over previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 5.0 average finish (best-average finish in the series) with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Overall he have reeled off 3 straight top 12 finishes at Sonoma dating back to 2013 season. 4 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 12th or better. Going back further, he have knocked 5 Top 12 finishes in his previous 8 races, since start of the 2008 season. He haven't quite as good at Watkins Glenn over the past few seasons. Over the previous 2 Watkins Glenn races, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. He have finished 11th in back-to-back races at WGI. Overall he have knocked off 3 Top 15 finishes in his previous 5 road courses races at WGI. However his last top 10 was all the way back in 2005, where he finished 10th place. He been close to breaking that top 10 mark though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
